Sample Category Title

• Markets bide time ahead of Fed; expected to raise rates
• Netherlands begin voting in election testing anti-establishment mood
• UK Jan wage data misses expectations and below month ago levels

Overnight:

Asia:

• China Premier Li stated that ties between China and US keep moving forward and was optimistic about ties. One-China policy was foundation of China-US relations. Trade war with China would hurt US companies and did not wish for such a scenario. 6.5% GDP target was not low and not easy to meet. China faced "relatively large " employment pressure this year as the number of college graduates would hit record high of 7.95M

Europe:

• EU officials said to consider June 20th meeting to authorize Brexit talks. Considering forcing UK to wait until June for formal terms of Brexit to begin, reducing the time PM May has to negotiate a deal
• Scottish First Min Sturgeon (SNP): Might attempt to join European Free Trade Association (EFTA) instead of staying in EU after vote for independence
• YouGov Times survey showed 57% of Scotland voters want to stay in the UK; 43% want to be independent
• ECB's Nouy (SSM chief): Greece bank situation had noticeably and substantially improved in last two years but NPLs remained a major challenge
• France presidential candidate Fillon reportedly placed under formal investigation over diversion of public finances in relation to jobs for family members investigation (as suspected)

Energy:

• Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: -0.5M v +11.6M prior (first draw in 3 weeks)

Economic data

• (FR) France Feb Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e, CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 100.5 v 100.5e
• (CH) Swiss Feb Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.8%e
• (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedabanki) left its 7-Day Term Deposit Rate at 5.00%
• (UK) Feb Jobless Claims Change: -11.3K v -41.4K prior; Claimant Count Rate: 2.1% v 2.2% prior
• (UK) Jan Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 2.2% v 2.4%e; Weekly Earnings (ex Bonus) 3M/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e
• (UK) Jan ILO Unemployment Rate 3M/3M: 4.7% v 4.8%e

**Fixed Income Issuance:

• (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
• (DK) Denmark sold total DKK1.26B in 3-month and 6-month Bills

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

**Index snapshot (as of 09:40 GMT)**

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4% at 3,411, FTSE +0.3% at 7,378, DAX +0.1% at 12,004, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,985, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 9,970, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 19,667, SMI +0.2% at 8,680, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading higher as market participants await results of the Dutch election as well as the Fed's policy decision due later today; Banking stocks generally higher across the board with the peripheral lender weighted FTSE MIB and IBEX outperforming as a result; Energy, commodity and mining stocks also trading higher as copper and oil prices trade higher intraday; shares of Hikma Pharmaceuticals leading the gains in the FTSE 100 after releasing its FY16 results.

Upcoming scheduled US earnings (pre-market) include Concordia Healthcare, Siteone Landscape Supply, Titan International, and Verso Corp.

Equities (as of 09:30 GMT)

• Consumer Discretionary: [Dufry DUFN.CH +2.6% (FY16 results), Hennes & Mauritz HMB.SE -4.8% (Feb sales), Inditex ITX.ES -1.2% (FY16 results), Robert Walters RWA.UK +3.8% (FY16 results)]
• Consumer Staples: [Sixt SIX2.DE -0.5% (FY16 results)]
• Financials: [Munich Re MUV2.DE -1.6% (outlook, share buyback)]
• Healthcare: [Hikma Pharmaceuticals HIK.UK +7.4% (FY16 results)]
• Industrials: [BASF BAS.DE +0.4% (raises prices globally for antioxidants & light stabilizers by 10%), Polymetal POLY.UK +0.9% (FY16 results)]
• Technology: [Tecan Group TECN.CH -6.9% (FY16 results)]
• Utilities: [Ascopiave ASC.IT +2.0% (FY16 results), E.On EOAN.DE -2.8% (FY16 results, cuts workforce)]

