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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3564; (P) 1.3579; (R1) 1.3608; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as this point. Fall from 1.3965 is in progress for retesting 1.380 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3709 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7180; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7225; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Recent up trend should be resuming for 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Dollar is starting the week on a soft footing, and even a strong US non-farm payroll report this week may not be enough to reverse that trend. Markets are increasingly positioned around a counterintuitive dynamic where solid economic data supports risk appetite rather than the greenback, limiting the traditional upside response.

Last week’s weakness in Dollar was driven by a confluence of factors, including firm risk sentiment, expectations that other major central banks may tighten further, and a temporary surge in Yen strength linked to suspected intervention. The impact of Yen is likely to fade unless Dollar attempts another push toward the 160 level during Japan’s Golden Week holidays.

Geopolitical tensions, while still present, have taken a back seat for now. The focus is turning firmly toward risk markets and monetary policy expectations, both of which are set to be heavily influenced by this week’s April NFP report.

The key question for markets is whether March’s strong payroll gain was an outlier or the beginning of a renewed growth in hiring. Any downward revision to prior data, alongside developments in wage growth and unemployment, will be closely scrutinized for signals on underlying labor market momentum.

However, even a strong NFP print may not deliver sustained support to the Dollar. Solid job growth would reinforce the view that the Fed will remain on hold, delaying rate cuts further. But with inflation risks still tied to external factors like energy, a stronger labor market alone is unlikely to shift expectations toward renewed tightening.

Instead, stronger data could reinforce risk-on sentiment, particularly in equities, as it signals resilience in growth despite elevated rates and geopolitical uncertainty. In that scenario, capital may continue to flow into higher-yielding and risk-sensitive assets, limiting upside for the Dollar.

This dynamic creates a clear asymmetry in Dollar reaction. Markets are currently biased to sell the greenback, meaning that weak data is likely to trigger a sharper downside move than any upside generated by strong data. The reaction function is no longer balanced.

A downside surprise in payrolls, or a rise in the unemployment rate toward the 4.4%–4.5% range, would likely accelerate Dollar losses. In such a scenario, markets could quickly shift toward concerns that the Fed is behind the curve, raising fears of a harder economic landing and prompting broad USD selling.

Conversely, a strong NFP outcome may simply reinforce the current equilibrium: no cuts, but no hikes either. That outcome would support risk sentiment rather than the Dollar itself, leaving USD gains limited and potentially short-lived.

For now, the Dollar is stuck in a “heads you win, tails I lose” setup. Weak data undermines confidence and drives selling, while strong data fuels risk appetite that diverts flows away from the greenback. Unless there is a major shift in geopolitics or Fed signaling, this asymmetric risk profile is likely to keep Dollar under pressure in the near term.

For the day so far, Dollar is currently the worst performer, followed by Aussie, and then Loonie. Kiwi the strongest, followed by Yen, and then Swiss Franc. Euro and Sterling are positioning in the middle.

Bitcoin Tests $80K as ETF Flows, Options Expiry, and Supply Wall Collide

Bitcoin’s rally is hitting a decisive moment at $80K, where ETF demand, options positioning, and a major supply wall are all converging. While Nasdaq-driven liquidity is pushing prices higher, fading ETF inflows and heavy derivatives resistance could cap gains. A clean breakout would open the path toward $85K, but failure risks a deeper pullback. Read More.

Fed's Kashkari, Hammack and Logan Reject Easing Bias, Say Next Move Could Be Hike or Cut

Three Fed officials are pushing back against expectations of further rate cuts, warning that policy is no longer on a one-way path. Dissenters at last week's FOMC meeting argue the next move could be either a hike or a cut as inflation risks from geopolitical tensions rise. The shift signals growing uncertainty and could force markets to reprice Fed expectations. Read More.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7180; (P) 0.7204; (R1) 0.7225; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Recent up trend should be resuming for 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Bitcoin’s near-term rally is extending into a critical test of the $80k psychological barrier, with price action now entering a zone where multiple drivers converge. The move has been supported by strong risk appetite, with NASDAQ extending its record run, but the real question is whether this external tailwind is enough to overcome structural resistance building just overhead.

