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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7853; (P) 0.7883; (R1) 0.7923; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, below 0.7830 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7774 support. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will pave the way to retest 0.7603 low. However, decisive break of 0.7933 will argue that fall from 0.8041 has completed as a corrective move. Further rise should then be seen through 0.8041 to resume the whole rebound from 0.7603.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8053) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.12; (P) 159.45; (R1) 159.95; More...

USD/JPY's rally continues today and focus is now on 160.45 resistance. Firm break there will confirm larger rally resumption for 161.94 high next. On the downside, below 158.94 minor support will indicate that consolidation pattern from 160.45 is starting another down leg. But still, overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. Upside breakout is just delayed in this case.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 153.81) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

USD/JPY is once again approaching the 160 level, putting markets on alert for potential Japanese intervention. The pair’s steady climb, driven by rising oil prices and widening rate differentials, is turning this level into a key flashpoint for global FX markets.

Yen’s weakness is not occurring in isolation. Oil prices have surged, with Brent breaking above $114 and WTI above $106, reinforcing inflation pressures globally. For Japan, a major energy importer, higher oil prices translate directly into currency weakness through deteriorating trade dynamics.

At the same time, higher energy costs are pushing yields up in major economies, widening the already significant rate gap with Japan. Even with the Bank of Japan’s recent hawkish shift, its policy rate remains far below global peers, leaving the Yen structurally disadvantaged.

This combination is driving USD/JPY higher toward the 160 threshold—a level widely seen as a "red line" for intervention. The key question now is whether markets will test that level aggressively or hesitate in anticipation of official action.

Japanese authorities have already stepped up rhetoric. Finance Minister Katayama warned again this week that the government is ready to take “bold action” against excessive currency moves. However, past experience shows that verbal intervention alone has limited impact without concrete follow-through.

The uncertainty lies in whether authorities will act decisively this time. Intervention at or near 160 could trigger a sharp reversal, particularly if markets are heavily positioned. But hesitation or delayed action could embolden traders to push the pair beyond the threshold.

Complicating the picture is the broader macro backdrop. Markets are currently in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC decision, with traders reluctant to take strong positions. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, and the lack of new projections suggests limited policy signals.

This has effectively delayed broader market reactions, including those to oil’s surge. Once the FOMC event risk is cleared, the focus could quickly shift back to yield differentials and oil-driven inflation pressures, reinforcing upward momentum in USD/JPY. In that scenario, the absence of intervention could accelerate gains.

For now, USD/JPY sits at a critical juncture. Whether it becomes a turning point or a launchpad for further gains will depend on a simple question—who blinks first: traders or Japan.

In the currency markets, for the week so far, Aussie is the strongest one, followed by Dollar, and then Loonie. Swiss Franc is the worst, followed by Kiwi, and then Yen. Euro and Sterling are positioning in the middle.

Fed–Market Disconnect Takes Center Stage as Powell’s Final FOMC Faces Oil-Driven Inflation Test

The Fed sees inflation as temporary—but markets are not convinced. As oil prices surge again, Powell’s final FOMC faces a critical test between sticking to the script or signaling a policy shift. Read More.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Slumps as Confidence Drops Across Key Sectors

European sentiment is deteriorating fast. Consumer confidence is plunging, employment expectations are weakening, and growth outlook is turning softer across major economies. Read More.

Australia CPI Jumps to 4.6% as Fuel Surge Drives Headline Higher, Core Inflation Steady

Headline inflation is rising again in Australia, but stable core and easing services inflation suggest the shock remains concentrated rather than broad-based. Read More.

RBNZ's Breman: Ready to Act Decisively If Inflation Persists

RBNZ's Breman said if inflation persists, action will follow decisively. With fuel driving prices higher and core inflation still contained, policymakers are staying cautious but ready to tighten. Read More.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.12; (P) 159.45; (R1) 159.95; More...

USD/JPY's rally continues today and focus is now on 160.45 resistance. Firm break there will confirm larger rally resumption for 161.94 high next. On the downside, below 158.94 minor support will indicate that consolidation pattern from 160.45 is starting another down leg. But still, overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. Upside breakout is just delayed in this case.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 153.81) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Economic sentiment in Europe weakened sharply in April, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator falling from 96.7 to 93.5 in the EU and from 96.2 to 93.0 in the Eurozone. The decline marks a clear deterioration in business and consumer confidence, pushing both readings well below the long-term average of 100.

The drop was driven primarily by a collapse in consumer confidence, alongside weaker sentiment among services and retail trade managers. In contrast, confidence in construction and industry held broadly steady, suggesting that the downturn is currently concentrated in demand-sensitive sectors rather than production.

