Sample Category Title

Dollar weakened broadly overnight and selling pressure persisted in Asia on Tuesday, with the greenback on the verge of breaking recent lows against Euro, Swiss Franc, and Aussie. The decline comes amid falling U.S. Treasury yields and growing conviction that the Fed will move toward faster easing.

With no major U.S. releases scheduled today and the Fed in blackout mode ahead of next week’s FOMC, traders are still appearing impatient. Thursday’s CPI looms large, but speculative selling has already picked up, raising the risk that Dollar’s decline becomes self-reinforcing if technical levels give way.

Whether the move extends into a broader selloff remains a key focus. A break of recent lows in multiple pairs could invite further technical selling, especially if Thursday’s CPI shows softening price momentum. While a 50bps Fed cut next week is still unlikely, markets are increasingly pricing a dovish dot plot and statement.

At the same time, Euro is struggling under its own weight. France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote on Monday, ending a turbulent nine months in office. His departure makes him the fourth prime minister to collapse under President Emmanuel Macron’s second term, highlighting the persistent instability in French politics.

France now faces yet another stretch of political drift and uncertainty. Macron must quickly find a candidate palatable enough to avoid being brought down immediately, but precedent suggests the process could drag on. This instability has weighed on Euro, particularly against the Swiss franc, with investors turning defensive.

For the week so far, Dollar sits at the bottom of performance table, followed by Loonie and Yen. Yen, however, is rebounding as Nikkei retreats from record high and falling U.S. yields offer support. At the other end, Kiwi leads, followed by Aussie and Swiss franc, with Sterling and Euro mixed in the middle.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.32%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.64%. China Shanghai SSE is down 0.61%. Singapore Strait Times is down 0.42%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down 0.004 at 1.564. Overnight, DOW rose 0.25%. S&P 500 rose 0.21%. NASDAQ rose 0.45%. 10-year yield fell -0.040 to 4.460.

Gold rally may stretch to 3765 if US 10-year yield breaks 4%

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield extended its recent slide on Monday, dropping to a five-month low. At the same time, Gold surged to another record high, reflecting strong demand for safety and conviction that inflation data due this week could steer the Fed toward faster easing.

Markets are squarely focused on the August PPI release on Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s CPI, which will be critical in shaping expectations ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Any evidence of cooling inflation risks could soften Fed hawks’ resistance to faster rate cuts. While a 50bps move in September remains unlikely, the statement and dot plot could flag a steeper path of easing.

That possibility is keeping pressure on U.S. yields. Key attention is on the 4% mark for the 10-year yield. A clean break below this psychological level could spur an even deeper slide

Technically, 10-year has already broken through 100% projection of 4.629 to 4.205 from 4.493 at 4.069, with no sign of bottoming yet. It is also pressing against the lower bound of its near-term falling channel. Sustained break there will indicate further acceleration to 138.2% projection at 3.907 next, with prospect of diving to 3.886 support. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 4.188 support turned resistance holds.

Gold, meanwhile, remains in a phase of upward re-acceleration, as indicated by 4H MACD. It's on track to 261.8% projection of 3267.90 to 3408.21 from 3311.30 at 3678.63. Overbought condition as seen in 4H RSI could limit upside there on first attempt. But break of 3579.44 support is needed to indicate temporary topping first.

Meanwhile, if the 10-year yield breaks below 4% in the coming days, Gold’s rally could extend further, eyeing 323.6% projection at 3765.34 before a peak is established. For now, both Treasuries and bullion look unstoppable, with inflation data set to determine the next leg of momentum.

Westpac: Australia consumer optimism elusive, RBA to pause in September

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropped -3.1% mom to 95.4 in September, reversing part of last month’s boost from the RBA’s third rate cut. While sentiment remains modestly above July levels and well above the April tariff-driven low, the index has slipped back into “cautiously pessimistic” territory. Westpac said outright optimism remains "elusive", with households still uneasy about the path ahead despite relief from the cost-of-living crisis.

