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Gold price fell at the start of the week, losing around 1.8% by mid-European trading on Monday, reflecting growing concerns about rising inflation that prompted major central banks to take more hawkish stance, despite that all of them kept rates unchanged in the policy meetings last week.

On the other hand, high geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the latest signals about possible escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, partially counters the action and provides headwinds for fresh bears.

Technical picture on daily chart remains bearishly aligned after recent recovery attempts were capped just under the base of thick descending daily Ichimoku cloud, with Friday’s Doji and today’s large bearish candle, about to complete reversal pattern.

Converging daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen are about to form a bear cross and along with strengthening negative momentum and DMAs in full bearish setup, contribute to negative near-term outlook.

Bears pressure pivotal $4500 support zone, consisting of last Wednesday’s one-month low and Fibo 50% retracement of $4099/$4899, violation of which to further weaken near-term structure and expose targets at $4401 (Fibo 61.8%) and $4285 (200DMA / Fibo 76.4%) in extension.

Initial resistance lays at $4587 (broken Fibo 38.2%), followed by $4631/41 (daily Kijun-sen / Tenkan-sen respectively) and key obstacle at $4665 (daily cloud base).

Res: 4587; 4641; 4700; 4740.
Sup: 4510; 4494; 4401; 4351.

The ECB’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters points to a worsening macro mix for the Eurozone, with higher inflation and weaker growth in the near term. Headline HICP inflation is now expected to rise from 1.8% to 2.7% for 2026 and from 2.0% to 2.1% for 2027, while remaining stable at 2.0% in 2028. Core inflation was also revised higher, from 2.0% to 2.2% for both 2026 and 2027.

At the same time, growth expectations have been downgraded. Real GDP is downgraded from 1.2% to 1.0% in 2026 and from 1.4% to 1.3% in 2027, reflecting the drag from higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. While forecasts for 2028 and the longer term remain unchanged at 1.3%, the near-term downgrade highlights rising concerns about economic momentum.

The labor market outlook remains stable, with unemployment expectations unchanged at 6.3% for 2026, easing gradually to 6.1% by 2028. However, wage growth projections have been revised higher, from 3.0% to 3.3% for 2026 and from 2.9% to 3.1% for 2027, suggesting continued pressure on costs that could feed into broader inflation dynamics.

Overall, the survey reinforces a stagflationary tilt in the Eurozone outlook. While inflation is expected to return to target over the longer term, the near-term combination of rising prices and slowing growth presents a clear challenge for the ECB.

Full ECB SPF release here.

• Japan has spent $34 billion on market interventions.
• The futures market has revised its outlook on Fed interest rates.

At the end of last week, the US dollar retreated to early March levels of 97.60, having rebounded to 98.10 at the time of writing. The catalyst for the USD index’s plunge at the end of last week was the markets’ reassessment of the Fed’s rate outlook and Donald Trump’s announcement that the US would begin withdrawing commercial vessels from the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, investors’ doubts that the world’s main oil artery would be restored allowed the greenback to recover.

Before the April FOMC meeting, the futures market had priced in a low probability of a rate cut. The emergence of three dissenting voices on the committee increased the chances of monetary tightening and ruled out easing. However, the rhetoric of Fed members is once again shifting the situation.

Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis believes that the next move could be either a hike or a cut. Beth Hammack of Cleveland argues that rising uncertainty makes monetary policy itself more uncertain. Lori Logan of Dallas is concerned that it will take a long time for inflation to return to target. As a result, the futures market paints a balanced picture, with an 11.5% probability of both a cut and a hike in the federal funds rate in 2026, and a 77% chance of it remaining at the current level. This reassessment has deprived the dollar of significant support.

Investors are not yet giving much thought to the economic outlook. According to ECB Executive Board member Yannis Stournaras, concerns about a recession in the eurozone are real and justified. Conversely, the number of media mentions of a US economic downturn is declining.

The resumption of the trade war could add fuel to the fire of diverging economic growth. Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on European cars, citing the EU’s alleged failure to meet the terms of the agreement. A symmetrical response risks causing more harm to the eurozone than to the US.

Meanwhile, USDJPY bulls are trying to recover after Japanese authorities intervened in the forex market. Bloomberg estimated the cost of these interventions at 5.4 trillion yen ($34 billion). In 2024, Tokyo intervened in the market four times, with an average volume of around 3.8 trillion yen. On the intraday charts for Friday and Monday, resistance is clearly visible at 157.3 for USDJPY and 184.5 for EURJPY. This looks like a continuation of interventions aimed at establishing a trend of lower local highs and convincing the market of the sustainability of this reversal so that it becomes self-sustaining.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has risen by 1.4% over the past 24 hours and by roughly the same amount over the past 7 days, reaching $2.64T. At its peak at the start of the day, the market reached $2.67T, a level last seen in early February. A slow but steady recovery has been observed since early April, recouping half of the losses incurred during the just over one-week slump that began in late January. Over the past 24 hours, the leaders have been Dash (+30%), Basic Attention Token (+10.2%) and Zcash (+7.8%). Even the laggards are showing gains: TRUMP (+0.1%), Algorand (+0.6%) and Near (+0.5%).

