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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0662; (P) 1.0729; (R1) 1.0857; More...

EUR/USD's rally from 1.0176 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.0531 from 1.0358 at 1.0932 On the downside, below 1.0763 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. Downside should be contained well above 1.0531 resistance turned support to bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0668) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. That came after drawing support from 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0199. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume through 1.1274. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2808; (P) 1.2855; (R1) 1.2941; More...

GBP/USD's rally is from 1.2099 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2923 will pave the way back to 1.3433 high. On the downside, below 1.2803 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.2558 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3433 (2024 high) should have completed at 1.2099 as a corrective move. Up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is still in progress but it's too early to say that it's resuming. Corrective pattern from 1.3433 could extend with one more down leg. But after all, eventual upside breakout is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8871; (P) 0.8893; (R1) 0.8930; More…

USD/CHF's decline resumed by breaking through 0.8855 temporary low, and intraday bias is back the downside. Current development should confirm that rise from 0.8374 has completed at 0.9200, after rejection by 0.9223 key resistance. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690 next. On the upside, above 0.8924 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.12; (P) 149.15; (R1) 149.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with break of 148.08 temporary low. Fall from 158.86, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94 high, has resumed. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will pave the way back to 139.57 low. On the upside, 149.32 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

US initial jobless claims fell -21k to 221k in the week ending March 1, below expectation of 236k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 250 to 224k.

Continuing claims rose 42k to 1897k in the week ending February 22. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3k to 1866k.

Full US jobless claims release here.

ECB cut its deposit rate by 25bps to 2.50% as expected. It maintains a data-dependent stance and stressing it is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path” amid rising uncertainty.

ECB noted that disinflation process remains on track, with inflation upgrade reflects stronger energy prices. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were downgraded due to weaker exports and investment, driven partly by trade and broader policy uncertainty.

In the new economic projections:

• Headline inflation to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027.
• Core inflation to average 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027.
• GDP to grow 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% In 2026, and 1.3% in 2027.

Full ECB statement here.

6 March 2025

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop broadly as staff expected, and the latest projections closely align with the previous inflation outlook. Staff now see headline inflation averaging 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The upward revision in headline inflation for 2025 reflects stronger energy price dynamics. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis. Domestic inflation remains high, mostly because wages and prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge with a substantial delay. But wage growth is moderating as expected, and profits are partially buffering the impact on inflation.

Monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, as the interest rate cuts are making new borrowing less expensive for firms and households and loan growth is picking up. At the same time, a headwind to the easing of financing conditions comes from past interest rate hikes still transmitting to the stock of credit, and lending remains subdued overall. The economy faces continued challenges and staff have again marked down their growth projections – to 0.9% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027. The downward revisions for 2025 and 2026 reflect lower exports and ongoing weakness in investment, in part originating from high trade policy uncertainty as well as broader policy uncertainty. Rising real incomes and the gradually fading effects of past rate hikes remain the key drivers underpinning the expected pick-up in demand over time.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of rising uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively, with effect from 12 March 2025.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

***

The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.

• A 25 basis point cut to the ECB deposit facility rate is widely anticipated, marking the seventh cut in the current cycle.
• The ECB continues to cut rates amid slow Eurozone growth, while the Federal Reserve pauses, creating a notable divergence in monetary policy.
• What next for EUR/USD?

A 25 basis point cut to the ECB deposit facility rate is fully expected today. However, the chances of another cut in April are less certain, with markets now pricing in a 50/50 probability of a cut.. The market is now focusing on a possible pattern of quarterly rate cuts after this week. Investors are also considering whether the ECB might eventually lower rates below 2%, as forward rates for the end of the year are currently priced at 70 bps which would leave rates at 2.5%.

While U.S. tariffs could still impact the economic outlook, the chances of the ECB cutting rates faster or more deeply have lessened. This shift comes after recent inflation data showed a smaller-than-expected decline, reducing pressure on the ECB to act aggressively.

Source: LSEG

What to Expect from the ECB’s Decision

Today’s decision is expected to mark the ECB’s seventh rate cut during its current cycle of reducing rates. Over the past year, the central bank has lowered rates by 150 basis points, with another 25-basis-point cut likely today. This would bring the rate close to the estimated neutral range of 1.5% to 2.5%, marking an important point in the ECB’s policy decisions.

The reason for this expected cut is the slow economic growth across the eurozone and lower inflation pressures. January’s inflation data for the euro area showed that core inflation is cooling down. To boost demand, the ECB is under pressure to ease financial conditions even more.

