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AUDCAD: ⬆️ Buy

• AUDCAD reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9870

AUDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the key support level 0.9760 (former monthly high from March) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.

The upward reversal from the support level 0.9760 started the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to wave (5) from November.

Given the overriding daily uptrend, AUDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.9870 (top of the previous impulse wave i).

Brent: ⬆️ Buy

• Brent broke daily Triangle
• Likely to rise to resistance level 108.90

Brent continues to rise inside the sharp minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier when the price reversed up from the key support level 90.00.

The price earlier broke the resistance trendline of the daily Triangle from March – which accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Brent can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 108.90 (top of the previous waves b and ii).

Brent oil rose over 4% on Tuesday and hit its highest in almost one month, as growing uncertainty over disappointing signs from Middle East peace talks, with Strait of Hormuz remaining mainly closed and raising fears about stronger negative impact globally, that provides more support to oil prices.

Another shocking news that United Arab Emirates have terminated their membership in OPEC and OPEC+ cartels, partially deflated bulls that could result in consolidation / limited pullback in coming sessions.

Daily studies remain bullish but overbought that may provide some headwinds and keep near term action on hold.

Bulls broke above $110.00 (psychological) and dented $111.37 (Fibo 76.4% of $119.19/$86.08 bear-leg) that brings key barriers at 120 zone (recent peaks) in focus, with limited correction seen as positioning for fresh push higher if geopolitical situation remains unchanged or worsens.

Holding above $110 would provide bulls additional positive impulse, although limited dips below $110 (ideally to be contained above $107.00/$106.50) won’t be harmful for larger bullish picture, but would mark a healthy correction.

Res: 112.66; 114.66; 116.86; 119.18
Sup: 110.00; 107.92; 107.00; 106.54

• WTI Oil extends its persistent bounce in the absence of any diplomatic advancements, breaking the $100 barrier
• The energy commodity market is seeing its rules change completely, with the UAE quitting OPEC+ as producers prepare for the end of the war
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity

It is a pivotal week for global Markets, and after weeks of confusing fundamental catalysts, some regime-changing news is gripping Energy Commodities.

The UAE just announced it will quit the OPEC+ cartel amid a sharp rise in Oil prices, now above $100 per barrel.

The OPEC+ organization aims to regulate Crude production and prices for mutual interests, but with the Middle East conflict completely changing the rules of the game, the regime installed in 1960 is progressively tumbling.

The cartel, now left with 11 members (+ Russia), notably including Venezuela and Iran, has seen large challenges in recent years with production disagreements, internal foul plays, some members not respecting their quotas and limits.

The idea is that the most powerful producing countries had already begun to try to price out smaller producers through overproduction and price declines, a trend seen in 2025, which brought Oil prices to 5-year lows.

And this already led to the exit of Indonesia, Qatar, and others in recent years.

Add to this the largely divided geopolitics of recent years, with decades of peace turning into global instability, and you get the recipe for some Market-breaking news.

WTI Crude since 1960, the formation of OPEC – Source: TradingView. April 28, 2026

The Iran war is priced to end in recent months, if not weeks, and in the macroeconomic game, there is no place for those who don't prepare.

If and when Iran turns in for a deal, there will be blood in the Market.

While the diplomatic attempts and news are still in a stalemate, with the US maintaining its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to chokehold Iran's economy, the World is still operating, and Oil producers are progressively preparing for what comes next.

Trump just posted that Iran was pleading for the US to reopen the Strait promptly to move on to the next phase of the negotiations.

And it seems that a large pumping frenzy will reward those who are isolating themselves from quotas and limits – see what's already happening in the US and Canada, and they are largely winning from these Middle East dynamics.

With changing fundamentals, the Market is in a repricing mode and is subject to high volatility.

Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the issue.

US Oil Intraday Timeframe Analysis

WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels

WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 28, 2026. Source: TradingView

WTI rallied frantically since its Friday 17th spike down to $82, now trading 23% higher as supply droughts persist and the geopolitical cloud fails to dissipate.

While conditions allowed for a grind higher, at current levels, there doesn't seem to be much interest for bulls to extend the action higher, particularly after the recent news brought an end to the move-up.

