There were rumors that US would delay the December 15 tranche of tariffs on USD 160B of Chinese imports, essentially all untaxed goods. But such speculations are so far not backed by comments from officials formally.

White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said Tuesday that “it’s the president’s decision”. And, “I’ve got no indication that he’s going to do anything other than have a great deal or put the tariffs on.” He added, it’s up to Chinese as to wether to get a great deal. “Either way we’re going to be in a great place … The president loves them (the tariffs),”

White House National Economic Council head Larry Kudlow warned that tariff increase remains in play for now. “The reality is that those tariffs are still on the table,” even though President Donald Trump has struck a “constructive and optimistic tone” on the progress.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Monday he didn’t expect the new tranche of tariffs on China to to take effect this Sunday, December 15. “We have a deadline coming up on the Dec. 15 for another tranche of tariffs, I do not believe those will be implemented and I think we may see some backing away,” Perdue said at a conference in Indianapolis, Indiana

He added that Trump didn’t want to implement the new tariffs. But “there’s got to be some movement on their (China’s) part to encourage him not to do that and hopefully the signal that they sent over soy and pork reduction might be that signal in that way,”

Perdue also pointed out the main difficulty regarding enforcement. “The challenge is, we are used to dealing in contracts here, we are using to fulling contracts, one party contracts with another and we fulfill that, we have arbitration when that doesn’t happen,” he said. “Between nations there’s not a lot of arbitration and that’s the challenge. If China signs a deal and a contract, what are the enforceability measures of that? That’s really what we are dealing with right now.”

In November, in USD terms, China’s exports dropped -1.1% yoy, below expectation of 1.0% yoy growth. Imports rose 0.3% yoy versus expectation of -1.8% yoy fall. Trade surplus narrowed to USD 38.7B, down from USD 42.8B and missed expectation of USD 44.5B.

As the 17-month trade war with US drags on, it was indeed the fourth consecutive of contraction in exports. On the other hand, the surprised growth in imports argued that the government’s stimulus might be in play in supporting domestic demand.

The upcoming Sunday, is the “natural deadline” for the phase one US-China trade deal. If nothing happens between now an then, a new round of tariffs on USD 156B of essentially all untaxed Chinese imports will take effect. US President Donald Trump said last week that talks were “moving right along”. Yet, he didn’t object to the idea of waiting until after 2020 election to seal the deal.