Sample Category Title

USD/CHF dipped to 0.8020 last week but quickly recovered and turned sideway. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.8020 will solidify the case that corrective pattern from 0.7871 has completed at 0.8170. Further fall should be seen back to retest 0.7871 low. However, break of 0.8710 will resume the corrective rise towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7871 at 0.8379.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9200 resistance holds. Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's extended rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 0.6624 has completed at 0.6418 already. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for retesting 0.6624 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6449 will argue that the pattern from 0.6624 is extending with another falling leg, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD gyrated lower to 1.3720 last week and then turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.3720 will reaffirm the case that corrective pattern from 1.3538 has completed at 1.3878. Further decline should then be seen back to retest 1.3538 low. However, break of 1.3809 will bring retest of 1.3878. Further break there will extend the corrective rebound from 1.3538 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3511) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.

The strong rebound in GBP/JPY last week suggests that correction from 199.96 has completed at 195.01 already. Initial bias stays on the upside for retesting 199.96 first. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 184.35. Next target is 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. On the downside, below 197.35 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

EUR/JPY stayed in range of 169.69/172.36 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective pattern from 173.87 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 172.36 will bring retest of 173.87 first. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 154.77 to retest 175.41 high.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 169.27) will delay this bullish case.

In the long term picture, up trend fro 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.

EUR/GBP jumped to 0.8742 last week but reversed ahead of 0.8752 resistance. Consolidations pattern from 0.8752 is still extending and initial bias stays neutral this week first. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600. On the upside, firm break of 0.8752 will resume the rise from 0.8354 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8491) holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD was bounded in tight range below 1.7972 resistance last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. ON the upside, firm break of 1.7972 should confirm that corrective pattern from 1.8094 has completed. Further rise should then be seen through 1.8094, to resume the rebound from 1.7245. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. On the downside, below 1.7671 will bring deeper fall back to 1.7459 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6414) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.

EUR/CHF surged to as high as 0.9426 last week but turned sideway just ahead of 0.9428 resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Current development argues that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has completed with three waves down to 0.9265. Firm break of 0.9428 should confirm this bullish case, and target 0.9445 and then 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9357) with extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9855) holds.

Monday, Aug 11, 2025

Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025

Wednesday, Aug 13, 2025

Thursday, Aug 14, 2025

Friday, Aug 15, 2025

Week in review - Solid Week for Global Equities

It was a quiet week for economic updates, giving analysts time to review last week's data, which clearly showed demand slowing down. While labor productivity remains strong, slower activity and rising service sector prices suggest mild stagflation.

We had a host of Central Bank meetings this week where the U.K., India, and Mexico took cautious actions. The Bank of England and Mexico's Banxico cut rates, while India’s central bank kept rates steady due to currency concerns. Switzerland had an unexpected rise in inflation, and Mexico’s core inflation stayed high despite overall easing. In New Zealand, weak job data points to a likely rate cut.

The Bank of England (BoE) meeting was the one that caught the attention of market participants. The BoE cut rates by 25 basis points to 4%, but their statement suggests the rate cuts may soon stop. Policymakers are concerned about stubbornly high inflation, which remains well above their target.

The Bank's statement noted that monetary policy is less restrictive as rates are cut. Markets see this as a signal, now expecting fewer cuts with just two by next summer and none this year.

Source: LSEG

Despite these developments global equity markets continued their impressive run. In the US dip buyers returned Monday, boosted by hopes of Fed action in September and a Trump ally joining the board, signaling a dovish shift. Despite inflation concerns, strong earnings kept investors confident in Wall Street.

In Europe, shares had their best week in 12 weeks, driven by banking stocks and hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. The STOXX 600 rose 0.2% Friday, up 2.2% for the week. Eurozone banks gained 1.9% Friday, leading year-to-date with a 56.8% rise.

Of the 198 companies in the STOXX 600 that reported earnings through Tuesday, 53% exceeded analysts' estimates, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The dollar strengthened on Friday but is set for a weekly drop after July's jobs report showed weaker-than-expected hiring and sharp downward revisions to previous months' gains.

Oil prices dipped Friday, heading for their biggest weekly drop since June due to US-Russia deal reports and a weaker economic outlook. Brent crude fell to $66.36, and WTI dropped to $63.67.

