US CPI slowed to 8.3% yoy, core CPI rose to 6.3% yoy

    US CPI rose 0.1% mom in August, after being flat in July, above expectation of -0.1% mom decline. Core CPI rose 0.6% mom, larger than prior month’s 0.3% mom, and higher than expectation of 0.3% mom. Energy declined -5.0% mom while food index rose 0.8% mom.

    For the 12 months ending August, CPI slowed from 8.5% yoy to 8.3% yoy, above expectation of 8.1% yoy. CPI core accelerated from 5.9% yoy to 6.3% yoy, above expectation of 6.0% yoy. Energy rose 23.8% yoy, slowed from 32.9% yoy. Food rose 11.4% yoy, largest 12-month increase since May 1979.

    Full release here.

    Germany ZEW dropped to -61.9, outlook worsened significantly

      Germany ZEW Economist Sentiment dropped further from -55.3 to -61.9 in September, worse than expectation of -60. Current Situation index dropped from -47.6 to -60.5, below expectation of -50.5.

      Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from -54.9 to -60.7, below expectation of -58.3. Current Situation index dropped -16.9 pts to -58.9.

      “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment decreased again in September. Together with the more negative assessment of the current situation, the outlook for the next six months has deteriorated further. The prospect of energy shortages in winter has made expectations even more negative for large parts of the German industry. In addition, growth in China is assessed less favourably. The latest statistical figures already show a decline in incoming orders, production, and exports,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on current expectations.

      Full release here.

      UK payrolled employment rose 71k in Aug, unemployment rate down to 3.6% in Jul

        UK payrolled employment rose 71k or 0.2% mom in August. Comparing with the same month a year ago, payrolled employees rose 803k to 2.8% yoy. Monthly pay rose 6.5% yoy. Claimant count rose 6.3k, versus expectation of -9.2k decline.

        Unemployment rate dropped from 3.8% to 3.6% in the three months to July. Employment rate was estimated at 75.4% while economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.7%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.5% 3moy, versus expectation of 5.2%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 5.2% 3moy, versus expectation of 5.0% 3moy.

        Full release here.

        US 10-year yield extending rally ahead of CPI

          US consumer inflation data will catch all attention today. Headline CPI is expected to decline -0.1% mom in August, with annual rate slowed from 8.5% yoy to 8.1% yoy. On the other hand, core CPI is expected rise 0.3% mom, with annual rate accelerated from 5.9% yoy to 6.0% yoy.

          Today’s data is unlikely to alter Fed’s decision on on September 21, where markets are pricing in 88% chance of another 75bps hike. While inflation is starting to slow, the decline in energy prices could free up some money for consumer to spend, which supports the economy. Fed’s tightening will continue and there is a consensus that interest rate would reach 4% level by early next year.

          Regarding market reaction to the data, some attention will be on 10-year yield, which rose 0.041 to 3.362 overnight. Current rise form 2.525 is expected to continue as long as 3.176 support holds, to retest 3.483 high. Such development should give Yen crosses a lift in general. But the next big move would depend more on whether 3.483 could be taken out decisively, at a later stage.

          Australia NAB business confidence rose to 10, conditions rose to 20

            Australia NAB business confidence improved from 8 to 10 in August. Business conditions rose from 19 to 20. Trading conditions rose from 26 to 30. Profitability conditions dropped from 18 to 16. Employment conditions also dropped from 18 to 16.

            “The recent strength in business conditions carried into August,” said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. “Official data for retail sales in July confirmed spending remained robust, as suggested by the previous survey, and today’s release shows little sign that August was much different. Conditions are strong across most industries other than construction, where profitability remains a challenge.”

            “Confidence rose again in August, as did other forward indicators in the survey,” said Oster. “Confidence took a hit around June as interest rates first began to rise but it seems that firms’ initial concerns about the impact have eased and a more positive outlook is prevailing, at least for the time being.”

            Full release here.

