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Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidations should be brief as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 163.29) holds. Above 153.97 will resume larger up trend to 138.2% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 166.07. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will argue that it's already correcting the rise from 155.01, and bring deeper fall to 160.46 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 163.97 at 160.54).

In the bigger picture, rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is seen as another rising leg of the long term up trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 171.82. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 159.44 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with break of 1.3362 resistance. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.3867 is extending. On the downside, below 1.3272 will target 1.3139 support. Nevertheless, break of 1.3557 will extend the rebound from 1.3139 towards 1.3675 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with breach of 0.8137 and some consolidations would be seen first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8029 support holds, even in case of deep pullback. On the upside, sustained trading above 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7600 at 0.8198 will extend the rally from 0.7603 to 161.8% projection at 0.8469.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213. Decisive break will argue that USD/CHF is reversing the medium term trend, and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8213 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.7603 at a later stage.

Risk remains on the downside in AUD/USD with 0.7026 resistance intact, and retest of 0.6864 low should be seen next. Corrective rebound from 0.6864 should have completed at 0.7026, after rejection at 55 D EMA. Firm break of 0.6864 will resume the whole decline from 0.7277 to 61.8% projection of 0.7277 to 0.6864 from 0.7026 at 0.6771.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206. Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

USD/CAD's break of 1.4005 minor support dampened the original bullish view, and suggests that recovery from 1.4002 has completed at 1.4127. Correction from 1.4247 is extending with another falling leg. But even so, downside should be contained by 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4127 will bring stronger rally back to retest 1.4247.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.4791 has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It's still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, retest of 1.4791 high should be seen next.

GBP/JPY is still bounded in consolidations below 219.56 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside should be contained by 216.39 support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 219.56 will extend larger up trend to 220.90 fibonacci projection level next. However, firm break of 216.39 will bring deeper decline towards 212.36 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the long term up trend is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 208.95) holds, in case of pullback.

EUR/JPY's rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Strong resistance is still expected from 187.93 high to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 186.15 support will turn bias neutral first. However, decisive break of 187.93 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 180.40) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8453 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8586). Strong resistance should be seen from 0.8610 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.8528 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8453 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8610 support turned resistance hold.

Switzerland's KOF Economic Barometer rose to 103.5 in July from 102.1 in June, comfortably beating expectations of 100.7 and reinforcing signs that the economy is regaining momentum. The latest reading extends June's move back above the long-run average of 100 and marks the highest level since February, suggesting the sharp deterioration seen in March has increasingly given way to a sustained recovery in economic activity.

KOF said the improvement was broad-based across the production side of the economy. Financial and insurance services, other services, construction and manufacturing all pointed to a stronger outlook, while demand indicators remained resilient. Foreign demand and private consumption were broadly unchanged, indicating that the improvement is being driven less by a surge in spending than by strengthening business conditions. Within manufacturing and construction, firms reported a more favorable competitive environment, improved profit prospects, fewer production barriers and a better overall business climate, although indicators for inventories of intermediate goods and production activity softened somewhat.

The latest survey suggests Switzerland's recovery is becoming more firmly established after the temporary setback earlier this year. Sector performance remains uneven, with the electrical and machinery industries continuing to strengthen while textiles and wood, glass and stone-related industries lag behind. Nevertheless, the broad improvement across both manufacturing and services, together with the barometer's continued move above its medium-term average, points to above-trend economic growth in the months ahead if external conditions remain supportive.

Economic Data

Key Takeaways

• The KOF Economic Barometer rose to 103.5, exceeding expectations of 100.7 and marking the highest reading since February 2026.
• The index has now remained above its medium-term average of 100 for a second consecutive month, reinforcing signs of above-trend economic growth.
• The improvement was broad-based across the production side, with manufacturing, construction, financial and insurance services, and other services all pointing to a stronger outlook.
• Foreign demand and private consumption remained broadly stable, suggesting the recovery is being driven by improving business conditions rather than stronger demand.
• Within manufacturing and construction, firms reported better competitiveness, stronger profit prospects, fewer production barriers and an improved general business environment.
• Some mixed signals remain, with production activity and inventories of intermediate goods softening, while the electrical and machinery industries outperformed and textiles and wood-related industries lagged.
• Overall, the survey suggests Switzerland's economy has continued to recover from the March slowdown and is entering the second half of the year with firmer momentum.

Full Swiss KOF release here.

EUR/AUD's solid break of 1.6419 resistance suggests that pullback from 1.6617 has completed as a correction at 1.6250. More importantly, rise from 1.6108 is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.6617 first. Firm break there will target 100% projection 1.6108 to 1.6617 from 1.6250 at 1.6759. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 1.6250 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.