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady at 3.6% when it meets later this month. Westpac noted recent data on inflation and demand came in "somewhat firmer than expected", reinforcing the case for caution. Policymakers are seen waiting for further confirmation that underlying trends remain benign before resuming cuts.

For now, consumer recovery looks sluggish, and Westpac expects "further easing will likely be needed" to sustain momentum. It forecasts another 25bp cut in November and two additional moves in 2026, underscoring the gradual path ahead for both sentiment and policy.

Australia NAB business survey: Confidence falls, costs ease, capacity still tight

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index slipped from 8 to 4 in August, but conditions showed improvement, rising from 5 to 7. Trading remained steady at 12, while profitability rose from 2 to 4 and employment from 2 to 5. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld said the results support the view that “the outlook for businesses continues to improve,” with both confidence and conditions now near long-run averages.

Capacity utilisation rose to 83.1% from 82.5%, staying two percentage points above its long-run norm. Capital expenditure intentions also improved, climbing from 8 to 10. Together, these suggest firms are still operating at high levels of resource use despite broader uncertainties.

At the same time, cost pressures eased further. Purchase cost growth slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, its lowest since 2021, while labour costs moderated to from 1.9% 1.5% and product price growth dipped to from 0.8% 0.6%. The survey points to an environment of resilient business activity and capacity tightness, but with inflation pressures continuing to recede.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1723; (P) 1.1745; (R1) 1.1785; More...

EUR/USD's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.1829. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.1916 projection level. On the downside, below 1.1702 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.1607 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield extended its recent slide on Monday, dropping to a five-month low. At the same time, Gold surged to another record high, reflecting strong demand for safety and conviction that inflation data due this week could steer the Fed toward faster easing.

Markets are squarely focused on the August PPI release on Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s CPI, which will be critical in shaping expectations ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Any evidence of cooling inflation risks could soften Fed hawks’ resistance to faster rate cuts. While a 50bps move in September remains unlikely, the statement and dot plot could flag a steeper path of easing.

That possibility is keeping pressure on U.S. yields. Key attention is on the 4% mark for the 10-year yield. A clean break below this psychological level could spur an even deeper slide

Technically, 10-year has already broken through 100% projection of 4.629 to 4.205 from 4.493 at 4.069, with no sign of bottoming yet. It is also pressing against the lower bound of its near-term falling channel. Sustained break there will indicate further acceleration to 138.2% projection at 3.907 next, with prospect of diving to 3.886 support. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 4.188 support turned resistance holds.

Gold, meanwhile, remains in a phase of upward re-acceleration, as indicated by 4H MACD. It's on track to 261.8% projection of 3267.90 to 3408.21 from 3311.30 at 3678.63. Overbought condition as seen in 4H RSI could limit upside there on first attempt. But break of 3579.44 support is needed to indicate temporary topping first.

Meanwhile, if the 10-year yield breaks below 4% in the coming days, Gold’s rally could extend further, eyeing 323.6% projection at 3765.34 before a peak is established. For now, both Treasuries and bullion look unstoppable, with inflation data set to determine the next leg of momentum.

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a fresh decline below the $64.20 support.
• The price traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $63.80 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold rallied further to a new all-time high above $3,640.
• Bitcoin is attempting to recover but upside might be capped near $115,000.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price failed to stay above $65.50 against the US Dollar. There was a strong bearish reaction below $65.00 and $64.00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $63.80. There was a close below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

A low was formed at $61.79 before there was a minor recovery wave. However, the bears are still active below $64.00. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $63.50 level.

The first key hurdle for the bulls could be near the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) at $64.00. A close above $64.00 might send Oil prices toward the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $66.44 swing high to the $61.79 low at $65.35.

Any more gains might call for a test of $66.50 in the near term. On the downside, the first major support sits near the $61.80 zone. The next support could be $60.50. A daily close below $60.50 could open the doors for a larger decline.

In the stated case, the bears might aim for a drop toward $58.00. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the $50.00 handle.

