Stocks & Gold Crashed as Coronavirus Pandemic is Near, Traders See Fed Cut -50bps in march
The world got one big step closer to Wuhan coronavirus pandemic with explosion of number of cases outside China in the past last week. South Korea (3150 cases, 16 deaths), Italy (888 cases, 21 deaths) and Iran (388 cases, 34 deaths) are now the new epicenters, while Japan (235...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders to Bet USD Index Futures Lower as Fed might Cut Rate by -50 bps bps in 2 Weeks
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 25, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +849 contracts to 26 077. Speculative long positions dropped -638 contracts and short positions declined -1 487 contracts. Bets on both sides obviously shrank as the market pondered...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Long Bets in Gold Futures as Price Rallied to Highest since 2013
Falling for the first time in 3 weeks, NET LENGTH for gold futures declined -17 784 contracts to 335 865. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 25, speculative long positions plunged -19 010 contracts, while shorts decreased -1 226 contracts. Gold price...
RBA to Keep Powder Dry Next Week, Could Push Forward Rate Cut to April
RBA is expected to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% in March. However, disastrous coronavirus outbreak in China is expected to hurt Australia's economy, triggering the members to push forward further easing in as soon as April. Indeed, the market has priced in 60% chance of a rate...
No End in Sight For Global Coronavirus Outbreak and Stock Market Crash
There is no end in sight for the global stock market crash yet, not for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. South Korea (2337 cases, 14 deaths), Italy (605 cases, 17 deaths) and Iran (388 cases, 34 deaths) are the new epicenter and situations keep worsening. In the currency markets, selloff...
Stock Rout Continues, Fed Cut Odds Surged on Coronavirus Pandemic Fears
Risk aversion on fear of Wuhan coronavirus pandemic continues to be the main theme in the financial markets. DOW lost over -1000 pts overnight as it's suffering one of the worst weeks in history. 10-year and 30-year yield hit new record lows. Asian markets naturally follow with all major...
Euro Surges as Markets Reprice Coronavirus Impacts, Risk Aversion Continues
Global stock market crash on fear of Wuhan coronavirus pandemic continues today, while treasury yields are pressured too. Euro and Swiss Franc are currently the strongest ones. There are a couple of explanations, like safe haven flows out of US, due to free fall in stocks, as well as...
Losing Safe-Haven Status, Japanese Yen Weakens Despite Rising Global Uncertainty
Despite the recovery over the past few days, Japanese yen has still lost -1.6% against US dollar in the first 3 weeks of February. This phenomenon is puzzling as JPY, as traditional safe-haven currency, usually strengthens as global uncertainty and risk aversion intensify. There are a number of reasons...
Euro Gaining Upside Momentum While Coronavirus Fears Persist
Global coronavirus outbreak remain the main theme but markets are having kind of different reactions. US stocks extended this week's steep decline overnight, down selling pressure seemed to have eased a bit. Nikkei is leading Asian markets low but Chinese stocks are relatively resilient. In the currency markets, commodity...
Dollar Firmer after Hitting Support, While Risk Aversion Eases Mildly
Risk aversion continues today but selloff in the stock markets seem to be easing a bit, with major European indices off lows at the time of writing. Global coronavirus outbreak remains the main focus, with South Korea's cases surge again to 1261, with 12 deaths. Cases in Italy rose...
Aussie Tumbles as Risk Aversion Continues on Global Coronavirus Pandemic Fear
Risk aversion continues in Asian session today, following the worst 2-day percentage drop in DOW in two years. Nevertheless, panic is no spreading to other markets so far. Gold is staying in consolidation below 7-year high of 1689, currently hovering around 1645. In the currency markets, Australian is currently...
Markets in Digestion Mode, Awaiting Next Coronavirus Development
Global financial markets turned mixed today, digesting yesterday's steep selloff. Investors are holding their bets again, awaiting next development regarding global outbreak of China's Wuhan coronavirus. There is no sign of a sustainable recovery European stocks, but US futures point to higher open. In the currency markets, Sterling is...
Risk Aversion Dominates as China Coronavirus Spreads Quickly Globally
Risk aversion dominates the financial markets as global outbreak of China's Wuhan coronavirus worsens. DOW suffered the third-worst point drop in history overnight. 30-year yield hit new record low while 10-year yield also hit 3-year low. Though, Asian markets turned mixed, except that Nikkei is in deep red coming...
European Markets Crash on Coronavirus Outbreak in Italy, Risk Aversion Intensifies
Global markets are clearly in deep risk-off mode today. In particular, with the sudden explosion in coronavirus cases in Italy (150 infections and 4 deaths), European stocks are suffering their biggest plunge since 2016. Italian stocks leads the decline, down -4.5%. South Korea is even worse (833 cases and...
Sudden Explosion of Coronavirus Cases in Korea might Urge BOK to Cut Rate this Week
Explosion of coronavirus cases should further delay Korea’s economic recovery, leading Bank of Korea to push forward the rate cut to as soon as this week. Last month, policymakers shifted the tone to neutral from dovish. However, the January meeting was held before the spread of China’s coronavirus to...
Risk Aversion Deepens as China Coronavirus Spreads Quickly to other Countries
Risk aversion deepens in global financial markets today as China's Wuhan coronavirus is clearly spreading to other countries. Gold surges to seven-year high on safe haven flow while Asian stocks are generally pressured. The currency markets are relatively quiet though as major pairs and crosses settle back into Friday's...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Continued to Bet Lower EUR on Disappointing Economic Data
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 18, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +4 742 contracts to 24 228. Speculative long positions dropped -1 314 contracts and short positions dropped -6 056 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Prices Higher
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 18. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +14 995 contracts to 411 764 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -5 903 contracts while shorts declined -20 898 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Safe Haven Flows into Gold and Treasuries on China Coronavirus Contagion
Outbreak of China's Wuhan coronavirus continued to be a big market mover last week. According to China's own numbers, new cases in the country seemed to have slowed even though new daily deaths maintained at around 100 level. What's worrying is that contagion to other countries, in particular Asia,...
European Majors Recover after UK and Eurozone PMIs
European majors recover today following better than expected PMI data from UK and Eurozone. Concerns of China's coronavirus hasn't materialized into business confidence data yet. On the other hand, commodity currencies are generally lower, followed by Dollar. For the week, while New Zealand and Australian Dollars are among the...