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GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3435; (P) 1.3490; (R1) 1.3556; More.....
GBP/USD's rally and break of 1.3549 resistance confirms resumption of rise from 1.3038. And it's likely that medium term rally from 1.1946 is resuming too. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.3651 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.3492 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, while the medium term rebound from 1.1946 low was strong, it's limited below 1.3835 key support turned resistance. As long as 1.3835 holds, we'd view such rebound as a correction. That is, we'd expect another leg in the long term down trend through 1.1946 low. However, sustained break of 1.3835 should at least send GBP/USD to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.


USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9717; (P) 0.9755; (R1) 0.9776; More....
USD/CHF's decline accelerates through 0.9734 and reaches as low as 0.9698 so far. Corrective fall from 1.0037 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 0.1.0037 at 0.9656. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.9656 to contain downside and bring rebound. But break of 0.9827 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming first. And, sustained trading below 0.9656 will pave the way to retest 0.9420.
In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don't expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.43; (P) 112.69; (R1) 112.92; More...
USD/JPY's decline from 113.63 accelerates today. But still, it's staying above 112.02 support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Also, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.
In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.


AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7786; (P) 0.7805; (R1) 0.7822; More...
AUD/USD's rise from 0.7500 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.7896 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.7886). On the downside, break of 0.7694 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, we're still slightly favoring the case that corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8034). But stronger than expected rebound from 0.7500 is dampening this bearish view. On the downside, break of 0.7500 will target 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) to confirm this bearish case. But break of 0.8124 will extend the rise from 0.6826 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451 before completion.


USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2533; (P) 1.2561; (R1) 1.2607; More....
USD/CAD's decline from 1.2919 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.2919 at 1.2389 or possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.2697 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. With that in mind, fall from 1.2919 is viewed as a correction. Hence, we're not anticipating a break of 1.2061 low. In the long run, USD/CAD should have another medium term rise to take on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065.


GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.59; (P) 152.05; (R1) 152.59; More...
GBP/JPY's rebound form 149.40 resumed and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 153.39 resistance. Break will resume medium term rally. On the downside, below 151.17 minor support will extend the corrective pattern with another fall through 149.40 before completion.
In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up a bit with last week's sharp decline. But still, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal. And the corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.64; (P) 135.07 (R1) 135.61; More....
EUR/JPY's really resumed and reaches as high as 135.62 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Medium term rally is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 114.84 to 134.39 from 132.04 at 144.12. On the downside, below 134.53 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 132.04 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back 55 week EMA (now at 128.34).


EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8861; (P) 0.8876; (R1) 0.8895; More...
EUR/GBP rises to 0.8917 so far today and outlook is basically unchanged. Further rise is mildly in favor to 0.8981 resistance. Sustained break there will indicate that whole decline from 0.9305 has completed. In such case, EUR/GBP will target a test on 0.9304/5 key resistance. On the downside, below 0.8828 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8668 instead.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.


EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
No change in EUR/AUD's outlook. The correction from 1.5570 could still extend lower. But again, near term outlook stays bullish with 1.5226 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.5526 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5770 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate larger reversal and target 1.4949 support next.
In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). However, sustained break of 1.5226 will indicate trend reversal and target 1.3624 again.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1664; (P) 1.1693; (R1) 1.1716; More...
EUR/CHF is staying in tight range below 1.1776 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. While there is no confirmation yet, we'd maintain that the cross is close to topping. And in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen well below 1.2 handle to bring medium term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1602 support will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.1387 and below.
In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'll hold on to this bullish view and expect another to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Though, we'll reassess the outlook if 1.1198 is firmly taken out.


