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Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.73; (P) 139.67; (R1) 140.25; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment as it's bounded in choppy trading inside range of 138.53/142.79. Price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. On the downside, break of 138.53 support will bring deeper decline to 136.44 support and possibly below. However, we'd expect strong support at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.22; (P) 121.64; (R1) 122.07; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 122.88 temporary top continues. Such consolidation could extend further. But downside should be contained by 121.18 resistance turned support and bring another rally. Above 122.88 will target 124.08. Decisive break there will extend larger rise from 109.20 and target 126.09 key resistance next. However, firm break of 121.18 will likely extend the whole corrective pattern fro 124.08 with another falling leg towards 118.23 low again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is now on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.209 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8686; (P) 0.8711; (R1) 0.8757; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8786 continues. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 38.2% retracement of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 0.8639 and bring another rise. Above 0.8786 will target 0.8851 resistance and above. However, price actions from 0.8303 are seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.8303 to 0.8851 from 0.8402 at 0.8950 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3849; (P) 1.3949; (R1) 1.4017; More...

EUR/AUD's pull back from 1.4183 extended lower but it's still holding on to 1.3874 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, we're still favoring the case of medium term trend reversal defending key support level at 1.3671, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Above 1.4183 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance. Sustained break there will affirm our bullish view and target 1.4721 key resistance next. However, break of 1.3874 will dampen our view and turn bias to the downside for 1.3624 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0713; (P) 1.0723; (R1) 1.0745; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. With 1.0689 minor support intact, we continue to favor the case of trend reversal, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, after defending 1.0620 key support level. That is, correction from 1.1198 could have completed. Above 1.0823 will target 1.0897 resistance next. However, break of 1.0689 support will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0629 low again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7603; (P) 0.7661; (R1) 0.7767; More...

AUD/USD's strong rebound and break of 0.7631 resistance indicates that the pull back from 0.7740 is completed. The development indicates that rise from 0.7158 is likely resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7740 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.7158 to 0.7740 from 0.7490 at 0.7850 next. That coincides with key long term retracement level at 0.7849. On the downside, outlook will stay bullish now as long as 0.7490 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8185) and above.

Key Points:

• Price action trading within a descending wedge.
• RSI Oscillator close to overbought levels.
• Watch for a breakdown towards the bottom of the wedge in the coming days.

The last few weeks have been relatively interesting for the EURGBP as the pair has continued to remain bullish as the UK seemingly grappled with budget planning issues ahead of the Brexit. However, despite the pair’s relative ascendency price action is now coming close to a key reversal zone that could see the pair trending lower in the coming days.

Taking a look at the charts provides some interesting clues to the EURGBP’s direction in the coming days. Presently, price action is caught in a wedge style formation that has seemingly capped its recent movements. However, it’s a descending wedge and the highs are subsequently becoming lower thereby increasing the downside pressure. In addition, the RSI Oscillator has trended higher and is now closing in on oversold territory indicating that a directional change could be coming.

Also, the diverging economic status of the Eurozone and the UK is now becoming clearer as the market digests the pending risks of a Brexit. The latest data seems to imply that the majority of the downside risk over the medium term is actually on the European side and that the UK may actually not experience a recession, despite the recent scare mongering of the anti-Brexit crowd. Subsequently, the Pound is likely to see some resurgence, albeit on a fundamental basis, against the Euro in the coming months.

Ultimately, the short term is likely to mean a downside move for the pair given the descending wedge and the oversold RSI Oscillator. The most likely scenario would involve price action pulling back from its current level, around the 0.8742 mark, back towards the bottom of the current wedge at 0.8450. However, given the depth of the recent appreciation, a deeper breakdown below the wedge could yield a move back towards the0.82 handle. Subsequently, there are plenty of benefits to the short positioning for this pair in the near term.

Key Points:

• Despite gains, silver hasn't shaken its technical bias.
• 100 day EMA remains bearish.
• Strongerhawkish tone from Yellen could help to encourage a downtrend.