Bitcoin slipped to $80.6K at the start of trading on Monday. We last saw such levels at the end of January. The rising price and the downward-sloping 200-day moving average are actively converging with an important long-term trend line at $83.6K. Consolidation above this level could further encourage traders, but we would prefer to see consolidation above $85K first, the former support zone from November to January.

According to SoSoValue, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs amounted to $153.9 million over the week. In April, investors poured $1.97 billion into US Bitcoin ETFs, the highest figure since October 2025.

Inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs halted after three weeks of inflows. Net outflows from ETH ETFs amounted to $82.5 million for the week. Over the past month, investors poured $356 million into US Ethereum ETFs.

Perpetual futures fuelled Bitcoin’s April rally, while spot demand remained in negative territory. This divergence points to the speculative nature of the movement, CryptoQuant notes.

Bitcoin’s market capitalisation could grow almost 11-fold by 2030, to $16 trillion, according to forecasts by ARK Invest. This will occur if cryptocurrencies evolve into an asset class present in investment portfolios worldwide.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated during legal proceedings against OpenAI that he considers most cryptocurrencies to be fraudulent schemes. Users criticised Musk for hypocrisy.

Tether has published its financial report for the first quarter of 2026, audited by BDO. The stablecoin issuer’s net profit stood at $1.04 billion. The company’s total assets reached $191.7 billion, with liabilities of $183.5 billion. Excess reserves rose to a record $8.23 billion.

Gold is holding at around 4,611 USD per ounce on Monday as markets assess Donald Trump’s proposal to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside tentative signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations.

The plan involves assisting civilian ships from neutral countries in safely leaving the conflict zone and restoring access to the shipping route. At the same time, Iran has stated that it is reviewing the US response to its latest proposal, which has helped support hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

However, the conflict, now entering its tenth week, continues to drive energy prices higher and intensify inflationary pressures. This has reinforced expectations that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, or even tighten policy further if inflation risks persist.
Since the beginning of the confrontation, gold has remained under pressure and has lost around 12% of its value. At the same time, data from the World Gold Council show that central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, providing underlying support for long-term demand.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating above the 4,600 USD evel. A move higher could open the way for a corrective rebound towards 4,704 USD. On the downside, a fresh decline towards 4,430 USD cannot be ruled out. The MACD indicator supports the current recovery bias: the signal line remains below the zero mark but continues to point firmly upwards, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,620 USD level and is extending its move towards 4,580. In the near term, a rebound towards 4,690 USD remains possible as a retest from below, followed by a potential pullback to 4,625 USD. After that, a further move higher towards 4,741 USD may develop. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line remaining below 50 and pointing lower towards 20, signalling short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Gold remains caught between cautious optimism over diplomacy and persistent inflation risks driven by the Middle East conflict. While short-term price action remains fragile, continued central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to provide underlying support for gold in the medium to longer term.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved from -19.2 to -16.4 in May, beating expectations of -20.5 and signaling a modest stabilization in sentiment. Both the Current Situation Index and Expectations Index also edged higher, rising from -22.8 to -21.5 and from -15.5 to -11.3 respectively, suggesting that investors are becoming less pessimistic about the near-term outlook.

The improvement appears to reflect easing fears of further escalation in the Middle East conflict, particularly around Iran. However, sentiment remains firmly in negative territory, underscoring that recession risks have not dissipated. At the same time, inflation concerns remain elevated, with Sentix’s inflation barometer still deeply negative, indicating persistent price pressures that continue to weigh on expectations.

This combination of weak growth and ongoing inflation risk highlights a difficult backdrop for the ECB. Fiscal dynamics are adding to the challenge, with the Sentix fiscal barometer at -29.5, pointing to mounting government debt pressures that could push interest rates higher. Rising borrowing costs, in turn, risk exacerbating already fragile economic conditions across the bloc.

Germany stands out as a clear underperformer. In contrast to the broader Eurozone stabilization, Germany’s overall index fell by 3.2 points, with both current conditions and expectations deteriorating further. The decline, coupled with political instability, signals that Europe’s largest economy is diverging onto a weaker path.

Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 52.2 in April, rising from March's 51.6 and marking a 47-month high, signaling a broad-based expansion across the bloc. Notably, all eight countries covered in the survey registered readings above the 50 threshold for the first time since June 2022.