The broader backdrop remains firmly risk-on. As tech stocks push higher, liquidity continues to spill into high-beta assets, with Bitcoin acting as a key beneficiary of the “buy everything” environment. This correlation has been a major driver of recent upside.

However, the rally is now running into a more complex set of constraints. A large concentration of call options expiring in May and June is clustered around the $80k strike. This creates a classic “magnet effect,” pulling price toward that level, but also raises the risk of selling pressure as market makers hedge their exposure. As a result, $80k is shaping up not just as a target, but as a battleground.

On-chain data reinforces the significance of this zone. Roughly 475,000 BTC were last transacted between $77,800 and $80,880, forming a dense supply area. This suggests a substantial amount of potential profit-taking from holders who may look to exit near breakeven. For the rally to sustain, Bitcoin needs to hold above $78,500 for several sessions, signaling that fresh demand—likely institutional—is absorbing this overhead supply.

That demand has so far been driven primarily by spot Bitcoin ETFs. April saw a strong $2.44B in net inflows, nearly doubling the previous month and providing a solid foundation for the rally. However, momentum showed signs of cooling late in the month, with $490M in outflows during the final week. The near-term outlook now hinges on whether inflows can return to consistent $100M+ daily levels. Without that support, the push above $80k risks stalling.

Technically, the structure of the rebound from the 59,866 low still appears corrective. Price is now testing a confluence of resistance, including the upper boundary of a rising channel, 80,492 level (former support turned resistance), and the $80k psychological mark. This cluster significantly increases the likelihood of rejection on first attempt.

A pullback from current levels, followed by a break below 74,880 support, would argue that the rebound from 59,866 has completed, shifting focus back toward that low. Such a move would align with a broader medium-term bearish view and suggest that recent gains were part of a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal.

On the other hand, sustained break above $80k would mark a decisive shift in structure. It would open the path toward 38.2% retracement of 126,289 to 59,866 at 85,239, strengthening the case that a broader trend reversal is underway.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh increase from the 1.1650 support zone.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1710 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.3550 resistance.
• USD/JPY started a consolidation phase after a sharp decline to 155.50.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained supported above 1.1650 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD formed a base and started a fresh increase above 1.1700.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1710. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1849 swing high to the 1.1655 low.

However, the bears were active near the 1.1775 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level. The pair is now consolidating just below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and is well above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 1.1750. The first major resistance sits at 1.1775. The main resistance could be 1.1840. A close above 1.1840 could open doors for gains above 1.1865. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1920.

Immediate support is seen near 1.1700. The next support could be 1.1650. A close below 1.1650 might push the pair toward 1.1600. Any more losses could initiate a fresh move to 1.1550 in the coming days.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair is attempting a fresh increase, and a close above 1.3620 could trigger steady gains.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 - Forecast 51.2, versus 51.2 previous.
• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 – Forecast 52.2, versus 52.2 previous.

Federal Reserve dissenters pushed back forcefully against the central bank’s perceived easing bias, signaling growing uncertainty over the policy path just days after the April 29 meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said current guidance is widely interpreted as pointing to a rate cut, but argued the Fed should instead make clear that “the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves.”

Kashkari was joined by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, all of whom supported holding rates steady last week but objected to language implying further easing.

Hammack described the wording as a “clear easing bias” that is “no longer appropriate given the outlook,” while Logan warned that forward guidance should reflect “two-sided risks” rather than signaling a directional lean toward cuts.

The pushback highlights a widening divide within the Fed as policymakers reassess the impact of the Middle East conflict and its implications for inflation. While the statement retained flexibility by referring to “additional adjustments,” dissenters argue markets are interpreting it as a continuation of the easing cycle, potentially loosening financial conditions prematurely.

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin reversed from support level 75000.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 80000.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the support level 75000.00 (former strong resistance from March), intersecting with the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse from March.

The upward reversal from the support level 75000.00 continues the active sharp intermediate impulse wave (C) from March. Given the bullish sentiment seen across the crypto markets, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the resistance level 80000.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward to the next resistance level 85000.00.

Dollar’s broader weakness reasserted itself last week, even as it managed a modest late rebound against Euro. Across the board, however, the greenback remains under pressure, with underlying momentum and sentiment pointing to further downside ahead. Technically and fundamentally, Dollar is now skating on thin ice, with recent price action suggesting the near-term rebound has already run its course.

