Euro Prone to Downside as PMIs Awaited, Traders Shrug US Debate
It appears that the stock markets couldn't care less about the last debate before US Presidential election. Major Asian indices are trading in right range with mild gains. Nevertheless, Yen is trying to lead Dollar for a comeback while European majors are losing their strong position. In particular, Euro...
Dollar Recovers Mildly after Job Data, Markets Tread Water
Dollar recovers in early US session, with help from better than expected job data. Yet, it remains the weakest one for the week at this point. Buying momentum for the greenback doesn't warrant a reversal yet. The forex markets are mixed for now, with mild weakness in Sterling and...
Sterling to Take the Limelight as Dollar Takes a Breather
Dollar recovers mildly in Asian session today but remains generally weak, as the worst performing one for the week so far. Sellers appear to be taking a breather for now, and wait for fresh development regarding fiscal stimulus, as well as the final Presidential debate before election. For now,...
OPEC+ Meeting Acknowledged Weak Demand Outlook. US Crude Inventory Slipped, while Gasoline Stockpile Gained for First Time in 3 Weeks
The meeting among OPEC+ producers to discuss about revision of output cuts was inconclusive. While a number of OPEC+ producers agreed that weak oil demand outlook might justify more reduction in output, it's yet to know how much more is needed. A greater problem is compliance. As we noted...
Dollar and US Treasuries Dive Together, Funds Moving Out?
Dollar tumbles sharply today together with US treasuries. 10-year yield breaks above 0.8% handle but that's giving no support to the greenback. Instead, in a rather unusual development, Yen surges sharply at the same time. Stock futures are just steady. There are talks about the renewed hope for a...
Dollar Pressured on US Stimulus Hope Again, Euro Stays Strong
Dollar is under some selling pressure since overnight as US politicians were still optimistic in closing a fresh stimulus deal by election. This appears to be the most volatility triggering theme for the near term for now. Commodity currencies are trying to recover in Asian session today but Aussie...
Euro and Swiss Franc Rally as Markets Expect More Negative Rates Elsewhere
Markets continue to be dominated by strength of Euro and Swiss Franc today. That comes in spite of surging coronavirus infections in Europe. Meanwhile, the deadlock of Brexit negotiations remain. Traders are apparently adding to bet that more global central banks, like RBA and BoE, are joining the negative...
Aussie Bears in Control on RBA, Euro Strength Continues
Australia's Dollar's decline is resuming today as RBA minutes, as well ass comments from a top official solidify the case for imminent easing in November. Weaker risk sentiments also weigh on commodity currencies in general, after US stocks reversed initial gains to close sharply lower. Euro and Swiss Franc...
RBA Minutes Reveal Strong Conviction to Further Easing in November
RBA's minutes for the October meeting offered more supports that further easing will be rolled out soon. Potential measures include rate cuts and asset purchases. The bottom line is that the policy rate will not go negative. Assistant Governor Christopher Kent's speech earlier today signaled strongly the easing bias....
Dollar Weakens on Renewed Stimulus Hope, Euro Surges
Dollar and Yen are back under notable selling pressure today. US investors are apparently ignoring continuing surge in global coronavirus infections, which broke 40m mark. Instead, there is renewed hope of fresh fiscal stimulus, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a pre-election deal remains possible. Meanwhile, UK and EU...
Sentiments Lifted Slightly by Upbeat Chinese Data, But Movements Limited
Commodity currencies follow Asian markets slightly higher today, with support from solid economic data from China. On the other hand, Euro and Swiss Franc are softer on concerns over record coronavirus infections and return to lockdown. Additionally, Euro could face more pressure if recent steep decline in German yields...
China’s GDP Growth Missed Consensus. Strong Activity Data Support Renminbi’s Outlook
The latest set of China's macroeconomic data is mixed in the headline. GDP growth in the third quarter came in below market expectation. However, major indicators such as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all beat consensus, confirming recovery is underway. Against this backdrop, we expect PBOC...
Chaotic Markets With Many Themes Going On
It's a rather chaotic week with many themes developing. The first October surprise of US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infects seemed to have fade as he's back in election campaign. Just as challenger Joe Biden appeared to be widening lead, according to mainstream polls, another October surprise surfaced with...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Index Futures Drifted Back to NET LENGTH as Greenback Rebounded
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 13, USD Index futures drifted to NET LENGTH of 437 contracts. Speculative long positions increased +1 601 contracts and short positions dropped -1 870 contracts. It is likely that NET LENGTH will increase further in...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets of Lower Gold Price Markedly Increaed
WTI crude oil price fluctuated about US$40/bbl last week. Latest forecasts from major oil agencies suggest that impacts of the pandemic on demand will be long-lasting. This could be a barrier for price to go higher. Bets on gold increased in both directions. However, short positions more than doubled...
Sterling Range Bound after Volatility, Brexit Talks Still Going to Continue
Sterling is a focus today in otherwise relatively quiet markets. Brexit jitters triggered much volatility in the Pound. But it's staying in range as, after all, negations between UK and EU will still continue next week, probably with some intensifications. As for the week, Australian Dollar remains the weakest...
Dollar & Yen Firm, But More Needed to Prove Their Strength
Dollar and Yen remain generally firm in Asian session while Australian and New Zealand Dollars are soft. US stocks pared back much of the initial losses overnight with DOW ended nearly flat. Overall sentiments are also stable and mixed in Asia only. Coronavirus infections and politics, like US election...
US Crude Oil Inventory Declined Further. Distillate Stockpile Dived on Demand Recovery
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended October 9. Crude oil inventory fell -3.82 mmb (consensus: -2.84 mmb) to 489.11 mmb. Stockpile gained in 3 out...
Safe Haven Flows Back to Dollar, Yen and Bonds
Risk aversion is currently in driving seat in the markets today. In the US, hope of fresh fiscal stimulus fades for now, most likely not until after elections. In Europe, countries are going back into lockdowns as coronavirus cases hit records. Negative sentiment drive global stock indices lower and...
Aussie Weakens Broadly as RBA Hints on Further Easing, Risk Sentiments Turn Soft
Australian Dollar drops broadly today after RBA hints at more monetary easing next month. It's also weighed down by mixed job data, as well as weaker risk sentiments. It now appears that US politicians won't agree to a new stimulus deal before election. US stock indices struggled to get...