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At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent.

While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation. Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen. As a result, the Board judged that there is a material risk that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated.

Higher capacity pressures reflect, in part, the greater momentum in demand in the latter part of 2025. Growth in private demand strengthened substantially more than was expected in mid-2025, although the composition of that growth surprised in the December quarter. Business investment was above expectations and consumption was below expectations. Meanwhile, growth in unit labour costs declined. More recently, the unemployment rate has been a little lower than expected and measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates. Activity and prices in the housing market grew strongly over the past year, although housing price growth moderated somewhat at the start of 2026.

Financial conditions have tightened a little this year, but the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive is uncertain. Credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of interest rate reductions in 2025 are yet to flow through fully to aggregate demand, prices and wages. The exchange rate, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen over the past month. In large part, higher interest rates reflect expectations for the path of monetary policy, which have risen in Australia and most other advanced economies in response to the expected inflationary implications of the conflict in the Middle East.

There are material uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. Globally, the conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks in both directions. A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices; this will push up near-term inflation and could also increase inflation further out if it impairs supply capacity or price rises get built into longer term inflation expectations. Higher prices and prolonged uncertainty may cause growth to be lower in Australia’s major trading partners and also in Australia.

Decision

A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025. While part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors, the Board judged that the labour market has tightened a little recently and capacity pressures are slightly greater than previously assessed. Developments in the Middle East remain highly uncertain, but under a wide range of possible scenarios could add to global and domestic inflation.

In light of these considerations, the Board judged that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and that the risks have tilted further to the upside, including to inflation expectations. It was therefore appropriate to increase the cash rate target.

The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment. It will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

Today’s policy decision was made by majority: five members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent; four members voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85 per cent.

Bitcoin is staging a notable recovery this week, climbing back above the 75,000 handle even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. The move challenges the typical risk-off playbook, where escalating conflict would normally pressure crypto assets. Instead, improving sentiment as oil stabilizes has helped, but the rebound appears to be driven more by positioning than a fundamental shift in macro conditions.

The key driver is a short squeeze. Earlier this month, sentiment had turned decisively bearish amid the Iran conflict, with expectations that Bitcoin would revisit the 60,000 level. However, sellers failed to push prices lower, and that failure forced traders to unwind short positions built up since late 2025. The resulting squeeze has extended the upside move, lifting Bitcoin back above key technical levels.

Technically, a solid base appears to have formed at 59,866 in February, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 15,452 (2022 low) to 126,289 (2025 high) at 57,791. The break above the 55 D EMA (now at 73,584), marks an important shift in near-term momentum and opens the path for further recovery. The next key level to watch is 80,492, a former support that has turned into resistance.

However, the upside may remain capped in the near term. Strong resistance is expected in the 80,000–85,000 zone, where the psychological barrier aligns with the 38.2% retracement of 126,289 to 59,866 at 85,239. Failure to sustain gains above current levels, particularly a break below 70,000, would signal that the rebound has run its course and shift focus back toward the 59,866 low.

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin started a steady increase above $72,000 and $75,000.
• A bullish trend line is forming with support at $71,500 on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD.
• Ethereum also climbed over 10% and surpassed $2,350.
• Gold failed to settle above the $5,200 resistance and trimmed gains.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price remained supported above $68,500 against the US Dollar. BTC climbed above $72,000 and $73,200 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price settled above the $72,000 pivot level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The upward move was such that the price cleared the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downside correction from the $73,926 swing high to the $70,279 low.

It opened the doors for a move above $75,000. On the upside, the price now faces resistance near $76,000 and the 1.618 Fib extension level of the downside correction from the $73,926 swing high to the $70,279 low.

The first key hurdle is $77,000. A close above $77,000 could send the price toward $78,800. Any more gains might call for a test of $80,000.

Immediate support sits at $74,000. The first key support could be $72,500. The main breakdown support could be near a bullish trend line at $71,500. A downside break below the trend line might start another decline. The next major support is $70,000, below which BTC could decline toward $68,500.

Looking at Ethereum, the price also gained bullish momentum above $2,250, and the bulls could now aim for a move toward $2,500.

Today’s Key Economic Releases

• US Pending Home Sales for Feb 2026 (YoY) - Forecast -0.5%, versus -0.8% previous.

Metals have been responding very unusually to the latest and ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict, initially spiking higher but failing to withstand the pressure that followed.

What is bothering Metals, as with virtually all other assets on the Market except for Crude and its beloved Petrodollar, is that supply tensions in Energy are known for their long-lasting effects on inflation.

