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Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. The ceasefire is holding, but remains fragile. The US Navy reportedly “boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean,” while Donald Trump ordered American forces to shoot boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, frustrated by Trump’s blockade and public bashing, appears unwilling to return to the negotiating table.

Oil prices are consolidating near the $100 per barrel level. Developed market yields are rising alongside oil prices, fueling inflation expectations, while equities remain hesitant near all-time highs.

PMI data released yesterday confirmed the negative impact of the energy shock on economic activity. European services were particularly affected. The EURUSD has fallen back below its 100-day moving average and is now testing the 200-day moving average to the downside.

A broadly stronger US dollar is also weighing on the global FX complex, with the dollar index testing its own 50-day moving average to the upside as geopolitical tensions persist into the weekend and rising oil prices increase demand for dollars.

As a result, the rally across global equity indices stalled yesterday. The Stoxx 600 closed flat, while the S&P 500 pulled back from all-time highs.

A sharp sell-off in software stocks added to concerns after results from IBM failed to reassure investors that the transition alongside AI would be smooth. The company highlighted slowing software growth and did not upgrade guidance, reinforcing doubts about the sector’s momentum. This revived fears that AI could disrupt traditional software models, prompting broad-based selling across the sector—not just IBM. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF fell more than 5%.

This also feeds into concerns around private credit exposure linked to these companies. In short, the software demons were back yesterday.

On the other side of the trade, AI enablers continue to extend gains. Chip stocks moved higher again, with VanEck’s Semiconductor ETF hitting a fresh all-time high as appetite for AI investment remains strong.

Intel earnings after the bell put a cherry on top. The company reported better-than-expected results and guidance, driven by demand for data center chips powering AI expansion, particularly its Xeon server processors.

While Intel has struggled to compete in GPUs against Nvidia and AMD, it remains strong in CPUs. As companies build AI infrastructure, demand for CPUs is also increasing, as they are needed to support systems surrounding GPUs. Nvidia itself launched its Grace CPU earlier this year to tap into that demand. Intel also benefits from its foundry ambitions and US government support to reshore semiconductor production. And if it makes any difference: Elon Musk said he would use Intel tech to build his in-house chip manufacturing plant. Shares rose around 20% in after-hours trading. Intel could benefit further from sustained CPU demand tied to AI expansion.

Across the Pacific, SK Hynix reported similarly strong results. Profit surged significantly, while revenue rose sharply on the back of memory chip demand.

Across the Pacific, the Korean SK Hynix echoed a similar story. Their profit jumped fivefold to over $25bn last quarter while revenue tripled past the $35bn mark. That’s more than half of what Nvidia announced the quarter before and triple the Intel revenue! It’s a big number. SK Hynix investors however were less impressed than Intel’s – as the surge in revenue has been priced. The stock is up by nearly 700% since last year. This surge is partly due to the fact that we’re in a memory chip boom cycle, that SK Hynix expects to last for another 3 years, but after that, if history is any guidance, there will be plenty of chips in the market and that the prices will tank and we will enter the bust cycle. There is a possibility that AI helps memory chip makers break that cycle. But what’s more realistic is that AI demand will make the boom cycle longer, but not keep the sector in the boom phase forever. So profit taking on blockbuster results were on the menu for SK Hynix following the earnings as a sign that it may be time for a certain downside correction and consolidation for memory chip makers

Elsewhere, TSMC reached a fresh all-time high in Taiwan after regulators lifted caps on single-stock holdings. Meanwhile, China’s DeepSeek launched a preview of its anticipated V4 model, lifting Chinese semiconductor stocks. Hua Hong Semiconductor rose sharply, Cambricon Technologies gained, and SMIC also advanced. Alibaba Group—which is reportedly considering an investment in DeepSeek—also saw increased demand.

As a result, the Hang Seng rebounded from early losses, while tech-heavy Nasdaq futures outperformed US and European peers this morning. Geopolitical uncertainty may continue to support demand for technology stocks, as investors remain cautious toward sectors more directly exposed to conflict and global growth risks.