Speakers

• ECB's Praet(Belgium) reiterated Council view that needed to build sufficient confidence that inflation will converge to medium-term target
• UK Brexit Min Davis stated that was expecting Queens approval on Article 50 law (royal assent) on Thursday, Mar 16th. Govt had not done any economic assessment of impact of NOT reaching a Brexit agreement. Could be upside to no deal with EU; not as frightening as people think
• EU's Tusk reiterated view that Euro Area economy is improving. Carefully preparing for Brexit negotiations; would try to keep EU and UK close after Brexit
• EU's Juncker: Unemployment was falling but region was not out of the economic crisis just yet
• Iceland Central Bank stated that it was too early to predict impact of the end of capital controls. To continue to mitigate short-term volatility (**Note: lifter capital controls earlier this week after 8 years)
• BOE Shadow MPC: BoE should prepare the ground for a possible rate hike in the minutes of their next meeting
• Denmark Central Bank raised its 2017 and 2018 GDP growth forecasts
• IEA Mar Monthly Report maintained its 2017 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.4M bpd. Opec production was higher in Feb from 32.06M to 32.0M; compliance of 91% v 90% m/m. OECD oil inventories at 3.03B barrels, +48M barrels (1st rise in six months). It noted that oil market needed time to re-balance as January inventories rise

Currencies

• USD was softer ahead of Fed rate decision where expectations are for another 25bps hike.
• The GBP/USD saw some pre-European action as the pair popped up to test above 1.2250 level. Pair moved off 7-week lows to hit a 1-week high. Dealers saw no news for the move other than buy-stops being elected. One excuse was a report by the Shadow MPC that the BoE should prepare the ground for a possible rate hike in the minutes of their next meeting (tomorrow).
• EUR/USD slightly higher in quiet trade at 1.0630 while USD/JPY was steady in the mid-114 neighborhood.

**Fixed Income:

• Bund futures trade at 159.79 up 24 ticks continuing to bounce from 158.73 lows made yesterday with 2s10s flattening on better demand for longer dated bonds. Continued upside targets 160.20 followed by 160.66. Support lies at yesterday low at 158.73 followed by 158.40.
• Gilt futures trade at 126.39 up 13 ticks trading near highs supported by weaker Avg weekly earnings data out of the UK.. Support moves to 125.75 then 125.57 with further weakness eyeing 125.24. Resistance remains at 126.38 then 126.87 followed by 127.35. Short Sterling futures trade virtually flat across the strp with Jun17Jun18 spread remaining at 17/18bp.
• Wednesday liquidity report showed Tuesday's excess liquidity rose to €1.373T a rise of €2B from €1.371T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €976M from €620M prior.
• Corporate issuance after a strong start to the week issuance grinding to a halt yesterday as issuers remain sidelined ahead of the FOMC rate meeting this evening. Today is expected to remain quiet ahead of the Fed decision.

Looking Ahead

• (CO) Colombia Feb Consumer Confidence Index: -26.0e v -30.2 prior
• OPEC workshop in Vienna
• 05:50 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed % vs. $915M prior (recd 2 bids)
• 06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Employment Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
• 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q1 Business Confidence: No est v 38 prior
• 06:00 (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI (Including Tobacco) M/M: No est v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prelim
• 06:00 (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prelim, CPI FOI Index Ex Tobacco: No est v 100.6 prior
• 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
• 06:00 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell €1.0B in 13-Week Bills
• 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell Bills - 06:00 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays)
• 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.0B in 2.5% Aug 2046 Bunds
• 06:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €1.0-1.5B in 6-month and 12-month Bills
• 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 10th: No est v 3.3% prior
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
• 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jan Retail Sales M/M: +0.2%e v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.9% prior
• 07:00 (IE) Ireland Feb CPI M/M: No est -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
• 07:00 (IE) Ireland Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.5%e -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior
• 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell combined RUB45B in 2022 and 2033 OFZ bonds
• 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 08:00 (UK) PM May weekly question time in House of Commons
• 08:00 (FI) Finland govt responds to no-confidence motions
• 08:30 (US) Mar Empire Manufacturing: 15.0e v 18.7 prior
• 08:30 (US) Feb CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.5% prior
• 08:30 (US) CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.3% prior
• 08:30 (US) Feb CPI Index NSA: 243.416e v 242.839 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 251.155e v 250.783 prior
• 08:30 (US) Feb Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.1%e v 0.8% prior, Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior, Retail Sales Control Group: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior
• 08:30 (US) Feb Real Avg Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v -0.5% prior (revised from -0.6%), Real Avg Hourly Earning Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%)
• 09:00 (US) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins final day of policy meeting
• 09:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Feb Minutes
• 09:00 (PL) Poland Feb CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior
• 09:00 (CA) Canada Feb Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v -1.3% prior
• 09:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index - 09:45 (IT) ECB's Visco in Milan
• 10:00 (US) Mar NAHB Housing Market Index: 65e v 65 prior
• 10:00 (US) Jan Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
• 10:00 (BE) Belgium Jan Trade Balance: No est v €0.1B prior
• 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
• 10:50 (UK) BoE conducts reverse Gilt auction (7-15 years)
• 11:00 (PE) Peru Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 7.2% prior
• 11:00 (PE) Peru Jan Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 4.5%e v 3.2% prior (revised from 3.3%)
• 12:00 (NG) Nigeria to sell 2021, 2027 and 2036 Bonds
• 12:30 (IL) Israel Feb CPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
• 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to Raise Fed Funds Target Range to 0.75-1.00%
• 16:00 (US) Jan Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$42.8B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v -$12.9B prior

