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Key Highlights

• Gold started a fresh decline from $5,420 and traded below $5,200.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at $5,040 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil surged toward $120 before there was a sharp correction.
• USD/JPY extended gains and traded above 158.50.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold remained well bid above $4,950 against the US Dollar. The price climbed above $5,250 and $5,350 before it started a fresh decline.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price trimmed gains from $5,419 and traded below $5,200. There was a spike below the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).

The price traded as low as $4,996 and is currently consolidating losses. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $5,040.

On the upside, immediate resistance is $5,180. The next major resistance sits near $5,200. A clear move above $5,200 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $5,255 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,419 swing high to the $4,996 low.

The main target for the bulls could be $5,320. If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $5,050 level. The first major support sits at $5,020, below which the price might slide to $5,000.

The main support sits at $4,950. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,880 or even $4,820 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price rallied over 40% amid the ongoing Iran war before the bears took a stand near the $120 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Existing Home Sales for Feb 2026 (MoM) - Forecast -2.5%, versus -8.4% previous.
• US ADP Employment Change 4-week average - Forecast 10K, versus 12.8K previous.

Australia’s NAB Business confidence fell sharply by five points to -1 February, slipping into negative territory for the first time in eleven months. In contrast, business conditions held steady at +7, roughly in line with the long-run average. The split suggests that firms are still experiencing stable trading conditions but are becoming increasingly cautious about the outlook.

Cost pressures also showed signs of firming again during the month. Labour costs rose to 1.5% on a quarterly equivalent basis. Retail price growth accelerated to 1.0% from just 0.3% previously. The rebound in price indicators suggests that underlying inflation pressures in the business sector may still be present.

The deterioration in sentiment has largely been attributed to the RBA’s 25 basis point rate hike in February to 3.85%, which marked the first increase in two years. NAB analysts noted that the survey only partially captured the subsequent escalation in Middle East tensions and the surge in global energy prices, meaning business confidence could face additional pressure in the months ahead.

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index edged up 1.2% mom to 91.6 in March. While sentiment remains firmly in pessimistic territory, the survey indicates that consumers have responded less negatively than expected to the RBA’s 25 bps increase in February.

However, daily responses collected during the survey week point to steep deterioration in confidence as geopolitical conflicts intensified. According to Westpac, responses gathered in the final three days of the survey were consistent with a much weaker sentiment reading of around 84.

Looking ahead to the RBA’s March 16–17 policy meeting, a rate hike remains possible but is not the base case. While policymakers are likely to be concerned about how rising petrol prices could feed into domestic inflation, the rapidly evolving global situation may encourage caution. Westpac expects the central bank to hold rates steady this month, with the next rate increase more likely to come in May once the external environment becomes clearer.

Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

The US Dollar has been on a significant run since the beginning of the US-Iran-Israel war, quickly breaching its prior 2026 records.

When the night falls, the wolves step out – Dollar bears had dominated the narrative since early 2025 and have kept insisting on a weaker dollar despite largely rangebound action since July.

This bearishness had largely been covered throughout our previous Dollar analyses and reached a peak after the recent Bank of America's Fund Manager survey.

When the Market is short and a catalyst for shortage lands, it leads to explosive moves, and that's precisely what happened with the USD.

The US-Iran war sparked a swift need for dollars to protect against currency volatility, particularly to purchase oil at a much higher price. Hence, firms and institutions require dollar hedging to defend against a double-edged squeeze.

Source: TradingView

This added to the Momentum throughout last week's Globex Open and this week's spike.

In case you missed the historic moves, WTI and Brent Oil prices have moved 25% on both sides throughout the overnight and morning session and are now settling closer to $95 as G7 nations expressed a desire to control the situation by releasing strategic reserves, as Maritime traffic near the Strait of Hormuz slowly picks up again.

WTI (US) Oil 1H Chart – March 9, 2026. Source: TradingView

Note: Things just took an unexpected turn as I just posted this chart, Oil gapped lower to $83 – Remaining below $85 would bring back sellers in control, but tomorrow's close will be necessary; Expect volatility to remain high before that.

We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar after its Market-sweeping rises.

