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UK’s Halifax House Prices Rose For The First Time Since November 2017 In February

GCI Financial

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP marginally rose against the USD and closed at 1.3901.

On the macro front, Britain's Halifax house price index rebounded 0.4% on a monthly basis in February, at par with market expectations and rising for the first time in 3 months, highlighting that the nation's housing market may be regaining momentum. In the prior month, the index had registered a revised drop of 0.5%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3907, with the GBP trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that the nation's RICS house price balance unexpectedly fell to a level of 0.0 in February, whereas market participants had anticipated it to remain steady at 7.0.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3865, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3822. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3954.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japan’s Economic Growth Revised Sharply Higher In 4Q 2017

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.35% against the JPY and closed at 106.10.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 106.06, with the USD trading slightly lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that final reading on Japan's GDP expanded more than initially estimated by 0.4% on a quarterly basis in the final three months of 2017, while the preliminary figures had indicated an advance of 0.1%. The nation's GDP had advanced 0.6% in the prior quarter.

Other data indicated that the nation posted a less-than-expected (BOP basis) trade deficit of ¥666.6 billion in January, following a surplus of ¥538.9 billion in the previous month. Markets were anticipating the nation to register a (BOP basis) trade deficit of ¥695.5 billion.

Earlier in the session, data revealed that Japan's Eco Watchers Survey for the current situation recorded an unexpected drop to a level of 48.6 in February, confounding market expectations for a rise to a level of 50.5. The index had registered a reading of 49.9 in the prior month. Furthermore, the nation's Eco Watchers Survey for the future outlook declined more-than-anticipated to a level of 51.4 in February, against market consensus for a fall to a level of 51.7. In the prior month, the index had registered a reading of 52.4.

The pair is expected to find support at 105.64, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.22. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.35, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.64.

Moving ahead, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, due tomorrow, will keep investors on their toes. The central bank is anticipated to stand pat on monetary policy.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8907; (P) 0.8937; (R1) 0.8955; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook despite loss of upside momentum. With 0.8877 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Prior break of 0.8928 resistance indicates near term trend reversal. Decline from 0.9305 has completed at 0.8686 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305. Further rise should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8686 at 0.9069. Firm break there will target retest of 0.9305 high. On the downside, below 0.8877 minor support will dampen this bullish view and target 0.8771 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Swiss Franc Trading Marginally Higher, Ahead Of Swiss Unemployment Rate Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.65% against the CHF and closed at 0.9433.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9431, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9378, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9326. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9463, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9496.

Moving ahead, investors would focus on Switzerland’s unemployment rate data for February, scheduled to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

BoC Stands Pat On Interest Rates, Underlines Growing Trade Uncertainty

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.07% against the CAD and closed at 1.2910.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BoC), at its March monetary policy meeting, opted to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.25%, as widely expected. In the post-meeting statement, the central bank noted that recent trade policy developments have clouded growth outlook for Canada as well as global economy. Nevertheless, the central bank described the current global growth momentum as positive and added that Canadian inflation was running close to its target, while wage growth has improved.

On the data front, Canada’s international merchandise trade deficit narrowed to C$1.91 billion in January, compared to a revised deficit of C$3.05 billion in the previous month. Markets were expecting the nation to record a trade deficit of C$2.50 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2881, with the USD trading 0.22% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2832, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2784. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2965, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3050.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5807; (P) 1.5859; (R1) 1.5895; More....

EUR/AUD lost momentum after hitting 61.8% projection of 1.5258 to 1.5816 from 1.5626 at 1.5971. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is expected as long as 1.5823 minor support holds. Break of 1.5976 will target 100% projection at 1.6184 next. Nonetheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.5823 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 1.5626 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance. At this point, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But decisive break will confirm resumption of long term rise from 1.1602. On the downside, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate completion of the medium term rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1655; (P) 1.1683; (R1) 1.1736; More...

EUR/CHF's rebound extends to as high as 1.1712 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for retesting 1.1832 high. At this point, we'll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1584 minor support will target 1.1455 low again.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7786; (P) 0.7807; (R1) 0.7846; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7712. With 0.7892 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2857; (P) 1.2928; (R1) 1.2983; More....

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation below 1.3000 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.2757 resistance turned support holds. Another rise is still in favor. Above 1.3000 will extend the rise from 1.2246 to t 1.3065 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.2757 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.2450 support.

In the bigger picture, strong break of 1.2919 resistance adds much credence to the bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4589 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.60; (P) 105.91; (R1) 106.37; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will pave the way to 98.97 key support level and below. However, break of 107.67 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 108.93) first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.