And while inflation helps metals shine bright over the long run, when rate expectations are repriced higher, non-yielding assets face trouble.

This morning was yet another example of this, with Oil gapping higher at the Globex open and Gold, Silver, and other precious metals turning lower.

Current Session in Metals (15:05 ET) – Courtesy of Finviz. March 16, 2026

The weird price action now gets even weirder when you see that a progressive easing in Oil and the US Dollar only briefly helped metals rebound.

Gold now fragilely holds around $5,000 (after briefly crossing below the key level), and Silver is doing the same, this time around $80.

A few alternatives that have held well are Copper and Platinum, both of which remain strong despite the broader context in the Commodity Market.

We will explore their technical levels during tomorrow's Metals update.

The million-dollar question remains the same:

Are such corrections in the midst of a rough conflict opportunities to buy-dips or not?

One risk of being long metals is that if the "fact" of war brings in some profit-taking, players who bought them as Safe-Havens won't have many reasons to hold such positions; that is, as long as the conflict doesn't escalate to something much worse.

The broader de-dollarization context remains, but this could already be a trend of the past, given recent reactions to the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh (who has yet to be officially nominated) in end-January.

Let's tackle the intraday charts and levels for both Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) to see if today's downside fakeout could help the case for some dip-buying or if technical red flags have emerged.

Gold 4H Chart and Intraday Levels

Gold 4H Chart. March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView

Pre-FOMC flows can be tricky and this is exactly what is arising from this price action.

Having broken the key $5,100 Pivot, technicals for the metal are now increasingly more mixed, but are still further from bearish territory.

This provides decent scenarios for breakout plays:

• Rebounding from here would maintain the $5,000 to $5,200 range
  • Some bullish plays above the 200-period MA ($5,080) would be sensical
• Any break below $5,000 however could quickly open the door towards the Mid-Feb lows around $4,850

Levels of interest for Gold trading:

Support Levels:

• $5,000 Mini-Support
• $4,850 to $4,900 Support (Mid-Feb Lows)
• Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)
• Channel lows $4,200

Resistance Levels:

• $5,100 Major Pivot (broken, Bullish above)
• $5,250 March Resistance Zone (+/- $25)
• $5,400 Wartime Resistance
• Current All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and Intraday Levels

Silver 4H Chart. March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView

Silver is now looking more grim than its Yellow-counterpart.

Having failed to hold the upper bound of its 2025 bull channel, the precious metal is now well into a mid-term bearish momentum – It's lower bound is at $66 for now, close to the February lows.

For short-term traders, keep a close eye on the intraday bear channel that has recently arisen.

• Breaking $80 on the session could bring more downside ahead.

Levels of interest for Silver trading:

Support Levels:

• Pivotal Support $80 to $82 (testing)
• February Momentum Support $76 to $77.50
• Major 2026 Support $70 to $72
• 2025 Channel lows $66

Resistance Levels:

• Intraday Channel highs $81.50
• Main Pivot $84.50
• Mini Resistance $87.50
• $96.47 March highs
• Key psychological resistance $100 to $104

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

AUDUSD: ⬆️ Buy

• AUDUSD reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.7160

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed from the support area between the key support level 0.6965 (low of the eagerly wave 2), support trendline from November, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.

The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (C) from November.

Given the overriding daily uptrend, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.7160 (which stopped previous wave 1).

USDCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• USDCAD reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.3625

USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 1.3725 (which stopped wave A), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave C – which belongs to the ABC correction (2) from January.

Given the clear downtrend on the daily and weekly charts, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3625.

S&P 500: ⬆️ Buy

• S&P 500 reversed from strong support level 6600.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 6800.00

S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area between the multi-month support level 6600.00 (which has been reversing the index from September), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.

The upward reversal from this support zone is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

Given the strong daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6800.00 (former strong support from January and February).

The Euro bounced from new multi-month low (1.1410) on Monday as traders collect profits from strong fall in past two weeks (the pair was down 3%).

Slight optimism over the Middle East crisis contributed to technical signals on oversold daily studies, which paused broader downtrend.

Violation of significant supports at 1.1500 zone (former base / psychological / top of ascending weekly Ichimoku cloud) generated negative signal (Friday’s close well below 1.1500 zone).

This warns of continuation of downtrend from 1.2082 (2026 high) after consolidation / limited correction.

Markets await policy decisions of many major central banks this week, with the ECB and Fed being on the list and both expected to keep rates unchanged this time.

The dollar is likely to benefit from Fed/ ECB rate divergence, as well as being top safe-haven demand lately that supports scenario of EURUSD bearish continuation after a pause.

