Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9166; (P) 0.9179; (R1) 0.9198; More....

No change in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen below 0.9264. Further rise is in favor with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9280) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3652; (P) 1.3663; (R1) 1.3684; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current recovery. Further fall is in favor as long as 1.3787 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.3965 at 1.3665 will pave the way to retest 1.3480 low. However, firm break of 1.3787 will bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.3965 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7145; (P) 0.7161; (R1) 0.7175; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 0.7221 temporary top. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 0.7000 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.7221 will extend the larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. However, break of 0.7000 will bring deeper fall back to 0.6832 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.20; (P) 159.38; (R1) 159.66; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Further rise is expected with 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) intact. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 153.80) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7808; (P) 0.7830; (R1) 0.7867; More….

USD/CHF is staying inc consolidations above 0.7774 and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited below 0.7933 resistance to bring another fall. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8041 at 0.7770 will resume the decline from 0.8041 to retest 0.7603 low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8059) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3484; (P) 1.3511; (R1) 1.3529; More...

GBP/USD is still extending consolidations from 1.3598 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.3379 support intact, further rise is favor. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3867 to 1.3158 at 1.3596 will pave the way to retest 1.3867 high. However, firm break of 1.3379 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3158 low instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is back in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Key takeaways

• False alarm-driven spike fades quickly: WTI crude surged 5% on unverified reports of an attack in Tehran but retraced most gains after confirmation it was a drill, highlighting headline-driven volatility amid a fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
• Market signals point to limited upside: Declining implied volatility and reduced backwardation suggest easing supply stress and cap near-term bullish momentum, reinforcing the view that the recent spike is largely “noise.”
• Technicals favour mean reversion decline: Oil is testing range resistance near the 20-day MA, with bearish momentum signals (RSI divergence) indicating downside risk toward $90.50 and potentially $86–82 unless $102.25 is decisively broken.

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement extension by US President Trump to an indefinite period is in a “fragile state”, as the US waits for Iran’s new proposal to kickstart another round of peace talks.

The US and Iran have continued to be locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy flows, with both sides blocking the waterway in a “game of poker” to gain leverage during the extended ceasefire.

On Wednesday, 22 April 2026, Iranian navy forces fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz while the US intercepted two Iranian-registered oil tankers.

WTI crude oil futures rallied 5% on a false alarm attack in Tehran

Fig. 1: West Texas crude oil futures minor trend as of 23 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Fig. 2: Social media post on X that highlighted a false alarm attack in Tehran as of 23 Apr 2026 (Source: X).

In today's (Thursday, 23 April 2026) early Asian session at around 8.00 am Singapore time, there was an unconfirmed social media post on X that highlighted sounds of an explosion heard across Iran, leading to fears that the US-Iran extended ceasefire has ended (see Fig. 2).

West Texas crude oil futures traded on NYMEX spiked up almost 5% within 15 minutes to print an intraday high of $97.22/barrel (see Fig. 1), leading to minor risk-off activities in today’s Asian session; (S&P 500 E-mini futures -0.5%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index – 1.1%, AUD/USD -0.2%) at this time of writing.

Thereafter, a social post on X stated that the earlier explosions turned out to be a drill and a test on the Iranian air defence system, and there were no attacks in Tehran.

The price action of the West Texas crude oil futures has trimmed its intraday gains to 1.3% to trade at an intraday level of $94.27/barrel.

Technical analysis suggests that the current spike up in West Texas oil is more likely a “noise”, and the minor sideways range configuration since 14 April 2026 to 17 Apr 2026 remains intact.

Here are the key factors to support this narrative.

WTI crude implied volatility remains subdued, and backwardation has reduced

Fig. 3: WTI crude oil ETF volatility index & WTI calendar spread as of 22 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

The WTI crude oil ETF volatility index (OVX) measures the market’s expected 30-day implied volatility in crude oil prices, derived from near-term USO ETF options.

