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US Dollar

The US dollar has continued its advance amid a reduced likelihood of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. The US has ruled out military action and intends to deprive Iran of oil revenues by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This long-term game risks extending the rally in Brent and WTI. This will deal a blow to the eurozone, which is dependent on energy imports. Under these conditions, Germany has halved its 2026 GDP forecast, from 1% to 0.5%, and the EURUSD pair has retreated.

Rising oil prices are weighing on the euro due to deteriorating trade conditions within the currency bloc. However, for most of April, EURUSD rose as investors bought into rumours of productive talks between the US and Iran. As soon as it became clear that the opposing sides had reached a stalemate, the regional currency began to be sold off on the back of the facts.

The euro’s retreat is reinforcing the S&P 500’s rapid rally. The broad stock index has hit a new record high, driven by bargain-hunting by the market crowd amid expectations of strong corporate earnings. The US economy will suffer less from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high oil prices than the European economy. As a result, alongside FOMO (the fear of missing out), the theme of American exceptionalism may return to markets. Under such conditions, the USD index and equities will move in the same direction.

Stock indices

The US stock market has concluded that the worst of the conflict in the Middle East is behind us. Oil prices have not skyrocketed, and the rise has not triggered a global recession. Hostilities have given way to a ceasefire, and the parties are moving towards a diplomatic settlement of their disputes. So, it is time to put geopolitics aside and focus on fundamentals. Expectations of strong corporate earnings reports and attractive company valuations have catalysed the S&P 500 rally.

At first glance, the surge in the US stock market was driven by the success of a handful of large-cap companies. When the broad stock index hit a new October high, only 11 S&P companies reached 52-week highs. In the 2021 bull market, around 90% of issuers were trading above their 200-day moving averages. Now, only 60% are.

Nevertheless, the market always follows the leaders. This is likely to manifest as increased trading volumes in US shares. In April, these volumes were 11% below their average levels over the past six months. In March, by contrast, against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, they were 9.5% higher.

Gold

The strengthening of the US dollar is forcing gold into a defensive stance. The precious metal rose in the first half of April on expectations that the conflict’s peak had passed and that de-escalation would lead to lower oil prices. As this has not yet happened, investors have adopted a worrying scenario: that central banks will be forced to tighten monetary policy on a massive scale due to high inflation.

According to the Amundi asset management company, the surge in consumer prices triggered by the energy shock is likely to be temporary rather than permanent. Core inflation will be better contained than in 2022. This will reduce the need for central banks to adopt a more ‘hawkish’ stance, thereby supporting gold.

Central bank bullion sales could put pressure on the price of the precious metal. Since the start of the year, Russia has sold 22 tonnes to finance its budget deficit. As a result, the country’s gold reserves have fallen to 2,304 tonnes.

Cryptocurrency

Improved global risk appetite and new record highs for US stock indices have breathed new life into Bitcoin. Prices have reached their highest levels since late January, and the upward momentum stands a good chance of continuing following Donald Trump’s announcement of an indefinite extension of the ceasefire. Investors have concluded that the peak of the conflict escalation has passed and have begun buying risky assets.

Geopolitics has helped Bitcoin outperform gold. The precious metal has lost around 10% of its value since the start of the bombing of Iran, whereas the cryptocurrency has risen by 15%. In recent days, Bitcoin has frequently ignored the bad news and focused solely on the good. This points to ‘bullish’ sentiment in the market.

The most steadfast Bitcoin supporters have come out on top. For instance, Michael Saylor’s Strategy has been to buy up tokens despite the price decline. By the end of the week on the 19th of April, it had acquired $2.54 billion worth of digital assets. This is the largest purchase since November 2024.

What next?

Markets are tired of geopolitics and will be keen to see how central banks respond to the first signs of rising inflation caused by the conflict in the Middle East and high oil prices. Japan, Canada, the UK and the eurozone will announce their interest rate decisions. Although no changes to monetary policy are expected, investors will be watching closely for ‘hawkish’ signals.

Central banks face a difficult choice. Accelerating inflation requires them to raise rates, whilst slowing economic growth calls for a loosening of monetary policy. Most likely, the ECB and other regulators will keep the door open to monetary tightening and continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.

