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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3373; (P) 1.3464; (R1) 1.3516; More...

With 1.3554 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside. Current decline from 1.4248 should target 1.3163 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3554 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 is at least a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low). Such correction could extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 before completion. However, considering the rejection by 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high), sustained trading below 1.3164 will argue that it's indeed a bearish trend reversal and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. Nevertheless, break of 1.3912 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and target 1.4248/4376 resistance zone again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1560; (P) 1.1625; (R1) 1.1661; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. It's now in a deeper correction to whole rise from 1.0634. Next target is 1.1289 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.1667 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1908 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that rise from 1.0635 (2020 low) has completed at 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Note also that the firm break of 55 week EMA (1.1830) also carries medium term bearish implication. Firm break of 1.1289 will pave the way to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

As Dollar is digesting this week's yield supported rally today, selling focus is turning to Euro, in particular in crosses. Meanwhile, firmer overall risk sentiment is supporting commodity currencies and Sterling, with Aussie being the stronger one. Yen and Swiss Franc are generally softer on stable risk sentiment.

Technically, as Euro turns weaker, we'll pay attention to 1.0811 temporary low in EUR/CHF. Break there will resume the fall form 1.0936 towards 1.0694 low. Also, break of 129.36 minor support in EUR/JPY will align the outlook with GBP/JPY. That is, rebound from 127.91 has completed at 130.45 and deeper fall could be seen back to retest 127.91 low. We'd see if Euro's selloff would accelerate and spread.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.20%. DAX is down -0.20%. CAC is up 0.05%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.021 at -0.187. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.31%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.36%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.90%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.40%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0008 to 0.070.

US initial jobless claims rose to 362k, above expectation

US initial jobless claims rose 11k to 262k in the week ending September 25, above expectation of 321k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4k to 340k.

Continuing claims dropped -18k to 2802 in the week ending September 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -750 to 2797k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

US Q2 GDP growth finalized at 6.7% annualized

US Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 6.7% annualized, revised up from 6.6%. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and private inventory investment were partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.

Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% in Aug, EU dropped to 6.8%

Eurozone unemployment rate dropped from 7.6% to 7.5% in August, versus expectation of 7.6%. EU unemployment rate dropped from 6.9% to 6.8%.

Eurostat estimates that 14.469 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.162 million in the euro area, were unemployed in August 2021. Compared with July 2021, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 224 000 in the EU and by 261 000 in the euro area.

Also released, Germany unemployment dropped -30k in September, versus expectation of -40k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. Germany CPI accelerated to 4.1% yoy in September, above expectation of 3.9% yoy. Italy unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.3%. France consumer spending rose 1.0% mom in August, versus expectation of 0.1% mom.

Swiss KOF dropped to 110.6 in Sep, slowdown likely to continue in coming months

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped from 113.5 to 110.6 in September, slightly above expectation of 110.3. That's the fourth decline in a row. The index remains above its long-term average, but the slowing in recovery is "likely to continue in the coming months".

KOF also said: "The recurring decline is primarily attributable to bundles of indicators concerning foreign demand. Indicators of the manufacturing sector send an additional negative signal, followed by indicators of the economic sector other services. By contrast, indicators from the finance and insurance sector are providing slightly positive impulses."

UK Q2 GDP growth finalized at 5.5% qoq, still -3.3% below pre-pandemic level

UK Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 5.5% qoq, revised up from 4.8% qoq. GDP remained -3.3% below the pre-pandemic level at Q4 2019.

In output terms, the largest contributors to this increase were from wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, education and human health, and social work activities. There were increases in all main components of expenditure, with the largest contribution from household consumption.

Also from UK, current account deficit narrowed to GBP -8.6B in Q2.

BoJ Kuroda: Timing and pace of recovery in consumption remains highly uncertain

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated in a speech that "consumption is expected to pick up if further progress in vaccinations allow society to curb infections, while resuming economic activity."

"But the timing and pace of recovery in consumption remains highly uncertain and could change depending on how the pandemic unfolds," he added.

"We will scrutinise the impact of the pandemic on the economy and take additional easing steps without hesitation if needed," he pledged again.

