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US consumer sentiment softened slightly in October, with the University of Michigan index slipping marginally from 55.1 to 55.0, in line with expectations. The details painted a mixed picture—Current Economic Conditions improved to 61.0 from 60.4, while the Expectations Index edged lower to 51.2 from 51.7.

The survey showed that improvements in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by a deterioration in future personal finance expectations and current buying conditions for durable goods. That combination points to a fragile confidence backdrop, as households continue to wrestle with elevated prices and high borrowing costs, even amid a resilient job market.

On inflation, expectations remain uncomfortably high. Year-ahead inflation eased slightly from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-run expectations were unchanged at 3.7%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Full US UoM consumer sentiment release here.

Canada's economy added a staggering 60k jobs in September (+0.3% month/month), 55k more than consensus expectations for a 5k gain. The details were similarly strong with full-time positions jumping 106k, and the private sector rising 22K.

The unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September, as the labour force more than made up for the past two months of losses, adding 72k workers.

Job gains were concentrated in manufacturing (+28k), health care and social assistance (+14k), and agriculture (+13k). The biggest losses were seen in wholesale and retail trade (-21k), construction (-8.2k), and transportation and warehousing (-7.4k).

Wage growth was steady in September with average hourly wages up 3.6% versus a year ago.

Key Implications

Well, that's quite the surprise. Canada's job market looks like it recovered all of August's losses in September. Importantly, even for a noisy data series, this is a strong result. That said, it's important to note that the unemployment rate remained unchanged as the labour force jumped by an even greater amount. Considering population growth slowed to 28k people, the biggest surprise was a large influx of new workers despite a weak job market.

The Bank of Canada's next decision is due at the end of the month and this surprise from the labour market could change the calculus on the decision. However, underlying inflation continues to hover within the target range and the unemployment rate suggest that the labour market still has excess slack. The next inflation report is due on the 21st and the bar will be even higher for inflation to underperform and bring the BoC onside for another rate cut. Markets seems to agree as the pricing for a rate cut materially deteriorated this morning.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1521; (P) 1.1585; (R1) 1.1627; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral. Fall from 1.1917 is in progress for 1.1390 support. Break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1647 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1778 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1265) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3250; (P) 1.3334; (R1) 1.3389; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside, as fall from 1.3725 is in progress for 1.3140. Strong support is expected from there to bring rebound to complete the corrective pattern from 1.3787 high. On the upside, above 1.3341 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could be seen from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3176) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8019; (P) 0.8047; (R1) 0.8092; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.7828 is seen as correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Further rise should be seen to 0.8170 resistance. Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7828 at 0.8352. On the downside, below 0.8001 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.40; (P) 152.81; (R1) 153.51; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 153.26 temporary top. Downside should be contained above 149.95 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 153.26 will resume larger rise to 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 158.80.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3959; (P) 1.3996; (R1) 1.4059; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current retreat. On the downside, firm break of 1.3930 support will indicate rejection by 1.4014/7 cluster resistance. That would keep the rebound from 1.3538 corrective, and turn bias to the downside for 1.3725 support. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.4014/7 cluster resistance will suggest that USD/CAD Is already reversing the whole fall from 1.4719, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4312.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. However sustained trading above 1.4014 will suggest that it's more likely just a correction, and the larger up trend would be in favor to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage.

Canadian Dollar strengthened notably in the early U.S. session after robust September employment data signaled that Canada’s economy was more resilient than anticipated in face of U.S. tariffs.. The upbeat data provided a welcome boost to the Loonie, which had already been one of the week’s top performers, and may prompt markets to reassess expectations for further rate cuts from the BoC later this month.

The strength of the report should ease pressure on the BoC ahead of its October 29 policy meeting. The central bank resumed rate cuts in September amid a softening labor market and persistent trade uncertainty, but the latest data point to renewed momentum, particularly in full-time employment and manufacturing. That may give policymakers room to pause and evaluate whether recent easing has already stabilized conditions.

The next major test will come from September CPI on October 21, which will help determine whether the recent easing has struck the right balance between supporting growth and containing inflation.

Meanwhile in Japan, political uncertainty returned to the spotlight as Sanae Takaichi’s premiership bid was thrown into doubt. The ruling LDP’s coalition partner Komeito announced its withdrawal from the alliance after disputes over the handling of a political funding scandal, ending a 26-year relationship. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito said the party would not support Takaichi in the parliamentary vote expected later this month, leaving her leadership uncertain.

Takaichi called the decision “extremely regrettable,” vowing to continue efforts to form a government. The political split adds to the uncertainty surrounding Japan’s policy direction, particularly with Takaichi’s fiscally expansionary and dovish leanings toward monetary policy. Nonetheless, the Yen managed to stabilize, aided by verbal intervention from Japanese officials stressing that FX moves must reflect fundamentals.

Overall, Dollar remains the week’s strongest performer, followed by Loonie, which now has a chance to overtake if post-jobs momentum continues. Aussie remains third strongest. At the other end, Yen remains the weakest, with Euro and Sterling trailing just ahead. Swiss Franc and Kiwi are holding in the middle.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.03%. DAX is up 0.04%. CAC is up 0.01%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.062 at 4.687. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.031 at 2.671. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.01%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.73%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.94%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.30%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.001 to 1.696.

Canada jobs surge 60.4k in September, unemployment steady at 7.1%

Canada’s labor market delivered a strong upside surprise in September, with employment rising by 60.4k, well above expectations of just 2.8k. The gains were concentrated in manufacturing (+28k), health care and social assistance (+14k), and agriculture (+13k), while wholesale and retail trade saw a notable decline of -21k.

