CFTC Commitments of Traders- Bets on Crude Oil Price Plunged on Both Sides, as Trade War Continues to Escalate
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 21, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -9 410 contracts to 478 398 for the week. Speculative long positions slumped -22 000 contracts while shorts also plunged -12 590. Uncertainty of US-China trade war continued...
Treasury Yield in Free Fall, But the Worst in the Markets are Yet to Come
Sterling was the weakest one last week as it suffered persistent selloff ahead of UK Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement on resignation. The Pound has indeed stabilized since then after the speculation was realized. Without May, the Brexit path ahead becomes even more uncertain. The key lies on who...
Pound Softer after May’s Resignation, Loss Limited Though
News from the UK catch most headline today as, finally, Prime Minister Theresa May announced to resign. Pound's reaction is generally softer but selloff is so far limited. Sterling has been under much selling pressure up to today's announcement and thus, the decision was well priced in. Now, the...
Dollar Rally Faltered on Free Fall in Treasury Yields, Trade War Drags Sentiments
Dollar's rally attempt faltered overnight as dragged down by steep decline in treasury yields. Dollar index did hit new high at 98.37 but closed sharply lower at 97.85. 10-year yield dropped -0.097 to close at 2.296, just inch above day low at 2.294. Concerns over prolonged US-China trade war...
ECB Lacks Confidence that Economic Forecasts Could be Achieved. Focus on June for TLTROs Details
Reinforcing the dovish tone, the minutes for April’s ECB meeting exemplified the members’ pessimism over the economic outlook. They were becoming less confident that the baseline scenario of growth can be achieved. As such, the central bank would try to stimulate bank lending via the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations...
Risk Off on Trade War Escalations and Eurozone Slowdown, EUR/USD to Break 1.1111 soon
Global markets are back is heavy risk-off mode today as US-China tensions keep on escalating. Words from both sides suggest that neither one is going to back down from the current stance and there is no chance of returning to the table any time soon. More importantly, it's seems...
Trade Concerns Drag Down Asian Markets Again, Yen and Franc Lifted
Swiss Franc and Yen firm up again in Asian session as markets are gradually convinced that a full-blown US-China trade war is underway. Tensions between the two countries have clearly worsened after trade negotiation collapsed weeks ago. And it's clearly not just about trade but a broad range of...
FOMC Minutes Reinforced Patience Approach to Monetary Decision
The FOMC minutes for the meeting in May unveiled that the members remained optimistic about the economic outlook. They also viewed that soft inflation was a transitory phenomenon. These resulted in the judgment that “a patient approach” to monetary policy decision remains appropriate and the policy rate should stay...
Rising US Inventory Adds Selling Pressure To Crude Oil
Crude oil price weakened for a third consecutive day. Besides the risk-off mode driven by intensifying US-China trade war, further increase in oil inventory has substantiated near-term bearishness in the oil market. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products...
Canadian Dollar Jumps on Retail Sales, Sterling Lower on Brexit, FOMC Minutes Next
US stocks open slightly lower today while major European indices are trading in red. But it's too early to say if risk aversion in back. US-China trade war is the biggest risks to the global economy and there is no end insight. Instead, it's reported that US is going...
Brexit Update – PM May’s Last Attempt to Win a Deal Likely in Vain
Possibly in her final attempt, UK Prime Minister Theresa May tries to win the parliamentary approval of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement with a “bold new plan”. While the most eye-catching ingredient is a green light of a second referendum, the remainder of the plan was made by cobbling together...
Markets Mixed as Brexit and Trade War Remain Unresolved
Direction isn't very clear in the financial markets today as they're generally in consolidative mode. Sterling was lifted briefly overnight by UK Prime Minister Theresa May's new Brexit plan. But it was quickly back to square one after the plan was overwhelmingly rejected by MPs. For now, Canadian Dollar...
Yen Lower as Investors Relieved by Suspension of Huawei Ban, Sterling Higher on Short Covering
Risk aversion eased mildly today as markets respond positive to US decision to delay the sanctions of Huawei for 90 days. After some initial hesitation, Yen sell-off is picking up momentum in early US session, because of rally in stocks and treasury yields. On the other hand, Sterling is...
Australian Dollar Tumbles as RBA Hints on Rate Cut; Huawei Sanctions Temporarily Eased
Australian Dollar continues to be the spotlight of the week. It's knocked down by RBA Governor's comment that they's going to consider cutting interest rates in June meeting. It's actually slightly earlier than market expectations of an August cut. The selloff is more than enough to reverse post election...
RBA Removes Rhetoric of “No Strong Case” for Near-Term Rate Cut
RBA turned more dovish, than what was suggested in the meeting statement, in May. As the minutes revealed, policymakers expected to cut the policy rate if inflation remains weak while the unemployment rate climb higher. The latest economic forecasts, published two weeks ago, were based on the assumptions that...
US-China Trade War Intensifies with Huawei Isolation, Currency Markets Shrug Risk Aversion
US-China trade war remains a dominant theme in the global financial markets today. Words from both sides continued to indicate hard line stances. It doesn't quite matter how much close to facts are their rhetorics. What matters most is that neither the US or China is going to back...
Australian Dollar Cheers Election Results, Euro and Franc Turn Softer
Australian Dollar open generally higher this week as traders cheer election results over the weekend. Canadian Dollar is also firm after USMCA members reached an agreement to remove steel tariffs and retaliations. Risks sentiments are steady in mixed Asian markets. Nikkei closed mildly higher following much stronger than expected...
OPEC+ Maintains Output Cut. Market Balance Suggests No Practical Need to Raise Output
OPEC+ stayed put, maintaining the output cut agreed in December last year while pledging to monitor market developments with an option to raise production later. In our opinion, there is no practical need for OPEC+ to officially raise output. Despite US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, as well as...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Bets Trimmed Further as Trader War Uncertainty Persists
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 14, traders trimmed their bets, on both long and short sides, on futures of US dollar index, euro, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar. On the other hand, bets on both sides were increased in the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Oil Traders Awaited OPEC+ Meeting; Bets for Higher Gold Price Surged Amidst Safe Haven Demand
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 14, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -6 528 contracts to 487 808 for the week. Speculative long positions declined -8 810 contracts while shorts slipped -2 282. Overall bets for crude oil diminished as...