Sample Category Title

As the GBP/USD chart shows today:

→ Since the start of the month, the pound has declined by approximately 2.5% against the US dollar.

→ The 1.2618 level has shifted from support to resistance (as indicated by arrows).

Bearish sentiment has also been fuelled by Friday’s UK data (according to Forex Factory):

→ Retail sales fell by 0.7% month-on-month.

→ PMI figures came in below analysts’ expectations.

Technical analysis of the GBP/USD chart offers some optimism for bullish traders:

→ In the long term, the pair remains within an ascending channel (shown in blue), with the lower boundary potentially acting as support.

→ The RSI indicator is in oversold territory, suggesting the cheaper pound may attract buyers.

→ The psychological level of 1.25000 served as support, as the price sharply reversed upwards from it on Friday.

Upcoming US data on Wednesday is likely to have a significant impact on GBP/USD:

→ 16:30 GMT+3: GDP figures.

→ 18:00 GMT+3: PCE Price Index, a key measure of inflation.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Picture

The crypto market has recharged over the weekend. Positive traction resumed on Monday after the crypto market’s total capitalisation shrank by 150 billion from Saturday’s high near $3.39 trillion to Sunday’s low. We saw more profit-taking by retail traders, and buying resumed during trading hours, setting the stage for inflows from institutional traders due to increased risk appetite in global markets.

Bitcoin approached the $100K level on Friday but failed to break through and, at one point, pulled back below $96K. This looks like an intra-week correction. On Monday morning, we saw buying dominate again, taking the price back to $98.2K. The persistence of the recent pattern suggests that Bitcoin will reach the $106K level by the end of the week.

Ethereum is trading near $3400, close to the November highs. A move above $3450 could spark more active growth, with a potential target at $4000-4100, the area of the year’s highs.

News Background

According to SoSoValue, net inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs totalled a record $3.38 billion last week, bringing total inflows since bitcoin ETFs approval in January to $30.84 billion.

Solana updated the all-time high previously set in 2021 on the back of four filings with the SEC to launch spot Solana ETFs. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) published Forms 19b-4 for these funds.

VanEck reiterated its September Bitcoin forecast. The target price for the first cryptocurrency in the current cycle is $180,000. Several key indicators suggest that the next phase of the bull market has just begun.

According to The Block, Ethereum’s daily transferred on-chain value reached $7.13 billion, the highest since the beginning of the year. This indicates a recovery in network activity amid the cryptocurrency market rally.

Trump is expanding the number of cryptocurrency supporters in a future administration. He has nominated hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. According to CNN, Trump is considering appointing former Bakkt CEO Kelly Leffler as Secretary of Agriculture.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index declined to 85.7 in November, down from 86.5 in October, reflecting growing pessimism across key sectors of Europe’s largest economy. Current Assessment Index dropped from 85.7 to 84.3, indicating weaker confidence in present conditions. Expectations Index edged slightly lower from 87.3 to 87.2, suggesting limited optimism for the months ahead.

Sector-specific data painted a grim picture. Manufacturing sentiment worsened, dropping from -20.6 to -21.9, and the services sector also reversed, declining from 0.1 to -3.6. Construction sentiment weakened significantly, falling from -25.7 to -28.5. Trade was the only sector to show some improvement, rising from -29.4 to -26.6, though it remains firmly in negative territory.

Ifo President Clemens Fuest characterized the situation as increasingly bleak, remarking that sentiment among German companies has turned "gloomier" and that the economy is "floundering."

Full German Ifo release here.

Gold price started a fresh increase above the $2,600 resistance level. WTI Crude oil prices climbed higher above $70.00 and might extend gains.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,535 zone against the US Dollar.
• A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near $2,645 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices extended gains above the $68.50 and $70.00 resistance levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $70.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $2,535 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $2,600 and $2,605 resistance levels.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,675. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,700 resistance zone. Finally, the bears appeared near $2,720. A high was formed near $2,720 and the price is now consolidating gains.

The price dipped a few points below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,536 swing low to the $2,720 high. The RSI is now below 50 and the price is now approaching a connecting bullish trend line with support near $2,645.

If there is a downside break below the $2,645 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,605 support or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,536 swing low to the $2,720 high. The next major support sits at $2,585.

Immediate resistance is near the $2,710 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,720 level. An upside break above the $2,720 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,740. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,750 level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a major upward move from $66.50 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $68.50 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The bulls pushed the price above the $70.00 and $70.30 resistance levels. The recent high was formed at $71.36 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.19 swing low to the $71.36 high.

The RSI is still above the 50 level and there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $70.30. Immediate support on the downside is near the trend line zone.

The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $70.00 zone or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.19 swing low to the $71.36 high, below which the price could test the $69.20 zone.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $68.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.50 support zone.

