Sample Category Title

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with break of 0.8150. Rise from 0.7603 is resuming and should target 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7600 at 0.8198 next. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8029 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it's still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 0.7277 to 0.6864 at 0.7022. Decisive break there will suggest that fall from 0.7277 has completed and 0.6864, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.7119 next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.7022 will maintain near term bearishness. Break of 0.6964 will bring retest of 0.6864 low.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206. Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 1.4115 will suggest that pullback from 1.4247 has completed, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3954. Retest of 1.4247 should be seen next. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3954 holds, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.4791 has completed as a three wave correction to 1.3480. It's still early to judge if rise from there a corrective bounce, or resumption of the larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). But in either case, retest of 1.4791 high should be seen next.

GBP/JPY is still bounded in consolidations below 219.56 and intraday bias stays neutral. Downside of pullback should be contained by 216.39 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 219.56 will extend larger up trend and target 220.90 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the long term up trend is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 208.64) holds, in case of pullback.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the upside with break of 186.30 resistance. Rebound from 182.10 is resuming and should target a retest on 187.93 high. Nevertheless, it's still viewed as a corrective move, upside should be limited by 187.93. On the downside, below 185.32 support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 180.15) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point. Further fall is expected with 0.8543 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8482 minor support will bring retest of 0.8453 first. Firm break there and sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8863 at 0.8466, will extend the decline from 0.8863 to retest 0.8221 low. However, decisive break of 0.8543 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8590).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8610 support turned resistance hold.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.6256 temporary low. Further fall is expected as long as 1.6419 resistance holds. Rebound from 1.6108 could have completed at 1.6617 already. Below 1.6256 will target a retest on 1.6108 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

Intraday bias is back on the upside with strong break of 0.9278 in EUR/CHF. Rise from 0.8979 is resuming, and should target 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. Near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.9226 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term falling trend line resistance indicates that 0.8979 is already a medium term bottom. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, rise from there should at least be reversing the fall from 0.9928, with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance will add more credence to this case. For now risk will remain on the upside as long as 0.9094 support holds, in case of retreat.

• EURUSD is rising on expectations of ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from the ECB.
• The rally in Brent crude and Treasury yields is not helping the US dollar.

The US dollar has retreated, despite rising oil prices and the resulting increase in US Treasury yields. Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have heightened geopolitical risks and catalysed the rally in Brent crude. The situation was further exacerbated by supply issues in Russia and Kazakhstan due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Black Sea infrastructure, as well as a reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to nine vessels and through the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb from 44 to 29, according to Kpler.

Rising oil prices are increasing the risk of accelerating inflation and prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy. The futures market puts the odds of the ECB and the Fed raising rates in September at 90% and 77%, while the probability of two hikes in 2026 stands at 60% and 56%, respectively. The European regulator is expected to make the first move. Investors do not expect a rise in the deposit rate at its July meeting but are counting on hawkish rhetoric from Christine Lagarde. This is providing a tailwind for EURUSD, helping the pair overcome obstacles such as the rally in Brent crude and Treasury yields.

The rise in consumer prices in the eurozone from 1.9% in February to 3.2% in May prompted the ECB to raise its deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.25% at its previous meeting. However, in June, the CPI slowed to 2.8%, providing a reason to pause the tightening cycle. Nevertheless, according to Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras, the resurgence of conflict in the Middle East has brought the European Central Bank back to the forefront in the fight against inflation.

Markets are buying EURUSD in the hope that Christine Lagarde will signal another hike in September. The major currency pair is rising on rumours, despite an unfavourable backdrop. Will the Frenchwoman’s rhetoric at the press conference provide grounds for selling the euro based on actual data?

Meanwhile, rumours that the Bank of Japan may resume tightening sooner than markets previously expected have pushed USDJPY lower. According to a Reuters poll, 53% of 51 experts forecast an increase in the overnight rate from 1% to 1.25% by December, with 35% expecting a rise in October. A Bloomberg insider claims there could be a move sooner than once every six months, which is what investors are currently anticipating.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has changed little over the past 24 hours, continuing to hover around $2.24T. The market remains near its recent high, consolidating despite a strengthening US dollar and cautious sentiment in equity markets. The sentiment index has fallen from 33, its highest level since May, to 31, remaining in ‘fear’ territory. Among the most popular coins, the top performers over the past day were Hedera (+6%), Uniswap (+4.4%) and Aptos (+3.6%). Filecoin (-4.9%), Stellar (-2.6%) and Bitcoin Cash (-2.4%) are falling more than the others.

Bitcoin retreated to $65.4K, losing ground for the second day in a row after touching the area of its local June highs. This pullback has reinforced the sense that bears remain in control of prices, preventing the technical rebound from developing into a broader recovery and establishing the 61.8% retracement level of the May–June decline as resistance.

Ethereum also lost momentum near $1,950, failing to break above the former support zone, which has now turned into resistance, on its first attempt. The second-largest cryptocurrency may find itself in a vacuum, down to the $1,750–1,800 range, with no significant barriers to further declines. A drop below $1,700 would be a worrying sign of a resumption of the downtrend.

News Background

Bitcoin has entered a zone of extreme undervaluation, according to the MVRV indicator, which currently stands below 5%, notes analyst Crypto Tice. Historically, whenever this indicator has reached such levels, it has coincided with the formation of a long-term bottom for BTC.

Bitcoin has every chance of rising to $116K by the end of the year, predicts analyst CryptoPatel. In his view, the bear market bottom has been reached, and a reversal is beginning, as it did at the end of 2022.

Artemis has calculated that the assets of DAT companies have fallen by more than a third since October, from $120 billion to $75 billion. Crypto treasuries have lost tens of billions of dollars as Bitcoin’s price has fallen.

Satsuma Technology, the UK’s second-largest holder of Bitcoin, is set to sell all 668 BTC in its reserves. The company began building these reserves in August 2025, at an average price of $113.2K per coin. Satsuma’s shares have fallen by more than 99% from their peak and are set for delisting from the London Stock Exchange.

According to CryptoQuant, miners’ off-exchange Bitcoin reserves have fallen by 72% since the end of 2021, to 139,700 BTC. The figure has been steadily declining over the past four years.

Solana has begun preparing validators for the large-scale Alpenglow update, which is expected to result in an 80-fold increase in transaction speed. The roll-out is scheduled to take place in phases from August to October this year.

The FxPro Analyst Team