US gold futures hit a record high Friday amid uncertainty over U.S. tariffs on common gold bar sizes. Spot gold stayed steady at $3,399.91 per ounce, up 1% for the week. Analysts await clarity, noting tariffs could heavily impact Switzerland, a key gold refining hub.

The Week Ahead

The week ahead has several important data releases lined up. The US and UK will release inflation data and GDP data and from Asia we have a few high impact data releases

Asia Pacific Markets - RBA Meeting, Japan GDP and Chinese Inflation

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% at Tuesday's meeting, following weaker-than-expected growth and inflation data.

Last month, the RBA surprised markets by keeping the rate at 3.85%, seeking more proof that inflation was easing toward its 2.5% target. Since then, softer Q2 inflation and June jobs data suggest the RBA may now opt for a rate cut.

China will release its July inflation data on Saturday, with consumer prices expected to dip into deflation at -0.1% year-on-year due to ongoing pressures. Efforts to curb price competition are unlikely to show immediate results.

Economic data for July, out Friday, may highlight slowing activity. Housing prices have fallen faster in recent months, and without new policies, this trend could continue. Industrial production, which beat expectations in June, is expected to slow to 6.2% YoY. Retail sales, boosted by trade-in policies, may ease to 4.6% YoY as policy effects fade. Fixed asset investment remains weak, with private investment held back by uncertainty, likely growing just 2.8% YoY.

Japan's second-quarter GDP, out Friday, is expected to show modest growth of 0.1% after a 0.04% contraction in Q1. Weak exports and inventory changes may weigh on growth, but a rebound in services and private consumption should support a slight recovery. The data could influence chances of an October rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Europe, UK and the US Focus on Inflation and GDP Data

From the US inflation data due on Tuesday will be the focus. In June, core goods prices (excluding autos) rose 0.6% MoM, the largest jump since February 2022. For July, we expect a similar increase, with autos also likely driving inflation higher. Vehicle prices, which surprisingly fell in June despite tariff pressures, and rising car auction prices add upside risk. We forecast a 0.4% MoM rise in core CPI, above the 0.3% consensus.

The Fed is unlikely to face a repeat of 2021/22's supply shock-driven 9% inflation. Key factors like oil prices, housing rents, and wage growth, which fueled inflation then, are now cooling and should help offset tariff effects in the coming months.

On Friday we will get retail sales and consumer confidence data. Strong auto sales may boost retail figures, but weak consumer confidence, driven by tariff concerns, job market worries, and household wealth volatility, suggests slower activity in the second half of the year.

In the UK we have jobs data due on Tuesday which will be key given the BoE decision this week as well as the upgraded forecasts.

The BoE remained calm about the job market in August, even as payrolls have steadily declined. Another sharp drop in hiring is possible, though these figures are often revised upward later. GDP data will follow on Thursday where Q1 saw a boost from export surges ahead of US tariffs, but Q2 has been weaker. Still, overall activity likely grew modestly in the spring.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY)

This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The DXY rally which faded last week Friday, rejected the long-term descending trendline which has been in play since the start of 2025.

There appears to be significant concerns around the US Dollar for now and the fact that the DXY rejection occurred at the 100.00 confluence level is a big deal in my opinion.

The big cuts to U.S. job numbers have definitely challenged the Fed's claim of a 'solid' labor market. This gives the Fed more confidence that the summer inflation rise will be temporary, likely leading to rate cuts in September.

This leaves the US Dollar vulnerable to further downside moving forward with sellers likely to flood in on any short-term rallies higher. We saw a bit of that this week already with Monday and Tuesday seeing attempts at a rally being met by significant selling pressure.

On the RSI period-14 the DXY flirts with the neutral 50 level, with a move lower showing that momentum is indeed with the bears.

For now any rally higher will need to gain acceptance above the descending trendline and the 100.00 confluence level. If this happens and we see some change in the fundamentals around the US Dollar then perhaps i would change my stance. Right now, such a move seems unlikely.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - August 8, 2025

Source: TradingView.Com (click to enlarge)

Key Levels to Consider:

Support

• 97.70
• 96.90
• 96.37 (YTD Low)

Resistance

• 98.56
• 99.56
• 100.00 (confluence level)