Sample Category Title

Key takeaways

• Yen weakness persists despite intervention risks: USD/JPY surged to a 21-month high above 160.45, brushing off verbal intervention warnings as bullish momentum remains firmly intact.
• Macro drivers favour further upside: Rising oil prices and a widening US–Japan rate differential (Fed more hawkish vs BoJ’s gradual stance) continue to pressure the yen, reinforcing USD/JPY’s uptrend.
• Technical structure supports continuation: Price action remains within a rising channel above 159.85 support, with momentum indicators signalling further upside potential toward 161.16 and beyond unless a breakdown triggers a pullback.

The Japanese yen had staged a mild gain of 0.5% to print a 5-day high of 158.96 per US dollar ex-post the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 28 April 2026.

BoJ advocated a “hawkish hold” on its cash policy rate at 0.75%, with three officials dissenting (opting for a rate hike), which represented the biggest divide under Ueda’s governorship.

Overall, the BoJ has continued to guide the market along the lines of its “gradual interest rate hike” stance; in turn, short-term interest rate swaps traders are pricing a 66% chance that the BoJ may enact an interest rate hike when it sets policy again on 16 June 2026.

However, the gains on the yen were short-lived despite recent “stark and forceful” verbal intervention remarks made by Japan's Finance Minister Katayama on 23 April and 28 April, expressing concerns on a weakening yen with authorities standing ready to respond as needed to move in the currency market around the clock.

Higher oil prices and hawkish dissents in the Fed ignite another rout in JPY

Fig. 1: Medium-term trends of USD/JPY & WTI crude oil with correlation coefficient as of 30 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The movement of the USD/JPY has a significant direct correlation with WTI crude. They move in tandem as Japan imports approximately 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, and oil fuels Japan’s key export-oriented sectors like automotive and manufacturing.

Hence, without any clear signs from the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and energy flows, it increases the risk of stagflation in Japan, putting the BoJ in a dilemma to maintain its “gradual interest rate hike” monetary policy stance (a negative for the JPY).

The WTI crude oil has rallied by 38% since 17 April 2026 to trade at an intraday level of $110/barrel at this time of writing, erasing its losses since the start of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement on 7 April.

The recent hawkish messaging from the US White House administration towards Iran, continuation of the US Navy blockage in the strait, Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the waterway, and the latest report by Axios, today, that highlighted US military commanders are set to present President Trump with fresh options for military action against Iran on Thursday, 30 April.

Given that the USD/JPY has a high direction correlation of 0.72 (20-day rolling) with WTI crude oil, with the near-term bullish trend remaining intact for WTI crude oil (three consecutive daily closes above its 20-day moving average at $99.50/barrel), there is a high probability that the USD/JPY is likely to face further upside pressure in the near-term (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 2: US-Japan implied interest rate policy curve spread as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

The monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the US and Japan are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' monetary policies (the Fed and BoJ, respectively.

The current US/Japan implied interest rate policy curve spread for June 2026 has flattened, but it has shifted upwards to 2.74% from 2.46% three months ago (see Fig. 2), reinforced by three US Federal Reserve officials who dissented against an “easing bias” in yesterday’s FOMC monetary policy statement.

These observations suggest that the Fed is likely to be more hawkish or less dovish than the BoJ, which may prevent the Japanese yen from altering its major downtrend phase against the US dollar in place since May 2025.

Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.

USD/JPY – Rallied to a 21-month high and cleared above 160.45 “intervention level”

Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 30 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The “red hot” USD/JPY has continued its climb upwards and hit a 21-month intraday high of 160.67, clearing above the prior intervention level zone of 160.23/45, where Japanese authorities stepped into the currency market on 26 April 2024.

Watch the 159.85 key short-term pivotal support on the USD/JPY to maintain its ongoing minor uptrend phase from 17 April 2026 low, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 160.74 and 161.16 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).

A clearance above 161.16 may see a further push up to test the 161.80/95 key long-term pivotal resistance, where prior intervention took place in early July 2024.

However, a bearish reversal and an hourly close below 159.85 invalidates the near-term bullish tone for a corrective pull-back to expose the next intermediate supports at 159.05 and 158.60 (also the 50-day moving average).

Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on USD/JPY

• The price actions of the USD/JPY have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 17 April 2026 low of 157.59, with its upper boundary at around 161.16.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bullish momentum conditions as it printed a series of “higher lows” above the 50 level.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap has fallen by 1.09% over the past 24 hours to $2.53 trillion. This marks the third consecutive day of a gradual market decline, which appears to be a technical shake-out rather than a trend reversal. Dogecoin (+3.3%) is once again leading the gains, along with Tron (+0.6%) and Aptos (+0.1%). Among the underperformers are Aave (−5.7%), Trumpcoin (−5.3%) and The Graph (−5.3%).