The weakness is not driven by a single catalyst but rather a convergence of forces that are reshaping global markets. Strong risk-on sentiment has reduced demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, shifting central bank dynamics are eroding Dollar’s advantage. Adding to these, a sharp and unexpected reversal in Japanese Yen has acted as a powerful trigger, accelerating repositioning and amplifying downside pressure on the greenback.

Taken together, these three drivers—equity market strength, policy divergence, and Yen intervention—are creating a powerful combination. What stands out is not just the presence of these factors, but their alignment.

AI-Led Earnings Surge Drives Risk Rally to Record Highs

Risk-on sentiment was the dominant force in markets last week, with US equities extending their rally to fresh record highs. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed the week strongly, capping what turned out to be their best monthly performances since 2020. Even the more cyclical DOW posted its strongest gain since November 2024, underscoring the breadth of the move.

The rally was driven by a powerful earnings season that decisively beat expectations. Analysts had entered the quarter concerned that elevated interest rates and rising energy costs would compress corporate margins. Instead, results showed that companies have been able to maintain pricing power and manage costs effectively, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

Technology stocks, particularly those linked to artificial intelligence, remained at the center of the advance. Alphabet and Microsoft delivered strong results, highlighting that massive investments in AI are now translating into tangible revenue growth. Cloud and enterprise services showed particularly strong momentum, confirming that the AI theme is evolving beyond early-stage infrastructure spending into real-world implementation and monetization.

Perhaps most importantly, this equity strength persisted despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Markets largely shrugged off the risks surrounding the Middle East conflict, with traders appearing increasingly desensitized to headlines. Instead, the focus remained firmly on growth prospects and earnings momentum. As long as this dynamic holds, risk appetite is likely to stay elevated, continuing to weigh on the Dollar and shape broader market direction.

Technically, the long term up trend in equities remains firmly intact, with both S&P 500 and NASDAQ maintaining strong bullish structures. The recent breakout to record highs reinforces the view that the current uptrend is not yet exhausted, especially as pullbacks remain shallow and well-supported.

For S&P 500, near-term outlook stays bullish as long as 7,046.55 support holds. The next upside target is 61.8% projection of 4,835.04 to 6,902.34 from 6,316.91 at 7,605.63 .

A similar structure is seen in NASDAQ. As long as 24,199.00 support holds, the current uptrend is expected to extend toward 61.8% projection of 14,784.03 to 24,019.99 from 20,690.25 at 26,398.07.

Hawkish Convergence Outside Fed Pressures Dollar

A key driver behind Dollar weakness last week was the shifting outlook of global monetary policy.

For the Federal Reserve, the decision to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% was widely expected, but the internal dynamics were anything but calm. The meeting saw four dissents—the highest since 1992—with three regional presidents (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) opposing the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. This reflects growing concern within the Committee that inflation risks remain elevated and that policy may not yet be restrictive enough.

Despite this hawkish dissent, the broader message from the Fed remains one of patience. With rates mildly restrictive at 3.50-3.75%, there is no urgency to tighten further. Market pricing reflects this balance, with around a 77% probability that rates will remain unchanged through year-end. Expectations for a rate cut have dropped sharply to roughly 12%. The Fed is no longer the most hawkish player—only that it is also not ready to ease.

The Bank of England, by contrast, is tilting more clearly toward tightening. The April 30 decision to hold at 3.75% came with an 8–1 vote split, with Chief Economist Huw Pill dissenting in favor of an immediate 25bps hike. His position highlights growing concern about persistent inflation, particularly from energy-driven cost pressures and the risk of second-round effects.

Markets have taken this signal seriously. Pricing for a June rate hike has settled around 60%, after jumping to 70% just after the rate announcement. Total tightening expectations stand at roughly 65bps for the year. Even as the BoE acknowledges fragile growth conditions, the bias is shifting toward further tightening,.

The European Central Bank is also moving closer to action. While it held its deposit rate at 2.00%, President Christine Lagarde’s neutral tone was quickly overshadowed by reports that policymakers are preparing for a June hike if energy prices remain elevated. The ECB is seen as “patiently waiting” rather than firmly on hold.

