Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0890; (P) 1.0913; (R1) 1.0954; More...

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1213 accelerates further and intraday bias remains on the downside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0656. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.0483.For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 (2023 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low), with fall from 1.1213 as the third leg. Downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404, to bring up trend resumption at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2979; (P) 1.3011; (R1) 1.3074; More...

GBP/USD is still holding above 1.2842 support and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3047 resistance holds. Below 1.2842 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 61.8% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.3047 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, considering mildly bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.3433 already. Price actions from there are seen as correction to whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8616; (P) 0.8632; (R1) 0.8649; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the upside at this point. Fall from 0.9223 should have completed at 0.8374, after defending 0.8332 low. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8899 next. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8614 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.8374 is seen as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.12; (P) 151.83; (R1) 152.32; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 139.57 should target 61.8% projection of 141.63 to 153.87 from 151.27 at 158.83. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 151.27 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6419; (P) 1.6475; (R1) 1.6520; More...

EUR/AUD's break of 1.6351 resistance turned support suggests that rebound from 1.6002 has completed as a three-wave correction at 1.6598. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.6132 support first. Break there will bring deeper fall to 1.5996 key support level again. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6598 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 (2023 high) at 1.6000), up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and turn outlook bearish.

• Gold loses ground but bullish phase intact
• MACD and RSI head south

Gold prices tumbled to a fresh almost three-week low of 2,701 but are currently recouping some losses, flirting with the 2,725 support level. A closing session beneath the 2,710-2,716 region could find strong support at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at 2,685. Steeper decreases may open the way for a bearish tendency in the short term, hitting the 2,673 bar.

In the positive scenario, a return to the upside may take the bulls toward the short-term SMAs in the 4-hour chart at 2,741 and 2,750 respectively. Slightly higher, the 2,762-2,770 restrictive region may be another tough obstacle for traders.

According to technical oscillators, the MACD is diving beneath its trigger line, holding below the zero level, while the RSI is ticking lower under the 50 territory, confirming the recent bearish bias.

In brief, gold prices have been posting a bearish spike, but as long as the price still holds above 2,725 the positive tendency remains intact in the near term.

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged as markets anticipated a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election.
• Market sentiment suggests a Trump presidency and Republican majority will boost the US economy, leading to a stronger US dollar in the medium term.
• Trump’s proposed policies on tariffs and tax cuts could impact US inflation and interest rates expectations.

The US Dollar exploded to the upside as Donald Trump is expected to be confirmed as the 47th President of the United States in a remarkable comeback. Markets appeared buoyed by the news with Wall Street Indexes, the US Dollar and Bitcoin all rallying as results filtered through.

US Dollar Strength to Continue?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) had been on the back foot since the start of the week but roared to life in the Asian session. The DXY erased early week losses to hit a fresh high around 105.300 as the potential for a Trump clean sweep grows.

Currency Strength Chart (Strongest to Weakest): USD, CAD, NZD, CHF, AUD, GBP, JPY, EUR.

Source: FinancialJuice

The Strength in the US dollar is largely down to expectations that Donald Trump’s idea around tariffs could contribute to a renewed rise in US inflation and lead to less rate cuts moving forward. This is reflected by the OIS curve which has recorded some 10bp+ repricing across 2025 tenors. That embeds a policy rate close to 4.0% in June 2025, almost 100 bps higher than mid-September pricing.

Market participants also seem to be of the opinion that a Trump Presidency and Republican majority will be good for the economy. The surprise for me here is that the US economy has actually been strong this year, which begs the question what changes are markets expecting?

There have been a few comments already from Trump, who has promised to lower taxes and pay down debt as well. This may prove to be a challenge but time will tell. Trump has also stated that he doesn’t wish to start more wars but rather end them, something which could have an impact on safe haven currencies like the CHF, JPY and of course Gold prices moving forward.

The Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday may be overshadowed by the election as markets have largely priced in a 25 bps cut. This meeting will also be too soon for any updates to the Feds projections due to changes in policy by a potential Trump Presidency.

Until announcements around tariffs and tax cuts are made and the implications begin, the Fed are likely to maintain their current stance. However, market participants as always are already moving to price in such eventualities and this in theory could keep the USD on the offensive moving forward. Intriguing times ahead for the US Dollar and global markets as the year-end approaches.

