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As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price of Brent crude oil dropped to $73.92 yesterday:

→ this marks a new low for 2025;

→ the decline since 15 January exceeds 9%.

Bearish sentiment is being driven by Trump's policies. According to Reuters, the Brent crude price is falling due to:

→ US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war with China;

→ threats of tariff hikes for other countries;

→ high oil inventory levels in the US;

→ Trump’s promise yesterday to increase US oil production.

Additionally, the US Treasury Department announced yesterday that it was imposing new sanctions on several individuals and tankers involved in delivering millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil to China each year, adding to the volatility of Brent crude prices.

Could the Brent crude price continue to fall?

From a technical analysis perspective of the XBR/USD chart, we can see that the price has dropped to a key support level around $75 per barrel. At this level, bulls had the upper hand, managing to break a major resistance line at the end of 2024. It is possible that bulls remain strong in this price range, and the long lower wick on the candlestick—marked with a blue arrow—supports this idea.

On the other hand, bears appear to be gradually gaining control at increasingly lower levels (as indicated by the red arrows):

→ the $77 level acted as resistance when Brent crude prices moved in February;

→ the $75 level has now shifted from support to resistance.

Given these factors, it is reasonable to assume that supply and demand forces may balance each other out at current levels, leading to signs of consolidation in the Brent crude price chart.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.28; (P) 189.13; (R1) 190.18; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Corrective pattern from 180.00 might have completed already. Deeper fall would be seen to 100% projection of 198.94 to 189.31 from 194.73 at 185.10. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 194.73 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.59; (P) 157.72; (R1) 158.41; More...

EUR/JPY's fall resumed by breaking through 157.96 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 156.16 support. Firm break there would argue that corrective pattern from 154.40 has completed at 166.67. Deeper fall would be seen to 100% projection of 166.7 to 156.16 from 164.89 at 154.38. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 160.68 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8317; (P) 0.8348; (R1) 0.8381; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.8290 would extend to 0.8472 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 0.8221. On the downside, break of 0.8290 will target a retest on 0.8221 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.8442) will pave the way to 0.8624 cluster zone (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621), even just as a correction to the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But still, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8621/4 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6487; (P) 1.6542; (R1) 1.6578; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment, as consolidation from 1.6800 is still extending. Strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480 to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 1.6800 will resume the rally from 1.5963. However, sustained break of 1.6480 will bring deeper correction 61.8% retracement at 1.6283 instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is holding on to 1.5996 key support (2024 low) despite brief breach. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9375; (P) 0.9389; (R1) 0.9412; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as consolidations continue above 0.9359. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9516 resistance holds. Corrective rebound from 0.9204 might have completed at 0.9516 already. Firm break of 0.9336 support will solidify this bearish case and target a retest on 0.9204 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 0.9204 has completed as a corrective move after failing to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Firm break of 0.9204/9 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4282; (P) 1.4324; (R1) 1.4348; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. Downside of the consolidation from 1.4791 should be contained by 1.4260 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267), which is also close to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4264). On the upside, above 1.4501 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. Larger up trend is expected to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.4260 will indicate that deeper correction is underway.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs) confirms long term uptrend resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6263; (P) 0.6276; (R1) 0.6296; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6329 resistance holds. Below 0.6239 minor support will bring retest of 0.6087 short term bottom first. Further break of 0.6087 will resume larger fall from 0.6941. However, firm break of 0.6329 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6511) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0355; (P) 1.0381; (R1) 1.0410; More...

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0176 and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong resistance is expected from 1.0531 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, sustained break of 1.0531 will rise the chance of bullish reversal and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is back on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, strong support from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2360; (P) 1.2437; (R1) 1.2511; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While corrective rebound from 1.2099 could still extend, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. On the downside, break of 1.2248 support will bring retest of 1.2099 first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.3433. However, decisive break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.