Euro to End Firm as ECB Seen Done with Easing
European majors remain generally firm today. In particular, Euro is supported by the view that ECB has done with policy easing after yesterday's stimulus package. Such view is supported by rare open criticism on the measures by ECB officials. Commodity currencies are generally softer together with Dollar. Over the...
European Majors Strong after Euro Survived ECB Stimulus
European majors are generally stronger today, after Euro survived yesterday's ECB monetary easing. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar is broadly pressured following decline in oil prices. New Zealand Dollar is also weak after poor manufacturing data. Dollar is soft despite more positive news regarding US-China trade negotiations. Over the week, Sterling...
ECB Cuts Deposit Rate to Historical Low of -0.5%, Resumes QE
ECB has announced a new package of stimulus measure as inflation weakens. At the same time, the central bank revised lower both GDP growth and inflation outlooks for coming years. EURUSD initially plunged to as low as 1.0927 before a strong rebound.
1. Rate Cut: Deposit rate is reduced by...
Euro Sold Off on ECB Easing With QE and Deposit Rate Cut
Euro drops broadly after ECB finally delivers and announced a package of stimulus. The cut in deposit rate and size of QE are somewhat smaller than expected. But the new economic projections remain decidedly dovish despite the easing package. At this point, Sterling is following closely as the second...
Sentiments Lifted by US-China Goodwill Gestures, ECB Stimulus Awaited
Market sentiments were given another strong lift after both US and China offered gestures of good will ahead of next month's trade meeting. Yen extended this week's pullback and remains generally soft in Asian session today. Swiss Franc follows as the second weakest naturally. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are generally...
Both Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventory Fell Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -3.14 mmb to 1295.96 mmb in the week ended September 6. Crude oil inventory declined -6.91 mmb to 416.07 mmb (consensus: -2.69 mmb). Inventories decreased in ALL 5...
China Watch – Tariff Exemption Further Evidenced Weakness in Underlying Economy
China announced that 16 types of US exports will be exempted from tariff. While this may be a gesture ahead of the October trade negotiation, we view this as a sign of further weakness in china’s economic outlook. Trade data surprised to the downside in August with both exports...
Euro Lower as Traders Prepare for ECB, Dollar Shrugs Trump’s Tweets
Euro weakens broadly today, in relatively quiet markets, as traders are probably adjusting their positions ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate decision. A new package of stimulus is widely expected. Yet, opinions on the exact composition of the package is divided. Meanwhile, steady market sentiments is keeping Yen and Swiss...
Sentiments Lifted as China Exempt Some Tariffs on US, Removes QFII Quota
Market sentiments are generally lifted in Asia, by China's announcement to exempt some US imports from tariffs, ahead of next month's meeting. Also, while symbolic, investors also cheer China's move to remove quota for foreign institutional investors on the capital market. Yen and Swiss Franc are under selling pressure...
Sterling Lifted Mildly by Job Data, Markets Steady Overall
The financial markets are generally steady today, with stock and bond markets bounded in tight range. Most major currency pairs and crosses are also staying inside yesterday's range. Swiss Franc is currently the firmer one, followed by Sterling is mildly firmer on solid employment data, but upside is capped....
Yen Lower as Yields Recover, Aussie Falls on Business Confidence
Yen weakens broadly today following recovery in major treasury yields, as a sign of stabilization in sentiments. Most notably, German 10-year yield closed above -0.6% at -0.585, while US 10-year yield closed above 1.6% at 1.622. Australian Dollar is currently the second weakest, after poor business condition and confidence...
ECB Preview – Awaiting New Easing Package
We expect ECB to deliver a easing package at this week’s meeting. Economic developments since the last meeting have remained steady. However, growth is limited and risk is skewed to the downside. The latest economic projections will show downgrades in both GDP growth and inflation outlook.
We expect the easing...
Sterling Extends Rally as GDP Data Suggests Receding Recession Risks
Sterling rises broadly today as recession risk recede after better than expected GDP data. While it's unsure whether growth could sustain, the Pound cheers the improved outlook anyway. At this point, Australian Dollar is second strongest, followed by New Zealand Dollar. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the...
Sterling Mildly Lower in Quiet Trading, More Brexit Drama Ahead
Markets are generally quiet in a typical Monday. Sterling is trading generally lower. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's push for general election ahead of Brexit deadline will likely be voted down today. But it's reported that he's planning to block the parliament's attempts at enforcing Brexit extension. At this point,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Crude Oil Price Continued to Fall
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 3, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -7 493 contracts to 384 157 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -4 525 contracts and shorts gained +2 968 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Greenback Lacks Direction Ahead of FOMC Meeting
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 3, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +1 839 contracts to 31 336. Speculative long positions rose +6 308 contracts and short positions also added +4 469 contracts. Greenback becomes directionless ahead of the FOMC...
Risk Markets Surged on Receding Political and Trade Uncertainties
Risk aversion eased notably further last week as some of the imminent risks receded. New Italian government was sworn in as 5-Star Movement and bitter rival Democratic Party agreement to form a coalition. UK lawmakers passed a bill to force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to delay Brexit if no...
Dollar Lower on NFP Miss, Supported by Wage Growth
Dollar drops mildly in early US session after weaker than expected employment data. Yet, downside is limited as support by stronger than expected wage growth. At the time of writing, commodity currencies are the strongest one for today with help from China's RRR cut. Canadian Dollar is additionally supported...
Markets Remains Risk On as Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
The financial markets remain in risk on mode today. Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar continue to feel tremendous selling pressure. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are generally the strongest. Euro and Sterling are mixed for now as it's still unsure where Brexit uncertainty is heading to. The common currency's rally attempt...
US Oil Inventory Fell Further, In Contrast with API’s Forecast
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -4.95 mmb to 1299.1 mmb in the week ended August 30. Crude oil inventory declined -4.77 mmb to 422.98 mmb (consensus: -2.49 mmb). Inventories decreased in ALL 5...