The report reinforces signs of resilience across key sectors even amid broader uncertainty over the impact of U.S. trade and tariff policies.

The data also showed a healthy quality of job growth, with full-time employment surging 106k while part-time positions dropped -46k, suggesting improved job stability.

Unemployment rate held steady at 7.1%, defying expectations for a modest uptick to 7.2%. Wage growth also firmed slightly, with average hourly earnings up 3.3% yoy, from 3.2% yoy in August.

Japan producer prices hold at 2.7% as import declines ease in September

Japan’s corporate goods price index rose 2.7% yoy in September, unchanged from August and slightly above expectations of 2.5%. The data suggest that while upstream cost pressures remain contained, they have yet to fade meaningfully.

Yen-based import price index declined -0.8% yoy, a much smaller drop than August’s -3.9%, pointing to easing import deflation as Yen’s weakness and rising global input costs filter through.

In terms of components, food and beverage prices climbed 4.7% yoy, following a 4.9% in August. Agricultural goods prices, including rice, jumped 30.5%, moderating from August’s 41% surge.

RBA’s Bullock: Inflation back in band but services still sticky, jobs market tight

RBA Governor Michele Bullock told lawmakers today that the economy is in a “pretty good spot,” with inflation back within the 2–3% target band and the labor market still tight. Speaking before a parliamentary committee in Canberra, she said, "the key now is to make sure it stays there sustainably.”

She said that services inflation remains the main concern, running “a little sticky” at around 3%, even as goods inflation continues to moderate. That offset has kept headline inflation contained for now.

On employment, Bullock said the labor market is in “a pretty good place”, though “possibly a little bit tight” in certain sectors. The RBA expects unemployment to edge higher over the coming months, a move consistent with a gradual rebalancing.

She also highlighted that household consumption is picking up, filling the gap left by weaker public demand—an important transition, she said, to keep growth on track.

NZ BNZ manufacturing flat at 49.9, firms cite soft demand and rising costs

New Zealand’s BNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index held steady at 49.9 in September, marking another month of contraction and remaining below its long-term average of 52.4.

The data highlighted a mixed picture across key components — production edged up from 47.8 to 50.1, barely returning to expansion, while employment dropped from 49.1 to 47.5, weighing on the overall index. New orders also slipped from 54.7 to 50.3, suggesting softening demand momentum.

BusinessNZ Director of Advocacy Catherine Beard said it was encouraging that the PMI did not show deeper contraction, but the sector remained “agonizingly close to returning to expansion mode.” She added weakness in employment prevented the headline figure from crossing the 50 threshold.

Survey respondents continued to highlight muted customer demand and rising cost pressures, with 60% of comments negative, up from August. Manufacturers reported lower order volumes, tight margins, and competitive pricing pressures, reflecting both domestic uncertainty and subdued export demand.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3959; (P) 1.3996; (R1) 1.4059; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current retreat. On the downside, firm break of 1.3930 support will indicate rejection by 1.4014/7 cluster resistance. That would keep the rebound from 1.3538 corrective, and turn bias to the downside for 1.3725 support. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.4014/7 cluster resistance will suggest that USD/CAD Is already reversing the whole fall from 1.4719, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4312.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. However sustained trading above 1.4014 will suggest that it's more likely just a correction, and the larger up trend would be in favor to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage.

Canada’s labor market delivered a strong upside surprise in September, with employment rising by 60.4k, well above expectations of just 2.8k. The gains were concentrated in manufacturing (+28k), health care and social assistance (+14k), and agriculture (+13k), while wholesale and retail trade saw a notable decline of -21k.

The report reinforces signs of resilience across key sectors even amid broader uncertainty over the impact of U.S. trade and tariff policies.

The data also showed a healthy quality of job growth, with full-time employment surging 106k while part-time positions dropped -46k, suggesting improved job stability.

Unemployment rate held steady at 7.1%, defying expectations for a modest uptick to 7.2%. Wage growth also firmed slightly, with average hourly earnings up 3.3% yoy, from 3.2% yoy in August.

Full Canada employment release here.

As our members know, we’ve been long in ETHUSD . The crypto has made a nice reaction from our buying zone. In this technical article, we are going to present Elliott Wave trading setup of ETHUSD. The crypto completed its corrective decline precisely at the Equal Legs area, also known as the Blue Box.

In the following sections, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave structure, explain the trading setup, and present target levels.

ETHUSD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 09.23.2025

Pullback is unfolding as a Double Three correction. Price is reaching our buying zone at 4,035–3,582 (Blue Box). Since the main trend is still bullish, we expect at least a 3-wave bounce from this area — and ideally, a move toward new highs. We don’t recommend shorting here and prefer the long side from the marked Blue Box. Once price hits the 50% Fibonacci retracement against the X red connector, we’ll move the stop to breakeven and secure some partial profits. A break below the 1.618 extension at 3,582 would invalidate the setup.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable. 🚫

ETHUSD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 10.06.2025

The crypto extended lower into the Blue Box area and found buyers, as expected. The correction ended at the 3,839.35 low, and since then, Ethereum has made a decent rally. As a result, all long positions entered at the Blue Box are now risk-free — we’ve moved our stop loss to breakeven and already secured partial profits. We expect to complete 5 waves from the 3,839.35 low soon and to see a 3-wave pullback before a further rally resumes. As long as the pivot at the mentioned low holds, the crypto is targeting the 5,225.56+ area.