CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Increased Short Bets on World Currencies (Except For USD)
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 30, NET LENGTH in USD Index increased +194 contracts to 28 949. Both speculative long and short positions gained during the week. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions.
Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT...
Sterling Surged as UK Politicians Could Finally Drop Differences to Deliver Brexit
Sterling was the star winner last week as boosted by renewed hope of a Brexit deal between the government and opposition. Poor results for both Conservatives and Labours are piling pressure on both parties to end the Brexit standoff and drama as soon as possible. In short, Conservatives lost...
Dollar Inaction to Strong NFP, Wage Growth Offsets Strong Job Number
Even though US non-farm payroll report came in much stronger than expected. There is no apparent buying in Dollar as initial reactions. Weaker than expected wage growth seems to be a factor that's capping the greenback's strength. On the other hand, stocks are apparently boosted with DOW futures trading...
Dollar Bulls in Hesitation as Markets Await US Non-Farm Payrolls
Dollar turns mixed in Asian session today as markets turn their focus to non-farm payroll reports from US. The greenback has indeed been regaining grounds this gradually this week. In particular, it's helped by Fed Chair Jerome Powell who talked down the need of rate cut. But buyers are...
BOE Upgraded GDP Growth Outlook, Warned of Faster- than- Expected Rate Hike Path
BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound. As expected, the central bank delivered a slightly more hawkish tone as Brexit was delayed to October 31, temporarily lowering the risk of no-deal Brexit. The members are more upbeat...
BoE Triggers Little Reactions, Forex Markets Staying in Slow Motions
The forex markets are in slow motion today. Major pairs and crosses are bounded inside yesterday's range, with no follow through movement yet. BoE Super Thursday is a high profile event, but triggers no sustainable price actions yet. It's rather hard to react to BoE's new economic projections. Growth...
Dollar Rebounds after Fed Powell Talked Down Rate Cut, Focus Turns to BoE
The forex markets are generally quiet in Asian session today. Major pairs and crosses are bounded inside yesterday's range. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are mildly firmer while Yen and Canadian are the weakest. Dollar rebound overnight after Fed Chair Jerome Powell talked down the chance of a rate...
Fed Judges Weak Inflation as Transitory, Dismissing Rate Cut Chance
FOMC members decided unanimously to keep the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50%. Meanwhile, the IOER was lowered to 2.35% from 2.4%. The slight change in the accompanying statement showed a more upbeat assessment on the economic developments, despite softening inflation. It was Chair Jerome...
US Crude Oil Inventory Jumped Much More Than Expected, Paring Price Rally on Venezuelan Turmoil
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +12.73 mmb to 1257.33 mmb in the week ended April 26. Crude oil inventory soared +9.93 mmb to 470.57 mmb (consensus: +1.49 mmb). Inventories rose in 3 out...
Dollar Ignores Strong ADP, Drops on Weak ISM, Looks to Fed for Rescue
Economic data released from the US are mixed today. ADP report shows much stronger than expected growth in private sector jobs. However, ISM manufacturing points to deep cool down in the manufacturing sector, with deteriorating new orders, prices and employment. Dollar chooses to react to the negative one and...
Dollar Generally Lower as Markets Await Fed Powell’s Comments on Inflation and Interest Rates
Dollar trades broadly lower in thin holiday market as trades await FOMC rate decision. There is no expectation of a change in interest rate nor Fed's patient stance. But Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments on inflation could make or break recent rally in the greenback. For now, Dollar it's...
Euro Surges as Data Paint Improved Growth and Inflation Outlook
Euro surges broadly today as boosted a series of better than expected economic data. GDP beat market expectations and argue that the slowdown wasn't as worse as expected. In particular, strength was also seen in problematic countries like Italy and Spain. Unemployment rate dropped to lowest in more than...
China PMI Misses Raise Doubt on Recovery, Australian Dollar Turns Soft
S&P 500 and NASDAQ made record highs overnight but sentiments turned around in Asia. Weaker than expected China PMIs raised doubt on the sustainability of the post lunar new year recovery. There is even question on whether slowdown has bottomed. Nevertheless, Chinese stocks remain resilient so far, with Shanghai...
BOE Preview: Looking Through Strong First Quarter, with Focus on Softer Inflation and Prolonged Brexit Uncertainty
Some positive notes are seen in the first quarter, both domestically and globally. Yet, these are neither sufficient not strong enough to alter BOE’s stance in May, the first monetary policy meeting since Brexit was offered an extension until October 31. The central bank is certain to leave its...
Dollar Mildly Higher after Strong Personal Spending, Upside Capped by Cooling Core Inflation
Dollar strengthens mildly in early US session as supported by strong personal spending growth in March. Though, upside is capped by steadily cooling core inflation. For now, today's set of data is not decisive enough to trigger a breakout in the greenback yet. Dollar would likely engage in more...
Markets Steady Ahead of Busy Week With Trade Talks, Fed, BoE, and Heavy Weight Data
The forex markets are rather quiet in Asia, as Japan starts an ultra-long 10-day holiday ahead of Imperial succession. New Zealand and Australian Dollar extends the corrective recovery started late last week, ignoring initial weakness in Chinese stocks. On the other hand, Yen is generally lower, followed by Canadian....
FOMC Preview -Fed to Reiterate Patience Rhetoric Despite Strong First Quarter Growth, Focus on Soft Inflation
Despite the pleasant surprise in the first quarter GDP growth, the Fed would still leave its policy rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting. The Fed funds rate target is expected to stay at 2.25-2.50%. Its forward guidance would stay unchanged, calling for patience in future monetary policy move. At...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Long Positions Rallied as Crude Oil Price Soared to Half-Year Year before Pullback
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 23, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +32 101 contracts to 557 359 for the week. Speculative long positions roas +28 560 contracts while shorts dropped -3 541. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Turned Risk- off in Both Euro and British Pound
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 23, NET LENGTH in USD Index decreased -183 contracts to 28 755. Both speculative long and short positions gained during the week. Yet, the latter slightly pervailed. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT...
Worsening Inflation, Dovish Central Banks and Falling Treasury Yields
Yen and Dollar were the biggest winners last week on worsening inflation outlook, dovish central banks and falling treasury yields. Australian Dollar was the weakest one as CPI just rose 1.3% yoy in Q1 versus expectation of 1.5% yoy. The added heavy weight to the case of RBA rate...