Silver risks losing its post-FOMC gains in the coming session if it can't shake off some of its bearish technical bias. Specifically, unlike gold, the metal needs to convincingly push through that 100 day EMA and invert its Parabolic SAR before we can begin to have any degree of certainty that yesterday's freshly-made ground isn't going to be ceded.

The first technical reading suggestive of a near-term decline is that aforementioned 100 day moving average. Quite clearly, silver prices have had some difficulty pushing beyond the 100 day EMA which comes as little surprise given the broadly bearish bias of the 12 and 20 day measures. As a result of this, market participants will be viewing the current zone of resistance as a near-term impasse which could herald a subsequent reversal.

Indeed, further losses would be in line with silver's Parabolic SAR bias which remains stubbornly bearish. Whilst it is true that the reading is on the very cusp of inverting, the metal seems to be struggling to recruit enough support to make that final surge above the 38.2% Fibonacci level. However, unless this retracement is breached, chances of seeing that bias shift remain fairly slim.

What's more, moving in step with the long-term bearish trend line is now looking more than reasonable given a conspicuous lack of support from the stochastic oscillator. Until the prior session, the highly oversold reading had been largely responsible for militating against downside risks. Now however, the oscillator is firmly neutral which leaves the bears rather well positioned to erode some of the recent gains.

Ultimately, if we do see a decline take hold again, losses could extend back to the 16.62 mark and beyond. Although, the presence of the 61.8% Fibonacci level around this price will likely provide a near-term cap on losses. Furthermore, the fundamental environment will be highly important as the metal moves towards this point so keep an eye on the news feed, especially for any hint of a slightly more hawkish tone from Yellen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3238; (P) 1.3360; (R1) 1.3426; More...

USD/CAD's pull back from 1.3534 accelerates to as low as 1.3282 so far. The strong break of 38.2% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3333 indicates deeper decline is underway. We'd expect strong support at 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound. At this point, we'd still expect larger rise from 1.2460 to extend through 1.3598 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.3211 will dampen this view and target 1.2968 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg, started from 1.2460, is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

Following the FOMC's decision to raise interest rates by 25bps, the US dollar plummeted lower and the EUR aggressively advanced. While this is not the ‘expected' reaction to such an outcome, we believe the market wanted somewhat more of a hawkish response from the Fed Chair, which did not transpire. Furthermore, we feel the dollar was further weakened by the ‘dot plot' scenario that has showed little change since December.

Thanks largely to yesterday's rally, weekly bulls look to be on course to connect with the weekly resistance at 1.0819, followed closely by the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873. Looking down to the daily candles, price ran through the top edge of daily supply at 1.0714-1.0640 (now acting support area) yesterday, and now looks free to challenge the above noted weekly resistance and nearby daily resistance at 1.0850.

While the higher timeframes suggest further buying may be on the cards, H4 action is currently seen teasing the underside of a H4 supply zone coming in at 1.0753-1.0734. A break above this hurdle could lead to a continuation move north up to the H4 supply at 1.0797-1.0780, which happens to be shadowed closely by Feb's opening level at 1.0801 and the 1.08 handle.

Our suggestions: Despite higher-timeframe direction pointing to a move north, we are not going to be buying into a H4 supply zone! A break above this area, however, would likely call for a move north up to the next H4 supply at 1.0797-1.0780. A short from here is a little more appealing given that it fuses closely with Feb's opening level at 1.0801, the 1.08 handle and a possible H4 AB=CD (black arrows) bearish formation taken from the low 1.0525. However, there's still a good chance that this H4 supply zone area will be faked considering that the weekly resistance is sited just above at 1.0819. Therefore, we would need to see the fakeout before looking to short here as this could prove to be a monster trade!

