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Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. . On the upside, firm break of 1.4115 will indicate that corrective pullback from 1.4247 has completed, and bring stronger rally to retest this high. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 1.3965 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.4791 has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It's still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, retest of 1.4791 high should be seen next.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 219.56. Downside should be contained by 216.39 support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 219.56 will extend larger up trend to 220.90 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the long term up trend is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 208.95) holds, in case of pullback.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 182.10 is in progress to retest 187.93 high. Nevertheless, since this rebound is viewed as a corrective move, strong resistance should be seen from 187.93 to limit upside. On the downside, below 185.32 support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 180.40) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.8453 is in progress for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8589). But strong resistance should be seen from 0.8610 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.8513 minor support will bring retest of 0.8453 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8610 support turned resistance hold.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.6256. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6419 resistance holds. Below 1.6256 will target 1.6108 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral first with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 0.9314 temporary top. Downside should be contained above 0.9226 support to bring another rally. On the upside firm break of 0.9314 will resume larger rise from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term falling trend line resistance indicates that 0.8979 is already a medium term bottom. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, rise from there should at least be reversing the fall from 0.9928, with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance will add more credence to this case. For now risk will remain on the upside as long as 0.9094 support holds, in case of retreat.

• The ceasefire in the Middle East has disrupted the greenback’s plans.
• Strong PMI data and falling oil prices are helping the euro.

The US dollar faced a downward gap at the start of the week as the Middle East de-escalation of the conflict came as an unwelcome surprise to speculators who had built up net long positions in the USD index to their highest levels since 2015. Formally, the Fed now has fewer reasons to fight inflation.

The doves on the FOMC are sure to insist on a pause following disappointing US employment and inflation data. The hawks could have used the rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as a trump card. As the conflict unfolded, the rally in oil prices would sooner or later have affected US core inflation via second-order effects. De-escalation makes the upcoming Fed meeting more predictable and deprives the dollar of an important advantage.

Other currencies are capitalising on the greenback’s weakness. The first rise since March in the eurozone’s composite PMI above 50, the threshold between growth and decline, signals positive shifts in the currency bloc’s economy, which is good for the euro. EURUSD initially ignored the signal, but the ceasefire in the Middle East has allowed investors to take note of it. The region’s resilience to oil market shocks may allow the ECB to raise interest rates without concern.

Nevertheless, Commerzbank believes that a de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran will not necessarily strengthen the euro, even though this news is positive for the European economy. A reduction in geopolitical risks and a fall in oil prices will lessen the likelihood of the ECB tightening monetary policy. And the prospect of one or two monetary tightening measures is already priced into the EURUSD rate.

However, for dollar-denominated currency pairs, the Fed’s reluctance to raise rates is more significant. This is particularly true in the run-up to the FOMC meeting. ABN Amro believes the pause will last until the end of 2026, as the conflict in the Middle East will end sooner than the markets expect.

The US dollar’s retreat has helped the bears on USDJPY, as have rumours that the Bank of Japan will prove far more hawkish at its July meeting than might be expected. The forward market is pricing in a 32-basis-point rise in the overnight rate in 2026, but the BoJ’s emphasis on a faster pace of monetary tightening will support the yen.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Gold was among the gainers at the start of the week, as the metal started trading on Monday with gap higher and advanced around 1.5% in Asian trading.

Softer rhetoric in geopolitical front, after US and Iran paused hostilities, opening way for potential diplomatic action, eased inflation concerns and deflated expectations for Fed rate hikes in coming months.

The action weakened the US dollar and provided fresh boost to gold price which probed again through $4100 barrier after the recent weakness found footstep above key $4000 support zone.

The price moved to the upper side of near-term $3950/$4200 range that boosts optimism, however, daily technical structure is improving but still fragile (the price needs to sustain gains above 20DMA ($4072 to keep slight bullish bias, underpinned north-heading 14-d momentum on track to break into positive territory).

In such scenario, $4200 upper breakpoint will remain exposed, with firm break here to generate initial reversal signal and formation of base.

Fundamentals need to remain in current mode (or improve further) to continue underpinning near-term action.

Initial support lays at $4072 (20DMA) followed by $4052 (10DMA) loss of which would hurt fresh bulls and risk retest of range floor.