In the meantime, Donald Trump never tires of talking about negotiations. If investors once again believe the US president, the fall in EURUSD risks coming to a halt.

Markets will not overlook the story of Congress’s consideration of Kevin Warsh’s nomination for the post of Fed Chair. The new central bank chief’s appointment may be delayed due to opposition from some Republicans.

• The US dollar is gaining amid persistent inflationary risks.
• Traders are betting on the ECB’s 2022 playbook, selling the euro.

The US dollar has strengthened over five of the last six sessions, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and investor confidence that the US economy will fare better than the rest of the world. Purchasing Managers’ Indexes showed clear signs of stagflation, with price indices rising, while overall business activity is slowing. Meanwhile, the European PMI fell to a 17-month low.

According to Joachim Nagel, Donald Trump’s attacks on the Fed are fuelling mistrust in American institutions and a flight from US assets and the dollar. He cited a 2025 Bundesbank study that found that the president’s pressure on the central bank led to rising inflation expectations, lower Treasury bond yields, and a weaker dollar.

Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump’s threats to sack Jerome Powell if he remained in the FOMC after his term as chair expired put pressure on the greenback. However, the growing risks of a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East triggered the opposite process. Instead of fleeing the US, investors are actively buying up American assets. They believe that the US economy will fare better than the rest of the world.

Traders are following the 2022 pattern, when Europe, weighed down by the energy crisis, was unable to offer any resistance to the US, and the EURUSD fell below parity. Not least, this was a consequence of the ECB’s slower response to rising inflation. The Fed began raising rates in March, while the European Central Bank only followed suit in July.

This time, Christine Lagarde and her team intend to act decisively. Bloomberg experts do not expect the ECB to tighten monetary policy in April. However, at the upcoming meeting, the Governing Council is certain to signal its readiness to raise rates.

Meanwhile, the USDJPY’s approach to the psychologically significant 160 mark has triggered a fresh wave of verbal interventions. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that officials are in close contact with their American counterparts around the clock to counter speculators weakening the yen. The authorities have sufficient funds to counter them.

On Friday, the price of gold remained below 4,700 USD per ounce. For the week, the price is expected to decline by approximately 3.0%, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz support rising energy prices and heighten concerns about inflation.

Both sides are maintaining their blockades of this strategically vital waterway, with peace talks showing little progress.

US President Donald Trump said on social media on Thursday that he had ordered the US Navy to target and destroy any vessels laying mines in the strait. US troops also boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean.

Meanwhile, the truce between the US and Iran has been extended indefinitely, as Washington awaits a new formal proposal from Tehran. The truce between Israel and Lebanon has also been prolonged for three weeks.

High energy prices are reinforcing inflation risks and strengthening expectations of potential interest rate hikes by central banks. Collectively, these factors are weighing on gold, reducing its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,685 USD level. An upside breakout could push prices towards 4,755 USD, while a downside break could lead to a decline towards 4,616 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the 4,693 USD level and continues to move lower towards 4,616 USD. A corrective rebound towards 4,750 USD (testing from below) is likely, followed by a possible decline to 4,690 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold is poised to close the week nearly 3.0% lower amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which continue to dominate market sentiment. Both sides maintain their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, while peace talks show little progress. President Trump's stance, ordering the Navy to destroy mines and board an Iranian oil tanker, has kept energy prices elevated and inflation concerns firmly in focus. Although truces with Iran and Lebanon have been prolonged, the lack of meaningful progress towards a resolution continues to weigh on gold. With central banks potentially leaning towards rate hikes amid persistent inflation, the non-yielding metal faces a challenging environment. Technical indicators suggest further downside towards 4,616 USD in the near term.

• On the daily chart, USD/CHF is in a recovery phase, currently sandwiched between the 50-day MA (0.7845) and 100-day MA (0.7865).
• The H4 chart shows a more defined bullish structure, featuring a "Golden Cross" (100-period MA above 200-period MA).
• Failure to hold above the 0.7846 short-term support would negate the bullish setup and likely lead to a retest of the 0.7828 support level.

