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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1650; (P) 1.1687; (R1) 1.1713; More….
Outlook is unchanged in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.1642 support holds. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1642 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.
In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1530). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3446; (P) 1.3487; (R1) 1.3517; More...
Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is still in favor with 1.3446 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3446 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7891; (P) 0.7908; (R1) 0.7933; More….
Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is expected as long as 0.7933 resistance holds. Break of 0.7830 will bring retest of 0.7774 support. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will pave the way to retest 0.7603 low. However, decisive break of 0.7933 will argue that fall from 0.8041 has completed as a corrective move. Further rise should then be seen through 0.8041 to resume the whole rebound from 0.7603.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8053) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).
Japan Moves Markets Without Spending a Yen as USD/JPY Reversal Triggers FX Shake-Up
Yen is stealing the spotlight in an otherwise crowded macro day—and it did not take actual intervention to do it. After pushing through the 160 level earlier this week and hitting 160.71, USD/JPY has staged a dramatic reversal, plunging back toward 155 in a move that has caught traders off guard. The speed and scale of the shift point to a powerful repositioning dynamic, driven by a surge in intervention fears, and then amplified by opportunistic buying..
The catalyst was a “final warning” from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who said the timing for “bold steps” is “now nearing.” That phrase, in Japan’s policy language, is widely understood as a direct precursor to intervention. Katayama’s follow-up message—“don’t put your smartphones down”—reinforced the urgency, particularly heading into Golden Week, when thinner liquidity can amplify market moves.
Markets reacted immediately. Short Yen positions were aggressively unwound, triggering a sharp squeeze. At the same time, new longs began to build, with traders betting that authorities will continue to apply pressure until USD/JPY stabilizes at lower levels, potentially closer to 155 or beyond. Whether Japan has intervened or not is almost secondary—the psychological impact alone has been enough to force a major repositioning.
This episode underscores the power of verbal intervention. Without spending a single Yen—at least officially—Japan has managed to engineer a nearly 500-pip move. More importantly, it has broken the one-way momentum that had dominated the currency, restoring uncertainty and two-way risk.
Meanwhile, Oil is providing the other half of today’s volatility story. Brent surged to a four-year high above $126 earlier in the session, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions. But the rally proved unstable, with prices reversing sharply back toward $114.
The pullback appears to be driven more by market mechanics than fundamentals. With April 30 marking the expiry of the June Brent contract, position adjustments and rollover flows likely played a role in the sudden reversal. The result is a highly volatile environment where oil is amplifying, rather than stabilizing, broader market dynamics.
In FX, the ripple effects are clear. Yen is by far the strongest performer, while Swiss Franc is benefiting from the unwind of carry trades. As Yen-funded positions are reduced, the Franc gains too.
Dollar, by contrast, is lagging. The retreat in oil prices has undermined its recent strength, and the greenback is largely ignoring macro data releases. Instead, flows are being driven by positioning and cross-market adjustments.
Sterling is finding modest support from a hawkish signal at the Bank of England, where Chief Economist Huw Pill voted for a rate hike. Euro remains steady, with the ECB’s hold offering little surprise and limited market impact.
The bigger picture is that today’s market is being driven less by data and more by positioning and policy signaling. Japan has shown that credible threats alone can move markets. And for now, the Yen’s dramatic comeback is the clearest sign that traders are no longer willing to test authorities without consequence.
US Personal Income Beats, Spending Solid as PCE Inflation Accelerates to 3.5%
US personal income jumps 0.6% and spending rises 0.9% in March, while PCE inflation accelerates to 3.5%, signaling resurging price pressures. Read More.
US GDP Growth Picks Up to 2.0% but Misses Expectations as Inflation Surges
US GDP grows 2.0% in Q1, missing expectations, as PCE inflation surges to 4.5%, signaling rising price pressures despite solid demand. Read More.
ECB Holds Deposit Rate at 2.00% as Energy Shock Lifts Inflation Risks
ECB holds rates, but the real message is rising risk. Energy prices are pushing inflation higher while threatening growth. Read More.
BoE Holds at 3.75% as Pill Dissent for Hike on Second-Round Inflation Risks
BoE holds rates, but a hawkish dissent is the real story. Rising energy costs are raising fears of persistent inflation. Read More.
Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.0% in April, But Core CPI Ticks Down to 2.2%
Eurozone inflation is rising again—but it’s all about energy. Core pressures are easing, leaving policymakers with a difficult call. Read More.
Eurozone Economic Growth Slows in Q1 as GDP Misses Expectations at 0.1% qoq
Eurozone growth is slowing again. Germany is holding up, but France is stalling and overall momentum remains fragile. Read More.
Japan Industrial Output Falls -0.5% as Petrochemical Weakness Dominates
Japan’s factory output is slipping as energy-linked sectors are hit by supply disruptions, even as retail sales rebound and consumption holds up. Read More.
