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Trading at ~$36.72 per troy ounce, silver currently trades at levels last seen in early 2012. Up by over 9% in last week’s trading, global monetary policy expectations, a strong demand outlook, and continued safe-haven demand continue to benefit bullion pricing.

Silver (XAG/USD): Key Takeaways

• Consolidating in today’s session, silver continued to rally in yesterday’s session, achieving 13-year highs of around ~$36.90.
• While most predict rates will remain unchanged in the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision, monetary easing outside of the United States in the EU and UK is adding to silver upside.
• While safe-haven demand remains a significant contributing factor to precious metal performance, a strong outlook on demand and a weaker dollar continue to boost precious metal pricing.

Silver (XAG/USD): Silver gains on monetary policy expectations

Despite the best efforts of a hawkish Fed, key interest rates are generally trending downward, with the ECB and BoE cutting in their most recent decisions. As a non-yielding asset, lower rates typically favour precious metals like silver, adding rationale to the recent rally.

Undeniably, the burning question remains when the Federal Reserve will join this trend, with fabled interest rate cuts always coming but never seeming to arrive.

CME FedWatch, CME Group 10/06/2024

Boasting unexpectedly robust jobs data in May, most predict rates will remain unchanged in their upcoming June 18th meeting, which will likely further sour relations between President Trump and Jerome Powell, with Trump recently renewing demands for lower rates, this time by a whole percentage point.

With current US labor market data somewhat vindicating current Fed policy, eyes now turn to upcoming inflation data later this week:

• Wednesday June 11th, US Consumer Price Index (CPI), 08:30 EDT
• Thursday June 12th, US Produce Price Index (PPI), 08:30 EDT

Any suggestion that inflation is continuing to cool, especially in light of recent tariffs, will increase rate cut bets, paving the way for further silver upside.

Silver (XAG/USD): Supply and demand dynamics bolster silver pricing

Fundamental to a gradual increase in precious metal pricing, global supply and demand dynamics underpin recent silver price performance.

With record industrial demand in 2024, and projected to reach new highs this year, demand for silver is expected to outweigh supply for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Silver supply & demand, The Silver Institute, 10/06/2025

This dynamic inherently bolsters pricing, especially when considering silver as a hedge against inflation.

Silver (XAGUSD) Technical analysis:

A chart showing the recent price action of XAGUSD. OANDA,TradingView, 10/06/2025

• For the first time since October 2024, the 14-day RSI rates current silver price action as ‘overbought’, suggesting a short-term retracement is likely before further upside can be achieved.
• All major moving averages, including the 10, 21, and 50-day, currently show a bullish directional bias, suggesting price is trending upwards in both the short and long term.
• If price can stabilise and stage a move higher, bulls will first look to break $37, with some resistance expected around ~$37.10.

Growing optimism about a trade deal between the US and China that would ease tensions, boost economic growth and consequently boost demand, continues to lift oil prices.

WTI contract rose to the highest in over two months on Tuesday, extending the latest bull-leg into fourth straight day.

Fresh advance cracked important Fibo barrier at $65.58 (61.8% retracement of $72.27/$54.77 fall), after generating bullish signals on break above daily cloud and former recovery top of Apr 23 ($64.85).

Bulls hold grip and eye next target at $66.20 (100DMA), but strongly overbought stochastic (although still not showing signs of fatigue) generates initial warning that bulls may soon run out of steam.

Consolidation or shallow dips should be likely scenario in current situation when positive comments about the outcome of trade talks boost expectations for a good deal between two largest world economies and top oil consumers.

Extended dips should stay above daily cloud top ($64.12) to keep bulls intact for further advance.

Res: 65.76; 66.20; 66.88; 67.66.
Sup: 65.13; 64.85; 64.12; 63.52.

The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index increased by 3 points to 98.8 in May, coming in slightly above its long-term average of 98. The May increase marked the first improvement of the year. The uncertainty subindex rose 2 points to 94.

Seven out of ten subcomponents improved on the month, two deteriorated and one remained unchanged. Large increases were reported in expectations about an improvement in the economy (up 10 points to 25%) and higher real sales (up 11 points to 20%). Notable improvements were also recorded in current inventory (up 7 points to 1%), plans to increase inventories (up 3 points to -1%) and plans to make capital outlays (up 4 points to 22%).

Labor market indicators were mixed. The net share of businesses planning to increase employment fell 1 point to 12%, while the share of firms with unfilled job openings remained unchanged at 34%. Quality of labor concerns fell 3 points to 16%. Instead, the top business problem were taxes (up 2 points to 18%).

