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Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.23; (P) 158.06; (R1) 158.50; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 158.89 will extend the rise from 152.07 to 159.44 resistance. Decisive break there will target 161.94 high next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 156.44 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 152.07 support. Overall, price actions from 159.44 are viewed as a near term consolidation pattern. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 holds.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.16) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7751; (P) 0.7792; (R1) 0.7814; More….

USD/CHF gyrates lower today but stays well above 0.7671 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7671 support will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.7603 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 0.7877 will bring stronger rally to 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD, Firm break of 0.8039 resistance will argue that it's at least correcting the down trend from 0.9002. Stronger rebound would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. However, break of 0.7603 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3332; (P) 1.3389; (R1) 1.3497; More...

GBP/USD's recovery from 1.3252 extended higher today but upside is still capped well below 1.3574 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further fall is in favor. On the downside, below 1.3252 will extend the decline from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place from 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least corrective the whole rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or under further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1548; (P) 1.1594; (R1) 1.1681; More….

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.1506 continues today, but stays well below 1.1740 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral, and further decline is still expected. Break of 1.1506 will resume the fall from 1.2081 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.2081 on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.1500) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. That would also raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective bounce too. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of rebound.

Global markets extended their recovery today as fears of a catastrophic disruption in global oil supply continued to ease. Asian and European equities rebounded broadly, although US futures were relatively sluggish. WTI crude also remains elevated at around 90 level.

The improvement in sentiment reflects a growing shift in how markets are pricing the conflict. Earlier fears centered on the possibility of a severe supply vacuum if the Strait of Hormuz were effectively shut down. Now, investors appear increasingly confident that global oil flows can be partially maintained through alternative routes and logistical adjustments.

A key development supporting this reassessment came from Saudi Aramco. The company announced it expects to restore roughly 70% of its normal crude shipments within days despite the ongoing disruption to shipping routes in the Gulf region.

Saudi Arabia normally exports about 6.4 million barrels per day. By rerouting supplies through alternative channels, Aramco aims to bring roughly 5 million barrels per day back to the global market almost immediately, significantly reducing the scale of the potential supply shock.

The primary workaround is the East–West Pipeline, also known as the Petroline. The 1,200-kilometer pipeline connects Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields with the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely.

This emergency activation of the pipeline has helped reassure markets that oil exports from the world’s largest crude exporter can continue flowing even while the conflict disrupts traditional shipping lanes.

Nevertheless, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned that the global economy would still struggle to sustain a prolonged closure of the Strait. Global oil inventories are already sitting near five-year lows, leaving limited buffer if disruptions persist.

The easing of supply fears has also triggered a reversal in safe-haven flows across currency markets. Dollar has come under broad pressure as investors unwind defensive positions built during the height of the oil panic.

For the week so far, the Dollar is now among the worst-performing major currencies alongside Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Commodity-linked currencies have benefited the most from improving sentiment, with Australian Dollar leading gains, followed by New Zealand Dollar.

Aussie has also been supported by domestic factors after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reiterated that the upcoming policy meeting remains “live,” signaling that policymakers will engage in a genuine debate about whether another rate hike may be needed.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 1.20%. DAX is up 1.69%. CAC is up 1.12%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.026 at 4.561. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.013 at 2.875. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 2.88%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.17%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.65%. Singapore Strait Times rose 2.19%. Japan 10-year JGB yield closed flat at 2.186.

RBA’s Hauser signals “genuine debate” at March policy meeting

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signaled that policymakers face a difficult decision at next week’s board meeting, warning that the recent surge in oil prices is adding new uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Speaking in an interview with The Conversation, Hauser said there will be “a lot for the board to discuss” when it meets later this month.

Hauser emphasized that a “very genuine debate” is likely among board members as they weigh competing risks. While inflation remains too high and rising energy prices could push it higher, policymakers must also consider broader economic conditions. “Inflation is too high. Higher prices don’t help that debate,” Hauser said, adding that arguments exist on both sides of the policy discussion.

The RBA’s current projections already point to headline inflation reaching 4.2% by June, but Hauser acknowledged that the recent oil spike linked to the Middle East conflict could push inflation above that forecast. However, he downplayed the likelihood of inflation climbing as high as 5% in the near term, noting that such projections assume oil prices remain around the USD 100 level.

Hauser stressed that the central bank has not yet updated its formal forecasts and will only revise them in May, after the upcoming policy meeting. For now, the key takeaway is that inflation risks are clearly tilted to the upside.

Australia Westpac consumer sentiment edges Up, but war fears slam late responses

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index edged up 1.2% mom to 91.6 in March. While sentiment remains firmly in pessimistic territory, the survey indicates that consumers have responded less negatively than expected to the RBA’s 25 bps increase in February.

However, daily responses collected during the survey week point to steep deterioration in confidence as geopolitical conflicts intensified. According to Westpac, responses gathered in the final three days of the survey were consistent with a much weaker sentiment reading of around 84.