Technical Analysis

The DXY enjoyed an impressive rally from the back end of September until October 24, before beginning a period of consolidation. This was followed be a brief pullback this week as markets prepared for the US election. The drop in the DXY could also be attributed to potential profit taking following the DXY’s impressive rally.

Moving forward however, a lot will depend on whether the Republicans secure a clean sweep and control the house and congress. Such a move would make it easier for Trump to push through changes around tariffs and potential tax cuts which will be driving force for the US Dollar in the months ahead.

The DXY briefly traded above the psychological 105.00 handle for the first time since July. The question now is whether the DXY will experience a pullback or push on and immediately gain acceptance above the 105.00 handle. I would suggest paying attention to what happens with the house, while a congress split could have severe implication for the DXY and other markets moving forward.

A republican clean sweep however, will likely see the DXY gain acceptance above the 105.00 handle with the next areas of resistance resting around 105.63 and 106.00.

Conversely, a push lower in the DXY would see the index face support at previous highs around 104.50 before the confluence area between 103.80 and 103.00 comes into focus. This could be a key area of support for the DXY as it holds the 100 and 200-day MAs as well as a few key levels and is a strong area of support.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, Novemeber 6, 2024

Source: TradingView.com

Support

• 104.50
• 103.80
• 103.00

Resistance

• 105.00
• 105.60
• 106.00

In this article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Bitcoin BTCUSD published in members area of the website. As our members know BTCUSD is showing impulsive bullish sequences in the cycle from the 52598 low , that are calling for a further strength. Recently we got a pull back that has ended at the Blue Box zone,our buying area. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Forecast and trading setup.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.04.2024

BTCUSD is giving us correction that is unfolding as a Elliott Wave Double Three pattern. At the moment structure is still incomplete. Pull back shows lower low sequences. Bitcoin can see more downside toward 66813-63855 blue box ( buying zone). We don’t recommend selling Bitcoin and prefer the long side. From the marked zone, BTCUSD should ideally make either rally toward new highs or in 3 waves bounce alternatively. Once bounce reaches 50 Fibs against the ((x)) black high , we will make long position risk free ( put SL at BE) and take partial profits.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable. 🚫

Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.06.2024

BTCUSD made extension toward our buying zone : 66813-63855. The crypto found buyers at the blue box as expected and we got good reaction from there. Bitcoin made impulsive rally that broke toward new highs. As a result, traders who entered long positions are now enjoying risk-free profits. With the price holding above the 66865 low, we believe the next leg up can be in progress.

The USDJPY pair has surged to a 14-week peak, touching 153.83 as demand for the US dollar strengthens with the unfolding US presidential election. This rally aligns with increasing support for Donald Trump, whose lead in critical states has fuelled investor optimism.

This week, US political developments are poised to dominate market attention, with the outcome still pending in several swing states.

In Japan, the recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes indicate a consensus among board members to persist with interest rate hikes, aligning with their inflation and economic objectives. Despite this, there is no immediate expectation for a rate increase until at least January 2025, reflecting the prevailing global economic uncertainties and market volatility.

Currently, the Japanese yen is not favoured as a safe-haven asset, with the market focus sharply pivoting towards the US dollar.

Technical analysis of USDJPY

The USDJPY pair has completed a corrective phase to 151.28 and initiated the fifth wave of growth towards 155.38. A consolidation phase around 153.33 suggests the potential for an upward breakout, continuing the ascent towards 155.38. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows a solid upward momentum from below the zero level.

Following a full correction to 151.28, the pair found strong support and advanced to 153.33. The market is now consolidating at this level, and a continuation of the upward trend to 155.38 is anticipated. This view is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, positioned near 80, indicating sustained upward pressure.

Eurozone's PPI decreased by -0.6% mom in September, slightly exceeding the expected decline of -0.5% mom. On an annual basis, PPI fell by -3.4% yoy, marginally less than the anticipated -3.5% yoy drop.

The monthly decline in Eurozone PPI was primarily driven by a significant -1.9% mom decrease in energy prices. Intermediate goods prices remained stable, while capital goods saw a slight decrease of -0.1% mom. In contrast, prices for both durable and non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.2% mom.

Across the broader EU, PPI also dropped by -0.6% mom and -3.3% yoy. Among member states, Estonia, Spain, and Romania led the monthly declines with falls of -3.6%, -2.4%, and -2.2%, respectively, while Ireland recorded a significant 4.8% increase, followed by Finland and Greece with more modest gains of 1.0% and 0.7%.

Full Eurozone PPI release here.