In focus today

• Today is light on the data calendar, with no tier-1 releases scheduled.
• In Sweden, the Producer Price Index for March will be published, serving as a reliable leading indicator for goods prices over a 3-6-month horizon. We will closely monitor to what extent the high energy prices and the war have impacted other prices besides energy.
• Have a great weekend!

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the Middle East conflict, Trump announced a three-week extension to the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. However, this did little to calm oil prices, with Brent crude holding yesterday's levels, trading at the highest level since the ceasefire announcement slightly over two weeks ago. The market reacted to signs of renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict and reduced odds of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets signal less than 50% chance of traffic normalising before the end of May.

In Japan, the national March CPI confirmed consensus expectations of a modest increase in core inflation to 1.8% y/y, as government fuel subsidies and easing food inflation offset cost-push pressures from the energy shock. While inflation remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, renewed acceleration could come in the coming months as firms pass on higher input costs. These dynamics will likely be key factors at the Bank of Japan policy meeting next week.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, the composite PMI fell more than expected in April to 48.6 (prior: 50.7), driven by weaker services at 47.4 (cons: 49.8, prior: 50.2). The manufacturing index surprised on the upside at 52.2 (prior: 51.6), partly due to longer delivery times, but output and new orders was still above 50 indicating that the sector is not hit as hard as feared. As services is the largest sector, this decline is more important than the manufacturing rise, which is dovish for the ECB. However, price components rose sharply, partly countering the dovish take from the growth data. Overall, the diverging trends in growth and prices supports the view of ECB holding rates unchanged in April as they await more data. With the ECB being more focused on curbing upside inflationary pressures relative to downside growth pressures we still see two hikes this summer as the most likely scenario.

In the US, the Composite PMI recorded a solid uptick to 52.0 (prior: 50.3), driven by stronger manufacturing at 54.0 (prior: 52.3) and services at 51.3 (prior: 49.8). However, manufacturing indices appear to have been partly distorted by longer supply delivery times and potentially by front-loaded new orders ahead of expected cost increases and shortages. On the surface, this appears to support the notion that the euro area is relatively more vulnerable to the energy shock, but we caution against overinterpreting single data prints.

In the UK, April PMIs suggest the economy has remained afloat, with the service sector even accelerating, leaving the composite PMI at 52 - much stronger than expected. Price indices rose sharply, driven primarily by input prices, but also the output price index climbed above 62, its highest level since early 2023. On the other hand, consumer sentiment declined for a third consecutive month to the lowest level since late-2023. Overall, recent data probably strengthens the arguments for hiking rates and will likely serve to split the hawks and doves in the Bank of England already at the policy meeting next week.

In Sweden, Anna Seim delivered a speech, aligning closely with Governor Thedeen's stance on Wednesday, maintaining a relatively hawkish tone while emphasising the need for more evidence before adjusting policy. Her remarks suggest vigilance regarding inflation risks but acknowledge subdued inflationary pressures in Sweden.

In Norway, preliminary wage statistics showed that annual wage growth (3-month moving average) slowed from 3.8% to 3.3% in March. While this figure is significantly below Norges Bank's (NB) 2026 estimate of 4.5%, it is important to note that the NB estimate accounts for contributions from central negotiations and wage drift throughout the year. That said, the figures clearly point to a slowdown in overall wage growth, which could indicate a somewhat weaker labour market.

Equities: Global equities ended a touch lower at 0.4% in general sour risk sentiment. S&P500 declined 0.4%, Nasdaq -0.9%, Russell2000 -0.4%. Stoxx600 was flat. Value stocks largely reversed Wednesday's decline, amid an otherwise defensive outperformance to cyclicals. The tech sector was the clear underperformer, however this was entirely driven by the software companies that was 5.1% down yesterday. Futures are generally down, with the exception of Nasdaq as Intel gave strong AI driven outlook. Asian indices are mostly in red.

FI and FX: Trump's announcement of an extended ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon did little to calm oil prices, which continued rising yesterday with Brent crude rising to the highest level since the announcement of ceasefire a little over two weeks ago. By extension, EUR/USD also declined further below 1.17. Global yields held fairly steady with USD swap rates ending the day 1-3bp higher across the curve while EUR swap rates did a minor twist flattening of the curve. PMI releases failed to significantly move markets. The upwards pressure on EUR/DKK eased a bit yesterday. It might be that DKK has started to receive support from the recent bout of positive risk sentiment, which has also benefitted SEK and NOK.

