Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7184; (R1) 0.7246; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral first. In case of another fall, through 0.7105, we'd continue to look for strong support from 0.6991/7051 support zone to bring rebound. On the upside break of 0.7288 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7425 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We'd look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.51; (P) 109.83; (R1) 110.01; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9106; (P) 0.9142; (R1) 0.9161; More....

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9241 resistance should resume the rise from 0.8925 through 0.9273. On the downside, break of 0.9098 will target 0.9017 support first. Further break there will likely resume the decline from 0.9471 through 0.8925 low.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 0.9180) retains medium term bearishness in USD/CHF. Break of 0.8925 support should resume the whole decline form 1.0342 (2016 high) through 0.8756 low. However, break of 0.9273 resistance and sustained trading above 55 week EMA will be an early sign of bullish trend reversal. Focus will then turn to 0.9471 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3648; (P) 1.3690; (R1) 1.3766; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Another fall is in favor with 1.3785 minor resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.3570 will resume larger fall from 1.4248 to 1.3482 resistance turned support next. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.4248 to 1.3570 from 1.3982 at 1.3304. However, on the upside, break of 1.3785 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3982 resistance intact.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248, after failing 1.4376 resistance. Fall from there could either be correcting the rise form 1.1409, or starting another falling leg inside long term sideway pattern. In either case, sustained break of 1.3482 resistance turned support will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 first. Break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1709; (P) 1.1729; (R1) 1.1766; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Another fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd continue to look for strong support from 1.1602/1703 key support zone to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1804 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1907 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.1602/1703 will carry larger bearish implication and pave the way to 1.1289 fibonacci support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Following another record close in US overnight, Asian markets open generally higher and stay firm. Commodity currencies continue to extend this week's rebound. While Yen and Swiss Franc remain soft, Dollar pull back seems to be slowing slightly. Nevertheless, Dollar selling could come back any time if Gold could make 1800 a base to stage another rise.

Technically, we'd maintain that some levels in Dollar pairs need to be taken out to confirm that it has topped. The levels include 1.1804 resistance in EUR/USD, 109.10 support in USD/JPY and 0.9098 support in USD/CHF. At the same time, we'd also look at 0.7288 support turned resistance in AUD/USD, and 1.6182 resistance turned support in EUR/AUD, to gauge the strength of rebound in Aussie and other commodity currencies.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.98%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.60%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.90%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.73%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0012. Overnight, DOW rose 0.61%. S&P 500 rose 0.85%. NASDAQ rose 1.55%. 10-year yield dropped -0.005 to 1.255.

NASDAQ hit new record after full FDA approval to Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine

Major US stock indexes closed higher after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccines. Pfizer shares also rose 2.4% while BioNTech stock rose 9.5%. Another vaccine maker Moderna also rose 7.5%. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new record highs.

The notable support from 55 day EMA in NASDAQ once again reaffirmed its near term bullishness. The index should be on track to 61.8% projection of 10822.57 to 14175.11 from 13002.53 at 15704.4, probably later this week. Sustained break there could prompt some upside acceleration to next target at 100% projection at 16355.1. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 14423.2 support holds, even with an initial rejection by 15k handle.

Gold back above 1800 as rebound resumed

Gold's rebound from 1682.60 resumed last week and it's now trading slightly above 1800 handle. From a bigger picture, it's possible that gold has once again drew enough support from long term fibonacci level of 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84 at 1681.92 to form a bottom.

However, we'd prefer to see, firstly, sustained trading above 1800 psychological level. Secondly, Gold will need to break through 1832.47 near term resistance. In that case, stronger rise could be seen at least to retest 1916.30 medium term resistance next. However, break of 1774.14 support will suggest that the rebound has completed and bring another test on 1681.92 fibonacci level again.

New Zealand retail sales rose 3.3% qoq in Q2, above expectations

New Zealand retail sales volume rose 3.3% qoq in Q2, above expectation of 2.0% qoq. 11 of 15 industries reported growth, and the largest increases were in electrical and electronic goods retailing (up 6.9%), food and beverage services (up 5.6%), motor vehicle and parts retailing (up 3.1%), pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing (up 7.5%), and accommodation (up 11.4%).

