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USD/JPY's consolidation pattern from 146.52 extended last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance. On the downside, firm break of 148.17 support will bring retest of 146.52 first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.88).

GBP/USD's late decline last week suggests short term topping at 1.3013 on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is back on the downside for deeper pull back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8757 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 55 M EMA (now at 0.9115) will indicate that the third leg has already started. However, rejection by 55 M EMA again, followed by break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317, will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6390 last week but reversed from there. Nevertheless, initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of near term trend line support (now at 0.6250) will argue that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has already completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6186 support. Further break there will solidify this bearish case and target 0.6087 low. For now, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6482) holds.

In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6801) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. However, this view is subject to adjustment if current decline accelerates further.

Range trading continued in USD/CAD last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 1.4541 will extend the second leg from 1.4150 to retest 1.4791 high. On the downside, break of 1.4238 will argue that the third leg has already started through 1.4150 support.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is in progress and possibly resuming. Next target is 61.8% projections of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270. While rejection by 1.4689 will delay the bullish case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 M EMA (1.3463) holds.

GBP/JPY edged higher to 194.89 last week but quickly retreated again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, above 194.89 will resume the rebound from 187.04 towards 198.94 resistance. On the downside, break of 190.71 will bring deeper fall back to 187.04 support. Overall, corrective pattern from 180.00 is still be extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 174.62).

EUR/JPY edged higher to 164.16 last week but quickly retreated again. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. Further rally remains in favor as long as 160.02 support holds. Above 164.16 will target 164.89 and then 166.67. On the downside, however, break of 160.02 will argue that rise from 154.77 has completed and turn bias to the downside. Overall, sideway consolidation pattern from 154.40 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.45).

EUR/GBP dipped lower last week but lacked follow through momentum. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside. break of 0.8488 will resume the rise from 0.8239 through 0.8472 resistance to medium term falling channel resistance (now at 0.8495). However, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8347) will suggest that rise from 0.8239 has completed and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is still bounded inside medium term falling channel. While rebound from 0.8221 might extend higher, it could still develop into a corrective pattern. Overall outlook will be neutral at best and down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) could extend, at least until decisive break of channel resistance (now at 0.8495).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation below 1.7417 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.6990 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.7417 will resume rise from 1.6335 to 161.8% projection of 1.5963 to 1.6800 from 1.6355 at 1.7709 next.

In the bigger picture, the breach of 1.7180 key resistance (2024 high) suggests that up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Sustained trading above 1.7180 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.7682, which is also close to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.7691. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.6800 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6099) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/CHF continued to struggle below long term falling channel resistance last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidation below 0.9660. But after all, further rally is expected as long as 0.9489 support holds. Break of 0.9660 will resume whole rise from 0.9204.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.9487) is a medium term bullish sign. Sustained break trading above long-term falling channel resistance (at around 0.9618) would suggest that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has bottomed at 0.9204. Stronger rally should then be seen to 0.9928 key resistance at least.

In the long term picture, bullish signs are emerging. However, the important hurdle at 0.9928 resistance, which is close to 55 M EMA (now at 0.9960), is needed to be taken out decisively before considering long term trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best.