            NIESR: UK GDP to contract -0.1% in Q3, remains in recession

              NIESR projects UK GDP to contract -0.1% in Q3, with growth slowing as inflation maintains its drag on consumer demand and confidence.

              “GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in July following the large fall of 0.6 per cent in June. This was stronger than we had expected and was driven by a rise in services, particularly consumer-facing services, with production and construction continuing to fall. That said, GDP in the three months to July was flat relative to the previous three months and we think the UK economy remains in recession.” Stephen Millard Deputy Director for Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting, NIESR.

              Full release here.

              UK GDP grew 0.2% mom in July, services up but production and construction down

                UK GDP grew 0.2% mom in July, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Services grew 0.4% mom. Production dropped -0.3% mom. Construction also contracted -0.8% mom. For the three months to July, GDP was flat compared with the previous three months.

                Also released, industrial production came in at -0.3% mom, 1.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.4% mom, 2.0% yoy. Manufacturing production was at 0.1% mom, 1.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.6% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed from GBP -22.8B to GBP -19.4B, versus expectation of GBP -23.2B.

                ECB Elderson: Very important that inflation expectations not become unanchored

                  ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson told Dutch television, “it’s very important that the expectations that the people have on how the inflation will develop in the medium to long term will not become unanchored.”

                  “It is vital that people and companies or actors in the economy in general maintain their trust that we as the ECB will reach our of target of 2 per cent inflation,” Elderson said.

                  Bundesbank Nagel: Further clear steps must follow if inflation stays the same

                    Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a radio interview on Sunday that last week’s 75bps hike was a “clear sign and if the inflation picture stays the same, further clear steps must follow.”

                    He added that inflation may peak at more than 10% in December. “In the course of 2023, the inflation picture is likely to weaken somewhat,” he said. Still, the rate “is likely to be at a far-too-high level of over 6%.”

                    While there “currently are some indications that the economy could stagnate or even contract in the second half of 2022 and that this trend could continue into next year, any recession may be shallow,” Nagel added.

                    “In the end, stable prices are much more important for medium-term, long-term growth, for a good outlook for the euro area,” he said. “We may need to overcome a dry spell, but for now at least it looks like this dry spell and the decline in economic output will not be severe.”

                    Canada employment dropped -39.7k in Aug, unemployment rate jumped to 5.4%

                      Canada employment dropped -39.7k in August, much worse than expectation of 15.0k growth. Unemployment rate jumped from 4.9% to 5.4%, above expectation of 5.0%. That’s the first rise in unemployment rate in seven months. Participation rate ticked up 0.1% to 64.8%. Average hourly wages of employees rose 5.4% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      ECB Knot: we only have one problem on our plate – inflation

                        ECB governing council member Klaas Knot told Dutch radio BNR today, “We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, so that means we only have one problem on our plate: inflation. And that will mean that we will have to slow economic growth at least a bit to reduce inflation”.

                        Another Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said , “Inflation remains unacceptably high. The priority now is to vigorously continue the normalization of monetary policy.” While not commenting on the terminal rate of the current cycle, he said that ECB was still “quite far” from neutral rate.

                        Francois Villeroy de Galhau said, the central bank must be “orderly and determined” with rate hike. He expects inflation to stay high next year and come back to 2% target by 2024.

                        BoJ Kuroda: We will watch exchange rate moves carefully

                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “When the yen is moving 2 to 3 yen per day, that’s a rapid move. We will watch exchange rate moves carefully.” The comment came after Kuroda met Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, where currency matters were discussed.

                          Separately, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the the government would not rule out any options on foreign exchange moves.

                          Fed Evans: We need to be increasing interest rates up to a substantially higher level

                            Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, “I think that we’ve got a good plan in place. We could very well do 75 in September. My mind is not made up. I do know that we need to be increasing interest rates up to a substantially higher level than where they are now.”

                            “I think the precise path is less important than just constantly telling people, we’re on this path, this is what we’re going to do, inflation is job one, we’re going to handle this,” Evans said.

