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After initial rebound, GBP/USD's fall from 1.3867 resumed by breaking through 1.3252. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.3008 structural support. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.2524 fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3482 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place from 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or under further development.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.0351 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF's rally from 0.7603 extended higher last week. The strong break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.7817) suggests that it's already corrective whole down trend from 0.9200. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7746 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8100) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7187 last week but fell sharply from there. Nonetheless, downside is contained above 0.6943 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6943 will confirm initial rejection by 0.7206 fibonacci level, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will pave the way back to 0.8006. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It's still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above.

USD/CAD staged a strong rebound after initial dip to 1.3524 last week. But upside is still capped below 1.3751 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3751 will suggest that stronger rebound is underway, and target 1.3927 resistance first. Meanwhile, break of 1.3524 support will bring resumption of whole down trend from 1.4791.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3569) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

GBP/JPY rose further to 213.28 last week. But subsequent selloff from there argue that the rebound fro 207.20 has completed as a three-wave corrective move. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 209.15. Firm break there will solidify this case and target 207.20 next. On the upside, however, above 213.28 will target a retest on 214.98 high instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 202.80) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 184.02) holds.

Range trading continued in EUR/JPY last week and overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 182.00 will target 180.78. Firm break there will indicate that fall from 186.86 is already correcting whole up rise from 154.77. On the upside, above 184.75 will resume the rebound from 180.78 to retest 186.86 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 174.73) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

EUR/GBP accelerated lower to 0.8615 last week but recovered just ahead of 0.8611 support. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8694) holds. Firm break of 0.8611 will resume the whole fall from 0.8863 to 100% projection of 0.8863 to 0.8611 from 0.8788 at 0.8536.

In the bigger picture, current development revived the case that whole rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 (2022 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618 will confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 0.8863 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's down trend accelerated to as low as 1.6125 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remain neutral this week for consolidations. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6594 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.6125 will resume the fall from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.6594 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7273) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Current development argue that it has already completed at 1.8554. Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6603) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.

EUR/CHF edged lower to 0.8979 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9092 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 0.8979 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 0.9347 to 0.9092 from 0.9149 at 0.8894.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, EUR/CHF is holding well inside long term falling trend channel. Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as falling 55 M EMA (now at 0.9711) holds.

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• This week saw the commencement of large wartime impacts on volatility. With the FOMC coming up, it's not easy to expect better conditions ahead.
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

Week in review – Oil Wrought Havoc on Markets

Now reaching the third week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, ongoing disruptions to the Energy commodity Market are starting to pose grand problems.

In short, higher Oil prices translate to higher inflation. Higher inflation translates to less profitability. Lower profitability and higher inflation translate into struggling Markets.

Global Weekly Index Performance – Source: TradingView – March 13, 2026

Stock Markets have taken a hit around the globe. Having remained impressively stable until recently, they are now entering a tougher period ahead.

As global Oil supply finds itself in jeopardy, companies will face significantly higher energy prices in the coming period; this effect should last at least as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure (only a few boats and tankers, if any, are crossing every day).

Strait of Hormuz Traffic – Source: Bloomberg – March 13, 2026

The issue is that Markets are starting to reprice the prolonged inflationary effect of such prices – the 1970s consecutive petrol crises taught painful lessons.

After the Oil embargos during that decade, stagflation brought heavy pain to consumers and global markets – and the effects lasted about 10 years, culminating in a significant economic cooldown in the early 80s.

With many ships attacked throughout the week, WTI went from about $80 to today's $98 – This doesn't even mention the 30% up and down swings in WTI prices since Monday.

WTI Oil Prices since End February – Source: TradingView – March 13, 2026

To put things into perspective, this is about 72% higher than the prices seen in early January. But the issue is that this only reflects Crude Barrels – refined petrol products have well exceeded this rise worldwide, particularly in Asia.

The issue is that the narrative is shifting from a 4-5-week short war to the actual pricing of a much longer, more painful conflict. The media is blaming the US government for its lack of "exit plans".

Hence, Inflation expectations are racing higher, Yields are rising above their 2026 peaks, and cuts are being priced out, replaced by hikes, making the overall situation look quite grim.