UK retail sales rebounded strongly in March, with volumes rising 0.7% mom, well above expectations of 0.0% and reversing a revised -0.6% decline in February. The data points to a solid end to the first quarter, with overall retail volumes increasing 1.6% qoq.

However, the strength was driven largely by a surge in fuel sales, as households rushed to fill up amid rising prices. Excluding automotive fuel, retail sales rose a more modest 0.2% mom, suggesting that underlying consumer demand remains relatively subdued despite the headline beat.

On an annual basis, retail sales rose 1.7% yoy, also above expectations of 1.2%.

Full UK retail sales release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1663; (P) 1.1691; (R1) 1.1712; More….

EUR/USD edged lower today but stays above 1.1662 support. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise is still in favor. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound fro 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1507). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Dollar and oil are rising together today as ceasefires extend—but conflict persists. Despite a three-week extension of the Israel–Hezbollah truce and the ongoing “indefinite” pause in US–Iran conflicts, markets are increasingly focused on what is still happening rather than what has been paused. Maritime seizures, naval blockades, and localized escalations continue to define the situation, keeping risk elevated and supply disruption concerns firmly in place.

The US has maintained its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran’s IRGC continues to seize vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This evolving maritime standoff is reinforcing the idea that the ceasefire is a delay, not a resolution. As a result, oil prices are extending higher, reflecting expectations of prolonged disruption.

This backdrop is supporting Dollar strength. Rising oil prices are feeding into inflation expectations, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate outlook while also attracting safe-haven demand. The combination of yield support and geopolitical uncertainty is keeping the Dollar bid, even as broader market conviction remains limited.

Euro, by contrast, is emerging as the weakest link. This week's PMI data shows the Eurozone has already slipped into contraction, with services activity deteriorating sharply. Germany’s downgrade of its growth outlook, from 1.0% to just 0.5% in 2026, adds to the concern that the region is particularly exposed to the energy shock. If markets are moving toward a stagflation narrative, Europe appears to be leading the downturn.

Yen remains soft but is finding some support from intervention risks. Japan’s Finance Minister has reiterated warnings of “decisive action,” and traders remain cautious about pushing USD/JPY beyond the 160 level. This has limited downside momentum in Yen despite the broader Dollar strength.

Currency performance for the week reflects this fragmented environment. Dollar leads, followed by oil-supported Canadian Dollar. Euro is the weakest, with Yen and Swiss Franc also under pressure. Sterling, Aussie and Kiwi sit in the middle, lacking clear directional drivers.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.85%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.14%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.68%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.51%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.015 at 2.441. Overnight, DOW fell -0.36%. S&P 500 fell -0.41%. NASDAQ fell -0.89%. 10-year yield rose 0.029 to 4.323.

Silver Fails at $84—Will Oil and Dollar Strength Accelerate a Move to $60?

Silver has broken below $75 after failing at $84, as oil and Dollar strength take control. If both continue higher, a move toward $60 is coming into focus. Read More.

Japan's Core Inflation Rises to 1.8% in March, Core-Core Ticks Down

Japan CPI rises to 1.8% in March but remains below BoJ's target as core-core inflation slips to 2.4%. Rising oil prices and cost pressures pose risks ahead. Read More.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1663; (P) 1.1691; (R1) 1.1712; More….

EUR/USD edged lower today but stays above 1.1662 support. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise is still in favor. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will pave the way to retest 1.2081 high. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound fro 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1507). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Silver has come under notable pressure this week, slipping back below the $75 level as oil prices and the Dollar strengthen. The metal is now at risk of a deeper decline toward the March low near $60, especially if the rallies in oil and the Dollar continue to gather momentum.

The backdrop remains the evolving US–Iran situation. With talks cancelled and the ceasefire extended indefinitely, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Ongoing supply disruptions are keeping oil prices firm, with Brent holding above $106 and pushing toward $110. This sustained strength in energy markets is feeding directly into inflation expectations.