The pair is on front foot in early Wednesday's trading and eyeing 0.7600 barrier, after previous day's weakness was contained by rising 55SMA at 0.7538.

This keeps strong support zone between 0.7532 and 0.7502, defined by 200 / 100 SMA's, out of rech or now.

Rising daily cloud continues to underpin (cloud top lies at 0.7527 today), with bullish signal generated on break above daily Tenkan-sen (0.7560).

Recovery rally is testing pivot at 0.7584 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7739/0.7489 downleg) break of which will open next trigger at 0.7514 (daily Kijun-sen).

Sustained break here is needed to signal higher low at 0.7489 and open way for further retracement of 0.7739/0.7489 correction.

Res: 0.7600; 0.7614; 0.7643; 0.7700
Sup: 0.7560; 0.7545; 0.7532; 0.7494

Oil price bounced to $48.85 per barrel on Wednesday and hit the highest level since last Friday, after spiking to three-month low at $47.08 on Tuesday.

Rally was backed by surprise fall in US inventories in API report, released on Tuesday.

Double-Doji in past two days, with Tuesday's candle with very long tail, signal strong indecision and downside rejection after the price fell below $50 per barrel last week.

Investors are eyeing today's release of EIA crude inventories, which is showing forecast for 3.3 million barrels build in the week behind us, well below previous week's shock on 8.2 million barrels build.

Two long-tailed candles are underpinning, however, the price needs clear break above initial barrier at $48.71 (200SMA) to generate stronger signal for retest of breakpoint at $50.00 (daily cloud base / near Fibo 38.2% of $55.01/$47.08 fall).

Initial reversal signal is generating as daily RSI/slow stochastic are emerging from oversold territory.

Alternative scenario sees repeated close below 200SMA as signal of extended consolidation before broader bears resume.

Res: 48.71; 50.00; 50.70; 51.05
Sup: 48.31; 47.90; 47.08; 45.27

The DAX Index continues to hug the 12,000 level this week. In the Wednesday session, the DAX is at 11,989.50. On the release front, Eurozone Employment Change edged up to 0.3%, above the forecast of 0.2%. In the US, today's highlight is the Federal Reserve policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to raise the benchmark rate a quarter-point, from 0.50% to 0.75%. On Thursday, the eurozone releases Final CPI, with the markets expecting the index to improve to 2.0%.

German numbers were a mixed bag on Tuesday. There was further indication that inflation continues to improve, as Final CPI rebounded with a gain of 0.6%, compared to a 0.6% decline a month earlier. The well-respected ZEW Economic Sentiment report improved to 1.28, although the markets had expected a stronger reading. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment climbed to 25.6, its strongest gain since December 2015.

