Dollar Firm as NFP Awaited, Euro Broadly Weak
Dollar is currently trading as the strongest one for the week, followed by Yen. On the other hand, Euro and Swiss Franc are both the weakest ones for now. Overall sentiments in the market are mildly risk averse but there is no committed move. Oil price was given a...
Muted Reactions to Jobless Claims, Dollar Picking Up Some Buying, Euro Weak
It seems that the markets are not having a clue on what to do next. While US initial jobless claims doubled to 6.6m, reactions are rather muted. DOW futures are staying positive for now, while European indices are mixed. Dollar seems to be picking up some buying after the...
Manufacturing PMI and Inflation in the Eurozone Reveal that Eurozone is Approaching Recession
Latest indicators for virus-haunted Eurozone’s economic developments suggest that the region is very close to recession. While accelerating QE, ECB refrained from lowering the policy rate March. We expect it would be obliged to do so in April. Meanwhile, coordinated fiscal action by the European Commission might be needed...
Dollar and Yen Rally Still Lack Conviction, Range Trading Continues
US stocks suffered the worst start to a quarter in history overnight. But Asian markets are generally steady after initial weakness. Other markets are generally stuck in familiar range. Dollar and Yen remain the strongest one for the week but there is still no clear follow through buying. Oil...
US Oil Inventory Rose Sharply as Demand Plunged on Crisis
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +21.04 mmb to 1286.82 mmb in the week ended March 27. Crude oil inventory soared +13.83 mmb (consensus: +4 mmb) to 469.19 mmb. Stockpile rose in ALL PADDs....
Dollar and Yen Back in Driving Seat as Risk Aversion is Coming Back
Dollar and Yen are trading as the stronger ones today as risk aversion seems to be coming back as another quarter starts. Commodity currencies are thew weakest ones as led by Canadian Dollar for now. Private job data from the US were not as bad as expected. But just...
Markets Remain in Quiet Mood, Dollar Rebound Lost Momentum
Markets are starting another with rather quiet mood. Some economic data might be not as bad as expected, but they're giving no lift to sentiments. Dollar attempted for a rebound overnight but there was apparently no follow through buying. Gold's dip was a positive sign for the greenback but...
Dollar Showing Signs of Rebound While Other Markets Consolidate
Markets continue to staying in tight range today as consolidations continue. There is still no end in sight regarding the coronavirus pandemic, with confirmed cases breaking 800k handle, and deaths above 39k. Movements in the major stock indexes are mild based on recent standard. WTI crude oil is back...
Chinese Government Expected to Accelerate Stimulus Despite Sharp Rebound in PMIs.
China’s official PMIs sharply rebounded in March. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52, from a record low of 35.7 in February. The non-manufacturing index rose to 52.3, from a record low of 29.6 in February. We suggest to interpret the data with caution as the qualitative nature of the survey...
Chinese Data Fail to Lift Sentiments, Markets Locked Down in Range
Markets are generally directionless in Asian session today. Strong rebound in China PMIs somewhat fails to lift sentiments. As the origin of the coronavirus pandemic, China could be the first country to come out of it. Yet, one month of data is insufficient to confirm recovery, as the world...
Dollar Recovers as Risk Sentiments Turn Soft, Still Early to Call Bottom
Global financial markets are generally quiet today. Stocks quickly pared back some of initial losses even though major indices are staying in red. US futures suggest that there is no clear direction for now. Dollar recovers generally and appears to be gathering momentum entering into US session. Yen, Swiss...
Asian Markets Lower as US Gives Up Easter Coronavirus Target, Yen Firmer
Asian markets open the week generally lower as there is no sign of even a slowdown in coronavirus pandemic. The US has also given up hope for returning to normal by Easter. Yen strengthens generally, followed by Dollar. Meanwhile, Sterling and Euro are giving up some gains. Movements in...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – US Dollar Remained Firm again Major Currencies
The reporting period was ahead of Fed's announcement of QE infinity. During the week, US dollar rallied against major currencies. Although the Fed announced to resumed QE, the purchase of US$700B of assets was small as a percentage of US GDP. Meanwhile, as other central banks have announced to...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold Price Resumed Rally while Crude Oil Fell to Almost Decade Low as Recession Risk Heightened
Bets on higher gold price increased as worsening coronavirus pandemic intensified concerns over global recession. On the other hand, traders increased bets on both higher and lower crude oil prices, but the latter prevailed. The front-month WTI crude contract slumped to lowest level since 2011 during the week. According...
As Recovery in Stocks Lose Momentum, Could Dollar Strike Back?
While the coronavirus pandemic continued to worsen globally, investor sentiment somewhat stabilized after governments and central banks rushed to push out tighter lockdown measures, fiscal stimulus and monetary easing. Dollar suffered massive selling on easing risk aversion, improving funding conditions, as well as Fed's QE infinity. Canadian Dollar ended...
Markets in Profit Taking Retreat, Yen and Dollar Recovering Grounds
European stocks and US futures turn softer today, apparently on pre-weekend profit taking again. FTSE is additionally pressured, possibly as Prime Minister Boris Johnson was tested positive for coronavirus. In the currency markets, Yen regains some ground together with Swiss Franc and Dollar. Commodity currencies are mildly lower. However,...
Global Central Banks Rushed to Stimulus Amidst Limited Monetary Policy Tools
As the coronavirus pandemic could very likely lead the world to recession, global central banks have rushed to inject liquidity through rate cuts another other unconventional measures. However, interest rates have already stayed at very low levels before the crisis. The room for further rate cuts is limited. Some...
US Coronavirus Infections and Stocks Surge, Dollar Weakens
Dollar is set to end the week as the week as the worst performing as corrections in the financial markets extend. Asian indices are generally higher following another day of strong close in the US overnight. Yen follows Dollar as the second weakest naturally as risk aversion eased. Meanwhile,...
Dollar Stays Soft after Shocking Jobless Claims, BoE Stands Pat
Dollar softens mildly again today as consolidation extends. The shock delivered by initial jobless claims is actually rather well expected. The greenback dips slightly after Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments, but that's it. BoE keep monetary policies unchanged at the scheduled meeting today, which also triggered little reactions. Yen...
Risk Rebound Fades as Focus Turns to Jobless Claims and BoE
Asian markets turn softer today as boost from US stimulus package fades very quickly. Focus will instead turn to BoE rate decision and US jobless claims. In particular, the latter would reveal how serious the initial impact of coronavirus outbreak in the US is. In the currency markets, commodity...