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GBP/USD recovered ahead of 1.3300 support as sideway trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.3300 will target a retest on 1.3158. Firm break there will extend the whole fall from 1.3867 to 100% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3158 from 1.3657 at 1.2948. For now, risk is mildly on the downside as long as 1.3508 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first and some consolidations could be seen below 0.7986 temporary top. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7867 minor support holds. Above 0.7986 will resume the rally from 0.7760 to retest 0.8041 high.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it's still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7200 resistance holds. Below 0.7022 will resume the fall from 0.7277 to 100% projection of 0.7277 to 0.7076 from 0.7200 at 0.6999. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 0.6875.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement o f0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current retreat. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3769 support holds.. Above 1.3960 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 215.59 resistance holds. Below 212.90 will target 210.43/211.23 support zone. However, firm break of 215.59 will resume the rebound from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.77) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 186.18 resistance holds. Below 183.95 will bring retest of 182.01 support first. However, firm break of 186.18 will resume the rebound from 182.01 to retest 187.93 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.95) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. On the upside, break of 0.8728 resistance will bring stronger rally back towards 0.8740 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is now on the upside as rally extends. Rise from 1.6108 should target 100% projection of 1.6108 to 1.6381 from 1.6186 at 1.6459. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.6628. On the downside, below 1.6301 minor support will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

EUR/CHF's rally continues today and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.9264 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. On the downside, below 0.9155 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) should still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.

The biggest risk facing oil markets may not be another missile strike in the Middle East. It may be the calendar.

Since peaking near $120 in March, Brent crude has fallen back below $95 despite the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, or at least severely choked, and US-Iran negotiations continue without a breakthrough. On the surface, that price action suggests traders believe diplomacy will eventually win. Underneath, however, the physical oil market may be operating on borrowed time.

The reason oil has not exploded higher back then is relatively simple. Governments and commercial operators responded to the crisis by aggressively releasing strategic reserves and drawing down inventories. Those stockpiles have acted as shock absorbers, allowing consumers to keep receiving crude even while normal supply routes remain impaired. The market solved a supply problem by consuming inventory rather than restoring supply.

That distinction is becoming increasingly important because inventories are not infinite. They buy time, but they cannot create oil. Analysts warn that the period between mid-June and mid-July could become a critical window as emergency buffers approach operational stress limits. If the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained by then, the market may be forced to deal with the underlying shortage directly.

That is where the discussion of $150 crude begins. Not because traders suddenly become more fearful, but because the physical market changes. Once emergency reserves can no longer compensate for disrupted supply flows, refiners and importers may be forced to compete aggressively for available barrels. The resulting squeeze could push prices far beyond levels justified by current market sentiment.

Ironically, none of this is visible in the chart today. Brent's technical outlook remains surprisingly bearish for the near term. The rebound from 89.93 has been capped by 55 4H EMA, 55 D EMA and below 38.2% retracement of 115.30 to 89.93 at 99.62. Traders continue to sell rallies rather than chase them, reflecting confidence that negotiations will eventually succeed and that supply routes will normalize before inventories become a problem.

That belief leaves the downside open in the near term. A break below 89.93 would target 86.09 and potentially 61.8% retracement of 58.72 to 119.50 at 82.04. In effect, the market is still pricing peace, or at least pricing enough progress to avoid a prolonged supply crisis.

The next few weeks may reveal whether that confidence is justified. If a diplomatic breakthrough arrives before stockpiles become critically depleted, oil could continue moving lower and inflation fears would ease. If negotiations drag on while emergency reserves approach exhaustion, the market's focus could shift abruptly from peace talks to physical shortages.

In that scenario, today's debate over whether Brent should trade at $90 or $100 may look trivial. The real question would become whether the global economy is prepared for a world where the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained and oil is forced to reprice toward $150.