Gold Rarely Declines with Real Yield. This Time Due to USD Strength
Gold price got dumped, falling to the lowest level in over 2 months. Losing over -7% against USD in June, the selloff this time has been driven by strong US dollar, rather than higher yields. The greenback is darling of the market recently, thanks to strong economic data, a...
Dollar Consolidating Gains as Focus Turns to ADP Employment First
Dollar and Yen are consolidating this week's gains in Asian session today. There is no clear sign of topping in both Dollar and Yen. Yet, there is also no follow through buying to push Dollar through main near term resistance against other major currencies. Fed looks on track to...
Dollar and Yen Surge, Resuming Near Term Rally
Dollar rises sharply today and takes the Japanese Yen higher too. There is no clear stimulus for the moves as other markets are mixed. The technical development suggests that this week's retreat has completed already. New Zealand and Australian Dollar are currently the worst performing. But Euro and Sterling...
Sterling Turning Lower against Dollar and Yen
Dollar and Yen are currently the mildly strong ones this week so far. US stocks ended mixed as S&P 500 and NASDAQ made new record highs, but DOW refused to follow and closed lower. Asian markets are also generally in red. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are notably weaker...
Dollar Buying Picking Up Momentum, Swiss Franc Softens
Dollar is pick up some upside momentum as markets enter into US session. Overall trading is rather subdued though. Economic calendar is near empty today while central bankers' comments are largely ignored. Sterling is currently a firmer one together with the greenback. Swiss Franc is the worst performing one,...
Japanese Yen Prone to be Worst Performer against US Dollar in 1H21
Japanese yen is the worst performing major currency against US dollar in 1H21. A more hawkish Fed and actual inflation (divergent monetary policy), widening yield differential and inflation expectations are the key drivers to yen’s depreciation. After price correction, persistence of these drivers could further strengthen USDJPY, though to...
Yen Mildly Higher in Quiet Asia, Heavy Weight Data in the Week
Yen trades mildly higher in quiet Asia today, while trading is also subdued in other markets. Sterling is trying to recover some of last week's losses, but momentum is relatively limited. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and Euro are turning softer, partly due to retreat in crosses against...
Yen and Dollar Drops on Return on Risk Appetite, Sterling Looking Technically Vulnerable
Yen and Dollar ended the week as the worst performing ones, as US stock markets came back with strong rally. Risk-on sentiments pushed commodity currencies broadly higher. Yet, Yen crosses are also held below recent highs despite the rebounds. Dollar's pull back was also relatively weak. Some more time...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Major Currencies Weakened against USD on Hawkish Fed
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 22, NET SHORT of USD index futures decreased -1 793 contracts. Speculative long positions slipped -1 114 contracts while shorts were down -2 907 contracts. The greenback gained ground after the Fed turned more hawkish...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold’s Net Length Slumped on USD Strength
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 22 NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +2 205 contracts to 526 161 for the week. Speculative long position increased +5 615 contracts, while shorts added +3 410 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Weakens as PCE Inflation Surged by Missed Expectations
Dollar weakens in early US session, in particular against Yen. PCE inflation showed notable acceleration in May but fell short of expectations slightly. Nevertheless, Sterling is the worst performing ones for today, extending post BoE selloff. The Pound is also pressured by uncertainties over resurgence of coronavirus infections. Commodity...
Stocks Surge on Infrastructure Deal, Dollar and Yen Soften
Dollar and Yen are trading slightly softer in Asian session today, as markets are back on full risk-on mode. S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new record after US President Joe Biden struck an infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators. Asian stocks also trail higher. Commodity currencies rise...
Sterling Weakens as BoE Gives No Hawkish Surprise, Dollar Softer on Job and Durables
Sterling drops notably today after BoE delivered no hawkish surprise. While it sounded upbeat on the outlook, the MPC, except chief economist Andy Haldane, would prefer to wait until August to take any policy actions. Dollar is also soft after weaker than expected jobless claims and durable goods orders....
Fed Officials Shrugged by Markets, Focus Turns to BoE and US Data
The chorus of Fedspeaks overnight provided little inspirations to the markets. Some policy makers expected tapering in the coming months, followed by rate hike next year. Some remained more cautious on the outlook. That's what we already know from the Fed's dot plot already. Major US indexes closed mixed...
Sharp Fall in US Inventory Gives Further Boost to Crude Oil Price
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -5.81 mmb to 1282.86 mmb in the week ended June 18. Crude oil inventory slumped -7.61 mmb (consensus: -3.94 mmb) to 459.06 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Yen Selloff Continues With Dollar, Commodity Currencies Strong
The forex markets continue to stay in sort of risk-on mode today, with weakness in Dollar and Yen, and strength in commodity currencies as led by New Zealand Dollar. Though, traders in other markets are not too committed yet. European indexes are just mixed while US futures point to...
China to Continue Curbing Excess Strength in Renminbi
Losing -1.8% month-to-date, CNY has erased much of the gain made against USD since the beginning of the year. While the broadly based USD rally after the June FOMC meeting is the major driver, PBOC’s intervention has also prevented the renminbi from having meaningful gains. In April and May,...
Yen Extends Decline on Risk-On Markets, Completed Corrective Rebound
Yen dropped notably overnight and stays pressured in Asian session with markets back in risk-on mode. NASDAQ closed at new record high while DOW and S&P 500 also gained. Major Asian indexes follow with solid gains in Hong Kong. Dollar also extended this week's retreat but losses are so...
Dollar Awaits Fed Powell, Sterling Bulls Not Giving Up
Trading in the forex markets is rather subdued today, as in other financial markets. Dollar continues to consolidate recent rise while European stocks and US futures are treading water. Focus turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony for fresh inspirations. . Sterling bulls hesitated in early part of European...
BOE Preview: Not Yet Time for Tapering as Virus Resurgence Raises Economic Uncertainty
The BOE would maintain an upbeat tone at this week's meeting. However, the uncertainty, in particular a third wave of the pandemic which has caused a delay in restriction easing, suggests that it would be too early to hint about tapering of monetary policy or pushing forward the first...