The net share of firms increasing employee compensation fell a sharp 7 points to 26% – the lowest level since early 2021. Meanwhile, the net share 'planning' to raise wages in the months ahead rose 3 points 20%. The share of businesses raising average selling prices held steady at 25%, while the share of those 'planning' to raise average selling prices ahead rose 3 points to 31%.

Key Implications

Small business confidence improved moderately in May, rising a hair above its long-term average. While uncertainty remained elevated, as indicated by the corresponding subindex, a mid-May de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade skirmish is likely to have helped reduce concerns among small businesses, contributing to an improved view about the economy, future sales performance, and inventory levels.

Parsing through the details of the report, some easing in the labor market indicators is also visible. For a few years now, inflation and quality of labor concerns have competed head-to-head for the 'top business problem' spot, but as these concerns have subsided, taxes have vaulted into first place. Easing quality of labor concerns, together with subdued small business hiring plans and job openings at a post-pandemic low, are added signs that the labor market is slowly cooling.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3514; (P) 1.3547; (R1) 1.3586; More...

While GBP/USD dips notably today, downside is contained well above 1.3414 support so far. Intraday bias stays neutral and further rally remains in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3615 will resume the rally from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.3414 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 1.3138 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2913) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1392; (P) 1.1415; (R1) 1.1444; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8197; (P) 0.8213; (R1) 0.8234; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Price actions from 0.8038 are seen as a corrective pattern to decline from 0.9200. While fall from 0.8475 might extend lower, downside should be contained by 0.8038 to bring rebound. Break of 0.8436 resistance will suggest that it's already in the third leg of the correction, and target 0.8475.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8696) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.06; (P) 144.51; (R1) 145.04; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 146.27 resistance will argue that price actions from 148.64 has completed as a corrective pattern. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 148.64 resistance and above to resume the rebound from 139.87 low. However, firm break of 142.10 will bring retest of 139.87 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8419; (P) 0.8424; (R1) 0.8433; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from resumed by breaking through 0.8448 resistance, and intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Strong resistance could be seen from 0.8500 to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, break of 0.8413 support will bring retest of 0.8354 low. However, firm break of 0.8500 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8591 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

Sterling is sold off notably today after dismal UK labor market data intensified expectations of a BoE rate cut in August. The most striking element was the -109k drop in payrolled employment—the largest non-pandemic decline since records began in 2014—coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level since mid-2023.

While wage growth remains elevated, its slowdown reinforces the view that inflationary pressures are easing. With signs that labour market cooling is gaining momentum, markets are increasingly pricing in not just an August rate cut, but a follow-up move in November. Traders will, however, closely monitor Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal statement tomorrow, which may influence expectations depending on the scale and orientation of policy shifts.

Elsewhere, markets are also eyeing the second day of US-China trade talks in London. Ahead of the meeting, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that he expected a full day meeting today, while the negotiations are "going well". Both sides are expected to issue updates later in the day.

Overall in the currency markets, Sterling is currently the worst performer, followed by Swiss Franc, and then Dollar. Loonie is the best, followed by Aussie, and then Euro. Yen and Aussie are positioning in the middle.

Technically, focus is now on 1.1045 support in GBP/CHF with today's dip. Firm break there will complete a head and shoulder top pattern, which suggest that rise from 1.0610 has completed, at 1.1200. Deeper decline should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0610 to 1.1200 at 1.0975, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 1.0835.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.53%. DAX is down -0.40%. CAC is up 0.01%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.094 at 4.543. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.035 at 2.535. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.32%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.08%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.44%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.06%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.002 to 1.480.

ECB's Villeroy: Favorable 2 and 2 zone is not static

French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a conference today that ECB is now in a favorable "2 and 2 zone. That means, inflation is forecast at 2% this year, while deposit rate is also at 2%.

Nevertheless, he warned that with current uncertainties, this zone "does not mean a comfortable zone or a static zone". "We will remain pragmatic and data-driven, and as agile as necessary," Villeroy added.

Separately, Finnish ECB policymaker Olli Rehn warned that as inflation is projected to stay below 2% this year, the central must be mind of "not slipping towards the zero lower bound."

“We must not grow overconfident — instead we must stay vigilant and monitor the risks in both directions,” Rehn said. “The ECB team must remain alert and ready to act with agility as and if needed.”

