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Key takeaways

• Bullish technical breakout: The AUD/USD has finally broken above the 0.7140 major resistance—a level tested multiple times since 2022—reaching a 52-week high near 0.7185, signalling the start of a fresh bullish impulsive uptrend.
• Macro catalysts supporting AUD: Strength in commodity prices driven by the US–Iran war 2026 and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates to 4.10% have boosted demand for the Australian dollar.
• Key levels to watch: Near-term bullish momentum remains intact above 0.7080 support, with upside targets at 0.7246–0.7266 and 0.7335–0.7350. A break below 0.7080 would weaken the bullish outlook and risk a pullback toward 0.7050–0.7030.

The price actions of the AUD/USD have finally staged a bullish breakout above its “stubborn” major resistance at 0.7140 (11 August 2022/2 August 2023 swing highs) after it tested twice in February 2026.

The AUD/USD has extended its gains by 0.8% in today’s Asia session (Wednesday, 11 March 2026) to record a new year-to-date and 52-week intra-session high at 0.7185.

The firmer AUD/USD has been supported by the ongoing bullish trend in commodity prices due to global oil supply disruption arising from the ongoing US-Iran war.

Secondly, the short-term interest rate market in Australia is expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its tightening monetary policy stance with an increased probability of its second interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to come as soon on the next meeting on 17 March 2026 to raise the cash policy rate to 4.10% to negate inflationary expectations from jumping higher due to firmer oil prices.

AU/US implied future policy interest rate curves spread supports a hawkish RBA

Fig. 1: AU/US monthly implied future policy interest rate curves spread as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

The spread/differential between the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for Australia and the US (derived from short-term interest rate futures) has risen steadily and shifted upwards (see Fig. 1).

The spread for April 2026 now stands at 0.42%, an increase of 13 bps from 0.29% recorded three months ago, and the spread for May 2026 increases to 0.54%, a similar increase of 13 bps from 0.41% three months ago.

Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.

AUD/USD – Bullish momentum supports a fresh impulsive up move sequence

Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 11 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Today’s bullish breakout above the 0.7140 major resistance suggests that the AUD/USD has exited from a 4-week choppy range configuration in place since 12 February 2026, in turn, igniting a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence within its medium-term and major uptrend phases.

In the near-term, watch the 0.7080 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the minor bullish impulsive up move sequence view for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.7246/7266 and 0.7335/7350 (See Fig. 2).

However, a break and an hourly close below 0.7080 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 0.7050/7030 (the pull-back support of the former minor descending channel resistance from 27 February 2026 high). Below 0.7030 exposes further near-term weakness towards 0.6944 (also the 50-day moving average).

Key elements to support the bullish bias on AUD/USD

• The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline, which suggests that short-term bullish momentum remains intact within its minor uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).
• The daily 2-year Australian sovereign bond/US Treasury yield spread has continued to widen to 0.85% from 0.75% a week ago, in turn, supporting the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).

Oil prices reversed their Asian session gains again yesterday, pulling US crude all the way down to the $76pb mark as the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it could release a record amount of strategic reserves. The exact amount has not been disclosed yet, but it will reportedly be more than the 182 million barrels released after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. There is talk that it could be around 300–400 million barrels.

But that amount remains meagre compared with the roughly 45 million barrels that IEA/OECD countries consume every day. It would therefore be a temporary fix. The announcement is helping keep oil prices in check this morning, but the Middle East is now pumping less oil – around 6% less – in reaction to the Iran war. The duration of the conflict will determine whether the spike in oil prices is over, or whether there is more to come.

Oil prices have therefore become the most important ingredient of market sentiment. If the war ends and the worst – in terms of an energy price spike – is behind us, investors could return to a more constructive mode. But uncertainties loom, and there is a chance that the Iran war will not be done and dusted quickly.

For now, thanks to cooling upside pressure in oil prices, investors are scaling back the early-week jump in inflation expectations, which is helping support equities and bonds. Market volatility is easing and the US dollar is giving back ground against most major currencies. But restoring confidence will take time and require supportive data. And by supportive data, I primarily mean reasonable inflation numbers in the weeks ahead.

Today, the US will release its latest CPI report. But the report will be backward-looking to February—that is before Middle East tensions escalated, pushing energy prices higher. Middle East trade disruptions also threaten food prices via rising fertilizer costs, as fertilizers require natural gas for production and a large share of global supply comes from the Gulf region. And that is without even talking about the potential impact of US tariffs.

So today’s US CPI report will likely be taken with a pinch of salt. Investors will keep in mind that the recent jump in energy prices could add a few basis points to inflation in the coming months, as energy prices often account for a large share of short-term swings in inflation.