Japan industrial production dropped -3.2% mom in Aug, auto production shrank

Japan industrial production dropped -3.2% mom in August, worse than expectation of -0.5% mom. Production in auto dropped -15.2% mom as affected by global semiconductor shortage and factory shutdowns in Southeast Asia. Output of electrical machinery and information and communication electronics equipment also dropped -10.6% mom.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry downgraded the assessment of industrial production, and said recovery "has paused. Nevertheless, based on a poll of manufacturers, production is expected to rise 0.2% mom in September and then 6.8% mom in October.

Also released, retail sales dropped -3.2% yoy in August, versus expectation of -1.3% yoy. That's the first decline in six months. Housing starts rose 7.5% yoy in August, versus expectation of 9.6% yoy.

China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 50, pandemic impacts demand, supply and circulation

China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.2 to 50.0 in September, above expectation of 49.6. Caixin said new orders returned to growth. Output fell at softer pace. Inflation pressures picked up amid material shortages.

Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: "On the one hand, the epidemic continued to impact demand, supply, and circulation in the manufacturing sector. The state of the epidemic overseas and the shortage of shipping capacity also dragged down total demand. Epidemic control measures have clearly impacted the logistics industry."

Also released, the official NBS PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.1 to 49.6 in September, versus expectation of 50.2. PMI Non-Manufacturing rose from 47.5 to 53.2, above expectation of 50.8.

New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -7.2, activity dropped to 18.2

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose to -7.2 in September, up from August's -14.5. Own Activity Outlook dropped to 18.2, down from 20.2. Looking at some details, export intentions dropped from 8.4 to 7.4. Investment intentions dropped from 15.4 to 9.2. Cost expectations dropped from 85.0 to 84.2. Employment intentions dropped from 17.9 to 14.1. Inflation expectations ticked down from 3.06% to 3.02%.

ANZ said: "The Auckland COVID outbreak drags on but businesses so far appear to be keeping their eyes on the prize. Spending has already bounced back quite a lot, particularly outside Auckland, and experience has shown momentum tends to recover quickly. In that context, interest rate increases may well prove more of a challenge. The housing market is vulnerable, with headwinds gathering, and there's no question the housing market and construction more generally have been key drivers of growth over the past 18 months – for what's definitely been a mix of better and worse.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1560; (P) 1.1625; (R1) 1.1661; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. It's now in a deeper correction to whole rise from 1.0634. Next target is 1.1289 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.1667 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1908 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that rise from 1.0635 (2020 low) has completed at 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Note also that the firm break of 55 week EMA (1.1830) also carries medium term bearish implication. Firm break of 1.1289 will pave the way to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Economic Indicators Update

US Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 6.7% annualized, revised up from 6.6%. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and private inventory investment were partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.

Full release here.

US initial jobless claims rose 11k to 362k in the week ending September 25, above expectation of 321k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4k to 340k.

Continuing claims dropped -18k to 2802 in the week ending September 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -750 to 2797k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

Full release here.

The Australian dollar has steadied in the Thursday session. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7188, up 0.19% on the day.

Building Permits jumps

The Australian dollar is coming off a nasty slide of 1.5% since Tuesday, but has stabilized after some decent Australian numbers. Building Permits jumped 6.8% MoM in August, ending a four-month decline, while Private Sector Credit rose 0.6% MoM. As well, the NSW Premier’s announcement that it will ease restrictions on vaccinated persons earlier than expected has improved sentiment towards the Australian dollar.

Still, the economic growth has been stunted by the prolonged Covid lockdowns, and this was reflected in Retail Sales for August, which declined 1.7% MoM, a fifth consecutive decline. It’s widely expected that GDP for the third quarter will show negative growth, which would be bad news for the Aussie.

With the financial markets pricing in a Fed taper, most likely in December, the US dollar has made strong inroads against the major currencies. The dollar index is at 94.47, a shade below its 52-week high of 94.50, and 10-year Treasury yields are at their highest levels since June. These moves reflect the rapidly growing view that higher inflation is here to stay, at least for some time.