Bitcoin is leading the decline in cryptocurrencies, having switched to a sell-on-rally mode over the last three days. This is clearly visible in the intraday pattern of recent days, where a gradual rise has given way to a decline at roughly the same pace. If we view the latest move as a technical correction, its potential target appears to be the area around $74K, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line lies. The March peak levels also lie here, reinforcing the significance of this level.

Dogecoin stands out modestly from the crowd of altcoins, leading the growth of top coins for the third day in a row and marking the fifth week of an uptrend. The $0.087 area has become a pivot point, where the coin also saw steady demand in 2024 and where there were strong buy orders on the slippage in October 2025. At the same time, current prices near $0.105 are more than 20% above that level, indicating the start of a bull market, according to traditional financial metrics. It is still too early to speculate on expectations of multiple-fold growth, as was the case two years ago, since this would require a radical shift of all cryptocurrencies into a bull market. But who knows, perhaps we are seeing the first signs of recovery after the crypto winter?

News Background

The crypto market entered a neutral phase in the second quarter: there is no clear trend, and economic and political factors are having a key influence on market dynamics, according to Coinbase. Events in the Middle East and fluctuations in oil prices remain among the main drivers.

Net inflows of Bitcoin to trading platforms have risen to 30-day highs, notes analyst Woominkyu. In his view, whales are transferring assets to exchanges for subsequent sale.

Spot trading volumes for Bitcoin on leading exchanges have fallen to their lowest levels since September–October 2023, notes analyst Darkfost. Alphractal also highlights the cooling of investor interest. The number of Google searches for cryptocurrencies has reached a three-year low.

73% of respondents believe Bitcoin’s current price is undervalued, according to a survey of 100 institutional and private investors conducted by Coinbase and Glassnode. They remain cautiously optimistic and expect most digital assets to recover within the quarter.

The Governor of the Czech National Bank has proposed adding Bitcoin to the central bank’s reserves to help control inflation. Despite its volatility, BTC could generate long-term returns, so it makes sense to allocate 1% of the state reserves to it.

The US dollar continues to trend upwards following the Federal Reserve meeting, drawing support from the regulator’s moderately hawkish stance and comments by Jerome Powell. Markets interpret the Fed’s rhetoric as a signal that restrictive policy is likely to remain in place for longer, supporting higher yields and sustaining demand for dollar liquidity.

Another factor is the anticipation of upcoming US macroeconomic releases, which could act as a trigger to confirm the current trend. Market participants remain cautious, assessing the outlook for inflation and overall economic conditions. This is keeping the dollar close to recent highs and creating conditions for further directional movement.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has tested its high for the current year, underlining the continued strength of the dollar in the present market phase. The move is supported by monetary policy divergence, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a tighter stance while the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to a more accommodative approach.

In the short term, two scenarios are possible. If positive expectations for the US economy persist and there are no signs of policy easing from the Fed, the pair may extend its advance towards the 2024 highs near 162.00. On the other hand, profit-taking and caution ahead of key data releases could trigger a local correction, pulling the pair back towards the 159.60–160.00 range.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index;
• tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), Japan.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair is shifting into a corrective rebound after its previous decline, supported by the strengthening dollar. Technical analysis suggests potential growth towards 0.7940–0.7960, as a V-shaped reversal pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. However, if the pair settles below 0.7900, the downward movement may resume.

Key events for USD/CHF:

• today at 10:00 (GMT+3): Switzerland’s KOF leading economic indicator;
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate;
• today at 23:30 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve balance sheet.

Overall, the dollar remains in an upward phase, though its дальнейшая trajectory will depend on a combination of Fed signals and incoming data. The market is considering both the continuation of US dollar strength and the possibility of a short-term correction from current levels. The reaction to macroeconomic data will be decisive in confirming either scenario.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.64; (P) 215.97; (R1) 216.52; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is back on the upside as up trend resumed. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43. On the downside, below 214.92 support will turn bias neutral again first, and bring consolidations before, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 205.25) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.82; (P) 187.15; (R1) 187.64; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 187.93 will resume larger up trend. However, further break of 185.87 will bring deeper fall to 184.75 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8655; (P) 0.8666; (R1) 0.8674; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as sideway trading continues. Further fall is expected with 0.8685 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8652 will resume the fall from 0.8740 to retest 0.8610 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8685 will dampen the bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8740 again.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6327; (P) 1.6377; (R1) 1.6456; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current recovery. On the downside, below 1.6286 will target 1.6126 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.8554. However, firm break of 1.6418 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound back towards 1.6842.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7129) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9228; (P) 0.9243; (R1) 0.9256; More....

EUR/CHF is still bounded in established range below 0.9264 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9277) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3665; (P) 1.3688; (R1) 1.3709; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for more consolidations above 1.3596. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3713 resistance holds. Below 1.3596 will resume the decline from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3713 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7082; (P) 0.7136; (R1) 0.7171; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7076 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.7221 will extend larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. On the downside, break of 0.7076 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.