                            “Unemployment is 3.7% right now. I’m optimistic that we’re going to be able to navigate this and keep unemployment to about 4.5% by the time we’re done,” he said. “That would still be a pretty good outcome, although it will be costly for some.”

                            “I would prefer to find an appropriate spot to pause and monitor how things are going, rather than go much higher — potentially overshoot,” he said. “I wouldn’t say that I’m advocating sort of pausing at 3.5%, because I think 4 is more likely.”

                            BoC Rogers: We need a period of lower growth to balance things out

                              BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said yesterday, “our primary focus will be to judge how monetary policy is working to slow demand, how fast supply challenges are resolved, and most importantly, how both inflation and inflation expectations respond.”

                              “Because we are in a period of excess demand, we need a period of lower growth to balance things out and bring demand back in line with supply,” Rogers said.

                              “By front-loading interest rates now, we’re trying to avoid the need for even higher rates down the road and a more pronounced slowing of the economy,” she said.

                              SNB Jordan: At the moment, franc appreciation tends to help rather than hurt

                                SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said yesterday, “you cannot say we have passed the zenith and now it is certainly heading lower. If it comes to a power shortage situation, to a complete gas shortage in Europe, then it cannot be excluded that inflation pressure rises again. You have to be very cautious.”

                                Jordan declined to comment on currency interventions. But he added, “at the moment it is rather so that given the inflationary pressure an appreciation of the franc tends to help rather than hurt.”

                                Fed Powell: We need to act now, strongly as we have be doing

                                  Fed chair Jerome Powell said in a conference, “We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing (on inflation). My colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and will keep at it.”

                                  “Demand is very, very strong still in the labor market. We’re still printing new payroll job numbers at a high level, wages are running at elevated levels,” Powell said. “By our policy interventions, what we hope to achieve is a period of growth below trend, which will cause the labor market to get back into better balance, and that will bring wages back down to levels that are more consistent with 2 per cent inflation.”

                                  “It is very important that inflation expectations remain anchored,” Powell said. “The longer that inflation remains well above target the greater the concern that the public will start to just naturally incorporate higher inflation into its economic decision making,. Our job is to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

                                  ECB press conference live stream

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                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 222k, vs exp. 243k

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -6k to 222k in the week ending September 3, lower than expectation of 243k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -7.5k to 233k.

                                      Continuing claims rose 36k to 1473k in the week ending August 27. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 10.75k to 1439k.

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB hikes 75bps, more hikes over the next several meetings

                                        ECB raises the three key interest rates by 75bps today. The main refinancing , marginal lending facility and deposit facility rates are 1.25%, 1.50% and 0.75% respectively. The Governing Council also expects to raise interest rates further over the “next several meetings”. Decisions will continue to be “data-dependent” and follow a “meeting-by-meeting approach”.

                                        ECB staff projections now show inflation averaging 8.1% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023, and then 2.3% in 2024. Recent data point to a “substantial slowdown” in growth, with the economy expected to “stagnate later in the year and in Q1 of 2023. Staff now projects the economy to grow by 3.1% in 2022, 0.9% in 2023, and then 1.9% in 2024.

                                        Full statement here.

                                        ECB to hike 75bps? A Look at EUR/CHF

                                          ECB is expected to deliver another rate hike today. A 75bps is not fully priced in, but that’s the more likely outcome after recent chorus of hawkish rhetorics. The markets would be eager to know more about two things going forward, the terminal rate of the current tightening cycle, and the pace to get there. But it’s unlikely for President Christine Lagarde to reveal much on the two questions. Nevertheless, Lagarde might indicate a discussion on ending the reinvestment phase of the APP, which could be a hawkish sign.

                                          Here are some previews on ECB:

                                          Regarding market reactions, the next move in EUR/CHF is worth some attention. On the bearish side, break of 0.9696 minor support will signal completion of the rebound from 0.9550, and the readiness for down trend resumption through this low. In case of another rebound, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0512 to 0.9550 at 0.9917 is needed to confirm a bullish turn. Otherwise, Euro’s rally elsewhere could be somewhat capped.