Data points to consider: US housing data, Philly Fed manufacturing index report as well as the US jobless claims figure are all scheduled for release at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.0797-1.0780 ([wait for price to fake above this area to 1.0819 before considering shorts] stop loss: ideally beyond the fakeout candle).

GBP/USD

Across the board we saw the US dollar fall sharply yesterday following the FOMC's decision to raise interest rates by 25bps. This, as you can see, boosted the GBP's appeal. The pair ran through offers at 1.2250 and tested the 1.23 handle going into the closing bell. However, we believe that this rally will likely generate little follow-through today. This notion is supported by the following factors:

• Just beyond 1.23 is the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.2329.
• Encasing this yearly level is a daily resistance area pegged at 1.2252-1.2342.
• H4 trendline resistance taken from the low 1.2214.
• Overall, this market is entrenched within a clear downtrend at present.

Despite the above points, we would really like to see the H4 candles interact with the 2017 yearly opening base line before we look to consider selling this market.

Our suggestions: Keep an eye out for price to challenge 1.2329. Should this come to fruition, our desk would think about selling from here on the condition that a lower-timeframe sell signal forms (see the top of this report). Ideally, we would look for price to close below 1.23 as this would be enough to justify reducing risk to breakeven.

Data points to consider: Bank of England monetary policy announcements at 12pm. US housing data, Philly Fed manufacturing index report as well as the US jobless claims figure are all scheduled for release at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.2329 region ([waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming signal to form is advised] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).

AUD/USD

The commodity currency gravitated north against its US counterpart yesterday after the FOMC decided to raise interest rates by 25bps. From the weekly scale we can see that price is currently back shaking hands with the weekly trendline resistance stretched from the high 0.8163. In the event that the bulls continue to press forward here, the next upside objective can be seen at 0.7849-0.7752: a weekly supply that merges nicely with another weekly trendline resistance taken from the high 0.7835. Down on the daily chart, yesterday's candle smashed its way through the daily supply at 0.7699-0.7656, and is now seen retesting the top edge of this area as support. Assuming that the bulls remain in the driving seat here, our expectation is for price to connect with the nearby daily Quasimodo resistance at 0.7734.

Jumping across to the H4 candles, the pair is seen trading within the walls of a H4 supply at 0.7720-0.7706. Although the bears have made an attempt to push things lower from here, we feel this base is on the verge of giving way which could see the candles approach the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 0.7732.

Our suggestions: Quite simply, we are looking to short from the current H4 Quasimodo resistance level today. Not only does this base converge closely with the daily Quasimodo resistance line at 0.7734, it's also positioned around the weekly structures mentioned above. We would, dependent on the time of day, likely look to go in aggressive at 0.7732 and place stops above the apex high at 0.7740. However, do be aware that we have Australian employment figures due soon!

Data points to consider: Aussie employment figures at 12.30am. US housing data, Philly Fed manufacturing index report as well as the US jobless claims figure are all scheduled for release at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.7732 (Stop loss: 0.7742).

USD/JPY

Yesterday's FOMC decision to hike rates by 25bps sent the US dollar screaming lower. The H4 mid-way support at 114.50, the 114 handle and the H4 demand base at 113.47-113.70 (now acting resistance) were collectively taken out during the bearish assault! With March's opening level at 113.09, followed closely by the 113 handle and February's opening level at 112.70 (112.70/113.09) now in view, where do we go from here?

Both the weekly and daily charts indicate room to extended lower this week, with the closest support structure not seen in view until 111.35-112.37: a daily demand zone which sits around the top edge of a weekly support area drawn from 111.44-110.10. As such, there is a possibility that the H4 112.70/113.09 zone may suffer a breach as price may want to tag the top edge of the current daily demand at 112.37. Does this mean we should ignore 112.70/113.09 altogether? Certainly not!

Our suggestions: Wait for price to cross paths with 112.70/113.09 and only look to go long only if a reasonably sized H4 bullish rotation candle presents itself from within the zone. This, of course, will by no means guarantee that price will advance, but what it will do is show buyer intent within a high-probability buy zone.

