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WTI oil kept firm tone and rose to new multi-week high on Monday, in extension of Friday’s 2.5% advance.

Prevailing positive sentiment on growing hopes for a deal in US-China trade talks and subsequent rise in oil demand continues to inflate oil prices.

The contract was up 5.7% last week, with Friday’s close above significant technical barriers at $63.69/64.12 (50% retracement of $72.27/$55.12 / daily cloud c top), generating fresh bullish signals.

Predominantly bullish daily studies contribute to positive near term outlook, but overbought conditions warning that bulls may pause for consolidation before accelerating again.

Immediate target lays at $65.00 (psychological), followed by $65.72 (Fibo 61.8%), with cloud top (currently at $63.69) to ideally contain dips and keep near term bias with bulls.

Caution on dip and close within daily cloud, with stronger bearish signal to be expected on break of daily Tenkan-sen ($62.47).

Res: 65.09; 65.72; 66.00; 66.43.
Sup: 63.69; 62.80; 62.47; 62.00.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3494; (P) 1.3540; (R1) 1.3571; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.3414 support holds. Above 1.3615 will target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.3414 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 1.3138 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2913) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8191; (P) 0.8220; (R1) 0.8248; More….

Outlook in USD/CHF is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 0.8038 are seen as a corrective pattern to decline from 0.9200. While fall from 0.8475 might extend lower, downside should be contained by 0.8038 to bring rebound. Break of 0.8436 resistance will suggest that it's already in the third leg of the correction, and target 0.8475.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8696) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.77; (P) 144.43; (R1) 145.50; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 146.27 resistance will argue that price actions from 148.64 has completed as a corrective pattern. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 148.64 resistance and above to resume the rebound from 139.87 low. However, firm break of 142.10 will bring retest of 139.87 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1409; (R1) 1.1445; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.

The cautious optimism in Asia failed to spill into European markets, as investors turned cautious ahead of today's US-China trade talks in London. While no one expects a sweeping resolution to the broader trade conflict, hopes are centered on incremental progress—particularly around rare earths.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council, struck a pragmatic tone in his remarks today, emphasizing the goal of securing tangible commitments from China on resuming critical mineral exports. Hassett stated that the meeting's purpose was to verify China's seriousness, aiming for "a short meeting with a big, strong handshake." He added that a mutual agreement could result in immediate easing of US export controls, clearing the path for further negotiations.

Meanwhile, parallel trade efforts are underway between the US and Japan. Japan’s top trade envoy, Ryosei Akazawa, is reportedly planning his fourth US trip in as many weeks to engage in a sixth round of ministerial talks. While the discussions are said to be progressing, Akazawa conceded that the two sides have yet to reach a consensus. The urgency is growing ahead of the upcoming G7 summit in Canada, where a leaders’ meeting between the US and Japan may be on the agenda.

In currency markets, Kiwi is leading gains today, followed by Aussie and Japanese Yen. On the other end, Swiss Franc is the weakest performer, trailed by Dollar and Euro. Sterling and Loonie are mixed in the middle.

On the metals front, a divergence is forming between Gold and Silver. Gold is continuing its retreat, while Silver remains on a firm upward path. Technically, further rise in Silver is expected as long as 34.40 support holds, with focus on 100% projection of 28.28 to 33.66 from 31.65 at 37.03. Decisive break there could prompt further acceleration to 161.8% projection at 40.35.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.24%. DAX is down -0.77% CAC is down -0.35%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.013 at 4.666. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.01 at 2.589. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.92%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.63%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.43%. FTSE rose 0.05%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.019 to 1.479.

ECB Kazimir: Likely at end of cuts, eyes summer data for fine-tuning

Slovak ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir signaled a possible end to the current easing cycle, writing in an opinion piece today that "we're nearly done with, if not already at the end of, the easing cycle."

While acknowledging the potential for weaker-than-expected economic growth in the eurozone, Kazimir emphasized the importance of staying focused on inflation to, which he warned could surprise to the upside.

Looking ahead, Kazimir stressed the need for flexibility, noting that "incoming data throughout the summer will provide a clearer picture and guide our decisions on whether further fine-tuning is needed."

China's CPI falls -0.1% yoy in May, negative for fourth month

China’s headline CPI stayed in negative territory for the fourth consecutive month in May, coming in at -0.1% yoy, slightly better than the expected -0.2% yoy.

The persistent softness in overall inflation was largely driven by a sharp -6.1% yoy decline in energy prices, which alone shaved off nearly half a percentage point from the annual CPI reading.

On a monthly basis, CPI fell -0.2% mom, with energy again dragging down the figure through a -1.7% mom decline.

In contrast, core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, rose to 0.6% yoy, the highest level since January.

Producer price pressures continue to weaken further, with PPI dropping to -3.3% yoy from -2.7% yoy previously, marking the deepest contraction in nearly two years. Wholesale prices have now been stuck in deflation since October 2022.

China’s trade surplus widens to USD 103.2B in May, US exports slump -34.5% yoy

China’s trade surplus widened to USD 103.2B in May, exceeding expectations of USD 101.3, even as headline export and import figures undershot forecasts. Exports rose 4.8% yoy, just shy of the 5.0% yoy consensus. Imports fell -3.4% yoy, a sharper drop than the anticipated -0.9% yoy.

