US PMIs rose to record highs, economy firing on all cylinders

    US PMI Manufacturing rose to 60.6 in April, up from 59.1. PMI Services rose to 63.1, up from 60.4. PMI Composite Rose to 62.2, up from 59.7. All three indices were at their record highs.

    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

    “The US economy is enjoying a strong start to the second quarter, firing on all cylinders as loosening virus restrictions, an impressive vaccine roll-out, a brighter outlook and stimulus measures all helped boost demand.

    “The upturn is broad-based: the service sector is growing at the fastest rate recorded in almost 12 years of survey history, and manufacturers reported one of the strongest expansions seen over the past seven years. The latter was all the more impressive, as factories continued to be throttled by unprecedented supply chain delays, a consequence of which was a further steep rise in prices.

    “The worsening supply situation is a concern for the outlook, especially in relation to prices. Supply needs to improve to come into line with demand. But with record supply chain delays driving a rise in backlogs of uncompleted work of a magnitude not surpassed for over seven years, firms appear to be struggling to boost operating capacity in the near-term.”

    Full release here.

    UK PMI composite rose to 60, second strongest spell in 23 years of records

      UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 60.7 in April, up from 58.9, above expectation of 59.0. That’s the highest level in more than 26 years. PMI Services rose to 60.1, up from 56.3, above expectation of 59.0, a 80-month high. PMI Composite rose to 60.0, up from 56.4, an 89-month high since November 2013.

      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Companies are reporting a surge in demand for both goods and services as the economy opens up from lockdowns and the encouraging vaccine roll-out adds to a brighter outlook. In more than 23 years of PMI history, we have only seen one spell of faster growth than this, recorded between August and November 2013”.

      Full release here.

      Eurozone PMI manufacturing rose to 63.3, services rose to 50.3, encouraging strength in tightened restrictions

        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose to 63.3 in April, up from 62.5, above expectation of 62.0. That’s also a the highest level since record began in June 1997. PMI Services rose to 50.3, up from 49.6, above expectation of 49.1, an 8-month high. PMI Composite rose to 53.7, up from 53.2, a 9-month high.

        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “In a month during which virus containment measures were tightened in the face of further waves of infections, the eurozone economy showed encouraging strength. Although the service sector continued to be hard hit by lockdown measures, it has returned to growth as companies adjust to life with the virus and prepare for better times ahead. The manufacturing sector is meanwhile booming. Pent-up spending, restocking, investment in new machinery and growing optimism about the outlook have all helped fuel a further record surge in both output and new orders.”

        Full release here.

        Germany PMI composite dropped to 56.0, pandemic third wave stifled progress

          Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 66.4 in April, down from 66.6, above expectation of 65.9. PMI Services dropped to 50.1, down from 51.5, below expectation of 50.8. PMI Composite dropped to 56.0, down from 57.3.

          Phil Smith, Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “The third wave of the pandemic has stifled progress in Germany’s service sector, with April ‘s flash PMI data showing activity close to stalling following the return to growth at the end of the first quarter. The country’s manufacturing sector remains on a strong footing, though even here the data show growth being held back by supply problems.

          Full release here.

          France PMI composite rose to 51.7, finally managed to achieve growth

            France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 59.2 in April, down form 59.3, above expectation of 59.0. PMI Services rose to 50.4, up from 48.2, above expectation of 44.0, hitting a 8-month high. PMI Composite rose to 51.7, up from 50.0, a 9-month high.

            Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said: “Latest PMI data pointed to the first increase in private sector activity since the end of the initial COVID-19 rebound last summer. The result was a continuation of the improved trend seen in recent months, but previously growth had remained elusive due to an ongoing decline in the service sector. However, with an expansion in services activity and another strong rise in manufacturing production during April, the French private sector finally managed to achieve growth.”

            Full release here.

            UK retail sales rose 5.4% mom in Mar, ex-fuel sales up 4.9% mom

              UK retail sales rose 5.4% mom in March, well above expectation of 1.50%. Ex-fuel sales rose 4.9% mom, above expectation of 1.3% mom. Over the year, headline sales rose 7.2% yoy, ex-fuel sales rose 7.9% yoy. The strongest growth was in clothing stores, other non-food stores and automotive fuel retailers of 17.5%, 13.4% and 11.1% respectively.