For Silver, the implication is clear. Higher oil prices are lifting inflation expectations, which in turn are pushing global interest rate expectations higher. Rather than benefiting from geopolitical risk, Silver is being weighed down by the “higher-for-longer” rate outlook, as rising yields and a stronger Dollar reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Technically, the near term outlook for Silver has deteriorated. The rejection ahead of the 38.2% retracement of 121.83 to 60.97 at 84.21 suggests that the rebound from 60.97 has likely completed at 83.04. The break below the near-term rising channel support adds further confirmation that downside momentum is building. This development signals that the corrective bounce from 60.97 low has ended and that a new leg lower may be underway.

Attention now turns to the 72.55 support level. Decisive break here would solidify the bearish case and open the path for a deeper decline. The next targets lie at the prior low of 60.97, with the psychological 60 level likely to come into focus.

Japan’s inflation firmed slightly in March, but underlying dynamics were mixed. Core CPI (ex-fresh food) rose from 1.6% to 1.8% , slightly above expectations but still below the BoJ's 2% target for a second straight month.

Core-core CPI (excludes both fresh food and energy) ticked down from 2.5% to 2.4% , the lowest level since October 2025. Meanwhile, headline CPI ticked up from 1.3% to 1.5% .

A key factor behind the softer inflation profile is government intervention in energy prices. The abolition of the provisional gasoline tax at the end of last year and continued subsidy programs have helped contain fuel costs. Energy costs fell -5.7% , up from -9.1% . Gasoline down -5.4% , up from -14.9% .

Meanwhile, cost pressures are building at the corporate level. The corporate services price index rose from 2.7% to 3.1% , pointing to increasing input costs across the economy.

Key insights from the week that was.

Regarding the Middle East conflict, the week began with the expectation of a second round of in-person talks between the US and Iran. The start of the negotiations was initially pushed from Tuesday to Wednesday; but President Trump then announced on Truth Social that the meeting had been postponed at the request of Pakistani and Iranian officials to allow time for a "unified proposal" to be developed to be put to the US. Thankfully, having been stretched by both sides at the weekend, the expiring two-week ceasefire was extended indefinitely.

Since Wednesday, there has been no concrete evidence of progress towards a deal, the Iranians seemingly refusing to come to the table while the US’ blockade remains in place, and the US refusing to end the blockade until a deal is agreed. Both sides have halted and seized ships within their area of operations, but this has not triggered a ceasefire breach – although it must be noted that President Trump overnight ordered the US Navy to strike any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, making clear the risk of further military conflict.

With no clear way out of the stalemate, or timeline for formal talks, the price of Brent oil has rebounded back to around USD106 having (very briefly) fallen as low as USD86 late last week. The longer the impasse persists, the greater the chance of a sustained period of high oil prices and refinery margins, with all costs eventually met by businesses and households across the world.

Central banks remain focused on the degree and persistence of price passthrough to domestic consumer inflation, the risk being that inflation persists well above target into 2027 on second-round effects and an uplift in inflation expectations. ECB President Lagarde this week noted that the staff currently view conditions in the Euro Area as between their baseline and adverse projections from the last meeting, and will act “as the situation demands” ahead. Next week’s run of central bank meetings across the northern hemisphere will provide a more detailed view on the balance of risks and the implications for monetary policy across the developed world.

In the US meanwhile, President Trump’s pick for the next FOMC Chair, Kevin Warsh, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the confirmation process. Warsh again made clear he believes several aspects of the FOMC’s communications and processes should change, but also showed a clear commitment to central bank independence. The next steps in Warsh’s confirmation remains highly uncertain, with Republican Senator Tillis refusing to approve the appointment at the Committee stage until the Department of Justice close their investigation into the Federal Reserve and Chair Powell. If Senator Tillis holds out until year end, the Administration may face an additional challenge in 2027 as their Senate majority is at risk in the mid-term election. Chair Powell will remain in place in the interim, giving the FOMC continuity and capacity to manage the US economy.

On data front this week, US retail sales rose 1.7% in March, beating expectations. The control group, which feeds into GDP, also surprised to the upside, 0.7%. For the quarter overall, however, the consumer pulse has been weak, and record-low confidence points to downside risks for Q2. The outlook for US business investment is also increasingly uncertain. Across the pond, the UK unemployment rate fell from 5.2% in January to 4.9% in February, though this reflected a decline in participation. Despite the softer labour market print, wages still rose 3.8%yr in February. A spike in energy prices also saw inflation rise 0.7% in March and 3.3% over the year. While the headlines focus on energy prices, sticky services inflation also remains an issue for the UK, 4.5%yr.