Broken 1.1500 barrier so far limits bounce with stronger upticks to face barriers at 1.1575 (former low of Jan 19 / falling 10DMA) which should ideally cap and offer better opportunities to re-enter bearish market for acceleration towards 1.1354 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0177/1.2082.

Only break above 1.1670 (200DMA / upper boundary of larger bear channel) would sideline bears.

Res: 1.1500; 1.1575; 1.1633; 1.1670
Sup: 1.1410; 1.1391; 1.1354; 1.1300

Markets

Markets are in some kind of wait-and-see stance today after the energy-repositioning of the previous two weeks. Bond yields drop a few bps. The dollar eases off recent top levels and equities avoid a further decline. It is unclear what label/explanation is appropriate. Is it markets hoping that a solution on the passage of energy through the Strait of Hormuz might be possible in a not that distant future? It doesn’t seem that evident. The call of US president Trump to countries including China and Nato allies to join US action to keep the Strait open, if any, only received lukewarm response. Other political comments this weekend neither suggest a profound de-escalation. Probably, today’s price action is only a reflection point with investors pondering what might already be priced in, moving to a more agnostic approach. This reasoning especially might apply to interest rate markets with the likes of the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and several other central banks deciding on policy later this week. For those still in the process of normalizing policy toward a more neutral level (Fed, BoE), easing expectations have been reduced sharply. For the Fed only one 25 bps step is still discounted by eoy (to be compared to 2+ steps before the start of the war). For the Bank of England two 25 bps cuts priced in end-February now even have turned into tentative speculation that Bailey and the MPC might be forced to hike late this year. Similar narrative for the ECB (from 50% anticipation of a rate cut in H2 before to war to 1+ hike priced in H2 2026). Long term yields in the US and Europe on Friday tested key levels last Friday (US 10-y nearing YTD top at 4.30%; EMU 10-y swap at 3% testing the highest levels since Nov 2023, German 10 & 30-y testing/only a whisker away from the highest levels since 2011 !!). That battle might continue in case of more signs that the conflict lasts longer and with risks of second round inflation impact. US yields today are easing by 3 bps (2-y) to 5 bps (10-y). German yields are correcting between 5 bps (2-y) and 3 bps (30-y). UK yields eases 6-7 bps across the curve. Despite today’s move, markets will scrutinize central bank’s decisiveness and commitments to avoid a 2022 scenario. On other markets, oil eases off the intraday peak levels, but Brent still holds near $100/b. Equities in the US and Europe try to beak last week’s downward spiral (Eurostoxx 50 + 0.85%, S&P 500 + 1.25%). However its too early to draw any conclusions, even from a technical point of view. The dollar rally takes a breather, with important resistance levels nearby. DXY (99.85) this morning tested the 100.5 area (top end May last year and top of MT sideways consolidation range). USD/JPY holds near 159 after setting a new YTD top on Friday and with the key 160 reference still within reach. EUR/USD (1.149) rebounds off the 1.1411 area with the August low at 1.1392 still the main technical reference.

News & Views

Canadian inflation rose by 0.5% M/M in February, a slower pace than consensus expected (+0.7%). Annual inflation fell from 2.3% to 1.8% (vs 1.9% consensus), back below the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target for the first time since August of last year. Base effects were in play because of the end to the goods services and harmonized sales tax break halfway into February of last year. Gasoline prices moderated the slowdown in CPI (-14.2% Y/Y vs -16.7% Y/Y in January-. A 3.6% M/M increase in gasoline prices was already the result from higher crude oil prices in the lead-up to the conflict in the Middle East, as well as oil supply disruptions in some producer countries. Measures of core inflation, including the central bank’s preferred trimmed mean remain sticky above 2% (2.3% Y/Y from 2.4%). Goods prices increased 0.5% M/M to be up 0.5% Y/Y while services prices rose by 0.6% M/M and 2.7% Y/Y. Canadian markets are unnerved by the outdate numbers and follow today’s global market moves.

The Bank of International Settlements released its quarterly review. It focuses on market recalibration amid shifting currents. Inflation expectations edged up, leading investors to revise expectations of policy rates upwards and push back the expected timing of US rate cuts. Hyun Song Shin, head of the Monetary and Economic Department warned that “if the conflict persists or widens beyond current expectations, that could trigger sharper adjustments in inflation expectations and financial conditions. A spike in interest rates could put pressure on rich asset price valuations and rising financial costs for governments and the need to issue more debt could undermine fiscal sustainability.”