The Employment Expectations Indicator also deteriorated significantly, falling from 97.2 to 93.2 in the EU and from 96.3 to 91.7 in the Eurozone, highlighting growing concerns over the labor market outlook.

Among major economies, the deterioration was widespread. Germany led the decline with a 3.9-point drop, followed by France (-3.0), Italy (-2.8), and the Netherlands (-2.5), while Spain and Poland saw more moderate declines.

Full EU and Eurozone ESI release here.

• Markets are awaiting the Fed’s official stance.
• The ECB does not wish to repeat past mistakes.

The US dollar has entered a consolidation phase ahead of the Fed and ECB meetings and the lull in the Middle East. Central banks intend to adopt a wait-and-see stance amid geopolitical uncertainty. Right now, the US and Iran are playing a game of chicken. Tehran’s proposal to resolve the conflict did not go down well with the White House, which is preparing its own.

In 2008 and 2011, the ECB raised interest rates in response to rising inflation, only to slash them further a couple of months later to rescue the eurozone economy. In 2022, the Bank had already delayed tightening monetary policy for a very long time, allowing inflation to surge to double-digit levels. These are all acknowledged mistakes, and the desire not to repeat them is forcing the European Central Bank to maintain hawkish rhetoric without rushing into actual tightening.

Bloomberg experts expect Christine Lagarde to hint at a rate hike in June. If investors find these hints unconvincing, the EURUSD risks declining.

The Fed’s passivity stems from its intention to see how the conflict in the Middle East will affect the US. The post-pandemic recovery, the armed conflict in Ukraine and tariffs have had a temporary impact on the US economy and inflation.

However, the PCE has remained above the 2% target for a very long time, which risks undermining confidence in the central bank and entrenching higher inflation expectations. In such a situation, even the FOMC doves are speaking hawkishly. For instance, Christopher Waller warns that the Fed will eventually be forced to respond to a host of factors pointing to accelerating inflation.

Just as much as the fate of interest rates, investors are keen to know whether Jerome Powell will remain on the FOMC until 2028 or step down once his term as Chair comes to an end. His departure would allow Donald Trump to increase the number of ‘doves’ and bring forward the timing of a rate cut. It would also make Kevin Warsh’s task of restructuring the Fed easier.

Fears over the FOMC’s ‘hawkish’ rhetoric in April, coupled with the resulting strengthening of the dollar and rise in US Treasury yields, have acted as a headwind for gold, with the precious metal plummeting to a four-week low. However, if Jerome Powell refrains from hinting at rate rises, gold could recover some of its losses.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has changed little over the past 24 hours, hovering around $2.57 trillion, with assets moving in different directions. Markets are likely to prefer a wait-and-see approach ahead of decisions by the Bank of Canada, the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England over the next couple of days. Officially, markets are expecting a hawkish tone, so a focus on the economy could spur active buying.

The sentiment index plummeted to 26, falling below last week’s lows, reflecting a return of fear to the markets. The inability to hold above 50 since September remains a key sign of bearish sentiment.

Over the past two days, Bitcoin has lost approximately $4K from peak to trough at $75.6K, but on Wednesday, it turned higher, attempting to consolidate above $77K. Thus, Bitcoin has broken out of its upward trend but has not yet confirmed a reversal; therefore, we can only note a slowdown in growth at the 50% mark of the January-February decline.

News Background

The $80K level remains an important psychological barrier, around which a large volume of options is concentrated, GSR notes. QCP Capital considers $82K to be a key resistance level.

Bernstein regards Bitcoin’s February low of $60K as a “clear bottom” and expects a “higher and structurally longer bull cycle” going forward. The main driver of optimism remains a steady inflow of capital from institutional investors.

Bitcoin is no longer merely an “interesting asset” for companies seeking to remain competitive, Tim Draper, founder of venture capital firm Draper Associates, stated. According to him, firms must hold a portion of their reserves (5–15%) in BTC to avoid being financially irresponsible towards their shareholders.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the US Presidential Council on Digital Assets, announced an “important statement” regarding the US strategic Bitcoin reserve, which will be made in the coming weeks.

Bitmine, the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Ethereum, announced the acquisition of over 5 million ETH over 10 months, at an average cost of $2,369 per ETH. The company’s reserves have reached nearly 5.08 million ETH, representing 4.21% of the Ethereum supply.

EUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday, trading with minimal movement around 1.1708. The market is preparing for a Federal Reserve meeting, which could be Jerome Powell's last before his term ends in May.

The regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, investors will closely monitor its assessment of how the Middle East conflict is affecting the economy.