              Full release here.

              Bitcoin breaches 50k as correction extends, targeting 41591 fib support

                Bitcoin’s fall from 64828 accelerates lower today and breaches 50k handle. As noted in a previous post, a 5-wave terminal triangle has completed at the record high, which should mark a medium term top. We’re seeing the fall from there as correction to whole up trend from up trend from 4000 (Mar 2020).

                Further decline is now expected as long as 57093 resistance holds. The correction should extend to 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591, which is close to the top of prior range of 20283/41964. Some support could be seen there to set the medium term range.

                Japan CPI core rose to -0.1% yoy in Mar, negative for the 8th straight months

                  Japan CPI core (all-item less fresh food) improved to -0.1% yoy in March, up from -0.4% yoy, above expectation of -0.2% yoy. But that’s still the eight straight months of negative reading. Further fall in core inflation is expected due to drag from mobile phone fee cuts. All-item CPI rose to -0.2% yoy, up from -0.4% yoy. CPI core-core (all-item less fresh food and energy) also ticked up to 0.3% yoy from 0.2% yoy.

                  Separately, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reiterated to the parliament, “when Japan’s inflation approaches our target, we will deliberate an exit strategy at our policy-setting meeting including details such as the timing and means for selling ETFs.” But for now, inflation remains distant from target.

                  Japan PMI manufacturing rose to 53.3, highest since Apr 2018

                    Japan PMI Manufacturing rose to 53.3 in April up from 52.7, above expectation of 53.1. That’s the strongest reading since April 2018. PMI Services was unchanged at 48.3. PMI Composite ticked up from 49.9 to 50.2, returned to expansion for the first time since January 2020.

                    Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “While some Japanese private sector businesses noted that a resurgence in COVID-19 cases could dampen prospects in the second quarter of the year, firms remained optimistic that overall business activity would improve in the coming 12 months. That said, there is concern the impact of the pandemic will be prolonged further.”

                    Full release here.

                    Australia PMI composite rose to record 58.8 in Apr, strong start to Q2

                      Australia PMI Manufacturing rose to 59.6 in April, up from 56.8. PMI Services rose to 58.6, up from 55.5. PMI Composite rose to 58.8, up from 55.5. All three indexes were at record highs.

                      Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, said: “Australia’s private sector started the second quarter on a strong footing, with growth of output accelerating for the second time in a row to the steepest on record as sales were boosted by improved market confidence due to a reduction in the negative impact of COVID-19.

                      “The stronger growth momentum filtered through to the labour market… The overall degree of business sentiment improved from March’s seven-month low and was above its average… Ongoing supply-chain disruptions continued to exert upward pressure on inflation. The flash results highlighted the steepest increases in both input costs and selling charges since the inception of the survey.”

                      Full release here.

                      ECB Lagarde: Progress with vaccinations should pave the way for firm rebound

                        In the post meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that while Eurozone real GDP could have contracted again in Q1, data pointed to a “resumption of growth” in Q2. Progress with vaccinations, should “pave the way for a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021”.

                        Near-term risks on growth continue to be “on the downside, but medium-term risks remain “more balanced”. Headline inflation is “likely to increase further in the coming months”, reflecting “changing dynamics of idiosyncratic and temporary factors”. These factors can be expected to “fade out” early next year.

                        Full opening remarks here.

                        ECB Lagarde press conference live stream

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                          US initial claims dropped to 547k, lowest since March 2020

                            US initial jobless claims dropped -39k to 547k in the week ending April 17, better than expectation of a rise to 642k. That’s also the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped 28k to 651k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                            Continuing claims dropped -34k to 3674k in the week ending April 10, lowest since March 21, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -42k to 3713k, lowest since March 28, 2020.

                            Full release here.

                            ECB stands pat, reconfirm its very accommodative stance

                              ECB left monetary policy unchanged and “reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy stance”. Main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility rate, and deposit rate are held at 0.00%, 0.25%, and -0.50% respectively.