If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $71.35. The next major resistance is near the $72.20 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74.50 level.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads. Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

The PMI’s on Friday again highlighted the divergence in growth and confidence between the US and EMU. The glimmers of hope some optimists saw in the October EMU PMI reading where brutally rejected by the November update. The composite PMI tumbled back in contraction territory (48.1 from 50.0). Even more worrisome, services which until now still provided some counterweight against an ailing manufacturing sector, this time also dropped below the 50-boom-or-bust level (49.2 from 51.6). Germany and in particular France, were the main reason of the decline, but growth in the rest of the EMU is slowing as well. At the same time, rising wage costs caused input and output prices rising again, indicating Europa is heading for a stagflationary environment. The contrast with the US could hardly be bigger. The US composite PMI rose more than expected to an healthy 55.3 from 54.1, with survives taking the lead (57.0). In manufacturing, a mild contraction continues (48.8). Even more striking, in this context, the pace of US output price inflation slowed to the slowest since May 2000. In a sharp bull steepening move, German yields tumbled between 11.7 bps (2-y) and 4.4 bps (30-y). Markets now again see a 50-50% chance between a 25 bps and 50 bps ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting. The reaction of US interest rate markets to the US PMI’s was much more modest. The US 2-y yield added 2.4 bps. The 30-y declined 1.4 bps. With markets discounting only 60% of a 25 bps Fed cut at the December Fed meeting and less than 75bps additional easing toward the end of next year, investors apparently don’t feel the need to a more hawkish positioning yet. The combination of lower EMU yields and a solid US eco performance supported equities on both sides of the Atlantic (Dow +0.97%; Eurostoxx 50 +0.70%). EUR/USD briefly spiked below the 1.035 mark immediately after the EMU data, but closed the day at 1.042. Sterling showed a similar intraday pattern, but EUR/GBP soon returned north of 0.83, as the US PMI (composite 49.9) also missed expectations by a big margin.

This morning, sentiment on Asian markets (ex China) is constructive. Markets apparently draw some comfort from Scott Bessent being Donald Trump’s candidate to become Treasury Secretary. Markets hope he will hold a market-friendly but also a measured policy, supporting financial and macro-economic stability. US Treasuries are rebounding, with yields declining between 4.5 (2-y) and 7 bps (10-30-y). The correction (in US yields) and a constructive risk sentiment also triggers some profit taking on recent USD rally. DXY drops below the 107 barrier (compared to a test of 108 on Friday). EUR/USD also tries to fight back (1.048). Especially, for EUR/USD, we don’t anticipate a genuine turnaround, but some consolidation might be on the cards. The eco calendar contains the IFO business confidence. We also keep a close eye at ECB comments after last Friday’s PMI’s. Later this week EMU CPI data (Thursday, Friday) are important to further shape expectations on the pace of ECB easing in December.

News & Views

Nationalist candidate Calin Georgescu unexpectedly won the first round of Romanian presidential elections, securing around 22% of the vote. He’s slightly ahead of Prime Minister Ciolacu who gained around 20%. Both men advance to a run-off vote on December 8. This set-up still favors Ciolacu for the ceremonial win, although the president is commander-in-chief of the military and the country’s representative at NATO and EU Summits. Georgescu has questioned military support for Ukraine, called for an end to the war, cast doubt on the benefit of Romania’s NATO-membership and labeled Russian president Putin one of the world’s few true leaders. The outcome of the presidential ballot makes way for possible surprises at general elections (December 1) triggered by a collapse of the coalition government (Social Democrats of PM Ciolacu and Liberal Party) after three years in charge.

People close to the Italian government indicated that this year’s budget deficit could be 3.9% or 4% of GDP instead of the 3.8% target. The debt ratio might be up to two percentage points above the 134.8% tabled in September. The key concern is the 1% growth forecast Rome uses is significantly above the 0.7%-0.8% taking into account by the Bank of Italy, the IMF or the EC. That’s also why the impact on debt ratio is larger than on the deficit. Italian officials estimate that every tenth of a percentage point deviation in growth equates to around €2bn in additional issuance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.90; (P) 193.85; (R1) 194.86; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current development suggests that corrective rise from 180.00 has completed with three waves up to 199.79. Deeper fall would be seen to 183.70 support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 197.77 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.94; (P) 161.21; (R1) 162.53; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current development suggests that corrective rebound from 154.40 has completed with three waves up to 166.67. Deeper fall would be seen to 155.14 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 163.19 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8272; (P) 0.8310; (R1) 0.8351; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 0.8446 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8259 will resume larger down trend to 0.8201 key support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. However, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound. Decisive break of 0.8201 will indicate long term bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5948; (P) 1.6041; (R1) 1.6117; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6161 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break break of 1.5996 key support will carry larger bearish implications. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 1.6598 to 1.6161 from 1.6359 at 1.5922, and then 161.8% projection at 1.5652.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 1.5996 key support level. Sustained break there will argue that whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is already reversing. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.6359 resistance, will keep medium term outlook neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9241; (P) 0.9283; (R1) 0.9359; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral first and more consolidations would be see first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9364 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.9294 minor support will bring retest of 0.9204/9 support zone. Decisive break there will indicate larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9444 resistance holds. Decisive break of 0.9209 low will resumed long term down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9772 to 0.9209 from 0.9444 at 0.9096 next.