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Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.12; (P) 159.39; (R1) 159.68; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is expected with 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) intact. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 153.81) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3500; (P) 1.3539; (R1) 1.3572; More...

GBP/USD falls notably today, but stays inside range of 1.3446/3598. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is still in favor. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3446 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Oil prices extended their rally in today’s session, with Brent breaking through the $111 mark and confirming a decisive move above the key $110 psychological barrier. What was once a market anchored by expectations of diplomatic progress is now being driven by the reality of a deepening US–Iran stalemate.

The “hope trade” that followed the earlier ceasefire has effectively unraveled. Investors are no longer positioning for a swift deal. Instead, the market is transitioning back toward a prolonged stalemate scenario, where persistent tension—and the risk of renewed escalation.

The key a fundamental disagreement over negotiation strategy. The US is insisting that nuclear issues be addressed upfront, while Iran is pushing to defer those discussions until after the conflict is formally resolved and shipping disputes are settled.

This sequencing dispute is not just a procedural hurdle—it reflects a deeper strategic divide. Washington is unwilling to give up its naval blockade leverage without addressing nuclear concerns, while Tehran is resisting any framework that front-loads those concessions.

As a result, negotiations are effectively stuck. The lack of progress is reinforcing the market’s view that the conflict is entering a prolonged phase, where resolution is delayed and risks remain elevated.

Technically, the breakout today confirms a bullish shift. Brent has cleared its near-term falling channel, suggesting that the correction from 119.24 hsas ended at 87.79. As long as 104.30 holds, the path now points toward a retest of the 119.24/70 zone.

Looking ahead, a key risk factor lies in the status of backchannel diplomacy. Any official confirmation that Pakistani mediation has collapsed would remove a critical communication channel and potentially return the situation to pre-ceasefire conditions.

In currency markets, the shift in sentiment is already evident. Dollar is surging broadly on safe haven demand, reflecting a move toward more defensive positioning. Yen is the second strongest performer, supported by earlier hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan. Canadian Dollar is also benefiting from the oil rally. Kiwi, Swiss Franc, and Sterling are lagging. Euro and Aussie are trading in the middle.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.24%. DAX is down -0.74%. CAC is down -0.60%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.056 at 5.056. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.036 at 3.077. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.02%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.95%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.19%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.014 to 2.465.

ECB Survey Signals Rising Inflation Fears and Weakening Growth Expectations

Eurozone consumers are bracing for higher inflation, with expectations surging to 4.0% over the next year. At the same time, growth outlook is deteriorating and unemployment fears are rising, pointing to a worsening stagflationary mix. Read More.

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Gold and Silver Face Asymmetric Downside Risk as Dollar Weakness Fails Ahead of Fed, ECB

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3500; (P) 1.3539; (R1) 1.3572; More...

GBP/USD falls notably today, but stays inside range of 1.3446/3598. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is still in favor. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3446 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for March shows a sharp deterioration in the inflation-growth balance, with households bracing for higher prices while becoming more pessimistic about the economic outlook.

Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months surged from 2.5% to 4.0%, while three-year expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%. Even five-year expectations edged higher from 2.3% to 2.4%, pointing to growing concerns about longer-term price stability.

The increase in inflation expectations was accompanied by a notable rise in uncertainty, suggesting that households are struggling to assess the near-term path of prices amid ongoing volatility. At the same time, nominal income growth expectations remained unchanged at 1.2%, indicating that consumers do not expect wages to keep pace with rising inflation.

Despite this squeeze, expected spending growth increased from 3.5% to 4.1%, the highest level since May 2023. This divergence suggests that consumption may be driven more by necessity and price effects rather than underlying demand strength, as households anticipate higher costs in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, the broader economic outlook weakened significantly. Growth expectations fell from -0.9% to -2.1%, while expectations for the unemployment rate rose from 10.8% to 11.3%.

Full ECB Consumer Expectations Survey release here.

• Currencies of oil-exporting nations are becoming market favourites.
• USDJPY retreats as Bank of Japan hawks re-emerge.

The US dollar strengthened amid rising oil prices and doubts that the ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from the Fed’s rivals would lead to widespread monetary policy tightening. The ECB and other regulators are expected to keep rates on hold at the end of April, while signalling potential hikes soon. However, in the context of slowing economies, it will not be easy to implement monetary restrictions.

Brent and WTI continued their rally as the US rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to the White House, Tehran will continue to control the planet’s key oil artery, which is unacceptable. Citi forecasts Brent crude will average $130 per barrel in the second quarter if supply disruptions persist through the end of June.

In such circumstances, it makes sense to turn attention to the currencies of oil-exporting nations. JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank recommend buying the Norwegian krone and the Australian dollar, primarily against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Pioneer advises purchasing the currencies of Kazakhstan, Brazil and Nigeria against a basket comprising the US dollar and the euro. Amundi describes the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone as significantly undervalued.

