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Market Overview

The crypto market cap has fallen by approximately 2% over the past 24 hours to $2.41 trillion. The market is cooling after a mid-week surge, consistent with the trend of large capital selling on the growth. The price jump is generating impressive speculative interest, allowing large players to carefully sell larger volumes over a long period without putting excessive pressure on the price.

Bitcoin is cautiously retreating for the second day to $70.5K, having encountered resistance and exhausted its growth momentum from the liquidation of short positions a couple of days ago. Short-term obstacles to growth are the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% level of the decline from 14 January to 6 February. Bears are proving that they are in control, keeping Bitcoin within the correction range. In such conditions, there is a higher chance of movement towards the lower end of the range, which can be called typical behaviour for the end of the week in recent months.

The start of March has been quite successful for Ethereum, with gains after six weeks of decline. Particularly encouraging is the ability of the second-largest cryptocurrency to rebound from the long-term support level of the uptrend and attempt to consolidate above $2,000. Our attention here is focused on the $2,500 area, where the 200-week moving average is located. Consolidation above this level promises to be a prelude to a sustained recovery.

News Background

Messari has recorded the return of retail investors to the market. Net inflows into stablecoins jumped 415% to $1.7 billion over the week. The number of daily transfers increased by almost 10%.

According to Glassnode, 43% of Bitcoin’s market supply is in the red. With the further recovery of BTC, investors may start to get rid of coins, which will limit the possible growth. Additional pressure comes from miners. Mining profitability has fallen to historic lows amid high electricity prices.

Mining companies have been liquidating coins over the past few months, and recent reports from major players suggest the trend may intensify, according to TheEnergyMag.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes called Bitcoin’s recent rise above $70,000 a ‘dead cat bounce’ that does not signal a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. In his opinion, the price of the first cryptocurrency may go down again.

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1620 on Friday, with the US dollar on track to gain approximately 1% by the end of the week. The dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.

The joint US-Israel military operation against Iran continues into its seventh day. Tehran has responded with a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes targeting Gulf countries.

US President Donald Trump also stated that he would like to be involved in selecting Iran's next leader. At the same time, he described the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei – son of the late Supreme Leader – as unlikely.

Rising oil prices have heightened concerns over a new wave of global inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. Markets now anticipate the first Fed rate cut no earlier than September or October, revised down from the previous July forecast.

This week, the dollar strengthened most notably against the euro, reflecting the European economy's heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a compact consolidation range around the 1.1600 level. The current structure suggests a high probability of a wave developing towards 1.1533, with scope to extend further to 1.1500.

A downside breakout from this range would open the door for the second half of the momentum to unfold, with targets at least around 1.1400. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a growth wave targeting 1.1620, followed by a decline to form a consolidation range around 1.1600. An upside breakout from this range could trigger another growth leg to 1.1660, potentially extending to 1.1675, after which the broader downward trend is likely to resume towards 1.1500.

A downside breakout from the range would activate a continuation wave towards 1.1500, which could mark the completion of the third wave in the broader downward trend. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line has turned away from 80, indicating a short-term downward swing towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under significant pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive safe-haven flows into the US dollar, while pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns. The combination of delayed Fed rate cut expectations and Europe's particular vulnerability to energy disruptions has exacerbated the euro's weakness. With technical indicators pointing firmly lower, further downside appears likely, though short-term consolidation around key levels may precede the next leg of the downtrend.

Key takeaways

• Gold pulls back despite geopolitical tensions: Gold (XAU/USD) is down about 3% for the week after an earlier 20% four-week rally, even though the US–Iran war 2026 initially pushed prices to a record $5,420 intraday high.
• Rising real yields cap gold’s upside: A 21% surge in West Texas Intermediate crude oil lifted inflation expectations, pushing the US 10‑year Treasury real yield up by ~20 bps, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and dampening its safe-haven rally.
• Technical setup suggests possible rebound: Gold is holding near key support around $5,046 (20-day moving average and Fibonacci support). If prices break above $5,280, a bullish move toward $5,448 could follow, while a drop below $5,046 risks deeper downside toward $4,960–$4,842.

The prior 4 weeks of positive returns seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from the week of 2 February 2026 to the week of 23 February 2026, where the precious yellow metal staged an accumulated gain of 20% (low to close during the 4 weeks).

Right after the first salvo of missiles fired jointly by the US and Isreal in the current US-Iran war, Gold (XAU/USD) gapped up on Monday, 2 March 2026, at the start of the Asian session with an intraday rally of 2.7% to print an intraday high of $5,420 (also the highest level traded so far this week at the time of writing).

Gold is trading at a loss despite rising geopolitical risk premiums from US-Iran war

Fig. 1: Key global cross-asset performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 5 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

Thereafter, bullish momentum tapered off, and Gold (XAU/USD) is now trading at a week-to-date loss of 3% at the time of writing.

Also, based on last Friday’s 27 February closing levels to Thursday, 5 March prices, LMBA spot Gold and NYMEX Gold futures have recorded losses of -2.3% and -2.9% respectively (see Fig. 1).

The primary reason for Gold not staging a similar pace of gains seen in West Texas crude oil, Brent, and LNG amid rising geopolitical risk premiums is due to the fear of stagflation risk that may put the current expectations of two interest rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) by the US Federal Reserve in jeopardy, that also implies a rising risk of higher opportunity cost for holding Gold which is a non-interest income bearing asset.

Higher oil prices have triggered a jump in 10-year US Treasury real yield

Fig. 2: 10-year US Treasury real yield medium-term trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Higher oil prices seen this week (WTI crude jumped by 21%) have increased inflationary expectations, in turn, triggering a rise of 20 basis points (bps) in the 10-year US Treasury real yield (10-year US Treasury nominal yield minus 10-year US breakeven inflation rate) from its medium-term range support of 1.66% to a current level of 1.86% (see Fig. 2).