Other major central banks, including the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, will also announce policy decisions this week. The Bank of Japan has already delivered a more hawkish signal by keeping rates unchanged.

Geopolitics continues to support the US dollar. US-Iran talks have stalled, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and inflation risks are rising.

According to media reports, Donald Trump was dissatisfied with Iran's latest proposal and insisted that the nuclear issue must be included in negotiations from the outset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1688, currently extending down to 1.1675. A move lower below this level is likely, with potential downside towards 1.1656 and possibly 1.1616. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is developing a move lower towards 1.1685. A corrective rebound to 1.1705 may follow, before a further decline towards 1.1650 and potentially 1.1616. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading sideways ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with markets focused on how policymakers assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, this meeting is particularly significant as it may be Jerome Powell's last before his term ends in May. Geopolitical pressures remain firmly in place: US-Iran talks have stalled, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and inflation risks are rising, all of which continue to support the US dollar. Additional central bank decisions from the ECB, BoE, and BoC this week add to the cautious market tone. Technically, the euro appears vulnerable, with indicators pointing to further downside towards 1.1650–1.1616 in the near term. The direction will likely hinge on the Fed's tone regarding both rates and geopolitical risks.

European currencies are showing subdued dynamics, entering a consolidation phase following their previous advance. Earlier, EUR/USD and GBP/USD broke out of their ranges and strengthened; however, the subsequent correction has led both pairs to retest the previously breached upper boundaries of their sideways channels. The current stabilisation near these levels reflects a balance of forces in the market and a wait-and-see stance among participants ahead of the key decision by the Federal Reserve.

The main focus is on the Federal Reserve meeting, including the interest rate decision, the accompanying statement, and the press conference. The market is assessing potential signals regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy, which is limiting activity and restraining the formation of a directional move. Additional influence may come from macroeconomic data from the US, the euro area, and the United Kingdom.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating near the previously broken range, holding above key levels. This dynamic preserves a structure favourable for further gains; however, the lack of new drivers is restraining the development of upward momentum. The reaction to the Fed decision may provide the impulse for a breakout from the current range.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests the possibility of a retest of 1.1750, as a bullish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A firm move below 1.1650 could lead to the pair returning to the previously broken range.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank’s B. Balz;
• today at 18:30 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank Vice President Buch;
• tomorrow at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany’s gross domestic product.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is showing a similar structure, holding near its levels after a corrective pullback. The current consolidation reflects market uncertainty and expectations of signals from the Federal Reserve and the outlook for Bank of England policy. Depending on the regulators’ rhetoric, the pair may either resume its advance and firmly establish itself above 1.3600, or deepen the correction and fall below 1.3460.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator;
• today at 21:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
• today at 21:30 (GMT+3): FOMC press conference.

Overall, the market is at a point of equilibrium, where previously broken levels act as a key decision zone. The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting may serve as the main driver: a more dovish tone could support a continuation of the upward momentum in European currencies, while more hawkish signals may increase pressure and lead to a deeper correction.

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Key takeaways

• AI bubble fears lack confirmation as trend holds: Despite a temporary sell-off triggered by concerns around OpenAI revenue, the Nasdaq 100 stabilised, suggesting that recent “AI bubble” worries are not yet supported by technical or momentum signals.
• Semiconductors continue to lead without peak signals: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) remains the key market leader with strong gains, but current momentum levels are still below dot-com bubble extremes and show no bearish divergence, indicating further upside may be possible.
• Bullish structure intact above key support: The Nasdaq 100 continues to trade within an ascending channel, supported by healthy market breadth and bullish momentum signals, with 26,760 acting as the critical level to maintain near-term upside potential.

On Tuesday, 29 April 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported (before the start of the US session) that AI start-up, OpenAI (creator of ChatGPT) had fallen short of several internal revenue targets that spooked traders, leading to a sell-off on the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures of 1.5%, and several US technology and semiconductor stocks (NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD).

The Nasdaq 100 managed to trim its losses as US trading hours progressed on Tuesday and ended the session with a reduced loss of 1%, aided by OpenAI refuting the claims made in the Wall Street Journal report.

Bubble concerns have resurfaced around the AI-driven productivity and infrastructure capex narrative that powered the sharp rebound in US equities, erasing losses from the US–Iran conflict. Despite pushing the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 to fresh record highs, investors are increasingly questioning whether aggressive AI spending can deliver sustainable returns, raising the risk that valuations may be running ahead of fundamentals.

My colleagues, Zain and Elior, have written reports on the upcoming earnings releases of key Nasdaq 100 component stocks, Alphabet and Microsoft (links below), due after the close of today’s US session, which can also influence the intraday movements of the Nasdaq 100.