Rate Cuts are disappearing – Source: Bloomberg – March 13, 2026

The US Fed Funds rate cut pricing went from close to 65 bps to the current below ~20 bps. President Trump is proving Powell right yet again.

The only one enjoying the ride is the Petrodollar, which serves as the denominator for much more expensive Crude and loves the pricing out of cuts. The issue is that, at the current point in the economic cycle, this could pose heavy restraints on the economy.

Tracking upcoming data (particularly labor and manufacturing activity) and next week's Fed communications will be essential to get a better idea of what's coming.

The USD correlation with oil rises is once again pretty evident. Hence, it will be essential for traders to monitor the Dollar Index's movements to track overall Market flows in the coming period.

Oil and Dollar Index Positive Correlation. March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView

On a brighter note (if we can call it such, there's nothing really bright about war), the US and Israel are making some strong advances to their strategy, with 90% of drone and ballistic missile launchers destroyed, and similar damage to the IRGC's military production sites.

The idea is that if Iran doesn't want to throw in the towel, and the US and Israel insist on inflicting mortifying blows to its enemy, Markets will have to count on the latter to hope for a shorter conflict.

To me, we are not at maximum Market fear yet, but there is a high chance that fears will get overblown. This could provide decent opportunities in the coming weeks.

Oil and Strait of Hormuz developments are, for now, the two largest threats to general Market pricing, so keep the two in check.

(And don't forget about the Private Credit trouble lurking out from far)

Weekly Performance across Asset Classes

Weekly Asset Performance – March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Metals were the worst performers of this week's action, and by far.

As long as Oil maintains a higher path, traders can expect similar flows ; That is, as long as Strait of Hormuz traffic doesn't pick up.

The Week Ahead – Major Central Bank decisions

Asia Pacific Markets – Royal Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan's Rate Decisions

APAC Traders will see the release of China's Industrial Production Numbers and Retail Sales, two key releases to track the second largest economy and particularly if the effect of their local supportive policies have been working.

This should have a slight influence on AUD prices, but some other releases should mark the strongest 2026 performance even more.

Monday evening welcomes the Royal Bank of Australia's rate decision, when a hike is about 80% priced.

This would bring the Australian rate to 4.35%, largely the highest for Major currencies (also erasing the 2025 very temporary rate cuts).

Aussie Dollar traders will also look for communication hints towards Wednesday's Employment Data for Australia.

Kiwi GDP data for 2025 will also finally release, so that should also get the NZD in the spotlight.

Thursday will bring the final major Market catalyst, with the Bank of Japan's Rate Decision. A hike is about 10% priced in for next week; A surprise hike would surely change a lot to the current Yen weakness, but to me, it wouldn't be so uncalled for after recent JPY weakness.

If the BoJ doesn't deliver, April will be the next rate hike target.

Europe and UK Markets – An intense Thursday Session

Europe will be mostly muted throughout next Week, but that wouldn't include Thursday's triple threat.

Currency traders will have a lot to work with between the UK Employment Data, but most importantly the Swiss National Bank, Bank of England and ECB Rate Decisions, all in the same day (and in that order).

North American Markets – Bank of Canada and FOMC

Canada will open the week with its Inflation data, but the largest day for North American Markets will surely be Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada and the FOMC will release their rate decisions, with no change expected.

Keep a very close eye and ear to what Powell has to say during his Press conference.

And don't forget the US PPI release!

Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran talks, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.

Next Week's High Tier Economic Events

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

March 13th Market Wrap

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Today marked a decent rebound in Cryptocurrencies which really stand out from the recent Market trends.

Apart from that, Oil bounces higher again despite its pullback attempt, and the US Dollar found new highs against most of its FX peers, particularly Antipodeans and Europeans.

The Dollar Index is now trading above its November peak.

In terms of economic data, releases were soft. Core PCE came in softer than expected (2.8% vs 2.9% exp), University of Michigan barely moved (which is a good sign these days), and Canadian employment shrugged by 89.3K (!).

This could somewhat ease inflationary fears, but this would more likely have its effect on Monday (as weekend risk gets unrolled, if there's valid reasons to do so!)

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!