The eurozone continues to post improved inflation and growth data, and this has led to calls in some quarters for the ECB to tighten monetary policy. The ECB has kept the benchmark rate at a flat 0.0%, and its asset-purchase program does not expire until December. Will ECB President Mario Draghi taper the monthly purchases or at least signal such an intent? Draghi is doing his best to perform a complicated balancing act. A stronger economy would favor tighter policy, but he does not want ECB to become entangled in heated political contests in Europe. Dutch voters are having their say on Wednesday, while France holds elections in April, followed by Germany in September.

More job numbers out of the US, more good news for the economy. Nonfarm payrolls sparkled in February, as the indicator jumped to 235 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 196 thousand. The excellent NFP report makes it a virtual certainty that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. Although a rate hike has been priced in by the markets at 93%, there have been disappointments in the past, so a rate move will likely give the dollar a boost against its major rivals, such as the euro. The solid job numbers also give President Trump a much-needed boost. Trump is under pressure to present an economic agenda, but the markets won't mind giving him some additional breathing room with the economy performing well.

Wednesday March 15: Five things the markets are talking about

Volatility is rising this week, with the VIX stateside jumping the most in four-weeks yesterday.

In Europe, elections remain a wild card for investors. Today's vote in the Netherlands will deliver a reading on the state of "populism" in the region as races in France and Germany begin to heat up.

In the U.S, investors have the Fed rate decision and economic projections to contend with (2pm EDT). The 100% implied probability means that, similar to Draghi's press conference last week, the tone of chair Yellen's press conference and forward guidance will decide if today decisions are a snooze fest or whether the 'mighty' USD and bond yields pivot away to higher or lower levels.

Down-under, there is the Aussie jobs report and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate announcement to open the Australasian sessions.

1. Global stocks mark time, wait for Fed decision

After a strong start to the week, Asian share prices consolidated in the overnight session, preferring to seek guidance from today's Fed rate announcement.

In Japan, the Nikkei share average (-0.2%) was dragged down by a firmer yen (¥114.60) along with the broader Topix (-0.2%).

In Hong Kong with investors also focusing on today's Fed dot-plot, the Hang Sang was on the back foot, retreating -0.2%. Sector performance were mixed, with energy shares leading the decline as lower oil prices dragged down the sector, while property stocks continued to outperform.

In China, stocks were roughly flat, with investors awaiting cues for direction as they closely monitored Premier Li Keqiang's press conference at the end of China's annual parliamentary meeting.

In Europe, equity indices are trading higher as market participants await results of today's Dutch election as well as the Fed's policy decision. Banking stocks are leading the gains on the Eurostoxx, while energy, commodity and mining stocks are trading higher on the FTSE 100.

U.S stocks are set to open in the black (+0.2%).

Indices: Stoxx50 +0.4% at 3,411, FTSE +0.3% at 7,378, DAX +0.1% at 12,004, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,985, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 9,970, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 19,667, SMI +0.2% at 8,680, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%

2. Oil prices jump after surprise U.S. stock draw, gold higher

Oil prices have rebounded from yesterday's three-month lows after U.S industry data last night showed a surprise drawdown in crude stockpiles.

Ahead of the U.S open, Brent futures are up +71c, or +1.4%, at +$51.63, after settling down -43c at +$50.92 on Tuesday, their lowest close since November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is trading up +81c, or +1.7%, at +$48.53 a barrel - the contract fell for a seventh consecutive session yesterday, its longest losing streak in 14- months.

API data yesterday revealed that U.S. crude stocks fell by -531k barrels last week. Market expectations were looking for an increase of +3.7m barrels. If the drawdown is confirmed today by the DoE it would be the first after nine consecutive builds.

Oil started the week under pressure after OPEC reported a rise in global crude stocks and a surprise output jump from its biggest member, Saudi Arabia.

Note: OPEC's monthly report indicated that oil stocks in industrialized nations rose in January to +278m barrels above the five-year average, with U.S. shale and other non-OPEC supply gaining.

Gold prices (+0.4% to +$1,203.31 per ounce) have edged up this morning on safe-haven buying due to uncertainty over the outcome of today's Dutch elections.

Also, the market is waiting for clues on the pace of U.S interest rate hikes this year. With an immediate rate increase by the Fed as a done deal, the market is focusing on what message the Fed chair Yellen will deliver.