Fed Chair Powell grudgingly acknowledged this in his congressional testimony earlier this week, stating that high inflation could last longer than anticipated. It seems clear that Powell will have to tighten policy in order to prevent inflation rising even further, and potentially overheating the economy. This week, Fed President Bullard said that the Fed might need two rate hikes in 2022 in order to combat inflation, and other Fed members have urged the Fed to start tapering shortly. If we here additional hawkish comments from Fed members in the coming days and weeks, the US dollar should continue to head to higher ground.

AUD/USD Technical

• 0.7215 is under pressure in resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.7266
• The pair has support at 0.7170. Below, there is support at 0.7119

Key Highlights

• NZD/USD started a major decline below the 0.7000 support.
• It broke a declining channel with support near 0.6950 on the 4-hours chart.
• EUR/USD declined below 1.1650, and GBP/USD accelerated lower towards 1.3400.
• The US Gross Domestic Product could grow 6.6% in Q2 2021.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar started a major decline from well above 0.7050 against the US Dollar. NZD/USD traded below 0.7000 to enter a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, there was a break below a declining channel with support near 0.6950. The pair settled below the 0.6950 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

The pair even traded below the 0.6900 support zone. It seems like the pair might continue to move down below 0.6850. The next key support is near 0.6800, below which the pair may possibly dive towards 0.6720.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 0.6920 level. The first major resistance is near 0.6950, above which NZD/USD could rise towards the main 0.7000 hurdle (the recent breakdown zone).

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair declined heavily and even traded below 1.1650. Similarly, GBP/USD declined below the 1.3500 support zone.

Economic Releases

• UK GDP for Q2 2021 (QoQ) - Forecast -1.5%, versus +4.8% previous.
• Germany’s Unemployment Change for April 2021 - Forecast -33K, versus -53K previous.
• Germany’s Unemployment Rate for April 2021 – Forecast 5.6%, versus 5.5% previous.
• German Consumer Price Index for Sep 2021 (YoY) (Prelim) – Forecast +3.9%, versus +3.9% previous.
• German Consumer Price Index for Sep 2021 (MoM) (Prelim) – Forecast +0.1%, versus 0% previous.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 335K, versus 351K previous.
• US Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2021 – Forecast 6.6% versus previous 6.6%.

Gold is bearish below 1750. The price is below the important level 1750 but getting close to another support.

The support 1712-1723 is critical. If the price breaks below 1712 we should see a retest of 1675. Bulls might try to bring the price back up. This could create another selling opportunity. 1750-68 is the selling zone on a pullback. The main target is 1675 if 1712 breaks lower.

• UK Q2 Final GDP revised higher but concerns on growth front as furlough scheme ends today (Sept 30th). EU region inflation continued its update as central bankers reiterate view move was transitory (session saw German States, France and Italian CPI readings).
• Focus on US infrastructure vote in House.

Asia

• Japan Aug Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -3.2% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.3% v 12.1%e.
• Japan Aug Retail Sales M/M: -4.1% v -1.7%e ; Y/Y: -3.2% v -1.0%e.
• China Sept Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official) registered it 1st contraction in 18 months (49.6 v 50.0e).
• China Sept Caixin PMI Manufacturing moved out of contraction (50.0 v 49.5e).
• China PBoC again injects liquidity into system via 14-day Reverse Repo (**Note: 10th straight session of PBoC net liquidity injection).

Europe

• BOE Gov Bailey stated that the rate of recovery had slowed over recent months, and that slowing was continuing. GDP would not recover to pre-pandemic levels until early next year.
• UK’s furlough scheme to finish on Sept 30th (today). Some badly hit sectors seek continued support.
• G7 finance ministers said to reach a common understanding on some important remaining issues before OECD and G20 tax meetings during week of Oct 4th.