USD/CHF Daily Chart: Building a Base Above Key Support

The daily timeframe shows USD/CHF in a recovery phase following the sharp sell-off witnessed in early 2026. After bottoming out near the 0.7600 handle, the pair has formed a series of higher lows, currently supported by an ascending trendline.

Price action is currently sandwiched between the 50-day MA (0.7845) and the 100-day MA (0.7865). A daily candle close above the 100-day MA would be a significant bullish signal, suggesting a shift in medium-term momentum.

However, the overhead 200-day MA at 0.7937 remains the "line in the sand" for bulls. Until that level is reclaimed, the overall daily structure remains cautious.

The RSI is hovering around the 50 midline, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction at this stage.

USD/CHF Daily Chart, April 24, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

H4 Chart: Testing the Golden Cross Zone

Moving down to the 4-hour chart, we see a more defined bullish structure. USD/CHF has successfully pushed above the 0.7828 horizontal support level, which previously acted as a ceiling during the consolidation in mid-April.

Notably, the H4 chart shows the 100-period MA crossing above the 200-period MA, often a precursor to sustained bullish momentum.

Price is currently testing the 200-period MA (0.7887). A sustained break above this level would open the door for a retest of the psychological 0.8000 resistance area. The RSI on this timeframe is rising toward 65.00, suggesting there is still room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions.

USD/CHF Four-Hour Chart, April 24, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

H1 Chart: Intra-day Scenarios and Key Levels

The 1-hour chart provides a granular view of the current breakout attempt. Price has found a foothold above all three major moving averages (50, 100, and 200), which are now beginning to fan out, supporting the bullish thesis.

Potential Bullish Scenario: If USD/CHF can maintain its position above the 0.7846 level (the recent swing high and current H1 support), bulls will likely target the 0.7887 (H4 200 MA) followed by the 0.7920 area. A clean break of 0.7920 would suggest a run toward the major psychological barrier at 0.8000. The path of least resistance currently appears to be to the upside, provided the 0.7840-0.7828 support zone holds.

Potential Bearish Scenario: Failure to clear the immediate overhead resistance near 0.7870/80 could result in a "bull trap." If the pair slips back below the 0.7846 mark, it would likely revisit the 0.7828 support level. A break below 0.7828 would negate the short-term bullish bias and could see the pair slide back toward the 0.7800 handle as sellers regain control.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 0.7887, 0.7937, 0.8000
• Support: 0.7846, 0.7828, 0.7780

USD/CHF One-Hour Chart, April 24, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

USD/CHF is at a critical juncture. The daily chart shows a recovery in progress, while the lower timeframes suggest an imminent breakout. Traders should watch the 0.7887 level closely; a breakout here could ignite a fresh wave of buying interest heading into the weekend.

SNB Chair Martin Schlegel warned that the Middle East conflict is injecting significant uncertainty into the global economy, with rising energy prices set to push inflation higher in the months ahead. He noted that “the higher energy prices will lead to a further increase in inflation in many countries,” while also cautioning that global growth is likely to "slow temporarily".

Schlegel acknowledged that external shocks are beyond the control of the Swiss National Bank, stating that “the SNB cannot change the uncertain global environment.” However, he emphasized that policymakers remain focused on domestic stability and are capable of navigating these challenges.

He stressed that the SNB stands ready to act if needed, saying “we are prepared to adjust our monetary policy at any time.” Backed by institutional independence and a well-established framework, Schlegel expressed confidence that the central bank is “well equipped to ensure that we continue to fulfil our mandate”.

Germany’s business sentiment deteriorated sharply in April, with the Ifo Business Climate Index dropping from 86.3 to 84.4, the lowest level since May 2020. The decline reflects broad-based weakness, with both the Current Situation Index and Expectations Index falling to 85.4 and 83.3 respectively.

The drop in expectations signals growing concern over the economic outlook, as the impact of the Iran crisis feeds through rising energy costs and uncertainty. Services were hit the hardest, slipping deeper into negative territory, while manufacturing and trade showed modest improvements but remained firmly pessimistic overall.