The improvement was also reflected in output, with the Manufacturing PMI Output Index climbing from 52.0 to 52.3, an eight-month high. However, the underlying drivers of this growth raise concerns. Survey evidence suggests that production and new orders are being supported by precautionary stockpiling, as firms build inventories amid fears of supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

At the same time, inflation pressures are intensifying sharply. Input price inflation surged to its highest level in nearly four years, with firms passing on these costs at the fastest pace since January 2023. The scale of the increase is historically significant, with selling price inflation recording its strongest jump since the survey began in 1997, highlighting the severity of the cost shock.

According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, the data present a troubling mix for policymakers. While headline PMI figures appear robust, forward-looking indicators show deteriorating confidence, with future output expectations falling to a one-and-a-half-year low. The combination of slowing demand outlook and escalating cost pressures suggests that current growth may prove short-lived.

Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

Gold price is consolidating above the $2,565 support zone. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $96.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a recovery wave from $4,500 against the US Dollar.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,620 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $108 region and started a fresh decline.
•  There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $100.45 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found bids near the $4,500 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a recovery wave above $4,550.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $4,600. The bulls pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,740 swing high to the $4,510 low.

Besides, the price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,620. Immediate hurdle is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at $4,650.

The next key breakout level sits at $4,700. An upside break above $4,700 could send Gold price toward $4,740. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,850.

Initial bid zone on the downside could be $4,600. The first major buy zone sits at $4,565. If there is a downside break below $4,565, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward $4,510. Any more losses might push the price toward the $4,420 level.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $108 barrier against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $105.

The price even dipped below $100 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near $96.00. A low was formed at $96.04, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face sellers near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $107.62 swing high to the $96.04 low.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be near a connecting bearish trend line at $100.45, above which the price could rise and test the 61.8% Fib retracement level at $103.20.

Any more gains might send the price toward $105.65. The main breakout zone sits at $108. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit $96.00. The next major pivot zone on the WTI crude oil chart is $92.00.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $90.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $86.50 support zone.

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Markets

Focus went to the US last Friday with several European markets closed for May Day holiday. The US manufacturing ISM for the month of April was the defining intraday moment. While the headline ISM stabilized at 52.7, markets there was a striking further rise in the prices paid component (84.6 from 78.3) which hit its highest level since March 2022. There were 46 commodities reported up in price (vs 24 in March). ISM manufacturing chair Spence warned that prices in the US were already rising precipitously by the time the war started, suggesting that the pressure is more widespread. New orders inched up to 54.1 while the employment number stayed below the 50 equilibrium mark for the 31st straight month. US interest rate markets trade volatile around the release with an initial spike lower soon reversed. The spike lower coincided with Brent crude moving from around $111/b to $108/b. At the end of the day, there was a minor flattening with the front end up 1 bp and the long end down 1 bp. The slightly lower oil price correlated with a slightly weaker dollar intraday with EUR/USD setting a top near 1.1780. USD/JPY holds in the 156-157 area reached after Thursday’s FX interventions by the MoF.

Today’s trading volumes are skinned by public holidays in Japan, China and the UK. Risk sentiment on other bourses if positive this morning with SK Hynix and Samsung lifting spirits. They catch up with end of last week’s tech rally given local equity market closure. US President Trump’s “Operation Freedom” draws most attention this morning as he suggested that the US will begin guiding some neutral ships through Hormuz. The US Navy won’t be involved but the Central Command said that it would provide military support including guided-missile destroyers, aircraft and drones. Markets aren’t running ahead of themselves as Iran responded that such US infringement would be considered as violation of the cease-fire. Today’s eco calendar won’t inspire but an avalanche of ECB speakers and the central bank’s professional forecaster survey might do. First comments since last week’s policy meeting hinted at action in June. ECB Muller talked about an increasing likelihood of higher policy rates because of first signs of pass-through of higher energy prices and the fact that the latter will probably remain high for some time to come. German Bundesbank Nagel called a June hike appropriate if the outlook doesn’t markedly improve. He echoed ECB president Lagarde in that we are move away from the March baseline scenario which by the way already entailed a more restrictive monetary policy. ECB Makhlouf voiced concern about increasing inflation risks while the likes of Kocher, Sleijpen, Dolenc and Rehn referred to coming data to assess potential second round effects. EMU money markets attach a 90% probability to a June rate hike and almost discounting a cumulative 75 bps of tightening by year-end.

News & Views

Seven Members of the OPEC+ cartel (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) on Sunday had a virtual meeting and decided to a further rise in the production quota by 188k b/d by scaling back previous production caps. The decision comes as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) left the Cartel on April 28. The move is largely seen as symbolic as several members of the Cartel are not in a position to easily export higher production through the Strait of Hormuz and as production facilities have to be restored due to the impact of the war. UAE’s main oil company Adnoc in the meantime on Sunday also announced plans to accelerate production growth plans by committing $55bn investments to expand production capacity over the period 2026-2028.

