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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9375; (P) 0.9390; (R1) 0.9417; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.9419 resistance will argue that the rise from 0.9218, either as a correction to fall from 0.9660, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204, is ready to resume through 0.9445. Nevertheless, on the downside, firm break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9527) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6450 and 0.6500 levels. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.6080.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar rebounded after forming a base above the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6510 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.6030 zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6030 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6450 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6500 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6500 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6535 zone. A high was formed near 0.6533 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase.

There was a move below the 0.6520 level. The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6489 swing low to the 0.6533 high.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6510 level. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6510. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6489 swing low to the 0.6533 high.

The next major support is near the 0.6480 zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.6480 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6450 level.

Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6420. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6535. The first major resistance might be 0.6550. An upside break above the 0.6580 resistance might send the pair further higher.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6600 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6650 resistance zone.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a steady increase from the 0.5990 zone. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.6020 resistance to start the recent increase against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 0.6030 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the 0.6065 zone and is currently consolidating gains. The pair corrected lower below the 0.6050 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6006 swing low to the 0.6064 high.

However, the bulls are active above the 0.6030 level. The NZD/USD chartsuggests that the RSI is stable near 50. On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.6065. The next major resistance is near the 0.6080 level.

A clear move above the 0.6080 level might even push the pair toward the 0.6120 level. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6200 resistance zone in the coming days.

On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.6030 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6030. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6006 swing low to the 0.6064 high.

The first key support is near the 0.6005 level. The next major support is near the 0.5990 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.5990 support, the pair might slide toward the 0.5970 support. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD in a bearish zone to 0.5950.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1383; (P) 1.1415; (R1) 1.1458; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.44; (P) 144.86; (R1) 145.33; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral. On the upside, above 146.27 resistance will argue that price actions from 148.64 has completed as a corrective pattern. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 148.64 resistance and above to resume the rebound from 139.87 low. However, firm break of 142.10 will bring retest of 139.87 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3444; (P) 1.3510; (R1) 1.3563; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.3414 support intact, further rally remains in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3615 will resume the rally from 1.2099 and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.3414 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 1.3138 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2913) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8197; (P) 0.8213; (R1) 0.8234; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 0.8038 are seen as a corrective pattern to decline from 0.9200. While fall from 0.8475 might extend lower, downside should be contained by 0.8038 to bring rebound. Break of 0.8436 resistance will suggest that it's already in the third leg of the correction, and target 0.8475.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8696) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6497; (P) 0.6515; (R1) 0.6540; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen below 0.6538, but even in case of another dip, further rise is in favor as long as 0.6406 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6536 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6406 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6536 at 0.6298.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.5913 at a later stage.

Markets

The US and China agreed to restore the Geneva trade truce after a two‐day trade talk marathon in London. Both sides accused each other of violating the terms in recent days but have now found common ground. The news broke overnight and after US trading hours. Asian stock markets welcome the news but only cautiously. US equity futures appear to take it with a grain of salt although we should add that the likes of the S&P 500 have never really retraced on the trade matter when things escalated again. Either way it shows that markets are done with headline‐based trading and instead wait for actual results. And trade negotiations between the two largest economies of the world have merely just begun. The stoic dollar reaction is telling the same story. EUR/USD holds on to above 1.14, a level around it has been oscillating for all of June so far. DXY kept steady nearby 99. One of the largest FX moves were reserved for the pound. EUR/GBP shot up from as low as 0.8417 to 0.846. The trigger was a decent but slightly below‐consensus labour market report. Wages grew less than expected and a first, preliminary gauge for May showed employment shrunk the most since the pandemic erupted in 2020 (‐109k). Our feeling, however, is that this figure that’s subject to heavy revisions was more of a good excuse for GBP profit‐taking rather than anything else. US Treasuries traded mixed across the curve. The front underperformed (+1.6 bps). The 3‐yr $58bn auction tailed slightly but left no material traces. The onus remains on tonight’s 10‐yr and especially tomorrow’s 30‐yr sale. Longer maturities shed up to 1.3 bps. German bunds outperformed with net daily changes varying between ‐1.7 and ‐4.4 bps in a bull flattener.

Today’s economic calendar centers around US CPI. Consensus expects the headline reading to rise by 0.2% m/m and accelerate to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%. The core gauge should add 0.3% m/m to 2.9% y/y. It will be interesting to see a potential first impact of the trade tariffs, in particular on goods inflation. But that won’t change the Fed’s policy decision of next week. If anything, after Friday’s payrolls it will only make the job (at least from a communication point of view) easier: a resilient labour market, an economy not derailing so far and inflation above target with risks tilted to the upside means sticking to the sidelines for the time being. Current US money market pricing implies a Fed rate cut by October at the earliest. We find that reasonable given the circumstances. Barring major CPI surprises, the front end of the curve probably won’t budge much. The long end is eying tonight’s bond auction while the US dollar is stuck in directionless, sideways trading.