NZ ANZ Business Confidence Slumps to -10.6, Inflation Expectations Highest Since Feb 2024
Cost pressures are surging in New Zealand, driving inflation expectations higher and pushing business confidence back into negative territory. Read More.
China PMI Signals Modest Growth as Services Slip and Cost Pressures Build
China’s PMI data shows resilient output but growing divergence and rising inflation pressures within the economy. Read More.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.79; (P) 160.14; (R1) 160.79; More...
USD/JPY steep decline today suggests medium term topping at 160.71, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). Strong support should emerge there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. However, decisive break of 152.25/75 will confirm rejection by 161.94 high. That would pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 147.83 next.
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 153.90) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.
US Personal Income Beats, Spending Solid as PCE Inflation Accelerates to 3.5%
US personal income rose 0.6% mom in March, beating expectations of 0.3% mom, signaling stronger household income growth. At the same time, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9% mom, in line with expectations, indicating that consumer demand remains resilient despite rising price pressures.
The inflation picture, however, showed a clear pickup. The PCE price index rose 0.7% mom, while core PCE increased 0.3% mom, both matching expectations.
On an annual basis, headline PCE accelerated from 2.8% yoy to 3.5% yoy, while core PCE edged up from 3.0% yoy to 3.2% yoy. The data suggests that price pressures are re-intensifying, even as monthly core readings remain relatively contained.
| Indicator | February | March |
|---|---|---|
| PCE Price Index (MoM) | — | 0.7% |
| Core PCE (MoM) | — | 0.3% |
| PCE Price Index (YoY) | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| Core PCE (YoY) | 3.0% | 3.2% |
US GDP Growth Picks Up to 2.0% but Misses Expectations as Inflation Surges
US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.0% in Q1, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 but falling short of expectations for 2.2% growth. The rebound was driven by stronger investment, exports, government spending, and continued consumer activity, although a rise in imports—subtracting from GDP—partly offset the overall gain.
The composition of growth points to a shift in momentum. Investment and exports provided a stronger contribution, while government spending also turned higher. However, consumer spending decelerated compared to the previous quarter, suggesting some moderation in household demand. Still, underlying domestic demand remained firm, with real final sales to private domestic purchasers rising 2.5%, up from 1.8% in Q4.
Inflation pressures, however, intensified sharply. The PCE price index jumped to 4.5% from 2.9%, while core PCE rose to 4.3% from 2.7%, signaling a significant pickup in underlying price pressures. Although the broader price index for domestic purchases eased slightly to 3.6%, the surge in PCE inflation underscores a challenging backdrop for policymakers, where growth remains resilient but inflation risks are rising again.
US Initial Unemployment Claims Fall to 189k vs Exp. 212k
US initial jobless claims fell -26k to 189k in the week ending April 25, below expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -3.5k to 207.5k.
Continuing claims fell -23k to 1.785m in the week ending April 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -11.75k to 1.808m.
ECB Holds Deposit Rate at 2.00% as Energy Shock Lifts Inflation Risks
European Central Bank kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%, as widely expected, but the statement highlighted a more complex risk environment. Policymakers acknowledged that “the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified,” signaling that the balance of risks has shifted as the energy shock deepens.
At the center of the ECB’s assessment is the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy markets. The Governing Council noted that the war has “led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation and weighing on economic sentiment.” The key uncertainty now lies in how persistent this shock proves to be. “The longer the war continues and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy,” the statement warned.
Despite the near-term pressure, the ECB emphasized that underlying conditions remain relatively stable. The Eurozone entered this period “with inflation at around the 2% target,” and the economy has shown resilience in recent quarters. Importantly, “longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored,” even as short-term expectations have moved up significantly, reflecting the immediate impact of energy costs.
Looking ahead, the ECB maintained a flexible stance, reiterating that it will follow a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach” and is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path.” This keeps all options open, with policy decisions hinging on incoming data, the evolution of inflation risks, and the strength of monetary transmission. While the ECB stopped short of signaling a near-term move, the tone suggests that rising inflation risks will remain firmly in focus.
(ECB) Monetary policy decisions
30 April 2026
The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. While the incoming information has been broadly consistent with the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the inflation outlook, the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified. The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term.
The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation and weighing on economic sentiment. The implications of the war for medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock and the scale of its indirect and second-round effects. The longer the war continues and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy.
The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty. The euro area entered this period of surging energy prices with inflation at around the 2% target, and the economy has shown resilience over recent quarters. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly.
The Governing Council will closely monitor the situation and follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Key ECB interest rates
The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
***
The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.79; (P) 160.14; (R1) 160.79; More...
USD/JPY steep decline today suggests medium term topping at 160.71, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). Strong support should emerge there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. However, decisive break of 152.25/75 will confirm rejection by 161.94 high. That would pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 147.83 next.
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 153.90) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.