Americas

• Sen Maj Leader Schumer (D-NY) says he has agreement with Republicans for stopgap funding bill vote on Thursday (Sept 30th). Senate to hold several amendment votes before they vote on the continuing resolution.
• House Speaker Pelosi stated that it planned to have a vote on Thursday for Infrastructure Bill.
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that Treasury to run out of cash along with special measures to avoid a federal payments default by late October or early November.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.71% at 458.24, FTSE +0.69% at 7,157.05, DAX +0.11% at 15,382.75, CAC-40 +0.61% at 6,600.96, IBEX-35 +0.37% at 8,913.50, FTSE MIB +0.49% at 25,862.00, SMI +0.85% at 11,726.91, S&P 500 Futures +0.71%].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open higher across the board but moderated gains as the session progressed; better performing sectors include technology and materials; while consumer discretionary and industrials sectors among the underperformers; oil and gas subsector under pressure following drop in crude prices; Eutelsat rejects offer from Drahi; Sinch acquires Pathwire; Playtech to sell its financial trading division; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include McCormick, CarMax and Bed Bath and Beyond.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: H&M [HMB.SE] +1% (earnings), boohoo.com [BOO.UK] -11% (earnings).
• Healthcare: Roche [ROG.CH] +1.5% (trial data).
• Industrials: Diageo [DGE.UK] +3% (trading update), Sulzer [SUN.CH] -34% (spin-off).
• Technology: Sinch [SINCH.SE] +5% (acquisition; share issue).
• Telecom: Eutelsat [ETL.FR] +17% (rejected offer).

Speakers

• ECB's Centeno (Portugal) stated that inflation to return to level below 2% in 2022.
• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Sept Minutes noted that inflation was unexpectedly high in recent months due to energy prices. Needed to look through transitory inflationary factors. Few members did discuss rate path with a rise at the end of forecast horizon.
• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves noted in the Sept Minutes that the Repo Rate needed to remain at zero for a while; too early to change course. Inflation overshoot of 2% target was not a problem and had effective tools if inflation did not fall back.
• Ireland Fin Min Donohoe (Eurogroup chief) stated that the upcoming OECD meeting on Oct 8th would be critical.
• UK Junior Fin Min Clark stated that was impossible to estimate how many people would lose their jobs after Furlough scheme ended (**Reminder: UK’s furlough scheme to finish on Sept 30th (today).
• Japanese Incoming PM Kishida said to appoint Hagiuda as new Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary.
• BOJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates overall economic assessment that economy is trending upwards but remains in a severe state. Reiterated view that CPI to gradually rise as economy improved and fading effects from lower mobile phone fees. Reiterated stance that would not hesitate to ease further if needed.
• Philippines Central Bank (BSP) Gov Diokno reiterated that CPI to be at upper end of range in 2021; reiterated stance that could adjust monetary policy tools if needed.
• Thailand Central Bank reiterated view to closely watch the THB currency (Baht) so it did not hamper the economic recovery.
• China Industry Ministry (MIIT) stated that it saw pressure to stabilize industrial economic growth.

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD holding onto its recent gains as FED looked poised to begin withdrawal of stimulus soon. Greenback also aided via demand for safe havens as recent Chinese data put more wrinkles into the global recovery.
• GBP managed to recover from session lows after Q2 Final GDP was revised higher. Recent cautious comments from BOE Gov Bailey put some headwinds into the data. Dealers noted that monthly GDP data showed the overall recovery essentially stalled in July, GBP/USD remained below the pivotal 1.36 level.
• EUR/USD hovered around the 1.16 level in the session despite another uptick in European inflation data. ECB speak has been vocal in claiming the recent up-tick in inflation was transitory.
• USD/JPY probing a key resistance level of 112 as higher US bond yield providing the dollar with tailwinds.