Looking ahead to the RBA’s March 16–17 policy meeting, a rate hike remains possible but is not the base case. While policymakers are likely to be concerned about how rising petrol prices could feed into domestic inflation, the rapidly evolving global situation may encourage caution. Westpac expects the central bank to hold rates steady this month, with the next rate increase more likely to come in May once the external environment becomes clearer.

Australia NAB business confidence turns negative after RBA hike

Australia’s NAB Business confidence fell sharply by five points to -1 February, slipping into negative territory for the first time in eleven months. In contrast, business conditions held steady at +7, roughly in line with the long-run average. The split suggests that firms are still experiencing stable trading conditions but are becoming increasingly cautious about the outlook.

Cost pressures also showed signs of firming again during the month. Labour costs rose to 1.5% on a quarterly equivalent basis. Retail price growth accelerated to 1.0% from just 0.3% previously. The rebound in price indicators suggests that underlying inflation pressures in the business sector may still be present.

The deterioration in sentiment has largely been attributed to the RBA’s 25 basis point rate hike in February to 3.85%, which marked the first increase in two years. NAB analysts noted that the survey only partially captured the subsequent escalation in Middle East tensions and the surge in global energy prices, meaning business confidence could face additional pressure in the months ahead.

China trade surges as exports jump 21.8% and imports beat forecasts

China’s trade activity accelerated sharply in the first two months of 2026, according to data released by the country’s Customs agency. Exports surged 21.8% yoy, far exceeding expectations of a 7.1% increase. Imports climbed 19.8% yoy, also well above the 6.3% consensus forecast.

The stronger-than-expected figures suggest both resilient global demand for Chinese goods and solid domestic consumption of imported materials. China typically combines January and February trade figures to minimize the distortions created by the shifting Lunar New Year holiday period.

Despite the overall strength, trade flows with the US continued to decline. Chinese exports to the U.S. fell about -11% yoy, while imports from the U.S. dropped nearly 27%. In response, Chinese manufacturers have increasingly redirected exports toward emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, highlighting an ongoing reorientation of China’s global trade network.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1548; (P) 1.1594; (R1) 1.1681; More….

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.1506 continues today, but stays well below 1.1740 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral, and further decline is still expected. Break of 1.1506 will resume the fall from 1.2081 and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.2081 on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.1500) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. That would also raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective bounce too. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of rebound.

• The Fed may keep rates high, while the ECB is unlikely to raise them.
• Japan’s economy has been hit by a double blow and needs new stimulus measures.

The US dollar fell sharply after Donald Trump said the Middle East conflict is nearing its end. If it had dragged on, oil prices could have soared to $150 per barrel, a serious blow to the economies of oil-importing countries. The US, with its strategic reserves of 415 million barrels and active drilling, would be able to withstand the energy shock, but Europe would not, so the latest turn was a relief for the battered EURUSD.

The resilience of the US economy could allow the Fed to keep interest rates high despite a potential acceleration in inflation. The futures market has increased the likelihood of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged until the end of 2026 to 18% from 8% before the conflict in the Middle East. Investors now anticipate one period of monetary easing rather than two as previously expected.

Derivatives in Europe indicate a rising chance of the ECB tightening monetary policy. In reality, the European Central Bank will be constrained if the eurozone enters a recession due to excessively high oil prices. Even if the conflict concludes soon, restoring oil production will be challenging. There is a market view that prices will not revert to pre-war levels until the end of 2026.

The rise in oil prices, combined with a weak yen, presents a double blow to the Japanese economy, ballooning the risk of stagflation. The USDJPY rate is climbing because, if the Middle East confrontation persists, the Japanese Prime Minister will need to prepare a new set of fiscal support measures. This will further weaken the yen.

If Donald Trump’s statement about an imminent peace deal had not caused the US dollar to fall, one might have assumed the USDJPY decline was due to currency intervention. In the past, when the pair approached 160, it triggered active measures by market authorities.

The US dollar’s retreat has helped gold recover. According to Bloomberg, gold-focused ETF holdings fell by 30 tonnes over the past week, marking the sharpest decline in two years.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1608 on Tuesday. The US dollar attempted to recover from a sharp intraday decline the previous day, which had been driven by expectations of a faster resolution to the conflict involving Iran, temporarily reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

US President Donald Trump stated that the military operation in Iran is nearing completion and is progressing faster than initial estimates, which had suggested a duration of four to five weeks. He also announced plans to reduce oil sanctions and deploy US Navy ships to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to contain rising oil prices.

Previously, the dollar had strengthened significantly due to safe-haven demand. The escalation of the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices had intensified fears of prolonged economic disruption and a fresh wave of inflation.

Investor attention is now shifting to macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The February consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the January PCE index on Friday. Market participants believe these data points will not yet fully capture the conflict's impact on inflation expectations.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 1.1588 level. An upward wave is expected, with a continuation towards the 1.1668 level. Thereafter, the beginning of a new downward wave within the broader trend is anticipated, targeting 1.1419 as a local objective. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing strictly downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum with potential for further downside.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next growth wave towards the 1.1668 level. After reaching this level, a decline to 1.1419 is expected, followed by the initiation of a new growth wave to 1.1650. Technically, this scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing strictly upwards towards the 80 level.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with signals of a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict temporarily weighing on the dollar's safe-haven appeal. However, the broader technical picture suggests any upside may be limited, with bearish momentum likely to reassert itself once the current corrective wave completes. Upcoming US inflation data will provide crucial clues about whether recent energy price increases are beginning to filter through to consumer prices, potentially influencing Fed policy expectations.

