Brexit Update – The Remaining 1%, The Most Challenging
UK PM Theresa May demonstrates to us that her way to end dispute is compromise (to counterparty) and threat (to own people). After months of negotiation, the Withdrawal Agreement for Brexit was approval unanimously by EU member states on Sunday. The final draft has not addressed the concerns of...
Dollar Higher but Trump-Xi Meeting is a Wild Card
It's another week with multiple theme happening at the same time. Swiss Franc ended as the strongest on risk aversion. Oil's free fall could be that extra lift the the Franc. Dollar ended as the second strongest, but that's mainly due to relatively smaller problems in the US. Sterling...
Euro Down on Growth Worry, Canadian Follow Oil Lower
Yen rises broadly today as risk aversion is back. Chinese stocks dived sharply in otherwise quiet Asian session. The Shanghai SSE closed down -2.49% at 2579.48 has likely completed recent corrective rebound. European indices also reversed initial gain and are trading broadly lower at the time of writing. Weak...
Sterling Vulnerable as Brexit Lift Fades, Markets Quiet Elsewhere
The forex markets are rather quiet today with major pairs and crosses bounded in tight range. Sterling was lifted by news that UK and EU agreed on the declaration on future relationship. But the boost is so far limited as bulls refuse to commit. Eyes will turn to the...
ECB Might Keep Policy Rates Low for Longer, Given Downside Risk to Growth and Trade War
ECB has tilted its tone on the economic outlook recently. In the minutes for the October meeting, ECB acknowledged “uncertainties and fragilities” in the economy. The members noted that risks to the economic outlook is skewed to the downside as driven by the uncertainties related to global trade. Yet,...
Sterling Surges as UK and EU Agreed on Future Relationship, Now Awaits Reactions from May’s Cabinet
In an originally quiet holiday trading day, Sterling surges broadly as UK and EU agreed on the declaration on future relationship. The move, while strong, is relatively limited at this point. There seems to be some hesitation for Sterling bulls. They'd probably prefer to wait and see how the...
Focus Turns to ECB Accounts But Markets Are Already in Holiday Mood
Trading is rather subdued in Asian session today as the markets are already in holiday mood. For now, Euro is trading generally higher, followed by Sterling. Australia and New Zealand turned soft again. But most pairs and crosses are just bounded inside yesterday's strength. For the week, Swiss Franc...
Yen Weakens as Stocks Rebound, But Dollar Fails to Capture after Weak Data
Overall, market sentiments stabilized today as started in Asian session. With the help of rebound in Asian and strengthen Europe, US stocks are set to open higher to pare some of yesterday's steep losses. As a result, New Zealand and Australian Dollar are the strongest ones for today so...
Risk Sentiments Stabilized in Asia, Brexit and Italy Budget Back in Spotlight
While Asian markets initially opened lower following the US, major indices turned positive after lunch. The development lifted Australian and New Zealand Dollar slightly. But Canadian Dollar is treated differently as weighed down by resumption of free fall in oil prices. The Loonie is trading as the weakest for...
Oil Update – Oversupply Likely Continues to Weigh on Oil Prices Next Year
Crude oil prices have declined for 6 consecutive weeks. A confluence of factor has triggered the sharp selloff: concerns that the slowdown of Chinese economic growth would accelerate, reports that Russia would not join OPEC to cut output further, Trump called for Saudi Arabia to raise output, news of...
Risk Aversion Intensifying, Yen and Swiss Franc Rally
Risk aversion dominates the global markets today and is intensifying. Major European indices are trading broadly lower with sign of downside acceleration. US futures also point to lower open, with DOW having triple-digit loss. In the currency markets, Australian Dollar is the weakest one for today. Euro follows as...
RBA Minutes Upbeat, But Australian Dollar Weakens on Risk Aversion
Australian Dollar is under broad based selling pressure today. RBA minutes reiterated the non-urgency for any rate move. IMF report pointed out risks are tilted to the downside in Australia. But risk aversion is more likely the factor driving Aussie down. Major Asian indices are in deep red following...
Australia: Low Unemployment Rate Masks Underlying Problems in Job Market
RBA has sounded confident in the domestic growth outlook in both. On the job market, the members acknowledged the decline in unemployment rate and indicated the “notable” fall in youth unemployment. The central bank forecast that employment growth would be slightly above average in the period ahead, facilitated by...
Swiss Franc Surges While Commodity Currencies Weaken
Swiss Franc is clearly the strongest one for today but the underlying reason is not apparent. There is no clear problem in emerging markets. Meanwhile, Euro is indeed following Swiss Franc, as another strong one. Sterling is a bit mixed as there is no new developments regarding May's leadership...
Sterling Stabilizes as PM May Survived the Weekend, Dollar Recovers But Stays Soft
The forex markets are generally trading in tight range as the week starts. Yen, Dollar and Sterling are generally firmer. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the weaker ones, together with Euro. But movements in the markets are very limited. Overall, the greenback stays relatively soft as markets...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bulls Outweighed Bears Amidst Thin Trading in USD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 13, NET LENGTH in USD Index persisted despite little volume. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. This came in line with the FX movement that the greenback strengthened against major currencies with...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bears Raised Bets on Oil
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 13, NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures all declined sharply. Selloff in oil prices exacerbated during the reporting week, with the front-month WTI crude oil contract slumping -10.48% while the Brent contract...
Brexit, Italy and Trade War as Focuses in Holiday Shortened Week
Sterling was overwhelming the weakest one last week on Brexit political drama in the UK. It's now even uncertain for how long Prime Minister Theresa would stay in position, not to mention if there would be an agreement for orderly Brexit. Dollar followed as the second weakest after cautious...
Yen Gathers Stream For Rebound ahead of Close, Sterling Pares Losses
Yen and Sterling are the two strongest ones today, but what they're doing are very different. Yen is extending this week's rebound. But Sterling is paring back Brexit triggered losses. Meanwhile, commodity currencies turned generally weaker as they're paring some of recent gains. Overall, after a rather volatile week,...
Sterling Takes a Breather after PM May Pledged to Hold On, How Long Could It/Her Last?
Sterling recovers mildly today but remains the weakest one on political turmoil in the UK. There is no clear sign of a come back in the Pound and it remains vulnerable for more selloff, even before weekly close. The markets are rather quiet in Asian overall. Australia, New Zealand...