Looking at Gold, the bulls remained in action, and they pushed the price to a new all-time high above the $3,640 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• NFIB Business Optimism Index for Aug 2025 – Forecast 101.0, versus 100.3 previous.
• Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision.

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index slipped from 8 to 4 in August, but conditions showed improvement, rising from 5 to 7. Trading remained steady at 12, while profitability rose from 2 to 4 and employment from 2 to 5. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld said the results support the view that “the outlook for businesses continues to improve,” with both confidence and conditions now near long-run averages.

Capacity utilisation rose to 83.1% from 82.5%, staying two percentage points above its long-run norm. Capital expenditure intentions also improved, climbing from 8 to 10. Together, these suggest firms are still operating at high levels of resource use despite broader uncertainties.

At the same time, cost pressures eased further. Purchase cost growth slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, its lowest since 2021, while labour costs moderated to from 1.9% 1.5% and product price growth dipped to from 0.8% 0.6%. The survey points to an environment of resilient business activity and capacity tightness, but with inflation pressures continuing to recede.

Full Australia NAB Monthly Business Survey release here.

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropped -3.1% mom to 95.4 in September, reversing part of last month’s boost from the RBA’s third rate cut. While sentiment remains modestly above July levels and well above the April tariff-driven low, the index has slipped back into “cautiously pessimistic” territory. Westpac said outright optimism remains "elusive", with households still uneasy about the path ahead despite relief from the cost-of-living crisis.

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady at 3.6% when it meets later this month. Westpac noted recent data on inflation and demand came in "somewhat firmer than expected", reinforcing the case for caution. Policymakers are seen waiting for further confirmation that underlying trends remain benign before resuming cuts.

For now, consumer recovery looks sluggish, and Westpac expects "further easing will likely be needed" to sustain momentum. It forecasts another 25bp cut in November and two additional moves in 2026, underscoring the gradual path ahead for both sentiment and policy.

Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been moving higher at a grind since the beginning of September and is up nearly 2% over the last two days.

Friday saw a significant spike for Bitcoin in a similar manner to Gold and other US Dollar denominated assets, but in the case of Bitcoin, the gains were surrendered before the end of the day.

Whales are Offloading Coins at the Fastest Pace Since 2022

According to @caueconomy on X and on-chain data, in the last thirty days, whale reserves have fallen by more than 100,000 BTC, signaling intense risk aversion among large investors.

This selling pressure has been penalizing the price structure in the short term, ultimately pushing prices below US$108,000 last week.

At this time, we are still seeing these reductions in the portfolios of major players, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Source: CryptoQuant

The activity by whales may be concerning for market participants. Especially if institutions continue to dump holdings but this may be more clear once we see the ETF flows over the last week or so.

Bitcoin ETF Flows

The ETF flows through to Friday last week finished net positive after two strong days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Net outflows on Thursday and Friday were negative but not greater than the inflows earlier in the week.

This shows that demand still remains in the market after the recent selloff. As a further nod to confidence, ETF flows were strong in the last week of August as well.

Source: Farside Investors

Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings

Last week, two public companies, Strategy and Metaplanet, bought over $230 million worth of Bitcoin. According to their separate announcements, their combined purchase of 2,091 Bitcoins was about two-thirds (66%) of all the new Bitcoins created by miners during that time.

On September 8, Strategy announced it had bought 1,955 of those Bitcoins for $217.4 million, which was about 62% of all the coins mined that week. After this purchase, Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings reached 638,460, valued at $71.6 billion. This means the company has an estimated profit of about 51.8% on its total investment of $47.17 billion.

The company stated in a filing that it used money from its stock program, which raised capital from Strife, Strike, and MSTR stock, to fund the purchase. In 2025 alone, Strategy has raised more than $19 billion to buy Bitcoin.

Moving forward, later this week and US CPI data will have an impact on rate cut expectations for the Fed meeting next week. This could be another catalyst for Bitcoin with a weak CPI print likely to help Bitcoin continue its advance.