The ECB should not rush into raising rates, but it will certainly prefer to demonstrate its resolve in combating high inflation. Credit Agricole describes its rhetoric as a ‘hawkish’ bluff. It is by no means certain that the deposit rate will rise in 2026, given that the eurozone economy is losing momentum.

Overall, the combination of central banks’ passivity at the end of April and the oil rally could work in favour of the US dollar. Pressure on it as a safe-haven asset is being exerted by stock indices that keep hitting record highs.

The Bank of Japan’s upward revision of its inflation forecast to 2.6% and a split within the Policy Board have allowed USDJPY bears to continue their counterattack. Three of the nine members voted to raise the overnight rate from 0.75% to 1%, compared with just one in March. The number of hawks is growing, providing medium-term support for the yen alongside the short-term support provided by the government’s ongoing verbal interventions.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by 1.2% to $2.56 trillion over the past 24 hours, marking a second consecutive day of decline. This time, the pressure is linked to the broader strengthening of the US dollar, which is raising the benchmark higher. Among the top gainers are Tezos (+7.9%), Cosmos (+1.7%) and Doge (+1.6%). Zcash (-5.2%), Stellar (-2.3%) and Solana (-2%) are falling at an accelerating pace. The sentiment index has dropped from 47 to 33 due to deteriorating sentiment.

Bitcoin has fallen to $76.6K, where it last traded a week ago. Since late March, BTC’s price has been in a clear upward range, but we are now seeing an attempt to break through its lower boundary, potentially reversing or correcting the trend. A break of the trend will occur if prices fall below $75K, while a reversal to the upside from higher levels would merely be a correction within the uptrend. In this case, we should expect a swift retest of $80K and a likely acceleration of the rally should this resistance be broken.

Solana has been virtually stuck at its 50-day moving average for over two weeks, a line that is trending almost horizontally. However, on Tuesday, we are seeing an attempt by the bears to seize the initiative, as the coin is falling following the previous day’s close below this line. Without a swift reversal to the upside, Solana risks taking a significant step lower, breaking the support line near $80, which has held since the start of the year. The next major support level now appears to be the $20 region, which implies a fourfold decline.

News Background

According to CoinShares, global investments in crypto funds rose by $1.2 billion last week. Investments in Bitcoin increased by $933 million, in Ethereum by $192 million, in Solana by $32 million, in XRP by $25 million, and in Chainlink by $7 million.

The fourth consecutive week of positive inflows into crypto ETFs reflects improved institutional demand amid Bitcoin’s highs since early February.

The leading cryptocurrency is in a ‘cautious rally’ phase, so the likelihood of breaking through the $80K level remains uncertain, CryptoQuant notes. The current phase resembles a transitional stage between negative sentiment and buyer dominance.

The number of active addresses on the Ethereum blockchain, smoothed by a 100-day moving average, has hit a new all-time high, which is a “hidden bullish signal”, notes an analyst at CryptoOnchain.

Strategy has reduced its Bitcoin purchases tenfold following its largest weekly acquisition of the asset in nearly a year and a half. The company purchased an additional 3,273 BTC last week for $255 million — at an average price of $77,906 per coin. Strategy now holds 818,334 BTC, purchased for $61.8 billion at an average price of $75,537 per Bitcoin.

The Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% per annum, as widely expected. At the same time, it raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.8%, up from 1.9% previously, while downgrading its GDP growth outlook to 0.5% from 1.0%. These revisions reflect the likely economic consequences of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Investors are also monitoring developments surrounding Iran. Tehran has sent a new proposal to the US, but disagreements over the nuclear programme remain a key obstacle.

An additional factor is the stance of Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary and emphasised increased coordination with the US on foreign exchange policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 159.36 level and is moving lower towards 158.90. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible rebound towards 159.88 and potentially 160.77. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, indicating the potential for further short-term downside before a recovery.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is developing a move lower towards 158.90. A rebound towards 159.88 may follow, with a possible extension to 160.77. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside pressure remains.

Conclusion

The yen has found some support following the Bank of Japan's policy decision, despite the BoJ leaving rates unchanged. The key takeaway for markets was the upward revision to inflation forecasts – from 1.9% to 2.8% –driven by the Middle East conflict, alongside a downgrade to GDP growth expectations. This suggests the BoJ is acknowledging persistent price pressures while balancing weaker economic activity. Additionally, Finance Minister Katayama's renewed commitment to currency intervention and US-Japan policy coordination has helped support the yen. Technically, USD/JPY may see further short-term downside towards 158.90 before a potential rebound. The overall direction will depend on geopolitical developments and any further signals from Japanese authorities regarding intervention.