Eurozone Sentix surges back into positive territory, recession fears recede

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone turned notably upbeat in June, as Sentix Investor Confidence index climbed from -8.1 to +0.2—its first positive reading since June 2024 and well above expectations of -6. Current Situation Index also improved markedly from -19.3 to -13.0, while Expectations Index jumped from 3.8 to 14.3.

Germany led the improvement, with its overall Sentix index rising to -5.9, the highest since March 2022. Expectations climbed by 12 points to 17.5, while current conditions advanced for the fourth consecutive month to -26.8.

According to Sentix, fears of a recession triggered by the US tariff shock in April have largely dissipated, and the economic outlook for the Eurozone is now tilted toward a cyclical upswing.

With economic momentum building and the Sentix inflation barometer showing signs of easing price pressures, ECB may view its policy as being in a “comfort zone.” While another rate cut isn’t off the table, any such move could be delayed if the upswing continues to solidify over the summer.

UK labor market softens as unemployment rises to 4.6% and wage growth slows

UK labor market data released today point to gradual cooling. In May, payrolled employment dropped by -109k, or -0.4% mom. Claimant count rose sharply by 33.1k, well above the expected 4.5k increase. Wage pressures are also easing, with median monthly pay rising by 5.8% yoy, down from 6.2% previously, though still within a relatively tight band seen this year.

For the three months to April, unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% as expected, while both average earnings measures came in softer than forecast. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose 5.2% yoy, and total pay increased 5.3% yoy, both under the 5.5% consensus.

BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms gradual tightening path, cites limited room for rate cuts

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated to parliament today that interest rate hikes will continue, though cautiously, once the central bank gains "more conviction that underlying inflation will approach 2% or hover around that level".

Ueda explained that BoJ still maintains negative real interest rates to support inflation momentum and ensure price growth remains both stable and sustained.

However, Ueda also flagged a significant limitation in policy space should economic conditions deteriorate. With the short-term policy rate still only at 0.5%, the BoJ has "limited room" to cut rates in response to any sharp downturn in growth.

Australia's Westpac consumer sentiment edges higher as rate cuts clash with growth worries

Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment index rose a modest 0.5% mom in June to 92.6, reflecting a population still mired in what Westpac called a “holding pattern of cautious pessimism.”

The data reveal "two clear opposing forces" shaping household attitudes: easing inflation and RBA’s May rate cut have improved perceptions around major purchases. On the other hand, sluggish domestic growth and global trade uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on expectations.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the RBA’s next meeting on July 7–8. With economic data remaining mixed and labor market tightness still evident, Westpac expects the central bank to proceed with caution and keep the cash rate on hold. Nonetheless, a fresh round of economic projections in August could pave the way for another 25 basis point cut, as RBA recalibrates its stance amid still-sluggish growth.

Australia’s NAB business confidence lifts to 2, but employment conditions erode

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index turned positive in May, rising from -1 to 2. However, the improvement in confidence was not matched by underlying business conditions, which weakened further. Business Conditions index slipped from 2 to 0, with trading conditions dipping slightly from 6 to 5, profitability remaining in the red at -4, and employment conditions dropping from 4 to 0 — all pointing to a stagnating environment.

On the inflation front, cost indicators presented a mixed picture. Labor cost growth remained firm at a quarterly equivalent pace of 1.7%. Purchase cost and final product price growth eased to 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Retail price growth held steady at 1.2%, suggesting persistent margin pressures.

NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld emphasized that business conditions are still weak and warned that continued softness could cap any recovery in confidence. She also flagged the labor market as a key area to monitor, with the employment index now below average.

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8419; (P) 0.8424; (R1) 0.8433; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from resumed by breaking through 0.8448 resistance, and intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Strong resistance could be seen from 0.8500 to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, break of 0.8413 support will bring retest of 0.8354 low. However, firm break of 0.8500 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8591 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a conference today that ECB is now in a favorable "2 and 2 zone. That means, inflation is forecast at 2% this year, while deposit rate is also at 2%.

Nevertheless, he warned that with current uncertainties, this zone "does not mean a comfortable zone or a static zone". "We will remain pragmatic and data-driven, and as agile as necessary," Villeroy added.

Separately, Finnish ECB policymaker Olli Rehn warned that as inflation is projected to stay below 2% this year, the central must be mind of "not slipping towards the zero lower bound."

“We must not grow overconfident — instead we must stay vigilant and monitor the risks in both directions,” Rehn said. “The ECB team must remain alert and ready to act with agility as and if needed.”