News and views

In an interview with Bloomberg yesterday, the Governor of the Czech national Bank (CNB), Alex Michl indicated that the CNB needs to keep its policy rate at the current level (3.5%) for some time. The CNB governor elaborated that the country still needs a high and positive real interest rate to keep inflation low in the longer term. The CNB in May after a pause further reduced its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.5%. Michl’s comments come after May inflation at 0.5% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y (up from 1.8% Y/Y in April) printed slightly higher than expected. In this respect, the CNB yesterday in a monthly comment on its website, analyzed that the rebound in May was expected and mainly due to higher volatile food prices. The outcome stays close to CNB spring forecasts. At the same time, the CNB indicates that inflation is not yet stabilized and requires a cautious monetary policy. Especially core inflation increased to 2.8% and will stay close to this level in the months ahead. This reflects the cost of owner‐occupied housing, which is accelerating due to strong house price growth. As a result, market services inflation remains elevated (4.6%), even though there are signs of a slight slowdown in the growth of other services prices (in restaurants, for example). The Czech koruna is well bid of late and trades near the strongest levels since June year (EUR/CZK 24.75 area).

Brazilian inflation in May eased slightly more than expected to 0.26% M/M and 5.32% Y/Y (from 0.43% M/M and 5.53% Y/Y in April). The slowdown was mainly driven by a slower rise in food prices (0.17%), lower transportations costs (‐0.37%) and a decline in prices of household goods (‐0.27%). On the other hand, higher electricity prices accelerated housing costs (1.19%). Even so, inflation still surpasses the central bank’s target (3.0% +/‐ 1.5%). The bank raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 14.75% at the May meeting and vowed a data‐dependent and flexible approach. The central bank meets next week. Even after the May inflation easing the debate remains open whether it will be enough for the bank to pause its tightening cycle or raise rates further.

Trade headlines are striking an optimistic tone this week. According to Bloomberg, US and Chinese officials have agreed to a plan ‘to ease trade tensions,’ a move that could revive the flow of sensitive goods between the world’s two largest economies. Meanwhile, the US and Mexico appear close to finalising a deal that would lift the 50% tariffs on steel imports.

Risk sentiment across Asian markets is broadly positive. The Chinese CSI 300 is up 0.82% as of this writing, while the Hang Seng has gained 0.95%. US equities also closed higher yesterday, with Big Tech leading the advance on hopes that a trade deal could unlock the flow of rare earth metals.

Zooming in, Nvidia rose nearly 1% following news that TSMC’s May sales jumped 40%. Energy stocks rallied 1.8% as U.S. crude briefly tested a confluence of key technical levels — the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the year-to-date decline and the 100-day moving average. However, oil failed to close above that threshold. This morning, WTI is hovering near $65 per barrel, with sentiment supported by an apparent narrowing of supply–demand imbalances.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday projected that U.S. oil production has likely peaked and could fall to 13.37 million barrels per day next year — down 120,000 barrels from its May estimate. The agency also trimmed its global oil demand forecast, now expecting an increase of 800,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 1 million. However, demand projections may improve if trade tensions ease further.

Still, weaker US output is just one part of the global picture. OPEC+ supply increases, and the EIA expects global inventories to build by roughly 800,000 barrels per day. Add in the macro drag from trade-related uncertainty, and it’s unlikely we’ll see oil prices rally without restraint. Whether oil bulls can reverse the year-to-date slide may hinge on breaking through the critical $65.35/barrel level — the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Sustained optimism on trade will be key to validating a medium-term bullish reversal.

That said, US and European equity futures are modestly lower this morning, likely reflecting some disappointment over the lack of concrete detail in trade negotiations. Officials are now expected to present the proposals to their respective presidents.

In the meantime, international institutions are adjusting their growth outlooks. Following last week’s OECD downgrade, the World Bank cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3% (down from 2.7% in January), citing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. That would mark the slowest pace of growth in 17 years, excluding crisis periods like the GFC and COVID.

Meanwhile, Citigroup is reportedly preparing to set aside several hundred million dollars more than last quarter to cover potential loan losses — an early indication that large U.S. banks may be bracing for a more challenging macro environment.

Weakening business and consumer sentiment — compounded by potential disruptions to global trade routes — could drag on economic activity and growth. Yet, equity markets remain near record highs, seemingly disconnected from these risks.

Interestingly, institutional exposure remains light. According to Deutsche Bank, equity positioning has only been lower 23% of the time since 2010. That suggests the recent rally may be driven largely by retail demand, which could explain the divergence between price action and fundamentals.

Still, equity bulls may need a solid narrative to push major U.S. indices to — and beyond — fresh all-time highs. The S&P 500 is currently less than 2% below its February peak, and the Nasdaq 100 is just 1.3% away from its own record. Small- and mid-cap stocks are rebounding more slowly, as rate cut expectations have been dialed back due to resilient U.S. labour data and upward inflation pressures tied to tariffs.