Rating agency Fitch in a note at the end of last week indicated that structurally large fiscal deficits will keep the US’s debt burden far above that of other ‘AA’ category sovereigns. Fitch analyses that that US fiscal position will deteriorate further this year due to the tax cuts of the One Big Beautifull Bill even as half of this will be offset by tariff revenues. Fitch still expects a US general government deficit of 7.9% of GDP this year and next. This is expected to push an already high debt level above 120% by next year. Ageing-related spending pressures are increasing with social security and Medicare trust funds projected to be depleted within a decade. Fitch also mentions durability and revenue yield of tariffs and President Donald Trump’s call for higher defense spending as additional sources of fiscal uncertainty. The agency also mentions the Mid-term elections as important for fiscal governance and policy execution.

The new week kicks off on optimism – not that the Iranian war is coming to an end, and to be honest I try to look past the headlines as US leaders’ statements sound nothing more compelling than cheap propaganda – but on optimism that AI continues to mask the pain elsewhere, and that the picture for US manufacturers remains unclear as Friday’s data sent mixed signals. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast suggests that US economic growth may have accelerated to 3.5% in Q2 from around 2% in Q1, though it was revised slightly down from 3.7%. But anyway, corporate earnings clearly hint at resilience. With 63% of S&P 500 companies having reported so far, 84% have posted a positive EPS surprise and 81% a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet.

Banks and tech companies did particularly well in Q1 – on both sides of the Atlantic. European oil companies have navigated the Middle East chaos and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz gracefully, while the picture for US players such as ExxonMobil and Chevron is more mixed. Both reported earnings last Friday and beat expectations, but their profits fell in Q1 due to the Iran war disruptions. The reason for this divergence is that US and European oil giants play a different game: Europeans are not just oil producers, they are also major traders. So when disruption hits key routes like the Strait of Hormuz and prices jump, they can profit from the chaos by moving oil around and capturing price gaps, whereas US firms rely more on steady production, and weaker volumes appear to weigh on profitability as the trading upside is missing. In simple terms, oil company results weren’t just about higher prices, but about who could turn volatility into profits. And in Q1, Europeans did better – which is relatively rare.

That said, Exxon and Chevron couldn’t hold on to their better-than-expected results and gave back pre-market gains to finish the session more than 1% lower. For those who don’t like oil price volatility but still want exposure, oil majors remain an interesting play, with European companies standing out in the current context.

Crude oil kicked off the week slightly lower on news that the US would begin guiding ships not involved in the Iran conflict. But geopolitical uncertainty and hectic diplomacy suggest that price volatility will persist. OPEC met over the weekend –without the UAE for the first time in decades – and announced a slight increase in production quotas. However, with many members struggling to move oil due to near-closure conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, the decision is unlikely to impact short-term price dynamics. In the longer run, more supply should mean lower prices, but for now the global economy will continue to grapple with high energy costs.

Spirit Airlines shut down entirely after failing to secure funding or a bailout following years of losses, worsened by a spike in fuel costs linked to the Iran war.

Nonetheless, Asian indices kicked off the week with strong optimism. Japan was closed, but the Kospi rallied more than 4.5% to a fresh all-time high on AI enthusiasm, while TSMC surged nearly 7% in Taiwan. SoftBank – which was hit last week by news that OpenAI had not met internal targets due to rising competition – rebounded nearly 4% on Friday. Nasdaq futures are also leading gains this morning after the index reached a fresh all-time high last week, supported by strong cloud growth from Google, Amazon and Microsoft – seen as a clear sign of accelerating AI adoption.

This week, earnings will continue to flow, with AMD and Arm Holdings in focus for the semiconductor space. The sector has had a stellar month, with VanEck’s semiconductor ETF gaining nearly 40%. Results are expected to be strong, but whether they beat expectations will be key for the continuation of the rally.

On the economic calendar, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates tomorrow to rein in rising inflationary pressures – a hawkish divergence that helps justify the bullish trend in AUDUSD above the 0.72 level. The US dollar, on the other hand, is flat this morning. US jobs data will be the key macro event this week, with forecasts diverging. Bloomberg consensus suggests around 73K new nonfarm jobs last month, though estimates vary widely.

The path of US monetary policy – and elsewhere – will depend on incoming data. European central banks remain focused on inflation, given their single mandate, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) operates under a dual mandate. This means that despite rising inflation risks, weak jobs data could revive dovish Fed expectations. If that happens, the tech sector could attract further inflows – not only because of cost efficiencies partly due to job cuts, but also because softer labour data could lead to lower rates. In that environment, bad news may once again be interpreted as good news, and swimming against this tide – betting on a correction right now – looks like a losing bet, even as we move through May.