Economic data

• (NL) Netherlands Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.9% v 3.9% prior.
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.0%t v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.2% prior.
• (UK) Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 5.5% v 4.8%e; Y/Y: 23.6% v 22.2%e.
• (UK) Q2 Final Private Consumption Q/Q: 7.2% v 7.3%e; Government Spending Q/Q: 8.1% v 6.1%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q/Q: +0.8% v -0.5%e; Exports Q/Q: 6.2% v 3.0%e; Imports Q/Q: 2.4% v 6.5%e.
• (UK) Q2 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: 4.5% v 2.4%e; Y/Y: 12.9% v 9.7%e.
• (UK) Q2 Current Account Balance: -£8.6B v -£15.7prior.
• (UK) Sept Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 10.0% v 10.7%e.
• (DK) Denmark Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 2.8% v 2.3% prelim; Y/Y: 9.8% v 8.5% prelim.
• (DK) Denmark Aug Gross Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.7% prior; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 3.1% v 3.3% prior.
• (FI) Finland July Final Trade Balance: -€0.4B v -€0.5B prelim.
• (NO) Norway Aug Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.3% prior.
• (ZA) South Africa Aug M3 Money Supply Y/Y:2.3% v 2.0%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e.
• (FR) France Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e.
• (FR) France Sept Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8%e.
• (FR) France Aug PPI M/M: 1.0% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 10.0% v 9.0% prior.
• (FR) France Aug Consumer Spending M/M: 1.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -5.4% v -5.4%e.
• (ES) Spain Aug Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.9% v+ 0.1%e; Retail Sales (unadj) Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.1% prior.
• (CH) Swiss Sept KOF Leading Indicator: 110.6 v 110.0e.
• (CH) Swiss Q2 Foreign exchange transactions (CHF): 5.4B v 0.3B prior.
• (AT) Austria Aug PPI M/M: 0.8% v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 9.5% v 8.6% prior.
• (CZ) Czech Q2 Final GDP (3rd reading) Q/Q: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.2%e.
• (TR) Turkey Aug Trade Balance: -$4.3B v -$4.3Be.
• (HU) Hungary Aug PPI M/M: 0.4% v 3.5% prior; Y/Y: 14.4% v 14.8% prior.
• (TH) Thailand Aug Current Account Balance: -$2.5B v -$1.6Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): +$3.8B v -$0.3B prior; Trade Account Balance: $1.9B v $3.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: 8.2% v 21.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: : 39.6% v 36.6% prior.
• (DE) Germany Sept Net Unemployment Change: -30.0K v -37.0Ke; Unemployment Claims Rate: 5.5% v 5.5%e.
• (IT) Italy Aug Unemployment Rate: 9.3% v 9.2%e.
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI Hesse M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.7% prior.
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 3.9% prior.
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M:0.0 % v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6% prior.
• (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Oct Daily FX Purchases (NOK): -1.7B v -1.7B prior.
• (CZ) Czech Aug M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.9% v 10.2% prior.
• (ES) Spain July Current Account Balance: €2.5B v €0.3B prior.
• (PT) Portugal Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: +0.9% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5% prior.
• (PT) Portugal Sept Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.9%v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior.
• (HK) Hong Kong Aug Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 11.9% v 6.4%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 10.6% v 6.7%e.
• (CN) China Q2 Final Current Account: $53.3B v $52.8B prelim.
• (EU) Euro Zone Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e.
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI Saxony M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.0% prior.
• (IT) Italy Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.4%e.
• (IT) Italy Sept Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.4% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e.
• (BE) Belgium Aug Unemployment Rate: 6.4% v 6.2% prior.
• (GR) Greece July Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 11.6% v 11.3% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 13.3% v 12.2% prior.
• (IS) Iceland Aug Final Trade Balance (ISK): -36.3B v -36.2B prelim.

Fixed income issuance

• (SE) Sweden sold total SEK1.185B vs.SEK1.25B in 2030 and 2038 inflation–linked bonds.