Technical Analysis - BTC/USD

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is hovering just below a key area of resistance at 112916.

The last two days has seen Bitcoin rise near 2%, however there are some signs that could worry bulls in the short term.

The current four-hour candle looks set to close bearish and as a inside bar which could hint at some short-term downside.

This could bring the RSI period-14 to retest the 50 neutral level and this could be used to gauge the next move for Bitcoin.

A break below the 50 level could be a sign of growing bearish momentum with a retest of recent lows at 109500 and 108000 becoming a possibility.

A bounce of the 50 level could be the precursor for a move beyond the 112916 handle before markets begin eyeing resistance at the 115000 and 117000 handles.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 8, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

All eyes are laying on one asset class in Markets: Precious Metals

The usual suspect: Gold, A.K.A. The Bullion (or just "bully" for people who are caught short).

Gold has always been a very complex asset. It does not have a face value yet it serves as store of value for many Central Banks. It cannot be eaten yet people always starve for it.

And these days, it not-only is at the center of the 2025 Trump-Administration deglobalization theme but also a good edge against every potential catalyst against positive sentiment this year:

Rate cuts? Wars? Fiscal catastrophes? Political instability (France, Japan, US, UK, ...)

Bonds haven't seen much demand since the end of the 2022 hike cycle and stocks are at all-time highs, therefore the question is more one of currency-debasing rather than a purely risk-off Market.

Metals had been stabilizing and correcting from their relative highs as war situations seemed to be resolving, central banks had cut their purchases and a signs of higher-than-projected inflation pushed the FOMC to hold their rates higher (typically negative for Gold as a non-yielding assets).

However, Markets had calmed from their higher term overbought conditions. The latest change in Powell's tone at Jackson Hole followed by an increasingly compromised FED Independence led to a massive rebound in metals, propulsed by both Gold and Silver.

Let's attack a high to intraday timeframe analysis for Gold as it keeps breaking records, and identify levels of interest.

Multi-timeframe analysis for Gold, starting from the Weekly to intraday

Gold Weekly timeframe

Gold Weekly Chart, September 2025, Source: TradingView

Taking a look back to the weekly charts really helps to see how significant this ongoing move in Gold is.

Some key levels and their significant events point to what trends or themes helped Gold to rally so much and actually find its own local tops.

The latest one, leading to a consolidation between May to end-August 2025 was due to uncertainty on the real impact of tariffs. They hadn't seemed to hurt economies yet, particularly the US and conflicts were resolving at the same time (Israel-Iran, easing conflict in Eastern Europe... This one aged like fine milk).

The current move seems to form a typical 3 legged impulsive move with the 3rd one starting most recently. Elliott Wave analysis, which is very useful to evaluate trending markets, helps to check the state of a current trend and the usual 3rd impulsive tends to be the final one.

The one question is: Where and how could it stop?

There's an infinity of potential answers but some key changes of theme would be necessary: A more restrictive US balance sheet, forcing other governments to do the same; conflicts resolving, particularly the ongoing technology cold-war between the occident (G7) and the orient (Russia, China) or more simply a re-globalization; Finally, Central Banks Independence (i.e. the FOMC) being able to reborn.

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart, 8 September 2025, Source: TradingView

There is a lot to see on this daily chart but focus on these few elements:

The technical uptrend from October 2024 into the April 22nd 2025 $3,500 top in overbought conditions led to a 4-month consolidation which took the RSI back to neutral and now, the ongoing up-trend is heading back to overbought.

Remember that overbought don't mean a top, particularly in such strong trends: A tight bull channel (no red candle closing below the prior green) shows that the current price discovery is one of bullish dominance.

Any such bear candle may attract further mean-reversion.

However, some wicks are appearing after today's bull candle as the first Fibonacci-induced targets (Yellow Zone) is getting reached.

The timing coincides with Markets needing to know if the FOMC cut will be a 25 bps (consolidation/slight selloff in Gold ceteris paribus) or a 50 bps (dovish FED = metals keep flying).