Still, the lower today’s CPI reading, the better. US headline inflation may have steadied near 2.4% year-on-year, according to a Bloomberg consensus, while core inflation is seen near 2.5%.

Then on Friday, the US will release the core PCE index for February—the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation—which is expected to show around 2.7% year-on-year price growth.

These numbers—combined with the fact that the recent jump in energy prices could push inflation higher in the coming months—suggest that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be in a position to cut rates any time soon. Activity in Fed funds futures still prices in a July rate cut with around 55% probability, but there may be room for a hawkish readjustment.

A further hawkish shift in Fed expectations would continue to pressure bond markets pushing US yields higher, which would likely translate into weaker appetite for risk assets. Yesterday’s US Treasury auction, for example, saw soft demand.

Among risk assets, small- and mid-cap stocks are more vulnerable to an energy shock and a potential hawkish readjustment in Fed policy, while US large-cap indices continue to grapple with AI-related uncertainties.

For Big Tech companies, the fear is that revenue growth may struggle to keep pace with massive infrastructure investment, raising concerns that some companies could eventually face balance-sheet pressure.

But there was good news on the wire. Oracle, often seen as a barometer of AI-related investment risks, released earnings after the bell yesterday and both the results and the guidance were stronger than expected. Revenue grew 84% in the period ending Feb. 28 versus 79% expected by analysts, AI investments appear to be paying off, and bookings came in higher than projected. The company also said that customers will fund upfront semiconductor purchases, meaning it will not need to borrow more to meet demand for computing services. Investors reacted positively: the shares jumped around 8% in after-hours trading, helping lift the Nasdaq Composite slightly.

Meanwhile, Amazon reportedly saw strong demand for its US bond sale, one of the largest corporate offerings on record—offering a contrast with rising anxiety about Big Tech’s leveraged AI investments.

Whether Oracle’s results will help lift sentiment across Big Tech remains to be seen. It will also depend on the broader macro environment, where higher interest rates could prematurely reverse the rotation trade back toward Big Tech, though likely with less conviction and more questions than what we saw between 2022 and 2025.

In focus today

Geopolitical tensions in Iran continue to dominate market sentiment, with uncertainty over how long the conflict and energy supply disruptions will persist. Investors will be watching closely for updates on the global release of strategic reserves, oil supply disruptions, geopolitical developments, and any further comments from the Trump administration.
Today's most important data release will be the US February CPI. US gasoline prices were on the rise already before the war in Iran erupted, and we expect energy inflation to lift headline CPI by +0.3% m/m SA (2.5% y/y). Core inflation will likely remain more modest at +0.2% m/m SA (2.5% y/y) due to low housing contribution.

We will follow comments from ECB executive board member Schnabel, who is scheduled to speak today. As the silent period ahead of the March meeting begins tomorrow, both Guindos and Schnabel have the chance to offer key insights today.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

The pressure on oil prices has eased since Monday with the Brent crude trading around USD 86/bbl - down from USD 118/bbl on Monday. The easing comes as US President Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could soon de-escalate, alleviating fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia is working to redirect some oil supply via pipeline to the Red Sea, while the IEA is rumoured to propose a strategic reserve release larger than the one following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Though neither solution offers a permanent fix, they could help stabilise markets until shipments resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Notably, Tuesday also saw some of the most intense airstrikes of the conflict. According to Reuters, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Tehran would not allow "one litre" of Middle Eastern oil to reach the US or its allies while attacks continue. Meanwhile, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright briefly claimed on X that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz but later deleted the post. The White House later confirmed no such escort had occurred. The Pentagon reported destroying multiple vessels near the strait, including 16 minelayers, and issued another warning to Tehran against deploying explosives in the area.

In Norway, February core inflation fell to 3.0% y/y from 3.37% in January, aligning with analyst consensus but exceeding Norges Bank's December projection of 2.6%. Headline inflation registered at 2.7% y/y, slightly above Norges Bank's forecast of 2.6%. Details revealed corrections to January's sharp jump in services ex. rent, which were largely one-offs. Overall, the release provides relief after last month's inflation surprise, with little evidence of core inflation accelerating further. While hikes now appear less likely, views on the probability of rate cuts will probably diverge. We see a cut in September as the most likely scenario.

In the US, NFIB's small business optimism index remained fairly steady in February (98.8; Jan. 99.3). Firms reported slightly lower uncertainty, improving business outlook and modestly lower price plans. Hiring plans declined, but at the same, realized employment changes were more positive than before. Similarly, ADP's weekly private sector jobs estimate continued to show improving jobs growth at 15.5k per week, up from 12k two weeks earlier.