Note: In December, the Fed forecast three-rate rises this year.

3. Fed Hike 100% priced in

The argument for a +25bps hike by the Fed was bolstered yesterday, by a stronger-than-expected U.S PPI headline print (+0.3% vs. +0.1% m/m). Fed funds have priced in +100% probability for a hike today. Expect the market to be focusing on any hints of a change in the number of increases the Fed foresees this year in its dot-plot survey (in December the consensus was for three-rate hikes).

Ahead of the open, the yield on U.S 10's fell -1bps to +2.59%, after slipping -3bps on Tuesday. The equivalent Aussie rate was little changed at +2.92%.

This evening, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its rates and yield-curve policy unchanged in its policy decision. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE), Swiss National Bank and Bank Indonesia are also expected to stand pat with their own policy decisions.

4. Dollar consolidates ahead of FOMC

It's not a surprise to see the mighty dollar lose some traction ahead of today's expected Fed rate hike.

The pound (£1.2193) has trimmed some of its overnight gains after data showed U.K wage inflation slowed sharply (see below). The pair had managed to move off yesterday's seven-week low to print a one-week high earlier this morning (£1.2231). EUR/GBP trades at €0.8711, compared with around €0.8698 beforehand, still leaving the pound around +0.2% firmer on the day.

The EUR is slightly higher outright in quiet trade (€1.0630), while USD/JPY is steady in the mid-¥114 neighborhood.

5. U.K unemployment rate hits four decade low

Data this morning revealed that U.K unemployment rate fell to a forty-year low in the three-months through January, while wage growth after inflation slowed sharply. This may suggest that U.K citizens maybe facing a living standard squeeze despite the robust labor market.

Unemployment in the November-January period fell by -0.1% to +4.7% - employment rose by +92k. The market was expecting no change.

Note: Rising inflation is beginning eat into "real" wage growth, a sign that consumers may rein in spending, potentially causing the economy to slow in the months ahead. Adjusted for inflation, regular wages grew by only +0.8% in the three-months through January, the slowest pace of growth in three-years.

This morning's data should dissuade the BoE from adjusting policy any time soon. Fixed income dealers expect no change to the BoE's benchmark rate tomorrow, currently at +0.25%.

• US futures boosted by commodities but caution remains;
• Is sudden hawkish stance a sign that Fed now sees four hikes this year?
• Oil rebounds as inventories fall and Saudi's reaffirm commitment to market stability;
• Dutch election could be the canary in the mine ahead of the French election;
• Sterling volatile as Sturgeon runs into referendum difficulties and jobs data highlights weaker wage growth.

Ahead of today's highly anticipated FOMC decision, US equity markets are expected to open a little higher with the rally in commodities seen supporting the indices while overall caution is likely to remain.

It's quite clear that investors have been gearing up to today's decision from the US Federal Reserve ever since the blackout period began a little over a week ago. Market expectations have been raised dramatically ahead of the meeting by a coordinated onslaught of hawkish commentary from policy makers, to the point that a rate hike is now around 94% priced in. The upside on the hike itself therefore looks very limited which means we're relying on the dot plot and Janet Yellen if we're going to see much of a strengthening in the US dollar or Treasury yields.

I do wonder whether the sudden coordination from policy makers was driven by the belief that four rate hikes will be needed this year, an outcome that is only around 22% priced in at the moment. A rate hike now and another in June would certainly leave the door open to four increases and stop the Fed falling behind the curve if the US economy does respond strongly to either Trumps stimulus plans – should they be enacted this year – or the prospect of them. If the dot plot points to four hikes then I think the dollar may have further to run, if not then we could be perfectly in buy the rumour sell the fact territory.

It's not just the Fed decision that people are focused on today, although a quick look at the markets would suggest it is the dominant event for investors. Commodities are performing very well so far today, with oil in particular buoyed by Tuesday's surprised inventory drawdown, as reported by API, and Saudi Arabia's commitment to oil market stability. The commitment came after the OPEC report showed Saudi output actually increased in February although this was brushed off as being for storage purposes. An extension of the output deal between OPEC and non-OPEC members remains in doubt but the inventory numbers and Saudi energy ministry comments have afforded oil the opportunity to stabilise. It's been quite an aggressive sell-off in oil since the start of last week and a correction is good for the market. The fact that this came as Brent crude closed in on the psychologically significant $50 is no real surprise.