So far, it has started to print a series of “lower highs” since the 7 April 2026 level of 98.79, towards a value of 76.77 as of 22 April 2026, putting a near-term ceiling on higher oil prices (see Fig. 3).

The recent steep rallies in oil prices seen during the onset of the US-Iran war have been accompanied by a negative WTI crude oil calendar spread, where the 12-month futures price is less than the spot price.

A negative spread (backwardation) signals perceived near-term supply shortages, where immediate demand is pushing spot prices above futures.

The backwardation (WTI 12-month futures minus spot) is now at -19.90 as of 22 April 2026, less than its recent peak backwardation level of -41.57, printed earlier on 2 April 2026 (see Fig. 2).

Let’s now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil.

WTI Crude Oil – Retested 20-day moving average resistance, at risk of mean reversion decline

Fig. 4: West Texas oil CFD minor trend as of 23 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

The recent push-up seen on the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) from its range support zone of $86.50/81.94 has reached its range resistance zone of $96.44/98.35 (also the 20-day moving average).

At risk of a mean reversion decline back towards the range bottom, watch the $102.25 short-term pivotal resistance at $102.25, and a break below $90.50 reinforces the minor mean reversion decline scenario to retest the range support zone of $86.50/81.94 (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).

However, a clearance with an hourly close above $102.25 invalidates the bullish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at $107.12/110.87.

Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on WTI crude oil

• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought zone (above the 70 level) and staged an exit below it.
• The 22% rally from its 17 April 2026 low of $81.94 has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior down move from the 7 April 2026 high to 17 April 2026 low that confluences with the 20-day moving average resistance.

The US dollar is recovering after its previous decline, supported by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical backdrop. Conflicting signals regarding negotiations between the US and Iran — including reports of a possible ceasefire extension alongside preparations for increased military presence in the region — are creating mixed expectations among market participants and driving flows back into safe-haven assets. This environment is helping to restore demand for the dollar, despite the absence of a clear fundamental catalyst.

Additional support for the currency comes from expectations surrounding upcoming US macroeconomic data, which could influence the outlook for interest rates. However, the primary focus remains on geopolitical developments, while economic data is viewed more as a potential trigger for short-term moves. Markets are also factoring in commodity price dynamics and expectations for global economic activity, shaping the current balance of forces.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is moving higher, approaching key weekly resistance levels in the 159.70–160.00 range. The pair’s movement reflects a combination of dollar strength and reduced demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset. If current conditions persist, a further advance and a test of March highs cannot be ruled out. At the same time, rejection from this resistance zone may slow momentum and trigger a short-term pullback.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims
• today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US Services PMI
• today at 23:30 (GMT+3): Federal Reserve balance sheet

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is forming a potential reversal structure following its recent decline, signalling a possible shift in short-term momentum. Technical analysis suggests scope for a move higher towards 1.3700–1.3750, supported by a bullish “piercing pattern” on the daily chart. A sustained move below 1.3620, however, could revive downside pressure towards 1.3520–1.3560.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada RMPI
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada New Housing Price Index
• tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Core Retail Sales

The dollar’s current rebound is driven by geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals surrounding developments in Iran. USD/JPY approaching resistance and emerging reversal signals in USD/CAD highlight the importance of current levels. Further direction will depend on incoming news and macroeconomic data, with the dollar potentially extending gains or resuming its decline if geopolitical tensions ease.