• Gold prices are experiencing a selloff driven by rising oil prices (fueling inflation concerns) and dampened sentiment regarding a potential US-Iran deal
• Technical analysis indicates an accelerating bearish momentum, with Gold breaking below both the 100-MA and 200-MA on the H4 chart
• The primary downside target for sellers is the $4601 support level, while a relief rally would face resistance between the $4650 and $4700 zones.

Gold prices experienced a selloff in the Asian session as Oil prices continue to rise, stoking inflation concerns. Markets continue to be driven by the potential for a deal between the US and Iran.

As the situation is fluid any change in perception around a deal is knocking sentiment. Rumors that President Trump is not happy with the recent proposal submitted by Iran. This has dampened sentiment early on Tuesday and barring any comments is likely to remain the status quo for the European session.

H4 Chart: Bearish Momentum Accelerates

The H4 timeframe paints a clear picture of a market struggling to find its footing. After failing to sustain a break above the $4800 handle, Gold has plummeted through key support levels.

Crucially, the price has slipped below both the 100-MA (Blue) and 200-MA (Orange). The rejection at the $4700 psychological level earlier in the session acted as the catalyst for the current leg lower.

With the RSI currently languishing in oversold territory (near 23), a short-term bounce wouldn't be surprising, but any recovery is likely to meet stiff resistance at the previous breakdown points.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

H1 Chart: Lower Highs and Structural Weakness

On the H1 chart, the trend is undeniably bearish. We have seen a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The aggressive sell-off during the most recent candles has pushed Gold toward the $4620 area, slicing through minor support zones with ease.

The gap between the price and the moving averages on this timeframe suggests the move is slightly overextended. However, the lack of a "bullish divergence" on the RSI indicates that the bears are still firmly in control. The $4601 level (highlighted by the purple horizontal line) stands as the primary target for sellers and the next major "line in the sand" for bulls.

Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

M15 Tactical Analysis: Scenarios for the Upcoming Sessions

Looking at the intraday price action (M15), we see Gold attempting to stabilize after a vertical drop. Here is how I am framing the upcoming sessions:

The Bearish Scenario

If Gold fails to reclaim the $4640 - $4650 zone during a relief rally, sellers will likely reload. A break below the recent swing low at $4620 would open the trapdoor for a move toward the $4601 support level.

• Target: $4,601.
• Trigger: Rejection of the M15 50-MA or a break of $4,620.

The Bullish Scenario

For a meaningful intraday recovery, the bulls need to orchestrate a "stop-run" back above $4650. This would signal a potential "exhaustion gap" and could lead to a squeeze toward the $4680 area (near the H1 MAs).

• Target: $4,680 - $4,700.
• Confirmation: A 15-minute close above $4,655 with an RSI move back above 50.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $4650, $4687, $4700.
• Support: $4620, $4601, $4580.

Gold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart, April 28, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

While the long-term trend for Gold has been constructive, the short-term technicals are screaming caution. The decisive break below $4700 has shifted the momentum, and until we see a structural shift on the H1 (a higher high), I remain wary of catching the falling knife.

Commodity-linked currencies are trading near key levels, showing restrained price action as market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach. The fundamental backdrop is shaped by expectations surrounding the release of Australia’s inflation data and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, followed by a press conference. These events are viewed as key drivers for the respective currencies and could significantly shift the balance of power in the market.

Additional attention is focused on global factors, including US statistics (data on economic activity and oil inventories), as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran, which continues to influence overall risk sentiment.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is trading near its yearly high around 0.7220. This level is attracting heightened attention, as the pair has not traded above it for three years, increasing its significance as a supply zone. In the event of strong inflation data, a breakout with further upside is possible, whereas weaker figures could trigger a pullback and a return to the 0.7100–0.7180 range.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• today at 16:00 (GMT+3): S&P/CS Composite-20 Home Price Index (US), not seasonally adjusted
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US CB Consumer Confidence Index
• tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Consumer Price Index

USD/CAD

The recovery in USD/CAD observed last week has lost momentum following a failed attempt to consolidate above 1.3700. Yesterday, the April low was updated, but the price found support at 1.3600 and rebounded. Technical analysis of USD/CAD points to the possibility of a decline towards 1.3540–1.3520 if the pair consolidates below 1.3600. The bearish scenario would be invalidated after a confident move and hold above 1.3700.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US New Home Construction (housing starts)
• tomorrow at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision
• tomorrow at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference

Overall, the market is in a waiting phase, where key levels in AUD/USD and USD/CAD serve as decision points. Upcoming macroeconomic events — including Australia’s CPI, the Bank of Canada’s decision, and US data — will determine the next direction: either continuation of current trends with breakouts, or a return to more subdued, range-bound dynamics.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.45; (P) 215.75; (R1) 216.06; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation pattern from 215.89 is extending with another dip. Further rise is expected as long as 213.29 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, firm break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 205.25) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.