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US ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7 in April, signaling continued expansion in the sector and broadly aligning with a moderate growth outlook. Based on historical relationships, the reading corresponds to around 1.8% annualized GDP growth, suggesting that manufacturing is still contributing positively to overall economic activity.

Beneath the headline, the details were mixed. New orders improved from 53.5 to 54.1, indicating firm demand conditions, while production eased from 55.1 to 53.4, pointing to some moderation in output momentum. The labor market remains a weak spot, with the employment index falling further from 48.7 to 46.4, highlighting ongoing softness in hiring within the sector.

The most notable development was the sharp rise in price pressures. The Prices Index surged from 78.3 to 84.6, extending a three-month increase of 25.6 points and reaching its highest level since April 2022. This reflects intensifying cost pressures, driven in part by supply disruptions and higher energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Sentiment among manufacturers remains cautious. During the second month of the Iran War, 69% of comments were negative compared to 31% positive, with nearly half referencing the conflict and others highlighting tariffs.

Full US ISM Manufacturing release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3502; (P) 1.3557; (R1) 1.3660; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.3158 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 1.3158 to 1.3598 from 1.3453 at 1.3725 first. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3453 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1677; (P) 1.1709; (R1) 1.1764; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral, and further rise is in favor with 1.1642 support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1642 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1530). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.55; (P) 157.63; (R1) 159.71; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside, and fall from 160.71 would extend lower towards 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). Strong support should emerge there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 157.58 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 153.90) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7773; (P) 0.7848; (R1) 0.7891; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for 0.7774 and then 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7656. On the upside, above 0.7829 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7923 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8053) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Dollar remains firmly on the defensive as markets head into the US session, with selling pressure picking up once again. Despite a busy geopolitical backdrop, the greenback is being weighed down by a strong risk-on environment that continues to dominate market thinking.

April delivered a powerful signal for equities. US stock markets closed the month on a strong note, with even the underperforming DOW registering its best performance since November 2024. A robust earnings season has reinforced the narrative that corporate profits remain resilient, helping to sustain the rally into May.

Crucially, investors are showing a growing willingness to ignore geopolitical risks. The ongoing tensions surrounding the Iran conflict have done little to dent sentiment, as markets focus instead on growth prospects and the durability of the tech-driven expansion story.

The political backdrop remains complex, however. US President Donald Trump is facing a key 60-day deadline under the War Powers Resolution related to the Iran conflict. While the timeline technically expires today, the administration has argued that a ceasefire reached in early April effectively ended hostilities, removing the need for further Congressional approval.

Officials have emphasized that the lack of direct military engagement since April 7 means the legal framework no longer applies. While this interpretation leaves room for prolonged tension, markets are treating it as a sign that escalation risks are contained for now.

Oil markets reflect that view. Brent crude, while still elevated, has retreated toward $115, suggesting that traders are not positioning for a near-term escalation. The easing in oil prices has also reduced one of the key pillars of recent Dollar strength, contributing to the currency’s ongoing weakness.

In FX markets, the divergence is clear. Yen remains the standout performer, supported by intervention dynamics and a sharp reversal in positioning. Loonie is holding firm on oil support, while Aussie benefits from improving risk sentiment.

Dollar, by contrast, is lagging across the board, with Euro and Kiwi also underperforming. Sterling and Swiss Franc are sitting in the middle of the pack, reflecting a more mixed set of influences.

UK Manufacturing PMI Finalized at Near Four-Year High, but Cost Pressures Surge

UK manufacturing is rebounding—but rising costs are a warning sign. Supply disruptions are pushing inflation pressures higher. Read More

Tokyo Inflation Cools to Multi-Year Low, but Energy Risks Point to Rebound Ahead

Tokyo inflation is cooling—but not for long. Subsidies are masking price pressures as energy costs threaten a rebound. Read More.

Japan Manufacturing PMI Jumps to 55.1, but Supply Strains Raise Sustainability Concerns

Japan’s factory sector is booming—but cracks are forming. Supply delays and rising costs could quickly reverse the gains. Read More.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7773; (P) 0.7848; (R1) 0.7891; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for 0.7774 and then 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7656. On the upside, above 0.7829 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7923 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8053) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

• Gold (XAU/USD) is sliding due to heightened fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict and increased US Dollar strength.
• Technical analysis confirms a structural shift to bearish on the H4 chart, breaking key support levels
• Bulls' ultimate "line in the sand" is the major psychological support at $4,500, with the short-term outlook remaining bearish while the price stays below the $4,601–$4,615 resistance zone.

Gold prices fell in early European trade today as markets saw fears rise of a prolonged Middle East conflict. This comes at a time when major Central Banks including the Federal Reserve, ECB and BoE warned this week that a prolonged conflict could have significant implications for inflation and thus monetary policy.

Reports suggest the US might launch new military attacks on Iran. This renews worries for market participants that the situation will get even worse and lead to more fighting. Due to the US dollar being seen as the safest money to hold during scary times, these tensions actually make the dollar stronger.

However, when the dollar is strong and the world is focused on this type of conflict, it usually weighs on the price of gold. Add to that the inflation picture and Gold bulls may struggle in the near-term until clarity is forthcoming.

The Higher Timeframe: H4 Chart Analysis

On the H4 timeframe, the structural shift from bullish to bearish is evident. Gold has broken below several key horizontal support levels, most notably the 4,700 and 4,668 handles.

