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The Euro firmed further on Monday, generating initial signal of formation of reversal pattern on daily chart.

Recovery from a higher base at 1.1660 zone extends into second straight day and cracks significant barrier at 1.1745 (top of thick daily Ichimoku cloud) with sustained break here to boost positive signal and open way for further recovery.

Recent pullback from 1.1849 (Apr 17 peak) was contained by strong supports at 1.1681/75 (Fibo 38.2% retracement of 1.1410/1.1849 rally / 200DMA), where a double bottom and bullish engulfing (Friday) has been formed.

Rising 20DMA crossed above 200DMA, to additionally support recovery, as technical picture on daily chart is predominantly bullish.

Break of cloud top and nearby 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen (1.1759) to expose targets at 1.1790 and 1.1806, guarding key barrier at 1.1849.

The notion is supported by the monetary policy outlook for the coming months, as economists expect the ECB to start tightening its policy as early as June and anticipate 50bps rate hike by October, while the Fed is widely expected to stay on hold in the next meeting (the last policy decision under Powell’s leadership), while new head of the US central bank is expected to be more compliant with President Trump’s demands for lower interest rates.

Broken 100DMA (1.1706) reverted to solid support which should keep the downside protected in case of failure at cloud top, though overall bias is expected to stay with bulls while the price stays above 200DMA (which protects the downside since Apr 9).

Res: 1.1759; 1.1790; 1.1806; 1.1849.
Sup: 1.1730; 1.1706; 1.1675; 1.1636.

• Expectations of signals regarding an ECB rate hike are supporting EURUSD.
• Miscommunication by the Bank of Japan will lead to a rise in USDJPY.

The US dollar initially rose at the start of the week, following oil prices, but quickly turned lower, losing a quarter of a per cent against a basket of major currencies since the start of the day. This week, markets are awaiting Congress’s confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, an acceleration in European inflation and hawkish rhetoric from the ECB. With additional support from risk appetite, as evidenced by the rally in key indices, this will be sufficient to drive euro growth.

The US Department of Justice is closing its criminal investigation into Powell, and Senator Tom Tillis is ready to back Warsh’s nomination for the post of Fed Chair. With 13 of 24 Republican votes, the central bank will have a new leader by mid-May. For his part, Warsh is firmly convinced that inflation will slow in the long term, although he has also stated that he would not cut rates at Donald Trump’s request.

With a firmer basis for the appointment of the new Fed chair, markets are beginning to price in a more dovish monetary policy stance. Bloomberg experts forecast that the Fed will cut rates twice in the next 12 months – in October 2026 and March 2027. However, the new chair could accelerate this process, which is why we are seeing increased pressure on the US dollar.

Experts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the ECB to make significant decisions as early as June. And specifically, the focus is on policy tightening. Markets could receive an early signal on rate hikes as soon as this week, helping investors prepare. Expectations of hawkish rhetoric from Christine Lagarde and divergence in monetary policy are firmly supporting the EURUSD pair. Even more so as European inflation is forecast to accelerate to 3% in April, the highest level since 2022.

The US dollar, as a safe-haven asset, is under pressure from the ongoing rally in US stock indices, which are once again capitalising on artificial intelligence. The S&P 500 and EURUSD are finding support as investors gradually grow accustomed to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and believe a continuation of the ceasefire is more likely than escalation.

Signals of rate hikes are likely to come not only from the ECB but also from the Bank of Japan. Bloomberg experts also favour the resumption of the BoJ’s monetary tightening cycle in June. However, if Kazuo Ueda makes any missteps in his communications, USDJPY risks resuming its upward trend.

Gold fell below 4,700 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending last week's losses. Pressure on the precious metal has intensified following the breakdown of attempts to resume negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, supporting inflationary risks.

Donald Trump cancelled the US delegation's trip to Islamabad for negotiations, while Tehran stated that it would not participate in dialogue under pressure or while under blockade.

Meanwhile, oil prices are rising. The Middle East conflict has now entered its ninth week. According to the IEA, it has triggered the largest supply shock in the energy market in recent history.

High inflationary risks are increasing expectations that central banks will keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further, putting pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, remains cautious. The market still anticipates a gradual rate cut, but not in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,690 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,751 USD, while a downside break could lead to a move lower towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,710 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,680 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,610 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold continues to decline as geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, combined with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed oil prices higher and heightened inflationary risks. With the conflict now in its ninth week and the IEA describing it as the largest supply shock in energy markets, central banks are expected to maintain or even tighten policy rates for longer. This environment remains unfavourable for non-yielding gold. The Fed's cautious stance offers little immediate relief. Technical indicators point firmly lower, with further downside towards 4,616–4,610 USD likely in the near term.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation rose to $2.64T in the early hours of Monday but quickly retreated to the $2.60T level that has held steady over the past five days. Bears are aggressively defending the level from which the active sell-off began in February and where local highs were also seen earlier in April. Over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market has gained 2.8%, with Zcash (+15%), Algorand (+12%) and Cosmos (+9%) leading the way, while Trump (-10%), Theta Network (-2.5%) and Polkadot (-2.3%) lagged.

The sentiment index has risen to 47, entering neutral territory and reaching its highest level since the second half of January. Since last August, the indicator has spent no more than a few consecutive days above 50, the first sign of a bear market. In the short term, approaching this level increases the risk of a fresh wave of selling. But don’t rush to side with the sellers until the situation becomes clearer, as a bear market does not last forever.

Bitcoin has approached the $80K mark for the second time in the last few days, but has since experienced significant downward momentum. As it approaches this round figure, a build-up of sell orders is preventing the coin from moving further upwards. For now, we consider this situation to be temporary, as the corrective pullbacks fit within the uptrend formed at the end of March.

News Background

Bitcoin has entered a new phase amid the return of US retail investors to the market, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said. In his view, the combination of retail demand, institutional capital and limited supply creates the foundation for further growth.

Over a short period, sentiment among Bitcoin investors has shifted sharply — from pronounced pessimism to fear of missing out (FOMO), according to Santiment. Crypto whales have increased their holdings by more than 40,000 BTC over the past two weeks.

CryptoQuant, on the other hand, believes that Bitcoin’s recent rise above $79K was driven primarily by a short squeeze in the derivatives market, rather than sustained demand in the spot market. Large-scale short covering is making the market vulnerable.

Japanese company Metaplanet, one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, has announced the issuance of $50 million in bonds to finance new purchases of the leading cryptocurrency.

The infrastructure of traditional finance and blockchains began to form a unified system in 2026, according to CoinShares. Stablecoins remain the largest segment of hybrid finance.

A quantum computer has, for the first time, cracked a 15-bit elliptic curve cryptographic key — the mathematical basis of digital signature schemes that ensure the security of Bitcoin networks and most blockchains.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.14; (P) 215.47; (R1) 216.02; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and consolidations from 215.89 could extend. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 213.29 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 205.25) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.53; (P) 186.71; (R1) 186.99; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations would be seen first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 187.93 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8650; (P) 0.8668; (R1) 0.8678; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and further fall is expected with 0.8685 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8652 will resume the fall from 0.8740 to retest 0.8610 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8685 will dampen the bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8740 again.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6365; (P) 1.6392; (R1) 1.6414; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidations and further decline is expected as long as 1.6497 support turned resistance holds. Below 1.6340 will resume the fall from 1.6842 and target a retest on 1.6125 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6497 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7129) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9174; (P) 0.9198; (R1) 0.9222; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen below 0.9264. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9277) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3651; (P) 1.3683; (R1) 1.3705; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3629. Further decline is expected with 1.3729 resistance intact. On the downside, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.3729 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.