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Markets

Oil prices grinded back above triple digit numbers yesterday with so far little progress seen in peace talks and traffic in the Hormuz Strait down to nearly zero as Iran is forcing its blockade through actual vessel seizures. Fox News contradicted the indefinite extension to the ceasefire, citing a White House official that it would only last for an additional three to five days. White House press secretary Leavitt later dismissed the Fox News report though. Meanwhile, Iran has shown little intention of taking part in negotiations short term as long as the US naval blockade and threats persist. The semi-official Tasnim news did cite the country’s envoy to the UN in saying Iran “received some sign” that the US is ready to break the blockade. Either way, markets remain on edge with oil prices this morning suddenly popping to $106 before easing back to $103 currently. European stock markets traded defensively but Wall Street shrugged at the renewed oil price rise with gains varying between 0.7-1.6%. Treasuries and Bunds lost some ground. US yields rose 0.4-2.2 bps. German rates added 3.5 bps at the front. Core bonds by now have mostly undone Friday’s gains. The dollar held the upper hand against most major peers. EUR/USD retreated towards 1.17. DXY has bottomed out around 98 and is now closing in on 99. USD/JPY marches higher for a fourth day straight with the 160 barrier just inches away.

April PMIs today offer a distraction from the day-to-day geopolitical developments. Japan kicked off this morning with a softer and modest increase in private sector output in April. Services reported weaker growth (51.2 from 53.4) but manufacturing signalled the steepest rise in output for over 12 years amid a solid uptick in new work. There were reports of the industry sector ramping up production over fears for further supply chain disruptions (inventory building) linked to the Middle East conflict. The latter also drove input prices rising at the quickest since January 2023, in turn boosting output inflation to its fastest pace since data were first available in 2007. We’ll be looking for similar signals in the UK and European edition later today. The bar for the European manufacturing gauge is at 50.9, easing from April’s 51.6. Services is expected at 49.8 from 50.2. Combined private sector activity would stagnate around 50.1. The key message will come from the price series. The likes of the ECB will monitor the impact of higher oil prices filtering through to the rest of the economy and pushing up general inflation. These subseries could prove more important in determining the market reaction, particularly for bonds. The recent string of ECB speeches (most notably from president Lagarde herself) took April off the table for a first hike, putting the spotlights on June. Overall sentiment obviously remains at the whim of the Iran-headline roulette.

News & Views

New EU car registrations increased by 4% in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 thanks to strong performance in the month of March (+12.5% Y/Y). Consumer activity was bolstered by new and revised tax benefits and incentive scheme across major European countries. Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEV) lead as the most popular power type choice among buyers (38.6% in Q1 from 35.6% in Q1 2025), while the battery-electric (BEV) car market share reached 19.4% up from 15.2%. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids continued to strengthen their position (9.5% from 7.6%), underlining the importance of a technology-neutral pathway to decarbonisation. The combined market share of new registrations for petrol and diesel cars fell from 38.2% to 30.3%. In Belgium, new registrations declined by 5.9% to 113 805 compared with Q1 2025. Especially sales of plug-in hybrids and diesel cars took a hit. Petrol cars (44.4% from 42.1%), BEV’s (34.7% from 33.4%) and HEV’s (12.2% from 12.3%) account for the lion share of new registrations.

South Korean GDP growth reached a consensus-smashing 1.7% Q/Q-pace in Q1 (vs 0.9% estimate). Apart from Q3 2020 (+2.2%), it was the fastest increase in economic activity since 2010. Compared with Q1 of last year, GDP rose by 3.6%. Details showed an AI-fueled export boom being the biggest growth driver. Exports rose by 5.1% Q/Q with net exports adding 1.1 ppt to growth (imports +3% Q/Q). Private consumption increased by 0.5% Q/Q with government spending rising by 0.1%. Investments picked up pace as well (+2.9% Q/Q) driven by funds into construction and facilities. Today’s strong GDP numbers might even underestimate growth momentum as gross domestic income surged by a whopping 7.5% Q/Q.

If you handed a market chart to an alien – any of the big ones, including US, European or tech-heavy Asian indices – they would barely guess that the world is being shaken by intense geopolitical tensions that brought transit at one of the planet’s most critical chokepoints to a near-halt, that the situation has been going on for nearly two months, threatening a man-made energy shortage across the planet, and that there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

They wouldn’t guess either that world leaders now prefer tweeting threats on social media as a new form of diplomacy.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted fresh new highs yesterday on news that the ceasefire would be extended without a deadline – although it is being extended because the US and Iran are failing to find common ground. And there is probably too much ego and reputational damage for either party to back down.