Levels of interest for Gold trading:

Support:

• $3,400 to $3,500 past ATH Zone, Now Pivot/Support
• $3,300 Major Support
• $3,000 Main psychological level

Resistance and potential technical targets (due to all-time highs, can only use potential targets):

• Current session highs and ATH $3,646
• Fibonacci-Extension 1 from April Lows to April highs ($3,640 to $3,705) (yellow square)
• Potential, Fibonacci-Extension 2 from 2018 to Oct 2024 induced target: $3,750 to $3,815 (Purple square on Weekly)

Gold 4H Chart

Gold 4H Chart, 8 September 2025, Source: TradingView

One highlight of this 4H intraday chart is to see how small reversals don't imply bigger trend reversals. Generally, longer term reversals show signs of forming and (tend to) start with a slowdown in the trend, except for a fundamental black swan.

We are however reaching a potential fib-target, which may imply some slowing in the buying in the waiting of US Inflation data – Do consider that the tight bull channel is still active.

Safe Trades!

Benefitting from a weak nonfarm payrolls report last week, recent demand for precious metals has secured a fresh yearly high for silver, trading at around $41.2708 at the time of writing.

Silver trades +0.68% higher in today's session.

Silver (XAG/USD): Key takeaways from today’s session

• With last week’s price action representing silver’s best weekly performance since early June, US labour data significantly missing expectations has further increased rate cut bets, benefitting non-yielding precious metals
• Otherwise, persistent inflation, spiralling US debt, and generalised lack of economic confidence are offering a significant tailwind to silver pricing

Silver (XAG/USD): September Fed rate cut virtually ‘nailed-on’ after poor labour data

Ending last week in spectacular fashion, August’s NFP report fell short of expectations significantly, offering some upside to silver, which ended

Coming in some 50,000 openings below consensus, at 22k, the result not only represents a worse-than-expected result, but also signifies the fourth consecutive month where job growth has been virtually flat.

While this is, quite literally, yesterday’s news, the report has all but confirmed that the Federal Reserve will cut target rates in its upcoming decision, aiming to kickstart an otherwise struggling labour market.

Notwithstanding, recent dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve has also fed into the same narrative.

CME FedWatch, 08/09/2025

At the time of writing, CME FedWatch rates a 25 bps cut at an 88.4% probability, which indicates a rare level of confidence in the Fed’s next decision.

As expected, a non-yielding asset such as silver stands to benefit from any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming more likely, as proven by price action on Friday. At least for now, upside seems to have continued somewhat into this week’s trading.

Silver (XAG/USD): Safe-haven flows and inflationary pressures still at play

While the dollar looks set to continue its downtrend, it would be fair to say markets remain wary of the US economy, in no small part thanks to questions surrounding current sovereign debt, trade agreements and inflation.

For now, these questions largely remain unanswered. This uncertainty dampens risk appetite, significantly boosting precious metal gains, a phenomenon seen for much of this year.

In the latter case, sticky inflation, at least in a vacuum, is favourable for silver pricing, with many looking to precious metals as a means of hedging inflation. While heightened inflation can sometimes be met with a rate hike, typically silver negative, a struggling labour market will almost certainly force the Fed’s hand in cutting rates this time around.

Coupled with renewed safe-haven flows on general recession fears, at least in the short term, one outcome is a two-sided tailwind helping bolster further precious metal gains - silver included.

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical analysis - 08/09/2025

Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 08/09/2025

On the daily timeframe, current price action remains well supported. If price can stay above $40.60, bulls will likely target $42.72 in the near term

EURUSD: ⬆️ Buy

• EURUSD broke resistance level 1.1720
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1835

EURUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance level 1.1720 (which is the upper border of the narrow sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from the start of August).

The breakout of this sideways price range should accelerate the active impulse wave (3) from the end of last month.

Given the clear daily uptrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 1.1835 (former multi-month high from July).