Gold’s Rally Set to Resume, Supported by Low Yield, Geopolitics and Second Virus Wave
Gold price has gained +2.6% since our last update. Less than $1/oz shy of the all-time high, it is likely that yellow metal's rally will resume very soon. Indeed, expansionary monetary policy, renewed geopolitical tensions in Asia (between North and South Korea, and between India and China, and concerns...
Dollar Softens Further in Mixed Markets, Risk Mildly on the Downside
The global risk markets are generally mixed today. While major European indices are trading slightly in red, US futures point to a higher open. Yen and Dollar remain the weakest ones for today so far, followed by Swiss Franc. New Zealand and Australian Dollar are the strongest ones. But...
Dollar Softer in Quiet Trading as Traders Await Global PMIs
The forex markets open the week in quiet mode, which Asian stocks are mixed. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are mildly higher. Dollar, Yen and Canadian are softer. But major pairs and crosses are generally stuck inside Friday's range. The economic calendar is rather light today. Traders could probably...
RBNZ Preview: Cautiously Optimistic about Recovery while Pledges to Do More if Needed
RBNZ is likely to leave the OCR unchanged record low of 0.25% in June. Meanwhile, the size of the LSAP program (QE) will also stay at NZD 60B. Control of the coronavirus pandemic in the country has been more effective than previously anticipated. Policymakers will be more optimistic about...
Coronavirus Cases Skyrocketed Again, But Risk Seekers Not Giving Up Yet
Just like many governments and central bankers, the markets were torn between the optimism over re-opening of the economic, and the imminent risk of coronavirus second wave. This is reflected in the general strength in Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc last week. Yet, commodity currencies were relatively resilient, as...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Crude Oil as Price Climbed to 3-Month High
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 16, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -21 637 contracts to 546 272 for the week. Speculative long positions declined -26 451 contracts while shorts dropped -4 814 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Index Futures Drifted to Net Short
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 16, USD Index drifted to NET SHORT of 5 344 contracts. Speculative long positions decreased -10 080 contracts and short positions slipped -47 contracts. Traders trimmed bets on US dollar as risk appetite lifted other...
Canadian Dollar Shrugs Terrible Retail Sales, Taken Mildly Higher by Oil Price
Sterling remains the weakest one among the major currencies as selloff continues. Though, Dollar and Yen are catching up today while markets turned back into risk-on mode. Commodity currencies are generally firmer as led by Aussie. Even Canadian Dollar shrugs of terrible April retail sales data. Instead, the Loonie...
Sterling Weakness Continues as Markets Tread Water
The financial markets are generally treading water in Asian session today, with very limited movements. Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar are the strongest ones for the weak so far. But there is not much committed buying seen yet. On the other hand, Sterling is the worst performing one for...
BOE Expands QE Size, but Slows Pace of Purchases
BOE turned out to be less pessimistic than we had anticipated. The members acknowledged that global economic contraction in 2Q20 will be “less severe than expected”. While the size of QE is expanded, the members will likely slow the pace of asset buying. The policy rate stayed unchanged at...
Sterling Tumbles after BoE, Markets in Mild Risk-Off Mode
Sterling drops notably today after BoE announced to expand the asset purchase program as widely expected. Australian Dollar is currently following as second weakest, then New Zealand Dollar. Markets are in slight risk-off mode today, as European indices are trading in slight red. Yen and Dollar ride on the...
SNB Intervened Aggressively to Weaken Franc and Pledged to Continue So
SNB left the monetary policy unchanged in June. Meanwhile, the members reiterated the commitment to intervene in the currency market as Swiss franc has remained “highly valued”. Economic and inflation forecasts for this year were sharply downgraded as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and related restrictive measures .
On...
Yen Mildly Higher as Focus Turns to SNB and BoE
The forex markets continue to be lacking a clear direction for now. New Zealand and Australian Dollar are mildly softer today, following weaker than expected data. But losses are so far limited. Yen, Euro and Dollar strengthen mildly but there is also no follow through buying. Focus will turn...
US Crude Inventory Surprisingly Increased, while Petroleum Product Stocks Declined
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose +7.09 mmb to 1446.72 mmb in the week ended June 12. Crude oil inventory added +1.22 mmb (consensus: -0.15 mmb) to 538.07 mmb. Stockpile fell in 2 out...
Euro and Sterling Weaken While Swiss Franc Surge, Dollar Mixed
Swiss Franc surges broadly today and it's currently the strongest one. There is no clear sign of risk aversion in other markets, with major European indices in black, while DOW futures is slightly higher. Yen is also generally soft too. Franc's strength might be an indication of concerns over...
Sterling Turns Softer after CPI, Markets Range-bound Elsewhere
The forex markets are generally in range trading today, with mild weakness seen in Sterling after CPI release. Markets are staying in mild risk-on mode, with Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar firmer. However, there is no one-sided risk trading as see in the divergence in Yen and Swiss Franc....
Downside Risks of Crude OIl Price Rising Despite Recent Optimism
Crude oil prices have remained firm, supported by positive news from both OPEC+ and better demand/supply outlook. The latest monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has depicted a more optimistic outlook on the oil market. The agency raised its global oil demand forecast to 91.7M bpd for...
Selling Focus Turns to Euro as Dollar Turns Mixed
Dollar turns mixed in early US session as selloff turns to Euro today. New Zealand Dollar is the second weakest as the country's coronavirus -free days ended. Yen, Dollar and Swiss Fran are not performing well, though, as markets remains in strong risk-on mode. On the other hand, Sterling...
Another U-Turn in Sentiments on Fed, Dollar Back Under Pressure
Sentiments took another U-turn as Fed did the trick again, with expansion of its asset purchases. Asia markets surge broadly, following the strong rebound in US overnight. Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are back under pressure. But New Zealand Dollar is the worst performing one for today so far,...
BOE to Expand QE and Discuss Negative Rates
Although there are signs that the coronavirus outbreak in the UK is stabilizing, its economic impact has just been emerged. Record contraction in GDP, sharp slowdown in inflation and weak employment indicators suggest that the BOE would have to maintain a very expansionary monetary policy stance. Together with lukewarm...