Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0370; (P) 1.0392; (R1) 1.0414; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation from 1.0365 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.0511 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0365 will resume larger down trend from 1.1149 to 161.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0200 next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is now extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, break of 1.0694 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.

Technical analysis

The RSI is below level 50.

The Stochastics left the overbought zone and headed downwards to level 50.

Most likely scenario – SELL

Target prices: 1,786.92 1,782.14

Alternative scenario – BUY

Target prices: 1,795.28 1,800.35

Key levels

Support 1,786.92 1,782.14

Resistance 1,795.28 1,800.35

The Dow Jones retreated as major countries imposed curfews ahead of the holiday season. Following a double top under 36200, a drop below 35450 has broken buyers’ attempt to resume the rally.

The index is struggling to hold above the base of the December recovery (34800) which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 34000.

Buyers will need to lift 35620 before they could attract followers’ attention. 34000 is the daily support to safeguard the bullish bias in the medium-term.

Silver drops as the US dollar inched higher across the board. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off.

Then the recent surge has broken above multiple levels of resistance, prompting the short side to cover some of their bets. However, the bulls may need to defend their gains after the initial push overextended.

The demand zone between last September’s low (21.40) and 21.80 is critical in keeping the rebound valid. 22.65 is now a fresh resistance before a full-blown recovery could materialize.

The Australian dollar softens over dovish RBA meeting minutes. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near the 30-day moving average (0.7220).

On the hourly chart, a bearish MA cross and a break below 0.7100 indicate weakness in the latest rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a brief rally, but the bears may sell into strength around 0.7160.

0.7050 at the base of the initial breakout is an important support. A lack of bids could send the Aussie to 0.6990 with the reversal attempt at stake.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1240; (P) 1.1272; (R1) 1.1309; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 1.1382 resistance holds. Break of 1.1185 will resume larger decline from 1.2348. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1663 from 1.1908 at 1.0934. On the upside, firm break of 1.1382 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.1186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1426).

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3173; (P) 1.3209; (R1) 1.3245; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. Fall from 1.4248 should resume and target 161.8% projection of 1.4248 to 1.3570 from 1.3833 at 1.2736. On the upside, , break of 1.3372 will resume the rise from 1.3158 to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3428).

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed at 1.4248, after rejection by 1.4376 long term resistance. That will revive some medium term bearishness and and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. However, strong rebound from current level will revive argue that up trend from 1.1409 is still in progress, and probably ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9188; (P) 0.9220; (R1) 0.9246; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.9156 will target 0.9084 support. Firm break there should confirm that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed, and suggests that fall from 0.9471 is resuming. Deeper decline would be seen through 0.8925. On the upside, break of 0.9293 will suggest that the pull back from 0.9372 is finished. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.9372.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.40; (P) 113.56; (R1) 113.80; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 112.52 will resume the fall from 115.51, as a correction to up trend from 102.57, and target 100% projection of 115.51 to 112.52 from 114.26 at 111.27. On the upside, above 114.26 will target a test on 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7084; (P) 0.7109; (R1) 0.7134; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Sustained break there will carry larger bearish implication, and resume larger down trend from 0.8006. On the upside, above 0.7223 and sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 0.7239) will be the first sign of major bottoming and bring stronger rise to 0.7555 resistance.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.