The data underscores the vulnerability of Germany’s economy to external shocks, particularly energy disruptions. With sentiment deteriorating and expectations weakening further, the outlook points to a continued slowdown, reinforcing concerns that the Eurozone’s largest economy is being hit hard by the ongoing crisis.

Full German Ifo release here.

Key takeaways

• Pullback driven by geopolitical risk and USD strength: EUR/USD declined ~1.5% from its recent high as stalled US–Iran talks and rising oil prices boosted safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
• Macro backdrop turning supportive for euro: A steepening Eurozone–US rate differential suggests a relatively less dovish ECB versus the Fed, providing underlying support for EUR/USD.
• Technical setup points to potential rebound: Price is testing key support at 1.1665/1.1635 with bullish signals (trend above major MAs, RSI divergence, ascending channel), indicating a possible reversal unless support breaks.

The EUR/USD hit a recent two-month high of 1.1849 printed on last Friday, 17 April 2026, and turned soft due to the stalled second round of US-Iran peace talks, where it declined by 1.5% to hit a low of 1.1669 on Thursday, 23 April 2026.

Secondly, cracks have appeared in the extended ceasefire agreement, where both sides are using force to prevent oil tankers from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a 10% plus rally in oil prices, increasing the appeal of short-term safe haven demand status on the US dollar.

Interestingly, the EUR/USD’s five-day decline from its recent two-month high has reached an inflection area for a potential bullish reversal from a technical analysis and intermarket perspective.

Let’s uncover these factors in greater detail.

Eurozone/US implied interest rate policy curve spread has steepened

Fig. 1: Eurozone-US implied interest rate policy curve spread as of 23 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro).

The monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the Eurozone and the US are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' monetary policies

The current Eurozone/US implied interest rate policy curve spread for the period from May 2026 to September 2026 has steepened from three months ago, with the current September 2026 reading standing at -1.32% compared to -1.37% three months ago (see Fig. 1).

These observations suggest that the ECB is likely to be less dovish or more hawkish than the Fed, which in turn could provide support for a potentially firmer EUR/USD.

Let’s now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD – Minor uptrend phase from 13 March 2026 low remains intact

Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 24 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Despite the five-day decline seen in the EUR/USD, its price actions are still trading above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.

Watch the 1.1665/1635 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 1.1722 (potential upside trigger) may see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 1.1790, 1.1835, and 1.1890 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.1635 and an hourly close below it invalidates the bullish reversal scenario to see the continuation of the corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.1575 and 1.1510.
Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on EUR/USD

The five-day decline of the EUR/USD has reached the intersection area of the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, where the 20-day MA is now shaping an impending bullish crossover above the 50-day MA.
The price actions of the EUR/USD have continued to oscillate within its minor ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.
The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just shaped a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region on Thursday, 23 April 2026.

Market Overview

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell by 0.6% over the past 24 hours to $2.59 trillion. Leading the gains are the anonymous Zcash (+9.1%), Theta (+6.2%), and Cosmos (+3.6%). Among the underperformers are Toncoin (−1.8%), despite positive news, as well as the major players Ethereum (−1.5%) and Polkadot (−1.2%). Meanwhile, the US S&P 500 is hovering around 7,100, whilst the Nasdaq 100 is testing new highs at 27,000. It appears that the crypto market is once again waiting for a boost from the stock markets to continue its climb.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate around $78K. Attempts to push prices below $77K have met with confident buying. The leading cryptocurrency remains in an uptrend that began in early April, with fairly active buying on dips, and the price is currently roughly in the middle of this channel, which ranges from $75.6K to $80.5K. If this pace continues, it will take just over two weeks to reach the 200-day moving average, but we expect to see an acceleration in growth soon, along with more intense fluctuations in key indicators of the long-term trend.

News Background

QCP Capital believes that the Bitcoin rally is temporary and will not alter the bearish trend of recent months. Risky assets are feeling more confident solely due to the extension of the truce and the stance of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who has confirmed the agency’s complete independence.

The options market also does not confirm a trend reversal. Short-term volatility remains low, and downside protection remains in demand.