In Sweden, January's consumption indicator stabilised at +0.7% m/m and +2.8% y/y, supported by broad-based growth across key aggregates. This followed December's volatile figures (-3.7% m/m/+0.5% y/y) and stable retail sales performance. Meanwhile, the GDP indicator remained weak at -1.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y, reflecting declines in private sector production, particularly in construction and manufacturing, while services remained flat. New orders fell, as indicated by PMI data, primarily in the export industry but also domestically, though from high levels. Production data continues to be influenced by strong defence spending in Q4.

In Denmark, February CPI inflation edged lower to 0.7% from 0.8% in January. Food prices declined 0.3% m/m, continuing a downward trend, while rents saw their annual increase at 1.8% m/m, slightly higher than last year. Energy prices showed mixed developments, with electricity rising sharply by 8.8% as expected, but gas prices only increasing 5.2%, less than forecast.

Equities: European equities rallied yesterday, with Stoxx 600 up 2% and OMX Nordic nearly 3%, more than recouping Monday's losses. US trading choppier, influenced heavily by the twists and turns in the oil price, and eventually closing somewhat lower (S&P500 -0.2%). US futures are somewhat higher today.

Within equities, tech leadership continued, and growth/momentum stocks did particularly well. This is interesting, as it is a trend shift from most of this year, with value outperforming growth with almost 10% YTD before the Iran attacks. It gets even more interesting considering that the US 10y even rose a few basis points yesterday. Tech, consumer discretionary and real estate were among the winners in the US session while defensives (utilities, health care) underperformed. Value cyclicals like banks and industrials were also weak.

Tech comeback is likely to continue today following a strong set of earnings from Oracle. Oracle has more than halved this year following massive AI capex programs, but they are sure monetizing it so far with cloud revenues growing 44% in the quarter. The moves in the oil price are still heavily impactful on markets, but with oil nearing 80 dollars, the impact from further declines will have less influence. As such, the recent tech appetite will be tested; whether Iran was a temporary distraction from the AI disruption theme or if this new leadership can be sustained.

FI and FX: Brent crude hit a new, recent low following reports that the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which were later denied. A decision on the IEA proposal is expected today, which would constitute the largest release of oil reserves in history, which could provide some temporary relief. EUR/USD remains about unchanged below 1.1650 from yesterday's open. 2Y Bund yields declined about 6bp and 2Y US Treasury yields pulled back 2bp over yesterday's trading session. The inflation print out of Norway matched analyst expectations at 3.0% y/y with details revealing few real surprises, with EUR/NOK ending the day largely unchanged. The SEK continues to trade with risk sentiment and after a very brief visit below 10.60 EUR/SEK climbed higher through the latter half of yesterday's session, as sentiment softened somewhat. Turning to the data, we forecast today's US February CPI at 2.5% y/y in both headline and core terms, slightly above consensus, but do not expect the release to significantly affect market pricing.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6228; (P) 1.6347; (R1) 1.6426; More...

EUR/AUD accelerates lower today and breaks through 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6594 support holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.6911) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8642; (P) 0.8653; (R1) 0.8665; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for 0.8611 support. Firm break there will resume the whole fall from 0.8863, and target 100% projection of 0.8863 to 0.8611 from 0.8788 at 0.8536. On the upside, above 0.8676 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development revived the case that whole rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 (2022 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618 will confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 0.8863 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 211.64; (P) 212.03; (R1) 212.46; More...

GBP/JPY's rebound from 207.20 resumed by breaking through 212.10 and intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 214.98 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, though, break of 209.15 will extend the corrective pattern from 214.98 with another falling leg, and target 207.20 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 202.80) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.10; (P) 183.45; (R1) 183.84; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, above 184.75 will resume the rebound from 180.78 to retest 186.86 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the downside, 182.00 will target 180.78. Firm break there will indicate that fall from 186.86 is already correcting whole up rise from 154.77.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations could be seen. Nevertheless, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9023; (P) 0.9039; (R1) 0.9057; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9149 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.8979 will extend the larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.9347 to 0.9092 from 0.9149 at 0.8894.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1590; (P) 1.1628; (R1) 1.1650; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment, and more consolidations could be seen. Further decline is expectred with 1.1740 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1506 will resume the fall from 1.2081 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.2081 on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.1500) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. That would also raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective bounce too. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3392; (P) 1.3438; (R1) 1.3463; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.3574 resistance intact, further decline is still in favor. On the downside, below 1.3252 will extend the decline from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place from 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least corrective the whole rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or under further development.