The price is currently trading well below both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (MA - Blue) and the 200-period MA (Orange).

The RSI on this timeframe is hovering near the 40 mark; while not yet oversold, it suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The major psychological level of 4,500 stands as the ultimate "line in the sand" for bulls.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

The Intermediate View: H1 Chart Analysis

The H1 chart highlights the rejection at the 4,615 resistance level, which aligns closely with the 100-hour MA. After a brief corrective bounce on April 30th, the price failed to reclaim the 4,620 area, resulting in a sharp sell-off during the early May 1st sessions.

We can observe that the 4,601 level, previously a support zone, has now transitioned into a formidable resistance.

The H1 RSI shows a series of lower highs, indicating that buying exhaustion is setting in every time the metal attempts a minor recovery.

As long as Gold remains capped by the 4,601–4,615 zone, the short-term outlook remains decidedly bearish.

Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, May 1, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Intraday Outlook: M15 Potential Scenarios

The M15 chart provides a granular look at the current price action, which is currently consolidating after a drop toward the 4,560 area. The intraday trend is defined by the 100-period MA (Blue) providing constant dynamic resistance.

The Bearish Scenario

The immediate focus for bears is a break below the recent swing low at 4,560. If the New York session brings further dollar strength or higher yields, a break of this level could trigger a rapid descent toward the 4,520 support area, followed by the major psychological floor at 4,500. Any rallies toward the 4,586 (200 MA) or 4,601 levels are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities by intraday traders.

The Bullish Scenario

For a bullish recovery to take shape, XAU/USD needs a sustained break above the 4,601 pivot level. A "Bullish Divergence" on the M15 RSI (where price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low) would be the first signal of a potential reversal. If bulls can reclaim 4,614, it opens the door for a corrective move back toward 4,640.

However, given the current alignment of the moving averages, any move higher is currently classified as a "dead cat bounce" rather than a trend reversal.

Technical Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 4,586, 4,601, 4,615
• Support: 4,560, 4,520, 4,500

Gold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart, May 1, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.7 in April, up strongly and marking the highest level since May 2022. The rebound reflects a recovery from March’s weakness, with output, new orders, and employment all improving, while staffing levels rose for the first time in 18 months.

However, the strength comes with clear underlying strains. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, supply chain disruptions linked to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz are significantly affecting input deliveries. Supplier lead times lengthened at the fastest pace in almost four years, while input price inflation surged to near a four-year high, highlighting intensifying cost pressures across the sector.

As Rob Dobson noted, part of the current output strength reflects front-loaded demand rather than sustained momentum. “The gain in production is partly the result of clients bringing forward purchases,” he said, warning that growth could cool later in the year as this effect unwinds. At the same time, elevated cost pressures suggest inflation risks will remain a key concern for the sector.

Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) ended its correction from the April 2025 low at 6319.68, which we identify as wave (2). From that level, the Index advanced in wave (3) and broke to a new all‑time high. This confirmed the start of the next bullish leg and established a bullish sequence from the April 2025 low. The 100% Fibonacci extension target for wave (3) is projected at 8476.

Wave (3) is unfolding as an impulsive Elliott Wave structure, with wave 1 of (3) approaching completion. From the wave (2) low, wave ((i)) advanced to 6609.67. A corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) followed, ending at 6474.94. The Index then rallied in wave ((iii)) toward 7147.52. A modest retracement in wave ((iv)) concluded at 7046.55. The final leg, wave ((v)) of 1, should end soon, completing the cycle from the March 31, 2026 low. Afterward, the Index will enter wave 2, correcting the cycle from the March 31 low, before resuming its broader rally.

In the near term, as long as the pivot at 6319.68 remains intact, pullbacks should find support within a three‑ or seven‑swing sequence. This reinforces the bullish outlook and suggests further upside potential as the larger trend continues to progress.

S&P 500 (SPX) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

SPX Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXA9Bj7ciDU

EUR/USD started a fresh increase above 1.1700 and 1.1720. USD/CHF declined further and is now struggling below 0.7835.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent increase from 1.1650 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1685 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.7865 and 0.7850 support levels.
•  There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7910 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.1650 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.1700 barrier to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.

There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1685. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1720. Finally, the pair cleared 1.1735. A high was formed near 1.1740 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

An Immediate bid zone on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1655 swing low to the 1.1740 high at 1.1720.

The next area of interest could be near 1.1700, the 50% Fib retracement level, and the 50-hour simple moving average. A downside break below 1.1700 might send the pair toward 1.1675. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.1650.

If there is a fresh increase, an immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is 1.1750. The first major pivot level for the bulls could be 1.1755. An upside break above 1.1755 might send the pair to 1.1800. The next selling zone could be 1.1850. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 1.1920.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from well above 0.7900. The US Dollar dropped below 0.7880 to move into a negative zone against the Swiss Franc.

There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7910. The bears pushed the pair below the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7850. Finally, the bulls appeared near 0.7800. A low was formed near 0.7805, and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, the pair could face bears near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7925 swing high to the 0.7805 low at 0.7835.

The first major resistance sits near the 50% Fib retracement level at 0.7865. The main barrier for an upside break could be near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.7880. A daily close above 0.7880 could start a fresh increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward 0.7925. The next stop for the bulls might be 0.7965.

On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is 0.7805. The first major breakdown zone could be 0.7780. A close below 0.7780 might send the pair to 0.7750. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7700 in the coming days.

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