There'll also be a close eye on the Netherlands over the next 24 hours, as the country heads to the polls and we get an idea of just how strong the populist vote has engulfed the eurozone after years of problems. The Dutch election is effectively the canary in the mine for investors as, while Geert Wilders – the eurosceptic far right leader – has led many polls, the fragmented nature of the Dutch parliament combined with the inability of Wilders to find any parties to join a coalition, makes it very unlikely that he will rule. That said, the trend of polls underestimating the populist vote – as we saw last year in the UK Brexit referendum and US Presidential election – would favour Wilders and should we see similar results today, it would cause great concern ahead of the French election over the next couple of months as Marine Le Pen actually stands a realistic chance of winning.

It's been a bit of a rollercoaster ride this morning for the UK, with the pound initially boosted by Nicola Sturgeons acknowledgement that Scotland would probably not seek to join the EU right away in the event of a vote for independence, instead suggesting they could follow a Norway-type model. This came as a number of polls suggested Scots would once again vote to remain, just as they did a couple of years ago. This would be a crushing defeat for Sturgeon and the SNP and it would appear a sudden change of tactics will be necessary if they're going to avoid the same outcome as before. The pound did take a hit today after UK jobs data showed that while the unemployment situation still looks good, wage growth is slowing which, coming at a time when inflation is headed in the other direction, doesn't bode well for the UK's consumer driven economy.

The US Federal Reserve Bank ('the Fed'), has battled to ignite inflation since the GFC and up until now it has raised rates less frequently than the markets have expected, however, this approach may soon change. Today, the Fed is almost universally expected to raise its benchmark interest rates following strong NFP, full employment and an uptick in inflation. The forecast is that the FED will hike the rates by 0.25 % and the event will be volatile as the FED hike might have already been priced in. We need to watch important camarilla levels and POC zones.

Traders should focus on POC and 2 possible breakout points. The major range of the pair is 1.0720-1.0495. As EUR/USD has been sold on rallies as I have shown on Session Recap webinar and Pre-NFP coverage, the current POC 1.0660-75 is still valid for short on rallies (H5, ATR top, X cross) towards 1.0570 - Daily camarilla L4 support. Breakout of L4 should target L5 and Weekly L5 camarilla levels 1.0545 and 1.0495. The only exception to the upside could be the break of 1.0720 towards 1.0765 and that could happen if the FED doesn't hike the rate today which would be a big surprise.

NZDUSD is looking bearish still, with current bounce being a wave four that may see slightly higher price up to 0.7000 psychological level before market resumes downward move to around 0.6840.

NZDUSD, 1H

GOLD (in USD) Bearish pause.

Gold's weakness is definitely on since the metal reached resistance given at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Expected to reach support at 1177 (11/01/2017 low). For the time being, the metal is pausing around $1200.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD) Consolidating.

Silver's selling pressures are important. Hourly support is given at 16.63 (27/01/2016 low). Expected to see continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude Oil (in USD) Selling pressures diminish around $48.

Crude oil's bearish pressures continues. The commodity has been unable to mount a serious challenge to 55.24 (03/01/2017 high) resistance. Strong support given at 49.61 (08/12/2016) has been broken. Expected to see deeper selling pressures.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/CHF Continued bearish pressures.

EUR/CHF's renewed bearish pressures continues to increase. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). Temporary surges seem the new normal for the CHF.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Continued increase.

EUR/JPY's demand has rejuvenated. Hourly resistance at 121.34 (10/02/2017 high) has been broken. Strong resistance is given at a distance at 123.31 (27/01/2017 high). Expected to show further increase.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Weakening.

EUR/GBP is pushing lower. Selling pressures increase around 0.8800. Key resistance is given at 0.8854 (15/01/2017 high). The road is wideopen for further weakness as there is no close support.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.