Interestingly, the current rally in the 10-year US Treasury real yield is now back close to the 200-day moving average (1.9%), and the key range resistance of 1.98% that capped prior rallies in check since 19 August 2025.

In addition, its daily Stochastic oscillator has reached its overbought region of above 80, which suggests that the current up move in the 10-year US Treasury real yield may start to taper off, in turn, allowing Gold (XAU/USD) to stage at least a minor bullish reversal at this juncture.

Let us now dissect the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Holding at the 20-day moving average support

Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the $5,046 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD) for a potential minor bullish reversal scenario, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at $5,192 and $5,280 (see Fig. 3).

A clearance above $5,280 is likely to see the bulls gaining traction to kickstart a minor bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next resistance to come in at $5,448 in the first step

However, a break and an hourly close below $5,046 invalidates the bullish reversal scenario for a further corrective slide towards the next intermediate supports at $4,960 and $4,842 (also the 50-day moving average).

Key elements to support the bullish bias on Gold (XAU/USD)

• The $5,046 key short-term support confluences with the 20-day moving average, minor ascending channel support, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor rally from the 17 February 2026 low to the 2 March 2026 high.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator has formed a “higher low” (bullish divergence condition) below its centreline, which suggests that the current bearish momentum may have eased.

The resilience of the Swiss economy and inflation remaining below 1% have made the Swiss franc an attractive safe-haven asset amid an extremely tense geopolitical backdrop and elevated gold prices. As the USD/CHF chart shows, the US dollar fell against the Swiss franc below 0.7650 in February — the lowest level since summer 2011.

However, the pair has since begun forming higher lows, suggesting that strong support is emerging in this area. The outbreak of intensified military activity in the Middle East this week has led to a rise in the USD, with the dollar also strengthening against the franc. Market participants may be starting to view the Swiss currency as an overvalued safe-haven asset.

Notably:

• → This week could mark the second-largest weekly gain since the beginning of 2025.
• → The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has already hinted at the possibility of currency interventions due to the “excessive strength of the franc”.

Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart

From a bearish perspective:

• → The 0.7870 level, which acted as support throughout 2025 (before being broken), has predictably served as resistance this week.
• → The rebound from the February low may be interpreted as a bearish flag pattern within the broader long-term downtrend, suggesting the potential continuation of that trend.

From a bullish perspective:

• → Buying pressure has clearly broken through local resistance (the red trend line), meaning the 0.7760 level may now act as support.
• → Price movements are forming the outlines of an ascending channel.

Given that USD/CHF is trading near multi-year lows, it is reasonable to assume that the projected blue trajectory may not represent merely a temporary rebound within a multi-month bearish trend, but could instead be part of a significant bullish reversal. In this scenario, the lower blue trend line takes on strategic importance.

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• USD/CAD stays rangebound with a downside bias.
• Momentum indicators’ prolonged flatlining mirrors consolidation.

USD/CAD remains on the defensive, continuing to trade within the range established since mid‑February, with price action capped between the 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages (SMAs) inside the tight 1.3645-1.3700 band. The Canadian dollar is still under pressure against a firmer US dollar, though it remains relatively bid amid rising oil prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The momentum indicators reinforce the multi‑week muted tone, with the RSI flatlining near the neutral 50 mark and the MACD compressing around its zero and red signal lines, pointing to limited upside in the near term.

Price action is currently drifting lower within its range after repeated rejections at the short‑term downtrend line. Initial support is located at the 20‑day SMA at 1.3645, sitting just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January decline at 1.3635. A break below these levels would expose support at 1.3575 and then the four‑month low near 1.3471, last touched in late January.

On the upside, a decisive break above the 50‑day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3730 – where the short‑term downtrend line also intersects – would shift the bias higher. Such a move would open the path toward the 200‑day SMA near the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3809, which recently formed a ‘death cross’ with the 50‑day SMA, adding further technical weight against sustained upside.

Overall, USD/CAD is losing momentum as it edges toward the lower bound of its multi‑week consolidation, with the earlier rebound from four‑month lows stalling. While the broader downtrend remains intact, downside risks may be limited if the pair continues to hold above the 20‑day SMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.58; (P) 210.10; (R1) 211.02; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 214.98 should have completed at 207.20 already. On the upside, above 212.10 will resume the rebound from 207.20 to retest 214.98 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.20 holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that price actions from 214.98 might be a near term consolidation pattern only. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, though, break of 207.20 will revive that case that it's already in a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.31; (P) 182.70; (R1) 183.29; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 184.75 will target 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, break of 180.87 support will argue that fall from 186.86 is at least correcting whole rise from 154.77, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 186.86 are merely a near term corrective pattern. In other words, the long term up trend is still in progress. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 180.78 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8687; (P) 0.8700; (R1) 0.8715; More…

Decline from 0.8788 is in progress and intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside. The pattern from 0.8863 could already be in the third leg. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8611 support. On the upside, above 0.8711 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 should confirm that it's reversing whole down trend from 0.9267. That should pave the way back to 0.9267. However, sustained break of 0.8611 support will indicate rejection by 0.8867 and indicate bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6460; (P) 1.6530; (R1) 1.6637; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will resume the larger fall from 1.8554 to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6691 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside fro stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.6979).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9051; (P) 0.9064; (R1) 0.9080; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment, and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 0.9026 short term bottom are viewed as a consolidations pattern only. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.9168 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9026 at 0.9167). Another fall below 0.9026 to resume the larger down trend is expected at a later stage. However, decisive break of 0.9167/8 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.9181) and above.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.