The Debate Over “Restrictive” Policy

A major topic in today’s meeting is whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will keep calling the current policy “restrictive.” Some hawkish members of the Governing Council believe the policy is no longer restrictive, given the recent rate cuts and other easing steps. However, more dovish policymakers point to Europe’s ongoing economic challenges and uncertainty with growth and inflation as reasons to continue monetary support.

Markets will pay close attention to Lagarde’s comments in the press conference. If she signals a move away from describing the policy as “restrictive,” it could lead to changes in market expectations and affect the value of the euro.

Diverging Policies: ECB vs. Federal Reserve

The ECB and the Federal Reserve are taking very different approaches to monetary policy. The Fed is being cautious and has paused its rate hikes as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing. Meanwhile, the ECB is continuing to cut rates.

This difference has caused the euro-dollar rate spread to narrow, giving the euro an advantage in recent trading. If the ECB stays focused on easing policies without hinting at big changes, the euro could remain strong against the dollar in the short term.

Final Thoughts

The recent strength and rise in EUR/USD hasn’t been driven much by ECB actions. Instead, it’s been more influenced by weak U.S. economic data and hopes for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.

Looking ahead, U.S. tariffs on the EU will play a major role in moving the EUR/USD rate. Over the medium term I do expect EUR/USD to weaken. This view also depends on the ECB cutting rates by at least another 50 basis points to reach 2.0%.

Technical Analysis – EUR/USD

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is currently enjoying one of its strongest weekly gains in recent memory. The question is will it be able to hold onto these gains through the ECB meeting and the US jobs data on Friday?

The question is how far can the Euro rally at this stage?

Weak US data and recessionary fears are really weighing on the US Dollar of late. Despite the recent concerns around inflation expectations and tariff announcements, the US Dollars selloff has been swift.

There is scope for further upside but the RSI on a daily timeframe has already entered overbought territory, providing one warning sign. Given that we have NFP jobs data tomorrow it may not be wise to try and chase further gains to the upside.

Immediate resistance rests at 1.0840 before the 1.0904 and 1.0948 comes into focus.

A move lower may find support 1.0755 before the 1.0700 and 1.0600 handles become the areas of focus.

EUR/USD Daily Chart, March 6, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

• 1.0755

• 1.0700

• 1.0600

Resistance

• 1.0840

• 1.0904

• 1.0948

In this article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Bitcoin BTCUSD published in members area of the website. As our members know BTCUSD is showing impulsive bullish sequences in the cycles from the 15,760 and 50,186 lows , that are calling for a further strength. Recently we got a pull back that has ended at the Blue Box zone,our buying area. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Forecast and trading setup.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 02.25.2025

BTCUSD is showing an incomplete structure from the all-time high on January 20th. The current Elliott Wave count suggests we should ideally see more downside in the short term, toward the 84,703–73,638 area -Blue Box (our buying zone). As the main trend is bullish, we expect to see at least a 3 waves bounce from the buying zone. Once the price reaches 50 Fibs against the (X) blue peak, we will book partial profits. This setup could ideally lead to a rally toward new highs. We advise against selling and prefer the long side from the marked blue box (buying zone).

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable. 🚫

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 03.05.2025

BTCUSD made an extension toward our buying zone: 84,703–73,638. The crypto found buyers at the Blue Box as expected, and we got a good reaction from there. As a result, traders who entered long positions are now enjoying risk-free profits. With the price holding above the 78,197 low, we expect further strength to follow. Next technical area to the upside comes at 98,258-102,052.

USDJPY continues to trend lower within larger bear channel and fell to five-month low on Thursday as dollar remains under increased pressure from trade war uncertainty and Fed’s dovish shift.

Fresh probe below important Fibo support at 149.22 (50% retracement of 139.57/158.87 ascend) looks for final weekly close below this level (after repeated failure in past two weeks) to confirm bearish signal for deeper drop towards 146.95 (Fibo 61.8%).

Bearish momentum remains strong on daily chart, with the latest formation of 30/200 death cross, adding to bearish near-term structure.

Broken Fibo level at 149.22 reverted to resistance and should keep the upside protected, to avoid scenario of repeated failure to register weekly close below here and boost signals of bear-trap formation.

Res: 148.69; 149.22; 149.50; 150.00.
Sup: 147.56; 146.95; 146.49; 146.00.