At K33 Research, they are more confident that the rally in the leading cryptocurrency will continue. The divergence between BTC’s rise and negative funding rates makes the market tactically vulnerable to a short squeeze. However, the $79K–$80K zone presents a barrier, as it coincides with the realised price of short-term holders — a group of investors more likely to sell as prices rise. CryptoQuant also refers to the $80K level as a “critical inflexion point”.

A 50% correction in the leading cryptocurrency from its October highs could lead to new highs — the stronger the pullback, the more powerful the subsequent rally, said Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano. According to him, “Bitcoin has become the king of safe havens in all kinds of chaos”.

Recent attacks on the Drift and Kelp protocols, following which users withdrew more than $15 billion from the DeFi sector, may temporarily dampen Wall Street firms’ interest in blockchain technologies, according to Jefferies.

Rising oil prices amid risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have strengthened global inflation expectations. According to the Pentagon, clearing the strait could take at least six months, sustaining uncertainty in commodity markets and weighing on risk assets overall — a category that typically includes cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains resilient. As of 20 April, spot ETFs recorded five consecutive days of inflows, with daily volumes around $238 million, while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) executed its largest purchase since late 2024, acquiring 34,164 BTC worth $2.54 billion. However, analysts at CryptoQuant note that the current price momentum is being driven primarily by the perpetual futures market, while spot demand is declining. A similar pattern was observed in January ahead of the correction from $98,000, suggesting that the market remains vulnerable.

Technical picture

Since October 2025, Bitcoin has been trading within a descending parallel channel, with the lower boundary tested in February 2026 when the price fell to around $60,000 amid exceptionally high trading volumes typical of a selling climax. Following this low, the market shifted into recovery mode, and in the first half of April 2026, the price broke above the upper boundary of the channel and managed to hold above it.

At the same time, the price moved beyond the upper edge of the horizontal volume zone between $65,000 and $73,000, where most trading activity had been concentrated in previous months. This zone now lies below current levels. The nearest resistance is seen at $90,000, while support stands at $63,000. The RSI with moving averages shows readings of 64 / 61 / 56 — the oscillator remains above both moving averages, which are trending upwards, indicating ongoing buying pressure. Vertical volume in recent sessions remains moderate, with no clear signs of acceleration.
Summary

The horizontal volume zone has shifted below the current price, signalling a structural tilt in favour of buyers. The RSI remains above its moving averages, confirming bullish pressure, though recent trading volumes do not yet indicate a strong acceleration in momentum. Resistance at $90,000 and support at $63,000 define the key range within which the next phase of market structure is likely to develop.

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The euro remains under pressure, extending its corrective decline following the previous impulsive rally. Market participants are taking profits and trimming positions ahead of key macroeconomic releases, reducing demand for the single currency and keeping both pairs near important levels, with the potential for increased volatility.

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to act as an additional factor, particularly through its impact on commodity markets, especially oil. Fluctuations in energy prices are influencing inflation expectations and the outlook for monetary policy, which is particularly relevant for commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar.

Focus now shifts to upcoming data from the euro area, Canada, and the United States, which may reshape expectations regarding the next steps of major central banks. Weak or neutral data could increase pressure on the euro and extend the current downside move, while stronger figures may provide support and trigger a corrective rebound or stabilisation near current levels.

EUR/USD

After forming a bearish reversal pattern last week, EUR/USD continues to trade within a corrective downtrend. Sellers managed to push the pair below the key 1.1700 support level yesterday. If this level turns into resistance, a retest of recent lows and further decline towards 1.1630–1.1600 may follow.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 09:45 (GMT+3): France consumer confidence
• today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany IFO business climate index
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US inflation expectations (University of Michigan)

EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD is also moving lower, testing important levels amid mixed fundamental drivers. Technical analysis points to the possibility of further downside towards 1.6000–1.5940, supported by a confirmed bearish “tweezer” pattern on the daily chart. A move above 1.6050 could bring buyers back into the market.

Key events for EUR/CAD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada core retail sales
• today at 18:00 (GMT+3): Canada budget balance
• today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC CAD net speculative positions

Both pairs remain near key levels, with future direction dependent on a combination of fundamental factors. Depending on incoming data, the market may either shift into consolidation with attempts to hold support, or see an extension of the current corrective decline.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.