Our latest Market Outlook provides an in-depth view of the outlook for the US, Europe, China and global financial markets.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY regained traction and climbed above the 158.80 zone.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 159.35 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD started a downside correction and traded below 1.1750.
• GBP/USD started a consolidation phase below the 1.3550 pivot level.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar remained supported above 158.40 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a fresh increase above the 158.80 and 159.00 levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 159.00 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). Besides, the pair cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 159.35.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 160.00 or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the 159.53 swing high to the 157.60 low.

The first major resistance sits at 160.20. The main resistance could be 160.50. A close above 160.50 could open doors for gains above 161.20. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 162.00.

Immediate support is seen near 159.20, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The next support could be 158.50. A close below 158.50 might push the pair toward 158.00. The main support sits at 157.60. Any more losses could initiate a fresh move to 155.00 in the coming days.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to extend gains and recently corrected lower below the 1.1750 support.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April 2026 – Forecast 47.6, versus 47.6 previous.

Precious metals have been the victim of a severe reality check since late January.

Subjects of severe melt-ups since August 2025, following a slow but consistent grind higher from de-dollarization trends, the commodities got swept on all sides with extreme leverage and volatility.

And in Financial Markets, it rarely translates into anything good – Silver lost about 50% of its value in a flash crash during mid-February.

It has stalled its correction since, but the price action is still far from bullish.

Fast-forward to the beginning of the US-Iran War; A key narrative was the safe-haven appeal of the precious commodities, particularly gold, which has historically performed well during periods of tension.

But this safe-haven status was severely put in question during this conflict, as the asset class tumbled whenever Crude Oil and the US Dollar rallied, which were highly correlated with Stock Market movements.

With these Market dynamics, the question of whether metals aren't actually risk assets at current valuations is a logical one.

Metals performance since end 2025 – Source: TradingView. April 23, 2026

Still, Silver held relatively well, rebounding alongside other assets at the announcement of the Ceasefire and reaching +35% at its highs.

The issue, however, is that even with Equity benchmarks consolidating at all-time highs, the grey metal just isn't able to form a consistent uptrend. XAG just rejected its $84 resistance yet again, getting pressured by the cloudy peace narrative.

Will metals regain their safe-haven status in the event of a rebound in tensions?

Difficult to say for now – what is sure is that they faced high pressure from rising oil prices, so keep Black Gold in check if you want to trade the commodity.

We will dive into a Silver two-timeframe intraday analysis to prepare for a high-potential volatility event this coming weekend. Let's get right into it.

Silver (XAG/USD) Intraday timeframe Technical Analysis

4H Chart and Technical Levels

Silver 4H Chart, April 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver retraced higher by 35% after reaching new $61 cycle lows during the war, but Participants used the rebound to take-profit on the dip.

The precious metal is down 9.30%, has officially broken and retested its recovery bull channel, which is not giving a good look for bulls.

Now testing the low of its major $75 Pivot point, there is an ongoing battel between short-term bulls and bears – To get a better idea of who will win on the short-run, we need to take a closer look.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance $83 to $84.50
• Friday highs $83
• Higher timeframe Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs

Support Levels:

• Pivot lows $74.50 - $75
• $70 Minor Support
• December FOMC Minor Support $60 to $64 (Feb Lows)
• $61.10 War Lows
• $50 to $54 Major Support

1H Chart

Silver 1H Chart, April 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Bears took the back control of the action since last Friday, forming a counter-trend bear channel which remains key to short-term trading.

However, bulls are defending the Pivot Zone lows ($74.50 to $75) and will went to use this move to break above the 50-Hour MA ($77), acting as key area for sellers since the turn lower.

Above this, the next short term resistance is at $79.

A range could easily establish in this Pivot zone as long as the geopolitical situation remains cloudy.

Breakout traders should watch for pushes above or below these key intraday levels.

Safe Trades!