As the XAU/USD chart shows, the gold price has been holding within the $5,060–$5,200 range over the past several sessions.

Bullish view: the key support is the lower boundary of the long-term channel that has been in place since the beginning of 2026.

Bearish view: pressure on the price comes from statements by President Trump suggesting that the conflict in the Middle East could end soon. Yesterday, the US president described the operation in Iran as a “small incursion” and a “short-term” measure, which helped ease geopolitical risks and reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart

On the morning of 2 March, while analysing gold price movements following the attack on Iran, we confirmed the validity of the long-term ascending channel and also:

• → drew a local purple channel;
• → noted that the price was trading in close proximity to resistance lines;
• → suggested that emotions would settle and that the gold price might pull back, with support likely emerging in the $5,250–$5,300 area.

Indeed, later that evening the indicated zone acted as local support (shown by the blue arrow), but by 3 March the pullback had extended to the lower boundary of the blue channel.

It is worth noting that yesterday’s attempt by the bears (marked by the red arrow) failed to gain continuation — a sign that selling pressure may be weakening. Therefore, it would be reasonable to expect bulls to attempt to regain the initiative. A closer look at the XAU/USD chart also reveals that yesterday’s rising local lows form a cup-and-handle pattern.

At the same time, in the near term an important test of bullish intent may come at the breakout level of the purple channel around the $5,250 mark.

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Analysing the EUR/USD chart five days ago, we:

• → constructed a downward channel, noting signs that the bears remained in control;
• → outlined a scenario in which the rate would decline to a new yearly low (and test the lower boundary of the channel).

Yesterday’s price action confirmed these assumptions – the low at H is below the low of 3 February (F), refining the lower boundary of the channel. At the same time, the sharp upward reversal (shown by the arrow) indicates increasing demand, driven by a shift in sentiment due to several factors, including:

• → Trump’s speech, in which the president stated that the war in Iran is progressing successfully and that he has contingency plans for any scenario. This cooled demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset.
• → Expectations of US inflation data scheduled for release tomorrow.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

Recent developments mean that the previously formed sequence of lower extremes A–B–C–D–E–F has been extended with new turning points G and H. However, the EUR/USD chart suggests that this sequence has already been disrupted.

Note that:

• → the price has confidently recovered after yesterday’s bearish gap at the market open;
• → the drop below the F low near the 1.1530 level was extremely brief (a sign of a bullish Liquidity Grab pattern);
• → the market may be sensing the proximity of the psychological 1.1500 level.

Moreover, demand-side forces are today attempting to push the price into the upper half of the channel. Therefore, forex traders should not rule out the possibility of a further recovery in EUR/USD from the fresh yearly low. In this case, former support levels at 1.1680 and 1.1750 may act as resistance to further gains.

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Market Overview

The crypto market cap increased by 3% over 24 hours to $2.38 trillion, supported by the impressive stock market rebound. Officially, the market is moving within a relatively narrow range after the collapse in the second half of January. Often in such situations, a new downward trend is expected around the corner, which remains the baseline scenario for now. However, it would be unwise to overlook the early signs of the crypto market’s growing interest in good news from outside, which was not the case a few months ago.

Bitcoin is testing the $70K level, gaining over 7% from the lows at the start of Monday. Buyers are becoming more confident, creating a series of higher local lows since the end of last month. The first cryptocurrency reached an important local resistance level in February. Still, bulls will need to sustain the price above the last peak at $73K, where the 50-day moving average also resides, to confirm the development of a medium-term uptrend.

News Background

According to CoinShares, global investment in crypto funds increased by $619 million last week, marking the second consecutive week of growth after five weeks of outflows. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $521 million, in Ethereum by $89 million, in Solana by $15 million, and in Chainlink by $1 million. Investments in XRP decreased by $30 million.

Strategy purchased 17,994 BTC ($1.28 billion) last week at an average price of $70,946 per coin. Strategy now holds 738,731 BTC, acquired for $56.04 billion at an average price of $75,862 per Bitcoin.

BitMine acquired an additional 60,000 ETH over the past week. The company’s reserves now total 4.53 million ETH, representing 3.76% of Ethereum’s total supply. BitMine aims to accumulate 5% of all Ether supply.

Overall data on inflows into global crypto ETFs indicate generally positive sentiment towards this asset class amid a period of geopolitical tension stemming from events surrounding Iran, CoinShares notes. The surge in oil prices is an unfavourable factor for Bitcoin, according to CryptoQuant.

An energy shock could push inflation higher and complicate the Fed’s task of lowering interest rates. Additionally, it increases miners’ costs, reducing the business’s attractiveness and potentially creating an overhang of sales for already-mined coins.