This shift is being driven by inflation dynamics. The jump in April CPI to 3.0%, combined with Lagarde’s acknowledgment that the Eurozone is moving toward the “adverse scenario,” has pushed markets to price in a 90% probability of a June hike. Expectations now extend to three 25bps increases by the end of 2026, targeting a terminal rate of 2.75%.

Perhaps the most dramatic shift is taking place in Japan. The Bank of Japan’s 6–3 vote on April 28 marked a significant departure from its historically unified stance. The three dissenters—Nakagawa, Takata, and Tamura—pushed for an immediate hike to 1.00%, arguing that the central bank risks falling behind the curve as inflation pressures build.

This internal split was reinforced by a sharp upward revision in the 2026 inflation forecast to 2.8%, a level well above the traditional target range. Market expectations have adjusted rapidly, with the probability of a June rate hike rising to around 74%. July remains a fallback option, particularly if geopolitical risks intensify and threaten growth.

Taken together, these developments highlight a clear convergence in global policy tightening. While the Fed remains on hold, others are catching up or even overtaking in terms of hawkish bias. This narrowing of rate differentials is a key structural driver of Dollar weakness, and unless the Fed reasserts its leadership, the pressure on the greenback is likely to persist.

Intervention Shock Triggers Yen Surge

The most dramatic development in FX markets last week was the sudden and forceful reversal in Japanese Yen. After USD/JPY breached the critical 160 "red line", Japanese authorities drew a clear line in the sand. What followed was a sharp and aggressive move that caught markets off guard and triggered a broad reassessment of positioning.

Intervention appears to have been decisive. Estimates suggest that more than USD 30 billion was deployed across April 30 and May 1, with reports from Nikkei citing Bank of Japan data indicating roughly JPY5 trillion (USD 32 billion) in Yen-buying operations. The scale of the move underlines the authorities’ determination to halt speculative excess and restore stability to the currency.

The impact was immediate and far-reaching. Yen surged around 2.2%, driving USD/JPY down toward the 156 area. More importantly, the move forced a rapid unwind of crowded carry trades, amplifying the effect beyond the Yen itself. Dollar, already under pressure from other factors, faced additional downside as positions were liquidated across the board.

This episode was not just about price action—it was a warning shot. The intervention effectively reintroduced two-way risk into what had become a one-sided market. Traders who had been comfortable pushing USD/JPY higher were forced to reassess, and opportunistic buying of Yen emerged as markets began to test how far authorities are willing to defend the currency.

Technically, the sharp fall from 160.71 suggests that a medium-term top should have been formed, reinforced by bearish divergence on D MACD. Nevertheless, the subsequent decline is now viewed as a correction of the broader uptrend from 139.87, rather than a full reversal—at least for now.

Near-term risks point to a deeper pullback toward the 152.25–152.74 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). . Strong support is expected in this area, which should contain downside and allow for a rebound. In the meantime, USD/JPY is likely to consolidate within a broad 152–160 range, with future direction dependent on both policy developments and global risk dynamics.

DXY Bearish Bias Remains Intact for Retesting 95.55 Low

Dollar Index’s recovery last week did little to alter the broader bearish outlook. The rebound from 95.55 should have completed at 100.64, falling short of 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 95.55 at 101.13. This failure to sustain gains reinforces the view that the move higher was corrective rather than the start of a new trend.

The rejection at key technical levels adds weight to this interpretation. Notably, DXY was turned back below both the 101.13 Fibonacci resistance and 55 W EMA, currently around 99.49. These levels have acted as a firm ceiling, keeping the medium-term bias tilted to the downside and signaling that sellers remain in control.

In the near term, the focus shifts to 97.63 support. Decisive break below this level would confirm the resumption of the decline from 100.64 and open the way for a retest of 95.55 low.

That said, downside momentum has not yet fully accelerated. While the bias remains bearish, the current pace of decline does not yet signal an imminent breakdown. Markets may require additional catalysts—such as further policy divergence or sustained risk-on flows—to trigger a more decisive decline through 95.55.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3965 continued last week after brief recovery. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3709 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3581) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.