Res: 4116; 4166; 4182; 4203
Sup: 4072; 4052; 4021; 4000

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has been gradually rising, reaching the $2.24T mark and recouping a significant portion of the losses incurred last Thursday and Friday. The recovery is being driven by a slight de-escalation between the US and Iran, which is fuelling risk appetite and leading to a series of higher local lows. Among the top altcoins over the past seven days, leading coins have shown gains ranging from Uniswap (+13%), Aave (+13.2%), and Aptos (+7.5%) to declines in Zcash (- 4.8%), Cosmos (-4.1%) and NEAR Protocol (-2.6%).

On Friday, Bitcoin fell below the uptrend’s support line in place since the start of the month, hitting a local low of $63.6K. This was an attempt by the bears to push the price down towards the 50-day moving average. However, ahead of the start of active trading in Europe on Monday, the price once again exceeded $65K, with attempts to maintain an upward trend while remaining above a significant medium-term trend line.

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in the recovery, being the first to hit two-month highs, rising above $1,950 and returning to test key support levels. This outperformance points to growing optimism surrounding cryptocurrencies, suggesting the market is shifting into a ‘buy on the dip’ mode. Although the risk of a further crash cannot be entirely ruled out, it appears that the cryptocurrency market bottomed out in June, a view supported by the shift in sentiment towards Ethereum, which is now in its fifth week of gains.

News Background

The Bitcoin futures market is showing the first signs of improving sentiment. Funding rates on perpetual contracts on Binance have returned to positive territory after a long period in negative territory, according to WIN Japan.

Falling prices, debt obligations and challenging market conditions are forcing public companies to sell Bitcoin en masse. According to VanEck, dozens of organisations have fully or partially liquidated their crypto reserves.

Ethereum is showing on-chain signals typical of market lows. However, the definitive formation of a bottom has not yet been confirmed, CryptoQuant notes. Only two of the five ETH metrics have reached the levels that they did during previous market reversals.

Bitcoin could lose its status as the largest cryptocurrency if the network’s governance mechanisms prove insufficiently flexible to counter the quantum threat promptly, said Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson. According to him, making changes to the BTC blockchain is extremely difficult.

Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the Clarity Act being passed in 2026 to 30% due to the approaching Senate summer recess in August, as seven Democratic senators believe the latest version of the bill is still not sufficiently developed. A month ago, the probability of the bill being passed stood at 50%.

According to Cryptorank, more than 99 crypto projects across various sectors, including DeFi, SocialFi, asset management and stablecoin issuance, have shut down since the start of the year. This is more than during the bear market of 2022.

The FxPro Analyst Team

The dollar heads into a pivotal week trading near 101.80, just off a 15-month high, with the Fed's July 29 meeting standing as the clear focal point. Markets currently price roughly a 65% chance of a hold, though renewed Middle East escalation has kept a hike back on the table for later this year. Energy remains the wildcard: the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and blockades affecting Persian Gulf shipping lanes have pushed oil higher, reigniting inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed's messaging.

Adding to the uncertainty, private-sector hiring has slowed for a fourth straight week according to ADP data, even as jobless claims fell to a two-month low, painting a genuinely mixed labor picture. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Congressional testimony offered little directional clarity, reaffirming a commitment to price stability without tipping the committee's hand.

With the ECB decision now behind markets and flash PMI data already digested, all eyes turn to Wednesday's Fed decision as the week's true catalyst, one capable of resolving—or extending—the dollar's recent indecision.

Technical Analysis of the DXY

The coming week carries real technical weight, with the DXY caught in a hotly contested zone between 100.00 and 102.00. The Fed's rate decision, and the volatility it brings, could well define the dollar's path over the near to medium term.

Bullish Scenario

After a rough start to 2026, the DXY rebounded sharply from January's 96-97 support, gaining roughly 6% since then. Having recently broken and held above the psychological 100.00 level, price now sits supported by both an ascending trendline and the 50-period EMA. A confirmed break above 102.00 would open the path toward 103-104, and eventually 106-107.

Bearish Scenario

The index is currently struggling at the 102.00 resistance. A rejection here, breaking the ascending trendline while respecting the longer-term descending trendline from 2025's highs, would send price back to retest the critical 100.00 zone—and potentially, on a deeper break, all the way back to the 96-97 support.

With the Fed's decision now just days away, the dollar finds itself standing exactly where it needs to: at the edge of a decision. Whether the DXY breaks free toward fresh highs or slips back into its earlier struggles, this week's outcome won't just move the greenback—it will set the tone for every asset priced against it heading into autumn.

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