Check out the large bearish divergence which may confirm an end to this ongoing rally.

Explore the trading levels, then take a closer look to the 1H timeframe for a few scenarios.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• $104 next-mini resistance (morning highs!)
• $106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance
• 2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)
• Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124

Support Levels

• $98 to $100 Resistance (now Pivot)
• 4H 50-period MA $97.30
• War Support $93.00 - $95
• $82 Friday 17 lows
• 2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80

1H Chart and action levels

WTI Oil 1H Chart – April 28, 2026. Source: TradingView

Crude has formed an upward channel in recent action, but the most important development to watch is the fact that bulls could not push above its central line, hence maintaining weak momentum.

This hints at higher odds of a downside break, with confirmation below the 50-Hour MA ($99.13).

Breaking the channel should maintain a rangebound price action between ~$93 and $103
Any break and close above/below these areas suggest of renewed volatility and changing dynamics, necessitating further analysis.

Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!

Markets

Bank of Japan governor Ueda’s press conference contrasted with the hawkish hold coming out of the split vote and the new monetary policy rate. Three out of nine BoJ-members voted to raise the policy rate by 25 bps to 1%, up from only one in March. CPI ex fresh food forecasts faced upward revisions for FY 2026 and FY 2027, from respectively 1.9% to 2.8% and from 2% to 2.3%. The first projection for FY 2028 stands at 2%. Core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is now seen at 2.6% (from 2.2%), 2.6% (from 2.1%) and 2.2%. Upside risks remain. While Ueda suggested that the price acceleration would last longer than the economic slowdown, he failed to provide a clear-cut path for a June rate hike. It's an open secret that the central bank closely communicates with the government, but Ueda stressed independence. PM Takaichi is an open supporter of the Abenomics combo of both stimulative fiscal and monetary policy. A rate hike (towards neutral) is possible if the economy doesn’t have a big slowdown. New GDP forecasts only faced a downward revision for the current fiscal year, from 1% to 0.5%, with projections for the next two years at 0.7% and 0.8%. The market implied probability for a June move by the BoJ remained unchanged at 65%. JPY reversed small initial gains during Ueda’s presser, rebounding back from 159 to 159.80.

The ECB’s March consumer expectation survey grabbed attention. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months spiked from 2.5% to 4% (vs 2.8% consensus), the highest level since October 2023 and to be compared with a 5.8% peak in October 2022. Expectations for inflation three years ahead, the ECB’s policy horizon, moved from 2.5% to 3% (vs 2.6% consensus). Since the start of the survey early 2022, expectations on this horizon were only (marginally) higher in that same October 2022 month (3.1%). Inflation expectations for five years ahead ticked from 2.3% to 2.4%, a series high. After last week’s April PMI’s, it’s a second worrying signal for the ECB from a price perspective. The clock ticks against central banks with time being a (price) catalyst. Notice that this month’s developments won’t bode well for the April consumer survey. Core bond yield curve bear flattened as a result with Europe underperforming. Daily changes at the German curve currently vary between +1.5 bps (30-yr) and +6.3 bps (2-yr). At one stage, the front end of the curve gained almost 10 bps as markets embraced the prospect of a hawkish central bank reaction function. In the meantime, Brent crude prices continue to creep higher as the high stakes game-of-chicken between the US and Iran continues. Neither party wants to blink first with Iran taking energy prices hostage and the US trying to squeeze Iran’s economy. Brent crude passed the $110/b mark for the first time since April 7. The unprecedented decision by the UAE to leave OPEC and OPEC+ from May 1st only very briefly halted the uptrend. OPEC’s third biggest producer and member since 1967 is looking to raise production and chase market share, and only adds to the ongoing reshaping of energy markets caused by the US/Israeli war against Iran.