Data points to consider: US housing data, Philly Fed manufacturing index report as well as the US jobless claims figure are all scheduled for release at 12.30pm. Bank of Japan monetary policy announcements (tentative) GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 112.70/113.09 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CAD

Recent events show that the FOMC's decision to hike rates by 25bps sent the US dollar aggressively lower against the Canadian dollar. As can be seen from the H4 chart, the pair concluded trade by closing beyond March's opening base line at 1.3312, the round number 1.33 and a H4 trendline support taken from the high 1.3171. To our way of seeing things, as long as the bears defend the recently broken H4 levels as resistance, there is little structure seen in this market until we reach the H4 support area coming in at 1.3196-1.3212 (fixed within a daily support area at 1.3212-1.3169).

Our suggestions: Based on the above points, our prime focus today will be on looking for shorting opportunities on any retest seen between 1.3312/1.33. Should the retest occur and a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle presents itself, we will be all over this, targeting the aforementioned H4 support area.

Data points to consider: US housing data, Philly Fed manufacturing index report as well as the US jobless claims figure are all scheduled for release at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.3312/1.33 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).

USD/CHF

With the US dollar taking a hit yesterday on the back of FOMC actions, the H4 candles are now seen trading a tad beyond parity (1.0000) as we write. The next downside hurdle on this scale comes in around the H4 demand area drawn from 0.9963-0.9972. Also noteworthy is the daily chart. Price is currently hovering just ahead of a daily demand barrier chalked in at 0.9929-0.9975, which happens to intersect with not only a daily support level seen at 0.9950, but also a weekly trendline support etched from the low 0.9443.

Our suggestions: Owing to the confluence seen within the above noted daily demand area; we have a keen interest in the aforementioned H4 demand area today given that it's located within the walls of the said daily demand. However, seeing as how there's a fairly good chance that price could fake beyond this H4 zone into the depths of the daily demand, we would strongly recommend waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle to take shape before executing a trade.

Data points to consider: US housing data, Philly Fed manufacturing index report as well as the US jobless claims figure are all scheduled for release at 12.30pm.Swiss National Bank monetary policy announcements at 8.30am GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 0.9963-0.9972 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

DOW 30

After the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 25bps yesterday we saw the US equity market extend Tuesday's bounce from the H4 demand area at 20769-20801, and eventually spike above H4 supply coming in at 20951-20911. Although both the weekly and daily charts show little resistance on the horizon, we cannot afford to buy this market just yet. Once, or indeed if, the 21000 H4 resistance is conquered, we will then have a relatively free run up until the H4 supply zone picked at 21139-21101.

Our suggestions: Quite simply, watch for a H4 close to print beyond the 21000 mark today. In the event that this comes into view, and price retests 21000 as support and prints a reasonably sized H4 bull candle, we would consider entering long from here, targeting the aforementioned H4 supply and possibly beyond.

Data points to consider: US housing data, Philly Fed manufacturing index report as well as the US jobless claims figure are all scheduled for release at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for price to engulf 21000 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form following the retest is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

Shortly after the FOMC announced its decision to raise interest rates by 25bps, the dollar fell and by extension dragged the price of gold higher. This, as you can see, has brought the yellow metal up to within the jaws of a rather interesting H4 supply zone penciled in at 1227.5-1223.9. Not only is there a converging H4 trendline resistance etched from the low 1216.5, there's also a daily resistance area bolstering this base at 1232.9-1224.5. Despite weekly action not showing any resistance until we reach the 1241.2 neighborhood, there's a relatively sound chance that price will decline in value from the current H4 supply area sometime today.

Our suggestions: While there is a possibility that the H4 candles may ignore this H4 zone today and head for the above noted weekly resistance barrier, we feel a sell trade from the said H4 supply can still be considered valid if a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle forms.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1227.5-1223.9 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).