Dollar Index 1H Chart

Dollar Index 1H Chart, March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar just took a swift turn lower after the Market shaking Trump announcement.

The overnight/morning action now points towards a clear double-top, pointing at a drop back towards 98.00, however, the 200-Hour MA (98.56) could act as support, so a rebound there will have to be monitored!

Three levels are to be watched:

• The 98.56 200-Hour MA – Bouncing from here would maintain the rangebound picture in the Dollar (which would invite to trade ranges in related USD Pairs)

Breaking the level lower points to:

• 98.00 – The pre-War resistance. As long as prices remain above this level, the outlook for the Dollar is neutral and could still see a grind back towards 99.00
• Morning highs: 99.70 – Breaking back above would imply further chaos in the Middle East, hence, could see a breakout back towards November highs at 100.376.

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

• Morning Spike 99.70 and Double Top
• 99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone
• 100.376 November highs

Support Levels

• 98.70 to 99.00 Key Pivot (acting as mini-support)
• 98.56 200-Hour MA
• 98.00 Key Mid-Range Support
• December Lows 97.75
• 97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support
• 2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support

AUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

AUD/USD 4H Chart, March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView

AUD/USD is attempting a bounce but is facing resistance at its 4H 50-period MA (0.7060) – closing above the MA in tomorrow's session should launch it back towards the February highs (0.7140).

Levels of interest for AUD/USD:

Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance 4H MA 50 – 0.7060; Bullish above
• 2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 Resistance (next resistance)
• 0.71470 February highs
• June 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230

Support Levels

• 0.69566 Overnight lows
• 0.69 to 0.6945 Early Feb Support (if War drags on, could return here)
• Micro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)
• October 2024 Mini-support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)

EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels

EUR/USD 4H Chart, March 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView

EUR/USD is now bouncing off of its clean downward channel – It will also face its 4H 50-period MA (1.16730).

If it breaks above, keep a very close eye on the downward channel top around 1.1750 to spot if the Channel holds.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.1640 to 1.1680 Resistance (4H 50-MA)
• 1.1750 mini-resistance and Channel Top
• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)

Support Levels

• 1.1580 to 1.16 Key Pivot
• Overnight and Channel lows 1.15065
• 1.1470 to 1.15 Pivotal Support
• 1.1350 to 1.14 Support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Middle East developments!

As I was completing an upcoming piece on the US Dollar, things just changed swiftly (coming up soon)

Trump just said during an interview that the War was "pretty much complete", implying a significant advance on his initial 4-5 week estimate.

It seems a bit early for the warning however, so this report and move will have to be treated with caution.

Check out this insane Oil chart!

WTI (US) Oil 30M Chart – March 9, 2026. Source: TradingView

Some feathers must have been lost today with the 30% up and down swings in Oil prices.

Traders, make sure to keep your risk tight and size accordingly with the extent of the events.

For those tracking live geopolitics, following what the IDF announces could provide somewhat less erratic news flows in order to trade the commodity.

Keep a close eye on the $85 level.

If you want to access more trading levels around the current trading area, check out our Friday analysis.

USDJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• USDJPY reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 158.1

USDJPY currency pair recently reversed from the resistance area between the long-term resistance level 159.00 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of 2025) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance area is currently forming the daily Shooting Star reversal pattern – strong sell signal for USDJPY.

Given the strength of the resistance level 159.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 158.1.

S&P 500: ⬆️ Buy

• S&P 500 reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 6900.00

S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support zone between the key support level 6600,00 (which has been reversing the price from September), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the extended upward impulse from June.

The upward reversal from the support level 6600,00 stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from January.

Given the strong daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6900.00.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.42; (P) 157.76; (R1) 158.13; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rise fro 152.25 is in progress for 159.44 resistance. Decisive break there will target 161.94 high next. On the downside, below 157.38 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, price actions from 159.44 are viewed as a near term consolidation pattern. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 holds.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.16) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7781; (P) 0.7810; (R1) 0.7838; More….

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.7671 support will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.7603 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 0.7877 will bring stronger rally to 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD, Firm break of 0.8039 resistance will argue that it's at least correcting the down trend from 0.9002. Stronger rebound would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. However, break of 0.7603 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.