News & Views

EMU banks reported a further net tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to firms (net percentage of banks of 10%), the ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey revealed today. The larger than expected tightening was the most pronounced since 2023Q3 and extended a trend that began in mid-2025. Perceived risks to the economic outlook and a lower risk tolerance were the main contributing factors. There was a small, in-line-with-expectations net tightening of credit standards for housing loans. Credit standards for consumer credit meanwhile tightened further and more than anticipated. Banks expect standards in all categories to become more restrictive in Q2. Firms loan demand unexpectedly decreased in Q1. Demand for housing loans was unchanged, missing expectations for growth. Consumer credit demand decreased strongly reflecting weaker spending on durable goods and lower consumer confidence. Banks see further loan demand declines across the board for Q2.

The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left the policy rate unchanged at 6.25% today. Inflation rose to 1.8% from 1.4% in March and is expected to continue to rise this year as high energy prices pass through. The MNB noted that the recently stronger Hungarian forint following the parliamentary elections and the accompanying declining risk premia would moderate the rate of inflation. It nevertheless expects headline CPI to be above the tolerance band from 2026Q3 before returning to target in 2027H2. The MNB advocates a careful and patient approach to monetary policy in light of inflation risks arising from geopolitical tensions and the uncertain financial market environment. Maintaining tight monetary conditions remains warranted in achieving price stability. The Hungarian forint trades little changed around EUR/HUF 365 with the MNB refraining from any rates guidance.

US consumer confidence rose slightly in April, with the Conference Board index ticking up from 92.2 to 92.8, beating expectations of 89.4. The modest gain suggests resilience in household sentiment, even as inflation concerns—particularly from rising gasoline prices linked to Middle East tensions—remain elevated.

Under the surface, the picture is mixed. The Present Situation Index slipped from 124.1 to 123.8, indicating a slight deterioration in views on current business and labor conditions. However, the Expectations Index improved from 71.0 to 72.2, driven by more optimistic views on income and labor market prospects. As noted by Chief Economist Dana Peterson, gains in labor market and income expectations helped offset softer assessments of broader economic conditions.

Temporary relief from a two-week ceasefire and a rebound in equity markets during the survey period likely supported sentiment after March’s volatility. Still, caution persists. Inflation expectations remain elevated despite a slight decline, and nearly half of respondents expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months. This suggests that while confidence is stabilizing, underlying concerns about inflation and policy tightening continue to weigh on the outlook.

Full US consumer confidence release here.

The oil market is hoping for the best but bracing for the worst. Iran has been backed into a corner and the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a shortage of storage facilities for ‘black gold’. According to Kpler estimates, at current production levels, supplies will last for 12 to 22 days. Production has already fallen to 2.5 million barrels per day and could drop to 1.5 million by mid-May. Tehran is forced to make proposals to the US for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, or it must hope that the global economy will collapse faster than the Islamic Republic’s.

Trafigura Group estimates that oil supply losses have amounted to 1 billion barrels since the start of the conflict in the Middle East. This figure could rise to 1.5 billion barrels if the standoff continues. Goldman Sachs forecasts a reduction in production in the Gulf states of 14.5 million barrels and a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day, compared with last year’s surplus.

Bringing the market back into balance requires a significant demand reduction, driven by rising prices or government measures to curb oil and petroleum product consumption. Unsurprisingly, major banks are raising their Brent forecasts. Citigroup expects the North Sea crude to average $110 per barrel in the second quarter if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of May. If this does not happen by the end of June, the average price will rise to $130 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs believes it will take longer than expected to repair the damaged infrastructure in the Gulf states and is raising its Brent forecast for October–December from $80 to $90 per barrel. Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent at $110 in the second quarter, $100 in the third quarter, and $90 in the fourth quarter.

According to Gunvor Group, if the conflict in the Middle East continues for another month, the oil market will reach a point at which onshore reserves run out. As a result, prices risk rising steadily, potentially reaching record highs.

Brent is already beginning its climb towards historic highs, reacting to the White House’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s proposal. According to the Americans, it implies Tehran retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is unacceptable.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1691; (P) 1.1724; (R1) 1.1755; More….

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.1662 support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1530). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7833; (P) 0.7853; (R1) 0.7876; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral first. On the downside, below 0.7830 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7774 support. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will pave the way to retest 0.7603 low. However, decisive break of 0.7933 will argue that fall from 0.8041 has completed as a corrective move. Further rise should then be seen through 0.8041 to resume the whole rebound from 0.7603.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8053) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).