Exports to the US plunged -34.5% yoy, highlighting the entrenched trade tensions despite Washington’s partial tariff rollback in April. However, the impact was cushioned by robust growth in exports to ASEAN (15% yoy), the European Union (12% yoy), and Africa (33% yoy).

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1409; (R1) 1.1445; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.

Hello traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of GBPUSD forex pair published in members area of the website. The pair recently delivered an intraday pullback and, as anticipated, attracted buyers precisely at the Equal Legs area. In the analysis below, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave count and highlight the key target zones for the next leg higher.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.06.2025

GBP/USD is currently forming an intraday three-wave pullback from recent highs. Our members understand how to identify potential reversal zones using the Equal Legs technique: a related to b red . So, in this case, the ideal support area lies between 1.3532 and 1.3500. While additional near-term downside remains possible, as long as price stays within this zone, we expect buyers to emerge and continuation of the bullish trend to resume.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.06.2025

The pair has found buyers in the marked area, as expected. GBPUSD has since staged a solid rally from this support area. At this point, we do not recommend initiating short positions. The key short-term support level to watch is 1.35069—maintaining price above this level supports the case for the next upward leg. While above the mentioned low, the pair can see extension toward 1.3708 area. To confirm the continuation of the rally, we want to see a decisive break above the previous (i) blue peak.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURUSD forex pair published in members area of the website. As our members know, we are enjoying profitss in long positions the pair . The pair has recently given us intraday pull back and found buyers again precisely at the equal legs area as we expected. In the following text, we’ll explain the Elliott Wave count and present target areas.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.06.2025

EURUSD is currently developing an intraday three-wave pullback from recent highs. Our members know how to identify potential reversal zones using the Equal Legs technique — in this case, the ideal support area comes in at 1.13912–1.13505. The pair can see more downside in near term. As long as price holds within this region, we expect buyers to step in and the broader rally to resume.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.06.2025

The pair has reached our target area and found buyers as expected. EURUSD made decent rally from the buyers zone. We do not recommend selling the pair at this stage. 1.13725 is the key low for proposed short term view. While above that low, next leg up can be in progress. We would like to see break above ((i)) peak to confirm next leg up is in progress, targeting 1.1657 area.

Gold price edged higher from new over one-week low in early European trading, after it cracked strong supports at $3300 zone (psychological/daily Kijun-sen / daily cloud top), but faced headwinds here.

Bouncing after heavy losses (gold price was down around $100 in past two sessions) is a logical reaction, but the length of the recovery is under big question mark, due to mixed signals from both technical and geopolitical factors.

Daily studies show continuous weakening of positive momentum, but daily cloud (top at $3280 and reinforced by daily Kijun-sen) is expected to continue underpinning the action as long as the price holds above this zone.

On the other hand, situation on macroeconomic and geopolitical front is mixed, as today’s US – China trade talks boost optimism that the major trade war could be avoided and negative consequences significantly reduced, but further escalation in war in Ukraine and persistently heated situation in Gaza, threaten to offset positive impact.

Fresh recovery tested initial barrier at $3324 (daily Tenkan-sen), with sustained break here seen as minimum requirement to keep positive bias for further gains and test of upper pivot at $3348 (50% retracement of $3403/$3293 bear-leg).

Otherwise, the downside would remain very vulnerable, with violation of $3300/$3280 zone would further weaken near-term structure and risk drop towards $3245 (May 29 higher low) and $3200 (psychological).

Res: 3335; 3348; 3361; 3377.
Sup: 3295; 3280; 3245; 3200.

EUR/USD opened the week steady, trading near 1.1418, as markets brace for a series of key economic reports and political developments.

Markets eye trade talks and macro indicators

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the US-China trade meeting, set to take place in London today, following President Donald Trump’s announcement last week. Hopes for progress in trade negotiations are helping stabilise the market mood.

On the economic front, a heavy data calendar lies ahead. Markets are closely watching the release of several US macroeconomic indicators:

•  Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday
•  Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday

These reports are expected to provide clearer insights into the effects of tariffs on inflation and the overall direction of the US economy.

Last Friday, the US dollar gained strength following an upbeat employment report for May, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth. However, the broader picture remains mixed, with recent readings on private employment, unemployment claims, and the services PMI pointing to ongoing economic fragility.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has reached the growth wave target at 1.1494. A correction phase is currently unfolding, with the first target at 1.1365. After touching this level, a rebound to 1.1438 is possible. This could be followed by a new downward wave towards 1.1275, with a longer-term prospect of a decline to 1.1210. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing sharply downwards, indicating a shift towards bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed the first downward wave, reaching a local target at 1.1372. A corrective bounce to 1.1438 (a test from below) is now on the radar. This move will determine whether EUR/USD resumes its upward correction or extends its decline.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is entering a critical week, with US economic data and trade talks in the spotlight. A corrective move to 1.1438 appears likely in the short term, but further downside towards 1.1365, 1.1275, and 1.1210 remains on the table depending on data outcomes and broader risk sentiment. Technical indicators suggest a shift in momentum, with consolidation and correction likely before the next directional move.