Today’s US CPI report will be key. Core inflation is expected to accelerate to its highest monthly pace this year. A hot print could dampen dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, push the US 2-year yield further above 4%, and weigh on equity sentiment. A cooler reading, however, may reignite rate cut hopes and support valuations.

In FX, the U.S. dollar is firmer in Asia, underpinned by positive trade news. The EURUSD is trading just below 1.14, while Cable slipped under 1.35 ahead of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget announcements.

The UK jobs data released yesterday was grim: more than 250,000 jobs have been lost since October’s budget announcement. Higher taxes are weighing on employment and sustaining inflationary pressure, complicating the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook. Still, markets are increasingly pricing in rate cuts amid signs of further weakness.

Despite that, the FTSE 100 remains near all-time highs. With limited exposure to the domestic economy and strong representation from energy and financials, the index may continue to benefit from softer BoE expectations and supportive global headlines — even if the domestic backdrop darkens.

In focus today

The most important data release today will be the US May CPI. We forecast headline inflation at +0.2% m/m SA (2.5% y/y) and core inflation at +0.2% m/m SA (2.9% y/y) - slightly below consensus on the latter. We expect firms to gradually pass through the rising tariff costs to core goods and food prices, but also that services inflation will continue to moderate.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

US and China finished two days of trade talks in London last night agreeing on a framework for implementing the consensus reached between the two countries' leaders. The framework will have to be approved by US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping. There were no details on what was in the framework, but US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that they expect that the topic of rare earth minerals will be resolved in the framework implementation. Probably today or tomorrow we will get more details if the two presidents approve it, which seems likely. Chinese negotiators stated that "we hope the progress made will be conducive to building trust". The talks are seen as positive for markets in the short term, but we know from previous trade talks that the good mood can fade quickly between the two sides. It will be key for China in the short term that the US does not implement new tech restrictions.

What happened yesterday

In euro area, investor confidence saw an upswing as the Sentix Investor Confidence Indicator rose to 0.2 in June, marking the highest level in a year. Consensus had expected an increase to -5.5 from -8.1 in May, making this a notably positive surprise. Despite the on-going trade uncertainty investor confidence has thus rebounded and is now higher than the before Trump's "liberation day" according to Sentix.

In Denmark, inflation in May remained relatively stable, increasing to 1.6% y/y from 1.5%. Food prices surged by 1.7%, resulting in an annual food inflation rate of 5.2%. Core inflation remains subdued, aligning well with our updated forecast from last week, where we expect annual inflation to be 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Inflation remains below the 2% target, underlining that despite a robust labour market and substantial wage increases domestically, the underlying price pressure is well-managed.

In Sweden, the Riksbank's business survey highlights a worsening outlook as businesses grow more pessimistic about economic development. Rising trade tensions and global uncertainty are dampening demand expectations, particularly in manufacturing and construction, while retail shows some resilience. April's activity showed improvement, with the GDP indicator rising by 0.4% m/m, despite its usual unreliability. Moreover, the consumption indicator increased by 0.5% m/m, supporting our forecast that private consumption is regaining strength. Despite a 6.3% m/m decline in industrial orders, the overall outlook remains positive.

In Norway, core inflation for May came in lower than expected at 2.8% ý/y. Norges Bank had projected 3.1% y/y while consensus was for a 2.9% y/y print. As anticipated, food prices moved higher whereas transportation costs decreased following Easter-related impact in April's figures. Apart from these adjustments, there were only minor surprises, the most notable being a slowdown in rent inflation from 3.9% y/y to 3.6% y/y.

Equities: Equity markets edged higher yesterday in a slow and cautious grind. Most notable was the unusual sector dynamic beneath the surface: despite the broader risk-on tone and steadily declining volatility, defensive sectors outperformed. Or rather financials and industrials came under pressure - with banks being the worst performing industry group in Europe - even as yields moved broadly sideways. More broadly, cross-asset volatility remained subdued throughout Tuesday's session, even in the face of a string of moderately market-relevant data prints and ongoing trade discussions between the US and China held in the UK. The lack of reaction across equities, rates, FX, and commodities speaks to a market in wait-and-see mode, with positioning increasingly skewed toward complacency. In the US yesterday, Dow +0.3%, S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 +0.6%. This morning, Asian markets are higher while futures in both Europe and the US are marginally lower.

FI & FX: Treasuries and the USD little changed on the news coming out after the trade negotiations between US and China ended and ahead of today's US CPI. US10y around 4.47% and EUR/USD at 1.14. Asian equities are trading mostly in green this morning with Hang Seng +1.0% while futures indicate a negative opening. EUR/SEK ignored the activity data and the Riksbank company survey and thus remains stuck just below 11.00. Benign inflation data pulled Norwegian short rates lower and weighed on the NOK.