Semiconductor stocks are leaders that led the stock market bullish cycle

Fig. 1: SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 28 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

Fig. 2: SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices YTD performances as of 27 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

For US stock market traders, monitoring the health of the semiconductor stocks is paramount, even though they do not have any semiconductor names on their watchlists, because they are the market leaders that led the recovery stages of a broader market bull cycle.

Also, towards the end of the bull cycle, these market leaders will tend to be the first or second sectors that flash out signs of bullish exhaustion, a warning that the broader stock market trend is about to stage a bearish reversal.

So far, the barometer for the US semiconductor stocks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which consists of 30 stocks, is the leader of the ongoing recovery since the US-Iran war started on 28 February 2026. Using the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 28 April 2026, the SOX recorded a gain of 24% (see Fig. 1), surpassing the returns of the “Magnificent 7” except for Amazon, and the four US benchmark stock indices.

On a year-to-date performance basis as of 28 April 2026, the SOX led the pack significantly with a whopping return of 42% (see Fig. 2).

Read now, I shall uncover several key momentum and market breadth factors that suggest the medium-term bullish trend of the Nasdaq 100 since the 30 March 2026 low remains intact.

140% year-on-year gain on SOX is not extreme and overbought yet

Fig. 3: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) long-term secular trend with 12-month ROC (Source: TradingView).

The recent rally in the US semiconductor stocks (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), in the past four weeks, has been historic, by some measures, the most frenzied since the dot-com bubble days since 2000.

Until Friday, 24 April 2026, the SOX was up nearly 40% in April and up over 160% from a year earlier, both the most since 2000, driving up fears of a bubble bursting that may lead to devastating wealth destruction in terms of magnitude and time. The Nasdaq 100 took 15 years, and the SOX almost 18 years, to revisit their 2000 peaks after the dotcom bubble burst.

Based on data as of Tuesday, 28 April 2026, the year-on-year increase of the SOX is at 137% (see Fig. 3), which is still way below the 228% y/y gain seen on SOX that coincided with the major top of the SOX and Nasdaq 100 in March 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.

Also, before the SOX and Nasdaq 100 tumbled drastically from September 2000 to October 2002, the 12-month Rate of Change (y/y) of the SOX flashed out a bearish divergence condition in August 2000, before the start of the September 2000-October 2002 major downtrend phase (see Fig 3).

Right now, there is no bearish divergence condition on the 12-month Rate of Change (y/y) of the SOX.

Market breadth of Nasdaq 100 remains healthy

Fig. 4: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The share of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages is still holding above the 50% level; 59% and 54%, respectively, as of Tuesday, 28 April 2026.

Also, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks above the longer-term 200-day moving average has improved slightly to 52% (above 50%) from 48% printed earlier on 15 April 2026 (see Fig. 4).

Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.

Nasdaq 100 – Oscillating within a bullish ascending channel

Fig. 5: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Watch the 26,760 key short-term pivotal support on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures), and a clearance above 27,380 opens scope for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 27,647 and 27,934/27,994 (Fibonacci extension cluster) in the first step (see Fig. 5).

However, a violation and an hourly close below 26,760 invalidates the intraday bullish scenario for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 26,480 and 26,288/26,142.

Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the Nasdaq 100

• The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a bullish divergence condition on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, after it reached its oversold region (below the 30 level).
• Elliot Wave Theory suggests the minor bullish impulsive wave three structure from the 2 April 2026 low of 23,511 remains intact.
• The 26,760 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the lower boundary of the ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low.

The S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) have concluded a corrective phase against the cycle from the April 2025 low at 6367. This decline has been identified as wave (2). Following the completion of this pullback, the market resumed its upward trajectory in wave (3), breaking decisively above the prior peak of wave (1) at 7036.25. This breakout has established a bullish sequence and confirmed that the next leg higher has commenced.

From the termination of wave (2), the advance unfolded with wave ((i)) ending at 6653.75. A subsequent retracement in wave ((ii)) found support at 6503.75. The index then accelerated higher in wave ((iii)), reaching 7185.75. Afterward, a modest pullback in wave ((iv)) concluded at 7079.25. The structure now points toward further extension in wave ((v)), which should complete wave 1 of a higher degree.

Once wave 1 finishes, the market is expected to undergo a corrective phase in wave 2. This retracement will adjust the cycle from the March 31, 2026 low before the broader uptrend resumes. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 6367 remains intact, pullbacks are likely to attract buyers. These corrections should unfold in either three or seven swings, offering opportunities for continuation to the upside.

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

ES Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fREC8-nOIvI