"Most retail industries saw increases in spending, with rises across all regions. Spending on big ticket items such as electrical goods, housewares, and vehicles was a priority for many consumers during this June quarter," retail trade manager Sue Chapman said.

Looking ahead

Germany will release Q2 GDP final in European session. US will release new home sales later in the day.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1709; (P) 1.1729; (R1) 1.1766; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Another fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd continue to look for strong support from 1.1602/1703 key support zone to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1804 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1907 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.1602/1703 will carry larger bearish implication and pave the way to 1.1289 fibonacci support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Economic Indicators Update

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started an upside correction from the 1.3600 zone.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.3800 on the 4-hours chart.
• EUR/USD is struggling to clear the main 1.1750 resistance zone.
• The US Manufacturing PMI dipped from 63.4 to 61.2 in August 2021 (Prelim).

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound extended its decline to 1.3600 before it started an upside correction against the US Dollar. GBP/USD recovered above 1.3700, but it could face many hurdles.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was able to clear the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3876 high to 1.3602 low. However, it is still well below the 1.3800 pivot level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

The first key resistance is near the 1.3740 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3876 high to 1.3602 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.3800 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3800 on the same chart. To move into a positive zone, the pair must clear the 1.3800 resistance zone.

On the downside, the pair could find support near 1.3650. A downside break below 1.3650 may possibly lead the pair back to 1.3600.

Fundamentally, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July 2021 (Prelim) was released by the Markit Economics. The market was looking for a decline from 63.4 to 62.5.

The actual result was lower than the forecast, as the US Manufacturing PMI dipped from 63.4 to 61.2 in August 2021 (Prelim). Besides, the US Services PMI also declined from 59.9 to 55.2.

Overall, the US Dollar started a downside correction, but pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD are facing a lot of hurdles on the upside.

Economic Releases

• German Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2021 (YoY) – Forecast 9.2%, versus 9.2% previous.
• German Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2021 (QoQ) – Forecast 1.5%, versus 1.5% previous.
• US New Home Sales for July 2021 (MoM) – Forecast -2.7% versus -6.6% previous.

Gold's rebound from 1682.60 resumed last week and it's now trading slightly above 1800 handle. From a bigger picture, it's possible that gold has once again drew enough support from long term fibonacci level of 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84 at 1681.92 to form a bottom.

However, we'd prefer to see, firstly, sustained trading above 1800 psychological level. Secondly, Gold will need to break through 1832.47 near term resistance. In that case, stronger rise could be seen at least to retest 1916.30 medium term resistance next. However, break of 1774.14 support will suggest that the rebound has completed and bring another test on 1681.92 fibonacci level again.

Major US stock indexes closed higher after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccines. Pfizer shares also rose 2.4% while BioNTech stock rose 9.5%. Another vaccine maker Moderna also rose 7.5%. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new record highs.

The notable support from 55 day EMA in NASDAQ once again reaffirmed its near term bullishness. The index should be on track to 61.8% projection of 10822.57 to 14175.11 from 13002.53 at 15704.4, probably later this week. Sustained break there could prompt some upside acceleration to next target at 100% projection at 16355.1. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 14423.2 support holds, even with an initial rejection by 15k handle.

New Zealand retail sales volume rose 3.3% qoq in Q2, above expectation of 2.0% qoq. 11 of 15 industries reported growth, and the largest increases were in electrical and electronic goods retailing (up 6.9%), food and beverage services (up 5.6%), motor vehicle and parts retailing (up 3.1%), pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing (up 7.5%), and accommodation (up 11.4%).

"Most retail industries saw increases in spending, with rises across all regions. Spending on big ticket items such as electrical goods, housewares, and vehicles was a priority for many consumers during this June quarter," retail trade manager Sue Chapman said.

Full release here.