Looking ahead

• (IL) Israel Sept 12-month CPI Forecast: No est v 1.3% prior.
• (MX) Mexico Aug YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -242.7B prior.
• (EG) Egypt Q2 GDP Current Prices Q/Q: No est v -8.4% prior.
• (AR) Argentina Sept Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 39.8 prior.
• 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa PPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 7.1%e v 7.1% prior.
• 05:30 (SL) Sri Lanka Sept CPI Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.0% prior.
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills.
• 06:00 (IL) Israel Aug Trade Balance: No est v -$2.9B prior (revised from -$3.0B).
• 06:00 (IL) Israel Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.0% prior; Unemployment Rate (including covid effect): No est v 8.4% prior.
• 06:00 (CA) Canada Sept CFIB Business Barometer : No est v 67.1 prior.
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v 3.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior.
• 06:30 (IN) India Aug Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 469.0B prior.
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Quarterly inflation Report (QIR).
• 07:30 (IN) India Aug Eight Infrastructure (key) Industries: No est v 9.4% prior.
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 3.9% prior.
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Sept Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 3.4% prior.
• 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Trade Balance (ZAR): 35.0Be v 37.0B prior.
• 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): -40.5Be v -133.2B prior.
• 08:00 (BR) Brazil July National Unemployment Rate: 13.9%e v 14.1% prior.
• 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Unemployment Rate: 8.4%e v 8.9% prior.
• 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 30.0%e v 62.2% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 39.6% prior.
• 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 12.2%e v 11.0% prior; Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.9%e v 4.8% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 470.3K tons.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:30 (US) Q2 Final GDP Annualized (3rd reading) Q/Q: 6.6%e v 6.6% prelim; Personal Consumption: 11.9%e v 11.9% prelim.
• 08:30 (US) Q2 GDP Price Index: 6.1%e v 6.1% prelim; Core PCE Q/Q: 6.1%e v 6.1% prelim.
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 351K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.80Me v 2.845M prior.
• 08:30 (CZ) Czech Central Bank (CNB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise 2-Week Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 1.25%.
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Sept 24th: No est v $619.8B prior.
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Q2 Final Current Account Balance: No est v $19.9B prelim.
• 09:45 (US) Sept Chicago Purchase Managers Index (PMI): 65.0e v 66.8 prior.
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 4.633T prior.
• 10:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank (CNB) Gov Rusnok post rate decision press conference.
• 10:00 (US) Fed’s Williams.
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.
• 10:30 (ES) ECB’s De Cos (Spain).
• 11:00 (CO) Colombia Aug National Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.3% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 14.1%e v 15.0% prior.
• 11:00 (US) Fed’s Bostic.
• 12:30 (US) Fed’s Evans.
• 13:00 (US) Fed’s Bullard.
• 14:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Overnight Rate by 25bps to 4.75%.
• 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Overnight Lending Rate by 25bps to 2.00%.
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Wages M/M: No est v 2.3% prior.
• 15:30 (US) Fed’s Harker.
• 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Sept Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 109.6 prior.
• 19:00 (AU) Australia Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 57.3 prelim.
• 19:30 (JP) Japan Aug Jobless Rate: 2.9%e v 2.8% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.14e v 1.15 prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Large Manufacturing Index: 13e v 14 prior; Outlook Survey: 14e v 13 prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index: 0e v 1 prior; Outlook Survey: 5e v 3 prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Small Manufacturing Index: -9e v -7 prior; Outlook Survey: -8e v -6 prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index: -11e v -9 prior; Outlook Survey: -9e v -12 prior.
• 20:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Trade Balance: $5.1Be v $1.7B prior; Exports Y/Y: 16.0%e v 34.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 28.0%e v 44.0% prior.
• 20:00 (AU) Australia Sept CoreLogic House Price Index: No est v 1.5% prior.
• 20:01 (IE) Ireland Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 62.8 prior.
• 20:30 (JP) Japan Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.2 prelim.
• 20:30 (KR) South Korea Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.2 prior.
• 20:30 (TW) Taiwan Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 58.5 prior.
• 20:30 (ID) Indonesia Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 43.7 prior.
• 20:30 (MY) Malaysia Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 43.4 prior.
• 20:30 (TH) Thailand Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.3 prior.
• 20:30 (PH) Philippines Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 46.4 prior.
• 20:30 (VN) Vietnam Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 40.2 prior.
• 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Home Loans Value M/M: -0.5%e v +0.2% prior.
• 22:00 (ID) Indonesia Sept CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.6% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior.

Yesterday, the governors of the world’s major central banks announced at a meeting of the “Policy Panel” the assessments show that the rapid growth of inflation will be temporary, which has increased the level of risk-taking in the stock markets. As a result, the Dow Jones and S&P500 indices are moving in a short-term uptrend. Technically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still moving in the PRZ range of the daily moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. Moving out of this range could be decisive in determining the Dow Jones index trend. In the short term, the probability of the index rising is strengthened.

In the oil market and the Brent oil index, yesterday, the weekly changes in US crude oil inventories were released, which, Contrary to what experts had predicted a reduction of more than 2 million barrels, increased by more than four and a half million barrel, which led a bearish change in the short term. Still, with the end of the correction wave, the price has returned to a mid-term uptrend, and its price has probably risen to $ 80.

Technically, the resistance level of $ 80 per barrel, since October 2018, has been the price top of crude oil in international markets, and the price reaction to this level will be decisive.