Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2781; (P) 1.2811; (R1) 1.2861; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.2246 extends. Further rise should be seen to 1.2919 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But a firm break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, break of 1.2614 support is needed to signal completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.2246 is mixing up the medium term outlook. Nonetheless, USD/CAD is staying below falling 55 week EMA (now at 1.2771), hence, the bearish case is in favor. That is, fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.2061 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. However, firm break of 1.2919 will revive the case of medium term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.31; (P) 106.92; (R1) 107.27; More...

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 106.37 minor support will bring retest of 105.54 low. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.36% against the USD and closed at 0.7762.

LME Copper prices declined 1.1% or $75.0/MT to $6953.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.6% or $14.0/MT to $2158.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7732, with the AUD trading 0.39% lower against the USD from yesterday's close, after overnight data revealed that Australia's AiG performance of manufacturing index dropped to a level of 57.5 in February, compared to a level of 58.7 in the previous month.

Elsewhere in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to a 6-month high level of 51.6 in February, defying market consensus for a fall to a level of 51.3. the PMI had recorded a level of 51.5 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7693, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7654. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7795, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7858.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.2% against the USD and closed at 1.2196, after data revealed that annual inflation in the Euro-zone slowed in February.

The Euro-zone's flash consumer price index (CPI) advanced 1.2% on an annual basis in February, in line with market expectations and rising at its weakest pace since December 2016, thus justifying the European Central Bank's cautious approach in unwinding its policy stimulus, despite growth exceeding expectations. In the previous month, the CPI had registered a rise of 1.3%.

Separately, Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at a record low of 5.4% in February, as widely expected. On the contrary, the nation's GfK consumer confidence index dropped more-than-estimated to a level of 10.8 in March, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 10.9. In the prior month, the index had registered a reading of 11.0.

In economic news, the second estimate of US annualised gross domestic product (GDP) was revised lower to 2.5% on a quarterly basis in the final three months of 2017, compared to a rise of 3.2% in the prior quarter. The preliminary figures had recorded a rise of 2.6%. Moreover, the nation's pending home sales unexpectedly fell 4.7% on a monthly basis in January, hitting its the lowest reading since October 2014. Market anticipation was for pending home sales to rise 0.5%, following a revised flat reading in the previous month.

Other data revealed that the US Chicago Fed purchasing managers index eased more-than-anticipated to a level of 61.9 in February, marking a 6-month low level. The index had posted a level of 65.7 in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a drop to a level of 64.1. On the other hand, the nation's MBA mortgage applications rebounded 2.7% in the week ended 23 February, compared to a fall of 6.6% in the prior week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2196, with the EUR trading flat against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2173, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2149. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2231, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2265.

Going ahead, traders would keep a close watch on the final Markit manufacturing PMI for February, scheduled to release across the Euro-zone. Additionally, the region's unemployment rate data for January, will also be eyed by traders. Later in the day, the US initial jobless claims, personal income and spending data, both for January, followed by the ISM and the final Markit manufacturing PMIs for February as well as construction spending data for January, all would garner a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 1.0% against the USD and closed at 1.3757, as Brexit talks with the European Union’s (EU) hit another stumbling block, after the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, rejected EU’s draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement.

The EU suggested to keep British-ruled Northern Ireland in a customs union if a solution to the border dispute cannot be found.

Additionally, EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, warned that a Brexit transition deal was not guaranteed and that negotiations on a post-Brexit transition period had confirmed “significant divergences”. Further, he added that Britain must accelerate the pace of talks if it wants a deal this year.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3759, with the GBP trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3696, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3633. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3869, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3979.

Going ahead, traders would focus on UK’s net consumer credit and mortgage approvals data both for January coupled with the Nationwide house prices data for February, all slated to release in a few hours, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.59% against the JPY and closed at 106.63.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 106.69, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Japan's final Nikkei manufacturing PMI dropped to a level of 54.1 in February, less than a preliminary print indicating a fall to a level of 54.0. The PMI had recorded a level of 54.8 in the previous month.

Early morning data showed that the nation's consumer confidence index surprisingly slid to a level of 44.3 in February, compared to a reading of 44.7 in the previous month, and defying market anticipations for a rise to a level of 44.8.

The pair is expected to find support at 106.40, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.14, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.58.

Moving forward, Japan's jobless rate for January, set to release overnight, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9401; (P) 0.9429; (R1) 0.9474; More...

Despite the strong rebound from 0.9186, USD/CHF is still staying below 0.9469 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9469 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9511) and above. On the downside, below 0.9321 minor support will bring retest of 0.9186. Break there will extend the larger down trend to 0.9115 medium term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.8545. In any case, sustained trading above 55 day EMA is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 0.9444.

Macroeconomic data indicated that the ZEW economic expectations index in Switzerland fell to a level of 25.8 in February, compared to a reading of 34.5 in the previous month.

On the other hand, the nation’s KOF economic barometer registered an unexpected rise to a level of 108.0 in February, confounding market expectations for a fall to a level of 106.0. The index had recorded a revised reading of 107.6 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9449, with the USD trading 0.1% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9406, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9363. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9475, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9501.

Ahead in the day, traders would look forward to Switzerland’s 4Q GDP, real retail sales and manufacturing PMI data.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.44% against the CAD and closed at 1.2831.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2837, with the USD trading 0.1% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2783, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.273. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2869, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2902.

Later today, the release of Canada's RBC manufacturing PMI for February, would keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3704; (P) 1.3810; (R1) 1.3864; More....

GBP/USD's sharp fall and break of 1.3764 suggests resumption of decline from 1.4345. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3651 resistance turned support and below. At this point, such fall is viewed as a corrective move./ Hence, we'll look for strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4345 at 1.3429 to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, break of 1.4144 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4279) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggests that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.