Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.60; (P) 186.86; (R1) 187.11; More...

EUR/JPY dips mildly today as consolidation from 187.93 extends. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 187.93 will resume larger up trend. However, further break of 185.87 will bring deeper fall to 184.75 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8652; (P) 0.8664; (R1) 0.8673; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point, and more consolidations could be seen. Further fall is expected with 0.8685 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8652 will resume the fall from 0.8740 to retest 0.8610 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8685 will dampen the bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8740 again.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6275; (P) 1.6341; (R1) 1.6380; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the downside with break of 1.6340 temporary low. Fall from 1.6842 should target a retest on 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend fro 1.8554. On the upside, above 1.6418 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7129) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9197; (P) 0.9208; (R1) 0.9219; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral first and consolidations from 0.9264 could extend. But still, further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9277) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3588; (P) 1.3636; (R1) 1.3674; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3965 should target a retest of 1.3480 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3713 resistance holds, in case of recovery

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7145; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7214; More...

AUD/USD is extending consolidations below 0.7221 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.7221 will extend larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. On the downside, break of 0.7076 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1691; (P) 1.1724; (R1) 1.1755; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 1.1848. Further rally is expected with 1.1662 support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1530). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3500; (P) 1.3539; (R1) 1.3572; More...

GBP/USD is extending consolidations from 1.3598 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3446 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3446 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7833; (P) 0.7853; (R1) 0.7876; More….

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7774 accelerates higher today, but stays below 0.7933 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, below 0.7830 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7774 support. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will pave the way to retest 0.7603 low. However, decisive break of 0.7933 will argue that fall from 0.8041 has completed as a corrective move. Further rise should then be seen through 0.8041 to resume the whole rebound from 0.7603.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8053) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Markets

This week is packed with multiple high profile market topics including policy meetings of the major central banks, earnings from multiple tech majors and a several key data series including, especially in current context, keenly waited EMU inflation data and a Q1 US growth estimate amongst others. However, these days any prepositioning to these ‘top events’ remains highly conditional and is even some kind of paralyzed by the developments regarding the US-Iran conflict. At an earlier phase in the conflict, proposals on a ceasefire and/or headlines on (potential) new negotiations mostly triggered some constructive moves in the oil, bond and equity markets. However, this market reaction function has changed to ‘first see, then believe’ attitude. In this respect, a proposal by Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz in return for the US lifting its blockade on Iran and at the same time delaying talks on Iran’s nuclear program, didn’t yield much market enthusiasm anymore, on the contrary. The stalemate in the negotiations now causes a gradual but protracted further rise in the oil price, with Brent closing at $108.25 p/b reaching the highest level in about three weeks as markets understand that any ‘normalization’ in supply from the Persian Gulf will take (a very) long time. This creates a strong floor for yields, including measures on inflation expectations. Bund yields yesterday added between 2.5 bps (2-y) and 4.1 bps (30-y). Headlines on governments (potentially) giving some additional fiscal leeway (cf. Germany infra) doesn’t help to mitigate upside pressure at the long end of the curve. US yields in a similar way added between 1.9 bps (2-y) and 3.9 bps (30-y). (US) equities didn’t go anywhere (S&P 500 +0.12%). For now, the stalemate/paralysis regarding the conflict also doesn’t help the dollar that much even as sometimes there remains a mild intraday link with oil prices. The DXY index closed the session little changed at 98.5. EUR/USD still closed north of 1.17 (20).

The BOJ this morning left its policy rate unchanged (cf infra). With no concrete progress on the US-Iran talks (US maintains ‘red lines’ on Iran nuclear program), oil extends its ascent (Brent $110 p/b), challenging CB’s (including the ECB’s) wait-and-see approach. Yields remain upwardly oriented this morning. Dollar gains, if any, for now remain limited again (EUR/USD 1.171). US eco data include weekly ADP labour market data and consumer confidence (Conference Board) with the latter providing an update on US consumers’ reaction function to higher (energy) prices. In Europe, the (March) ECB inflation expectations survey deserves more than average attention. Quite a ‘symbolic’ release as the ECB has to clarify its reaction function at Thursday’s policy meeting. The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged (6.25%) in its first meeting post the April elections/political landslide.

News & Views

The Bank of Japan kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% this morning. Internal division grew with Nakagawa, usually a consensus figure, joining Takata and Tamura in calling for a rate hike. They cited upward inflation risks while price stability is more or less achieved and financial conditions are still accommodative. A majority of six, however, saw value in waiting given the downside risks to economic growth posed by the Middle East conflict. GDP forecasts for the current fiscal year was cut in half to 0.5%. 2027 saw a minor adjustment to 0.7% and the first reading for 2028 reads 0.9%. Inflation projections on the other hand were forcefully lifted to reflect the energy price shock and its risks. The BoJ’s preferred CPI gauge (ex. food) was raised to 2.8% and 2.3% from 1.9% and 2% for 2026 and 2027. 2028 is seen at 2%. It sees price stability hit between the second half of fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to remain at around that level thereafter. Today’s hawkish hold sets the stage for BoJ action in June with odds rising to 70%. The 2-yr yield rises this morning to 1.38%, coming close to the 1.4% multidecade high seen earlier this month. The yen strengthens slightly, pushing USD/JPY down to 159.12.

Germany’s finance ministry is keeping the door open to suspend the constitutional debt brake, it spokeswoman said yesterday. While rejected by Chancellor Merz and his party, the Socialist-led finance department said the government is constantly monitoring the impact of the Iran war on the economy and examining necessary measures. A suspension is currently not in the works, the spokeswoman said, but acting with foresight and vigilance is required. Germany lifted the brake back in 2020-2022 and did so again in 2025 to allow for massive defense spending. The former was temporary and based on the emergency clause (requiring a simple majority), which is also how it would potentially work anno 2026. The 2025 decision was a permanent constitutional reform (requiring a two-thirds majority).