Alas, tech investors care increasingly less. VanEck’s semiconductor ETF rallied in 13 of the past 14 sessions on renewed AI optimism. Google gained more than 2% after revealing a new TPU chip designed to make AI computing faster and cheaper. Amazon also gained more than 2% after announcing a $5bn investment in AI’s rising star Anthropic, on top of the $8bn already committed, and said there could be $20bn more – a deal that includes Anthropic spending over $100bn on Amazon Web Services (AWS) over ~10 years. Circular, yes? But investors have now digested the circular nature of these deals, or they simply view them as preferable to war-exposed assets.

A shadow on optimism this morning, TSMC says that ASML’s new machines are too pricey. Alas, that’s the only one to produce these machines.

What is also interesting is that we are seeing pretty much the same sell-off-and-recovery pattern we saw last April – after the so-called Liberation Day. The choice of words still makes me smile a year or so later, especially given the US has just released a web platform to refund taxes that were allegedly collected over months. And while trade uncertainties persisted, major US – and other global – indices kept rallying.

This is what we see today: a dip on initial shock, followed by a rebound to all-time highs. It is almost safe to say that, no matter the news, markets rally. But of course, gains come with the risk of sharp reversals, as an energy crisis is still looming. But that’s just a blip.

Still, US crude was trading above the $100pb psychological mark this morning on extended uncertainties in the Middle East, while Brent crude traded past $106pb – the highest level in more than two weeks. The latter is weighing on appetite for equities as well. US and European futures point to a lower open, while the Japanese Nikkei and Kospi retreat from all-time highs.

One pattern is clear today: tech-heavy indices and energy are outperforming other sectors, as the global economic outlook deteriorates due to higher energy prices. Further upside is possible for crude oil, but gains will likely remain short-lived, as at these levels demand typically slows enough to cap further upside. So far, $120pb has acted as a strong resistance to bullish moves.

Speaking of underlying economies… PMI data today will give an idea of the impact of higher energy prices on global activity. While figures will likely point to slowing growth, rising price pressures will likely keep central bank doves constrained.

Yesterday, the UK announced its latest CPI figures, confirming rising price pressures driven by higher energy costs. Core CPI was slightly lower than expected, but this did not change expectations that inflation in the UK is turning higher again due to this shock, and will not only prevent the Bank of England (BoE) from cutting rates, but may also force it to tighten monetary policy. Alas, this did not help Cable gain ground yesterday, as higher rates into a slowing economic outlook are not necessarily attractive for FX traders.

Globally, the US dollar is gaining ground – but more slowly compared to the first days of the conflict – as some investors hedge higher energy risks via USD exposure. Another wave of upward pressure on oil prices could give the US dollar a short-term boost. But in the longer run, the US economic outlook is also weakening. Happily for investors, the tech story is masking deteriorating fundamentals.

Inside tech, Tesla announced its first-quarter earnings after the bell, and results came in line with expectations. Revenue grew 16% from a year earlier (helped by an easy comparison, as sales were tumbling this time last year), but operating expenses ballooned 37% to nearly $3.8bn. In addition, the company ramped up capex to $25bn this year – to keep up with the AI race – basically three years of combined spending.

The shares first popped in after-hours trading, but then reversed gains. Elon Musk has been incredibly successful in selling his tech dreams to the world, helped by a cash-generating machine that kept investors on board. Today, that cash machine is sputtering. Unless Elon Musk’s new projects start generating meaningful cash flow, investors may start pulling back.

It is very difficult to put a price tag on Tesla. The company currently trades at a P/E ratio of nearly 320. If it traded near a P/E ratio of 30, its share price would be around $36. Of course, this is a very linear calculation and does not take into account growth potential from new technologies.

But when you trade a company like Tesla, it’s critical to understand that one is funding the dream of Elon Musk – one that could change the world, but also carries significant risk.