                              The pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) will continue with an envelop of EUR 1850B, “until at least the end of March 2022”. It also expects PEPP to be carried out at a “significantly higher pace” during the current quarter. ECB also stands ready to “recalibrated” the envelop if required. The asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at a monthly pace of EUR 20B. It will also continue to provide “ample liquidity” through the refinancing operations.

                              Finally, ECB “stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.”

                              Full statement here.

                              ECB in focus, Euro lacks upside momentum except versus Dollar

                                ECB meeting is a major focus for today, but expectations are rather low. No change in monetary policy is expected. Also, updated economic projections will not be released until June.

                                Even though US yields continued their march higher, European yields have stabilized since the central bank announced to accelerated significantly the pace of PEPP purchases back in mid-march. ECB will likely reiterate that the increase in PEPP purchases will continue until June. The question is whether there would be hints on scaling back the monthly purchases after that.

                                Here are some previews:

                                Euro has been relatively firm this month, up against most except Swiss Franc and Kiwi. Yet, upside momentum is disappointing so far. There is follow through buying, even against Yen. Price actions against Sterling Aussie are corrective in a down trend setting. The better performance is seen against Dollar only.

                                At this point, as long as 1.1941 support holds, we’re still expecting EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1703 to continue to retest 1.2242/2348 resistance zone. But that would more likely be due to Dollar’s own weakness.

                                Australia NAB business confidence rose to 17 in Q1, economic recovery built further momentum

                                  Australia NAB quarterly business confidence rose to 17 in Q1, up from 15. Business conditions rose from 11 to 17. Business condition for next 3 months rose form 19 to 26. Business conditions for next 12 months rose form 24 to 31. Next 12-month capex plans rose from 31 to 34, highest level since mid 1990s.

                                  Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist: “The survey suggests that the economic recovery built further momentum in Q1. What is particularly welcome is that the improvement is broad-based with conditions and confidence improving in most industries and are at an above-average level in all. Moreover, the lift in trading conditions and profitability over the last two quarters is now being translated into the Survey’s employment indicator”.

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoC press conference live stream

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                                    Gold resuming rebound, to take on 1800 handle

                                      Gold is resuming the rebound from 1677.69 today and it’s now eyeing 1800 handle. Overall near term outlook is unchanged. A double bottom reversal pattern (1676.54, 1677.69) was formed. Further rise is expected as long as 1763.36 support holds, for 38.2% retracement of 2075.18 to 1676.65 at 1828.88.

                                      Sustained break of 1828.88 will further affirm the case that whole correction from 2075.18 has completed with three waves down to 1676.65. Stronger rally would then be seen back to channel resistance (now at 1874.90) for confirmation.

                                      US oil inventories rose 0.6m barrels, WTI risks more downside

                                        US commercial crude oil inventories rose 0.6m barrels in the week ending April 16, versus expectation of -3.7m barrels. At 493m barrels, oil inventories are about 1% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 0.1m barrels. Distillate fuel inventories dropped -1.1m barrels. Propane/propylene inventories dropped -0.1m barrels. Commercial petroleum inventories rose 3.6m barrels.

                                        WTI crude oil formed a temporary top at 64.34 earlier this week and retreated. The structure of the recovery from 57.31 to 64.34 argues that correction from 67.83 may not be completed yet. Sustained trading below 4 hour 55 EMA will bring retest of 57.31 support. On the upside, though, break of 64.34 will bring retest of 67.83 high.

                                        CAD surges after BoC, a look at EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY

                                          Canadian Dollar jumps broadly after BoC statement. The tapering was well expected. But BoC now expects economic slack to be absorbed in H2 2022, suggesting that the timing of rate hike could happen much earlier than prior expected.

                                          CAD/JPY appears to have drawn strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Focus is back on 86.88 minor resistance. Break will suggest that pull back from 88.28 has completed at 85.40. Stronger rise would then be seen back to retest 88.28 high quickly.

                                          EUR/CAD’s fall is also back on 1.4949 support with the steep post BoC fall. Break will indicate that corrective rebound form 1.4723 has completed at 1.5191, and bring retest of 1.4723 low.