Sample Category Title

USD/JPY retreated notably after edging higher to 160.58 last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term top could be formed ahead of 160.71 key resistance. On the downside, break of 159.54 will bring deeper pullback to 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 160.58 at 158.45. However, decisive break of 160.71 will confirm up trend resumption. That should push USD/JPY through 161.94 to 100% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.94) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD failed to break through 1.3300 support last week as sideway trading continued. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.3508 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.3300 will resume the decline from 1.3657 to 1.3158 support next. However, break of 1.3508 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3657 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.0351 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF's rally from 0.7760 continued last week but retreated after hitting 0.8012. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7906 resistance turned support holds. Above 0.8012 will bring retest 0f 0.8041 high. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.7603 and target 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.841 from 0.7600 at 0.8198 next.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it's still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's edged lower to 0.6977 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7076 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.6977 will resume the decline from 0.7277 towards 0.6832 support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.7076 will argue that fall from 0.7277 might have completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6782) holds.

USD/CAD's rise continued last week and took out 1.3965 resistance. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next. On the downside, below 1.3897 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3588) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

GBP/JPY fell sharply to 212.90 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 210.43 could have completed and risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 215.59 resistance holds. On the downside, below 212.90 will bring deeper fall to 211.23 support first. However, firm break of 215.59 will resume the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.53) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.82) holds.

EUR/JPY's fall to 183.95 last week suggests that rebound from 182.01 has completed at 186.18. But intraday bias was then turned neutral with subsequent recovery. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 186.18 resistance holds. Below 183.95 will target 182.01 support and below. However, firm break of 186.18 will resume the rebound from 182.01 to retest 187.93 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.98) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 178.98) holds.

EUR/GBP remained bounded in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. However, on the upside, break of 0.8680 resistance will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8728 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's rise from 1.6108 resumed last week and hit 1.6516 then retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.6334 minor support holds. Above 1.6516 will target 161.8% projection of 1.6108 to 1.6381 from 1.6186 at 1.6628 next. However, firm break of 1.6334 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6108/6186 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6569) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

Australian dollar remains at the front foot and continues to pressure strong barriers at 0.7050 zone (daily cloud base / Fibo 23.6% of 0.7277/0.6978) for the second consecutive day, but attempts to extend Thursday’s almost 1% advance, remain so far capped.

Strong bounce after repeated failure at 0.7000 support (psychological / Fibo 61.8% retracement of 0.6833/0.7277) started to lose traction under thick daily cloud which provides significant headwinds.

Near-term action is also weighed by predominantly bearish daily studies (strengthening negative momentum / 10/100 and 20/55DMA bear crosses) that challenges recovery attempts, although weekly Doji candle (after previous week’s large bearish candle) might signal developments of reversal pattern and fuel recovery.

Caution on repeated failure under cloud base that may deflate hopes for stronger advance, but also signal that traders reduce speed, ahead of RBA policy meeting next Tuesday (the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.35%, but may provide more details about their next steps in an environment of rising inflation and slower economic growth).

Res: 0.7050; 0.7083; 0.7108; 0.7129
Sup: 0.7021; 0.7000; 0.6978; 0.6938